Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for the WI-03 House winner, with the Democratic party at 60.4% model probability versus 76.0% market probability. This suggests the market may be overestimating the Democratic party's chances despite recent polling and fundraising advantages for their challenger.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market's price action has been entirely static. The probability of a Democratic win has remained unchanged at 76.0% since the market's inception, with no price movements, spikes, or drops recorded. The overall trend is perfectly sideways, indicating a complete lack of volatility. The price of 76.0% has served as the market's only price point, effectively acting as both support and resistance by default, as no trading has occurred at any other level.
The market shows extremely low liquidity and trader conviction, with a total volume of only 6 contracts traded over its entire history. This minimal activity suggests that the current price does not necessarily reflect a broad or active consensus. While the chart indicates a strong sentiment favoring a Democratic victory, this high probability is not being actively tested or confirmed by new trading. This contrasts with external information; other prediction markets reportedly show a much closer contest, and the Cook Political Report rates the race as a "Toss Up." The lack of volume suggests this market's price may not have incorporated this more competitive outlook.
  • Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke appears to lead Van Orden in recent polls.
  • Cooke significantly outraised Van Orden in Q1 2026, holding larger cash reserves.
  • The Cook Political Report shifted the WI-03 race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."
  • The district maintains an R+3 Cook PVI; former President Trump won it in 2024.
  • The Jun 1 filing deadline and Aug 11 primary are key upcoming catalysts.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Democratic party 76.0% 60.4% Recent polls show Rebecca Cooke leading, with the Cook Political Report shifting the race to 'Toss Up'.
Republican party 29.0% 39.6% Incumbent Derrick Van Orden benefits from the R+3 Cook PVI and former President Trump's 2024 district win.

Current Context

Democrats are currently favored in the Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District House race. Prediction markets indicate Democrats as the frontrunner for the WI-03 House winner, with one instance showing them at 54% against Republicans at 36%, and another reporting 51% for Democrats versus 47% for Republicans [1][2]. These markets are expected to resolve around November 4, 2026 [1][2]. Reflecting a competitive environment, the Cook Political Report rates Wisconsin’s WI-03 House race as a "Toss Up" [3]. This rating marks a shift for the district, which previously moved from "Lean Republican" to its current "Toss Up" status, with incumbent Derrick Van Orden (R) listed as a candidate [3][4].
A recent poll indicates a tight contest, with key election dates approaching. A poll released by WisPolitics on March 26, 2026, reported challenger Rebecca Cooke leading incumbent Derrick Van Orden 49–48 in a WI-03 matchup, with 3% of voters undecided [5]. The Wisconsin election calendar outlines important upcoming dates for the 2026 cycle [6]. The deadline for candidates seeking partisan offices to file is June 2, 2026, followed by a fall partisan primary on August 11, 2026 [6][3][7]. The general election, when U.S. House seats are decided, is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [6][3][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1WI-03 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketworldcoin.polymarket.com
  2. 2WI-03 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 3WI-03 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  4. 4Wisconsin’s 3rd District Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  5. 5Cooke campaign: Leading Derrick Van Orden in new poll - WisPoliticswispolitics.com
  6. 6The 2026 Wisconsin elections calendar - Isthmus | Madison, Wisconsinisthmus.com
  7. 7Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026 (August 11 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if the House member sworn in for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party; a "No" resolution occurs otherwise. The Library of Congress verifies the outcome. The market opened on July 1, 2025, and will close after the outcome occurs, or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 am EDT, with insider trading prohibited for specific individuals and groups.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democratic party $0.76 $0.29 76%
Republican party $0.29 $0.76 29%

Market Discussion

Traders are discussing the incumbent Republican, Derrick Van Orden's, chances against a potential Democratic challenger, with Rebecca Cooke specifically mentioned. Arguments for the Democratic party winning focus on the incumbent's "underperforming" record and the possibility of a "tougher year" for his party. Arguments for the Republican party acknowledge the incumbent's advantage, suggesting a "tough battle" for Democrats. The market strongly favors a Democratic win with a 76% probability.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 77 Good

Largest single print on HOUSEWI3-26-D carried 44% of its $41,912 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 5d old)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score52Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
82Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on HOUSEWI3-26-D carried 44% of its $41,912 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 5d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
64Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

Derrick Van Orden57
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Rebecca Cooke65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Rebecca Cooke—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Derrick Van Orden—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Rebecca Cooke100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Derrick Van Orden100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
52Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 64 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.0c slippage (~1% of a 72c contract)

$1,000 order: 4.8c slippage (~7% of a 72c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Rebecca Cooke65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Derrick Van Orden57Market scoreLiquidity57Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 57
Liquidity
57 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. How do incumbent Derrick Van Orden's and challenger Rebecca Cooke's fundraising totals compare ahead of the August 2026 primary?

