Gold price on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

The implied Fed Funds Rate from March 2026 SOFR futures is unavailable. Determining the precise implied terminal Fed Funds Rate from the March 2026 SOFR futures contract is not possible with the provided research. While CME Group, TradingView, and MarketWatch reference quotes for the Three-Month SOFR March 2026 contract, the specific numerical price or the resulting implied rate is not explicitly stated in their titles or descriptions ^[1]. The standard calculation to approximate the 3-month SOFR rate, which tracks the effective Fed Funds Rate, typically involves subtracting the futures contract price from 100.

Federal Reserve's SEP projections for 2025 and long-run are not explicit. Similarly, the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) does not explicitly provide the exact numerical median projections for the federal funds rate for year-end 2025 or the long-run rate within the text of the source titles or descriptions. Relevant sources, including the March 2026 FOMC projections table, FRED Blog discussions, and a blog post referencing the Fed Dot Plot, do not explicitly state these specific values ^[2]. Although a FRED series for the longer-run median projection is identified, its value is also not explicitly stated ^[3]. Accessing the full content of these external resources would be necessary to obtain these precise data points.

The aggregate net change in gold reserves decelerated considerably for the central banks of China (PBoC), India (RBI), and Turkey over the last four reported quarters. From December 2023 to December 2024, these central banks collectively increased their gold reserves by a net 65.2 tonnes ^[1]. This represents a significant slowdown compared to the preceding four-quarter period, from December 2022 to December 2023, when their combined net increase was 200.0 tonnes ^[1].

China's PBoC was the primary driver of accumulation in the earlier period. Between December 2022 and December 2023, the PBoC increased its gold reserves by 224.9 tonnes. India's RBI also contributed, adding 16.2 tonnes. In contrast, Turkey's gold reserves experienced a net decrease of 41.1 tonnes during this time, resulting in the stated combined net positive change of 200.0 tonnes for the three central banks ^[1].

The latest period shows varied activity, reflecting an overall slowdown in gold accumulation. From December 2023 to December 2024, the PBoC's pace of accumulation slowed considerably, adding 28.9 tonnes. However, India's RBI accelerated its purchases, increasing its gold reserves by 42.2 tonnes. Turkey continued its reduction, with a net sale of 5.9 tonnes. The aggregate net change for this most recent period was 65.2 tonnes, highlighting a notable slowdown in overall gold accumulation by these central banks compared to the previous year ^[1].

Managed Money's current net position in COMEX Gold is moderate. The net position of 'Managed Money' in COMEX Gold futures, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, is currently fluctuating within a moderate range. This positioning is generally above 20% ^[1]. It is notably lower than the extreme levels observed before the August 2020 gold price peak, yet it generally aligns more closely with or is slightly higher than the levels seen prior to the March 2022 peak ^[1].

Gold peaks show varied Managed Money positioning extremes. Ahead of the August 2020 gold price peak, 'Managed Money' net positioning reached approximately 35-40% of total open interest ^[1]. In contrast, prior to the March 2022 gold price peak, positioning was relatively lower, appearing to be in the range of approximately 20-25% of total open interest ^[1].

The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) premium or discount against the LBMA spot price is a vital gauge of China's physical gold demand. Real-time figures for April 2026 and the preceding three months (January-March 2026) are generally available from specialized gold market data services, with sources such as "China Gold Price | Shanghai Premium vs US Spot" tracking this relationship ^[1]. Pricing details necessary for calculating or directly reporting these premiums are found in daily SGE reports, including data for January 20, 2026 ^[3], and comprehensive market analyses for dates like April 6 and 7, 2026 ^[4], ^[5].

China's gold market experienced a robust "strong start to 2026" ^[2], supporting a stable SGE premium. This strong demand environment typically leads to an elevated or consistent SGE premium, as increased physical gold purchases in China tend to raise local prices relative to international benchmarks. Continuous monitoring of this premium, often depicted through specialized charts, helps assess whether demand has consistently strengthened, remained stable, or moderated during the January-March 2026 period ^[1].

The SGE premium serves as a key proxy for the strength of physical gold demand in China ^[1]. A positive and sustained premium signals robust local buying interest, often driven by consumer purchases, investment activity, or central bank acquisitions. Conversely, a discount or a narrowing premium would indicate reduced domestic demand. The "strong start to 2026" cited in market updates suggests healthy physical demand in China throughout early 2026 ^[2].

The 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate could not be determined. The specific 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, derived from the spread between 2-Year U.S. Treasury yields and 2-Year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), was not explicitly provided in the accessed sources. While breakeven inflation rates for other maturities, such as the 5-Year ^[1], 10-Year ^[2], and 20-Year ^[3], were mentioned as available, the direct 2-year rate was absent. General interest rate statistics and daily treasury rates from the U.S. Department of the Treasury ^[4], along with data from other providers for 2-Year Treasury rates ^[5], also did not yield this specific metric.

Breakeven inflation reflects market expectations against the Fed's target. The breakeven inflation rate serves as a market-derived expectation of the average annual inflation rate over a given period. It is typically calculated by subtracting the yield of a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) from the yield of a nominal Treasury security of the same maturity. The Federal Reserve aims for a long-run average inflation rate of 2%, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. However, without the current 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, it is not possible to assess whether this particular rate is trending above or below the Federal Reserve's target based on the available research.