IN-09 House (2028)
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Republican victory remains likely, underpinned by the district's R+15 Cook PVI. Incumbent Rep. Houchin's 2026 reelection and fundraising reinforce the Republican lean. * Houchin's potential 2028 statewide bid may create an open seat.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 11.0% | 19.0% | Rep. Houchin's 2026 victory margin was narrower, and she may not seek reelection to the House. |
| Republican party | 39.0% | 81.0% | IN-09 is a reliably Republican district with an R+15 Cook PVI and Rep. Houchin won reelection in 2026. |
Current Context
Sources (17)
- 1IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 3House Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
- 4Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2028 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Indiana Ninth Congressional District Election Resultsnytimes.com
- 6Republican Erin Houchin wins reelection to U.S. House in Indiana's 9th Congressional Districtapnews.com
- 7Houchin wins reelection in Indiana’s 9th Congressional District - The Republic Newstherepublic.com
- 8Erin Houchin - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 9Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2026 (May 5 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 102026 Indiana US House 9 General Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 11Will Republicans Win the IN-09 House Race in 2026? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 12Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 13Voter guide: Meet the Hoosiers running for Congressindystar.com
- 14ELECTED OFFICIALS AND SCHOOL BOARDin.gov
- 15VOTER REGISTRATION ELECTED OFFICIALS AND SCHOOL BOARDin.gov
- 16All INdiana Politics: Indiana Democrats make gains in...wrtv.com
- 17https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/in-09-house-election-winnerpolymarket.copilot.markets
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 November 08, 2026: 56.9pp drop
Price decreased from 95.9% to 39.0%
Outcome: Republican party
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market predicts the winning party for the IN-09 U.S. House of Representatives election in 2028. A 'YES' contract for a specific party resolves as true if that party's candidate officially wins the election for Indiana's 9th congressional district, while a 'NO' contract resolves as true if that party's candidate does not win. The election date is around November 7, 2028, with a maximum payout date of November 7, 2029.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican party | $0.87 | $0.21 | 39% |
| Democratic party | $0.12 | $0.90 | 11% |
Market Discussion
The market for the 2028 IN-09 House race currently shows the Republican Party at 89% and the Democratic Party at 11%, reflecting a 7.9-point shift toward Democrats [1]. While the district holds a Solid Republican rating (R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index) and has not elected a Democrat since 2010, the Cook Political Report shifted the district onto the House battlefield in late October 2026, suggesting increased competitiveness concerns [2]. Future market movement could be influenced by factors such as incumbent Erin Houchin pursuing a statewide bid, a well-funded Democratic recruit, or redistricting challenges [2].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What political developments, such as a 2028 statewide bid by Rep. Erin Houchin, could create an open-seat scenario in IN-09?
| Houchin 2026 Reelection Vote Share | Roughly 54–55% [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| IN-09 2028 Republican Win Probability | 89% [4][5] |
| Indiana 2028 Senate Seat Class | Class 2 [6] |
Sources (14)
- 1Houchin wins reelection in Indiana's 9th Congressional...therepublic.com
- 2Erin Houchin secures third term representing southern...wlky.com
- 3Houchin wins third term in Congress convincinglyipm.org
- 4IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 6Indiana Politics: Elections, Candidates & Officeholders | Politics1politics1.com
- 7Indiana elections, 2028ballotpedia.org
- 8Indiana 2026: No Governor Race — Braun Just Won, But IN-5 Is Competitiveuspollingdata.com
- 9Braun grew reelection cash while joining others in bankrolling redistricting revenge • Indiana Capital Chronicleindianacapitalchronicle.com
- 10Braun grew reelection cash while joining others in bankrolling redistricting revengewthitv.com
- 11Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 12All INdiana Politics: Indiana Democrats make gains in...wrtv.com
- 13Two major Election Day developments can help improve...indianacapitalchronicle.com
- 14Indiana Democrats broke the Republicans' supermajority at...wfyi.org
7. How does IN-09's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index align with its actual presidential and congressional election results from 2020 through 2026?
