Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the WTI oil price to be $62 to 62.99 on February 13, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market, which resolves based on the WTI oil price finishing above $67.99, exhibits a clear long-term downward trend. The market opened with a 14.0% probability, saw a period of significant optimism where the price peaked above 30%, and is now trading at a low of 2.0%. The most critical price movement occurred on February 12, 2026, when the market experienced a 24 percentage point drop, plummeting from a recent high of 31.0% down to 7.0%. This event shattered the previous support level around the 30% mark, which had served as a focal point for trading activity. The current price near 2.0% represents a new floor, indicating traders see an extremely low probability of the contract resolving to YES.
The significant price swings are directly attributable to news events impacting broader oil price expectations. The mid-period strength, where the price climbed above 30%, was driven by bullish catalysts such as the heightened geopolitical tensions reported on February 10, which pushed crude prices into the mid-$60s and fueled speculation that the rally could continue past the $67.99 strike price. However, the subsequent collapse on February 12 was a direct market reaction to economic announcements indicating that oil prices were instead declining toward the $62-$62.99 range. This news effectively nullified the probability of the price reaching above $67.99, causing the sharp sell-off.
Volume patterns underscore the shifts in market conviction. Trading volume was notably higher during the price peak, as seen in sample data, suggesting active debate and uncertainty when the outcome was in question. The total traded volume of 20,887 contracts indicates a moderately liquid market over its lifetime. However, recent volume has diminished significantly as the price approached zero, implying that most participants now have a strong conviction that the price will not exceed $67.99 and consider the market effectively decided. The chart's price action reflects a complete reversal of market sentiment, from a period of speculative optimism to a current state of overwhelming bearish consensus.
  • IEA/EIA consensus signaled significant global oil oversupply through 2026.
  • U.S. oil majors projected substantial upstream capacity additions by 2026.
  • BloombergNEF forecast structurally weakening global oil demand from energy transition.
  • Oil markets anticipated a persistent global supply glut throughout early 2026.
  • WTI futures on Feb 13 indicated an expected 2026 supply surplus.

Current Context

Current systems cannot provide future WTI oil price predictions. This research output indicates an inability to furnish real-time information or make predictions concerning WTI oil prices for February 13, 2026. Specifically, the system cannot identify recent news and developments leading up to that date, key data points people would be looking for, expert opinions being cited at that time, upcoming events or deadlines, or common questions and concerns specific to February 13, 2026.
Future information necessitates consulting sources closer to the date. This limitation stems from the system's knowledge cutoff and its inability to foresee future news, discussions, or market-relevant events. Therefore, to obtain accurate and current information regarding WTI oil prices for February 13, 2026, it is necessary to consult news sources and financial data providers closer to or on the actual date.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: $63 to 63.99

📈 February 13, 2026: 27.0pp spike

Price increased from 33.0% to 60.0%

What happened: The significant upward movement in the prediction market for WTI oil price settling between $63 and $63.99 on February 13, 2026, was primarily driven by a swift reintroduction of geopolitical risk [1]. Despite bearish traditional news, including the International Energy Agency lowering its 2026 oil demand forecast and a massive build in U.S [2]. crude inventories, renewed tensions in the Middle East provided an offsetting upward pressure [3]. Specifically, while U.S [4]. President Trump's earlier remarks on February 12 hinted at a potential deal with Iran, subsequent reports on February 13 of the U.S [5]. sending a second aircraft carrier to the region quickly revived concerns over supply disruptions [6]. This geopolitical development, a traditional news announcement, likely caused the prediction market to rally towards the $63-$63.99 range by limiting further downside risk from the bearish economic and supply data [1]. Social media was not the primary driver of this price movement [2].

Outcome: $62 to 62.99

📈 February 12, 2026: 37.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 39.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 37.0 percentage point spike in the "WTI oil price on Feb 13, 2026?" prediction market for the "$62 to 62.99" outcome on February 12, 2026, was a combination of traditional news and economic announcements indicating a decline in WTI crude oil prices into that specific range [7]. On February 12, WTI crude oil prices fell to settle between $62.69 and $62.84, directly aligning with the prediction market's target outcome [8]. This decline was primarily driven by the International Energy Agency (IEA) cutting its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 due to economic uncertainties, a significant build in U.S [9]. crude inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and a reduction in geopolitical risk premium as U.S.-Iran tensions eased [10]. There was no evidence of social media activity being a primary driver or contributing accelerant to this specific prediction market price movement [11].

Outcome: $65 to 65.99

📈 February 11, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 15.0% to 29.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the WTI oil prediction market price spike on February 11, 2026, was escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran [12]. Reports of potential U.S [13]. military action against Iran, new sanctions, and considerations of seizing Iranian crude tankers fueled supply disruption concerns, overriding a significant increase in U.S [14]. crude inventories [15]. WTI crude prices climbed to around $65.29 per barrel that day, aligning with the prediction market's "$65 to 65.99" outcome [16]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver of this specific price movement, with traditional news outlets heavily covering the geopolitical developments [17].

Outcome: $64 to 64.99

📈 February 10, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 23.0% to 33.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for WTI oil reaching "$64 to 64.99" on February 10, 2026, was heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [18]. News reports from that day indicated that crude prices, including WTI, climbed above $64 a barrel, building on previous gains, due to new US warnings advising American-flagged vessels to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz, thereby adding a risk premium to global benchmarks [19]. This traditional news directly coincided with the market movement, making the specified price range more probable [20]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as a primary or contributing factor to this price surge [18]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant in driving this particular prediction market price movement [19].

Outcome: $61 to 61.99

📉 February 09, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 25.0% to 11.0%

What happened: The 14.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market outcome "$61 to 61.99" for WTI oil on February 9, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news and geopolitical developments that caused WTI prices to rise above this range [21]. On February 9, 2026, WTI crude oil prices closed up significantly at $64.36, representing a +2.24% change [22]. This upward movement was largely influenced by the U.S [21]. advising ships to steer clear of the Strait of Hormuz, which boosted the risk premium for crude prices [22]. This move higher pushed WTI prices away from the $61-$61.99 bracket, consequently decreasing the probability of the market settling within that specific outcome by February 13, 2026 [21]. Social media activity was irrelevant as the primary driver of this price movement based on the available information [22].
Sources (22)
  1. 1spragueenergy.com
  2. 2fxempire.com
  3. 3futunn.comnews.futunn.com
  4. 4ing.comthink.ing.com
  5. 5energynow.com
  6. 6rigzone.com
  7. 7globalbankingandfinance.com
  8. 8oaoa.com
  9. 9fidelity.com
  10. 10rigzone.com
  11. 11dtnpf.com
  12. 12fxleaders.com
  13. 13seekingalpha.com
  14. 14rigzone.com
  15. 15sharecafe.com.au
  16. 16angelone.in
  17. 17asianetnews.comnewsable.asianetnews.com
  18. 18fxleaders.com
  19. 19angelone.in
  20. 20graincentral.com
  21. 21investing.com
  22. 22tradingview.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The provided page content, "WTI oil price on Friday? Odds & Predictions 2026," is a market title and does not contain the detailed contract rules necessary to determine the triggers for YES or NO resolution, specific key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. It only indicates the market relates to the WTI oil price on a Friday in 2026.

Market Discussion

Discussions and debates surrounding WTI oil prices on February 13, 2026, are predominantly bearish, driven by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of a record global oil surplus of approximately 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026, coupled with surging U.S [1]. crude inventories and a lowered global demand outlook [2]. This downward pressure is exacerbated by a perceived easing of geopolitical tensions with Iran, reducing the associated risk premium [3]. Despite this, some expert forecasts project a higher average WTI price for 2026 (e.g., BMI at $64.00/bbl and Standard Chartered at $59.90/bbl), and prediction markets on Coinbase indicated significant interest in prices ranging from $63 to $65 for the day [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1seekingalpha.com
  2. 2fxempire.com
  3. 3spragueenergy.com
  4. 4investing.com

5. What is the Global Oil Market Balance and WTI Price Outlook?

Q4 2025 Market Surplus2.6 million bpd (EIA [1])
2026 Annual Market SurplusOver 3.7 million bpd (IEA [2])
2026 Brent Price Forecast$58 per barrel (EIA [1])
The IEA and EIA consensus projects a significant global oil market oversupply from late 2025 throughout 2026. This outlook indicates a structural imbalance that will exert substantial downward pressure on crude oil prices. Specifically, the EIA forecasts a surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) for Q4 2025, with global supply reaching 108.3 million bpd against demand of 104.5 million bpd [1]. For the entirety of 2026, which includes Q1 2026, the IEA anticipates a historic daily surplus potentially exceeding 3.7 million bpd, signaling a prolonged period of market oversupply [2].
This imbalance stems from modest demand growth against robust supply increases. The primary drivers are a projected slowdown in global oil demand growth coupled with a significant increase in supply. The IEA forecasts global oil demand to grow by only 850,000 bpd in 2026, largely driven by non-OECD economies. Simultaneously, global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.4 million bpd in 2026, with growth evenly sourced from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers [2]. This fundamental outlook has led the EIA to project Brent crude oil prices averaging $58 per barrel in 2026, further declining to $53 per barrel in 2027 [1].
Several key risks could alter the projected market oversupply. While the consensus points to a bearish market, potential deviations from this outlook include a decisive OPEC+ intervention involving substantial production cuts, major geopolitical disruptions impacting supply, stronger-than-expected global economic growth boosting demand, or underperformance in U.S. shale production [2]. However, without such significant shifts from the current forecasted path, the market is positioned for continued oversupply and discounted prices.
Sources (2)
  1. 1EIA Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
  2. 2IEA Oil Market Reportiea.org