| IN-09 Cook PVI | R+15 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Presidential Republican Margin | 29.9 points (Trump 64.1%, Harris 34.2%) [4][5] |
| 2026 House Republican Margin | 10.7 points (Erin Houchin 54.1%, Brad Meyer 43.4%) [6] |
Sources (7)
- 12026 Cook PVI℠: District Map and Listcookpolitical.com
- 2The 2026 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)cookpolitical.com
- 3IN-09 2026cookpolitical.com
- 4Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 5Indiana's 9th congressional districten.wikipedia.org
- 6Indiana Ninth Congressional District Election Resultsnytimes.com
- 7Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2022ballotpedia.org
8. How does Rep. Houchin's 2026 fundraising compare to the financial benchmarks required for a viable Democratic challenge in 2028?
| 2026 Cycle-to-date Receipts | $2,229,479.01 (as of September 30, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Cash on Hand | $928,735.90 (as of October 14, 2026) [2] |
| 2026 Receipts from Committees | $1,273,931.39 [2] |
Sources (5)
- 1FEC Disclosure Form 3 for HOUCHIN FOR CONGRESSdocquery.fec.gov
- 2HOUCHIN, ERIN - Candidate overviewfec.gov
- 3Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2024ballotpedia.org
- 4IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
9. What are the key candidate filing and FEC reporting deadlines for the 2028 Indiana election cycle?
| 2028 Indiana General Election Date | November 7, 2028 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Expected 2028 Primary Filing Deadline | Early February 2028 [4] |
| FEC Statement of Candidacy Filing | Within 15 days after becoming a candidate (raising/spending >$5,000) [5][6][7] |
Sources (10)
- 1Election Day: Frequently Asked Questionscongress.gov
- 2United States House of Representatives elections, 2028ballotpedia.org
- 3Indiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2028ballotpedia.org
- 4Filing requirements for congressional candidatesballotpedia.org
- 5Registering a candidatefec.gov
- 6House, Senate and presidential candidate registrationfec.gov
- 7Dates and deadlinesfec.gov
- 8Indiana state legislative districtsballotpedia.org
- 92028 Election United States House - Indiana - District 07fec.gov
- 10Indiana's 9th Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
10. What national political environment in 2028, as measured by the generic congressional ballot, would be necessary to shift IN-09 from 'Solid' to 'Leans Republican'?
| Generic Ballot Lead for IN-09 Shift | Stronger than D+8.8 to D+11 (2026 cycle) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Democratic Generic Ballot Lead | D+8.8 (Nate Silver's average) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
| IN-09 2026 Rating & Margin | Solid Republican / R+11 win for Erin Houchin [7][8][9][1] |
Sources (13)
- 12026 CPR House Race ratingscookpolitical.com
- 2House Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Who's ahead on the generic congressional ballot?natesilver.net
- 4Trump approval near career low ahead of elections, Reuters/Ipsos...reuters.com
- 5Poll: Voters demand change and a check on Trump, fueling a steep...nbcnews.com
- 6Are the US midterms going to see a blue wave of Democrats winning seatstheguardian.com
- 7Indiana Ninth Congressional District Election Resultsnytimes.com
- 82026 Indiana 9th District House Forecast | Election Odds &...pollsmax.com
- 9Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 10Cook Political Report shifts 12 more House races toward...thehill.com
- 11The House: 28 Rating Changes Push Number of Seats at Least Leaning to...centerforpolitics.org
- 12IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 13IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts for IN-09 2028
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 07, 2029
- Closes: November 07, 2029
Sources (6)
- 1IN-09 House winner? (2028) Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Indiana's 9th District? - Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Republican Erin Houchin wins reelection to U.S. House in Indiana's 9th Congressional Districtapnews.com
- 4Indiana Ninth Congressional District Election Resultsnytimes.com
- 52026 United States House of Representatives elections in Indianaen.wikipedia.org
- 6Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2028 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHOUSERACE-MN05-26-DJAC: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-CGET: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXHOUSERACE-NE01-26-AAHL: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-MMAC: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXHOUSERACE-CA06-26-KKIL: NO (Nov 04, 2026)