6. What Upstream Oil & Gas Capacity Expansion Is Projected by Early 2026?

ExxonMobil Projected Capacity Additions620,000-670,000 boe/d (from Guyana & Permian) [1]
Chevron 2024 CapEx Budget$15.5-16.5 billion [2]
Saudi Aramco Oil Capacity TargetMaintain 12 MMbpd MSC (Expansion halted) [3]
U.S. oil majors project significant upstream capacity additions by 2026. ExxonMobil has guided annual capital expenditures of $23 billion to $25 billion for 2024, with approximately 70% directed towards upstream activities [4]. Chevron committed to a 2024 capital expenditure budget ranging from $15.5 billion to $16.5 billion [2]. These investments primarily target high-return projects in key regions such as Guyana and the U.S. Permian Basin. ExxonMobil alone is expected to contribute approximately 620,000-670,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) of gross capacity, predominantly from its Payara and Yellowtail projects in Guyana, which are anticipated to ramp up through 2025 [1].
European majors balance hydrocarbon growth with low-carbon investments. While U.S. companies prioritize upstream hydrocarbon growth, European counterparts like TotalEnergies and Shell are pursuing a more diversified investment strategy. TotalEnergies projects a net investment budget of $17-18 billion for 2024, with roughly two-thirds allocated to oil and gas projects [5]. This approach contributes to a varied growth profile that incorporates both conventional energy and low-carbon ventures.
Saudi Aramco halted oil expansion, redirecting capital to maintenance and gas. A notable shift in the global supply landscape occurred when Saudi Aramco received a government directive in early 2024 to maintain its Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) at 12 million barrels per day [3]. This decision has led to the redirection of substantial capital towards sustaining existing capacity and developing gas fields, such as Jafurah, instead of expanding oil production [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1reuters.com
  2. 2chevron.com
  3. 3aramco.com
  4. 4corporate.exxonmobil.com
  5. 5totalenergies.com

7. What Does BloombergNEF Project for Global Oil Demand in 2026?

Global Oil Demand 2026105.0 mb/d
Projected Supply Surplus 20263.3 mb/d
Global Oil Demand Peak Forecast2032 at 104 mb/d
Global oil demand faces structural weakening from energy transition. BloombergNEF (BNEF) forecasts global oil demand to be 105.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, accompanied by a steady supply surplus of 3.3 mb/d, indicating a significant supply glut. This structural weakening is primarily attributed to an accelerating energy transition within the road transport and power sectors. The global electric vehicle (EV) fleet currently displaces approximately 1.8 mb/d of oil, a figure projected to double by 2027 and triple by 2029. Oil demand from passenger cars peaked in 2025, with total oil demand from all road transport expected to peak around 2027.
EV adoption and renewables significantly reduce oil demand. Rapid electric vehicle adoption stands as the most significant and quantifiable factor reducing oil demand. The global EV market share in new passenger vehicle sales is anticipated to exceed 30% in 2026, contributing to China's domestic oil demand having already peaked due to its successful EV market. Beyond EVs, the record 800 gigawatts of solar and wind installed globally in 2025, which tripled annual deployment rates since 2021, indirectly reinforces oil displacement by reducing the operational hours of oil-fired power plants. This sustained pressure from accelerating EV adoption and renewable energy growth suggests a structurally declining oil demand scenario, establishing a strong bearish fundamental anchor for WTI oil price prediction markets due to the persistent 3.3 mb/d supply glut. However, the provided research does not include a comparison of this displacement forecast to projections made in early 2024.

8. How Will Post-Election US Sanctions Impact Q4 2025 WTI Prices?

Downside WTI Price Risk (2025)Toward $40 per barrel (Eurasia Group) [1]
Projected Iranian Crude Exports (Q4 2024)Over 2.2 million bpd (S&P Global assumes sustained) [2]
Venezuela Near-Term Production Potential1.2-1.4 million bpd within two years [3]
Global oil markets anticipate a persistent supply glut through 2026. Projections indicate a decidedly bearish market through Q4 2025 and into early 2026, primarily due to this significant and persistent oversupply overriding most geopolitical or policy-driven bullish catalysts [1]. Political risk analysis suggests a high implicit probability of continued crude exports from Iran and Venezuela, regardless of the 2024 US Presidential election outcome, as market fundamentals are seen as the dominant price driver [1]. Even a potentially more hawkish U.S. administration post-election would likely be constrained by these market realities, finding it difficult to effectively curtail exports without causing price volatility that conflicts with domestic economic priorities [1]. A major U.S.-Iran escalation remains the primary bullish wildcard, but is considered a low-probability, high-impact event [1].
Increased supply from key producers is driving the market oversupply. Key contributors include resilient Iranian exports, which reached over 2.2 million bpd in Q4 2024 and are assumed to be sustained [2]. Additionally, potential Venezuelan crude recovery could add approximately 1.2-1.4 million bpd within two years of relief [3]. U.S. energy production is also a significant factor, currently at record highs and expected to reach or exceed 14 million bpd [1]. This confluence of supply factors is anticipated to exert substantial downward pressure on WTI prices.
Oil price forecasts show a significant decline into 2026. Forecasts for WTI prices in Q4 2025 and early 2026 vary but trend significantly lower. Eurasia Group projects crude to fall to or below $60 per barrel in 2025, with a severe downside risk pushing toward $40 per barrel if OPEC+ unwinds voluntary cuts [1]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts WTI to average $53 per barrel in 2026 [1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1TOP-RISKS-2025sipotra.it
  2. 2S&P Global Commodity Insightsspglobal.com
  3. 3JPMorgan Global Researchjpmorgan.com

9. What Does WTI Crude Oil Market Signal for 2026?

WTI Futures Curve (2026 Strip)$60–$62 per barrel (contango) [1]
Commercial Traders Open InterestNet short ~152,000 contracts [2]
Non-Commercial Traders Open InterestNet long ~125,000 contracts [2]
As of February 13, 2026, WTI futures indicate an expected 2026 supply surplus. The front-end of the futures curve shows mild backwardation, with approximately a 20-cent premium for the front-month contract, suggesting balanced near-term physical market conditions [3]. However, the broader 2026 strip has flattened into contango, with prices ranging from $60–$62 per barrel. This structure signals market expectations of rising inventories and an oversupplied physical market [1], with prices notably below the breakeven costs for many new US shale wells [1].
Commercial traders anticipate price declines, reinforcing a bearish outlook. The Commitment of Traders report further supports this, showing commercial traders holding a substantial net short position of approximately 152,000 contracts. This indicates strong hedging against anticipated price declines [2]. In contrast, non-commercial traders (speculators) hold a net long position of about 125,000 contracts, reflecting a moderately bullish sentiment, though this is outweighed by the significant commercial hedging pressure [2].
Market consensus points to a structurally oversupplied 2026 environment. Synthesizing these indicators, the market overwhelmingly anticipates this situation will lead to sustained low prices. The contango structure combined with the commercial net short positioning acts as a consensus forecast for excess barrels entering storage. This outlook could lead to a slowdown in US shale drilling activity if prices remain below $65 per barrel, potentially serving as a rebalancing mechanism for the market.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Oil Market Braces for Contango as Shale Output Surgesfinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2cftc.gov
  3. 3x.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Market Settlement Status

The prediction market titled "WTI oil price on Feb 13, 2026?" with a settlement date of 2026-02-13T19:30:00Z has already settled. This means the outcome of the market has been definitively determined by the actual WTI oil price at the specified settlement time.
Due to this past settlement, there are no future catalysts or events that could significantly change the outcome of this specific prediction market. Any identification of bullish or bearish catalysts or a timeline of future events is no longer relevant for altering the settled result.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: February 13, 2026
  • Expiration: February 21, 2026
  • Closes: February 13, 2026

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 47 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXWTIW-26FEB06-T67.99: NO (Feb 06, 2026)
  • KXWTIW-26FEB06-T51: NO (Feb 06, 2026)
  • KXWTIW-26FEB06-B67.5: NO (Feb 06, 2026)
  • KXWTIW-26FEB06-B66.5: NO (Feb 06, 2026)
  • KXWTIW-26FEB06-B65.5: NO (Feb 06, 2026)