Cooke Q1 2026 Fundraising$2,426,073 (Q1 2026) [1]
Van Orden Q1 2026 Fundraising$931,453 (Q1 2026) [1]
Cooke Cash on Hand (April 2026)$4,424,629 (entering April 2026) [1]
Rebecca Cooke significantly outraised Derrick Van Orden in early 2026. For Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, a contest identified as a "toss-up" by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report [2], challenger Rebecca Cooke notably outraised incumbent Derrick Van Orden in the first quarter of 2026. Between January 1 and March 31, Cooke reported raising $2,426,073 and began April 2026 with $4,424,629 in cash on hand. In contrast, Van Orden reported $931,453 in receipts during the same period, holding $2,734,726 in cash on hand as of April [1]. Other reports also indicated Cooke's first-quarter fundraising surpassed $2.4 million with over $4.4 million in cash on hand, while Van Orden's receipts exceeded $1.3 million with approximately $3.8 million in cash on hand [2].
Van Orden led overall 2025 fundraising, but Cooke showed strong late momentum. Over the entire 2025 calendar year, Van Orden raised more than $4.3 million for the 2026 election cycle, slightly exceeding Cooke's total of just over $4 million by year-end [3][4]. However, Cooke demonstrated significant fundraising momentum in the final quarter of 2025, collecting $1.1 million, which meant she outraised Van Orden by more than $200,000 for that specific quarter [2][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1quiverquant.com
  2. 2notus.org
  3. 3thebadgerproject.org
  4. 4thebadgerproject.org
  5. 5wispolitics.com

6. What polling data and district-level analysis support the Cook Political Report's rating shift for WI-03 from 'Lean Republican' to 'Toss Up' for the 2026 cycle?

Cook Political Report RatingShifted WI-03 to 'Toss Up' for 2026 cycle (Cook Political Report, April 29, 2025) [1]
Cooke's Early 2026 Fundraising$1M raised in her first three weeks (Cook Political Report, April 29, 2025) [1][2]
Polymarket 2026 OutlookDemocrats as frontrunner, ~51-54% for WI-03 winner (Polymarket) [3][4]
The Cook Political Report reclassified WI-03 to a Toss Up [1]. On April 29, 2025, the rating for Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District was shifted from 'Lean Republican' to 'Toss Up' for the 2026 cycle [1]. This change was attributed to several factors, including incumbent Derrick Van Orden's narrow re-election in 2024, former President Trump's performance in the district in 2024, Rebecca Cooke's significant early fundraising for 2026, and broader Democratic gains in Wisconsin [1][2]. This assessment also factored in subsequent polling that indicated Cooke was competitive or leading [1][2]. An earlier DCCC polling memo from July 2024 had already highlighted Van Orden's vulnerability, reporting a near tie with a generic Democrat among likely 2024 voters and a double-digit deficit among independents [5].
Recent 2026 polling reinforces the competitive outlook for WI-03. An October 20, 2025, House Majority PAC district poll reported Rebecca Cooke leading Derrick Van Orden in a head-to-head matchup, noting voter concerns over issues such as a pardoning matter and the economy/tariffs [6]. Furthermore, a poll linked to the Cooke campaign, released on March 26, 2026, showed Cooke leading Van Orden 49–48, with Cooke's favorability at +7 (39–32) and Van Orden's underwater at -7 (43–50). This specific poll also indicated Van Orden trailing significantly among independents [7]. Polymarket data for the 2026 midterms consistently positions Democrats as the frontrunner for the WI-03 winner, with probabilities ranging around 51-54% [7][3][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Wisconsin’s 3rd District Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2WI-03 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  3. 3WI-03 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4WI-03 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketworldcoin.polymarket.com
  5. 5DCCC Polling Memo: WI-03dccc.org
  6. 6New HMP Polling Shows Rebecca Cooke Leading Derrick Van Orden in WI-03  | House Majority PACthehousemajoritypac.com
  7. 7Cooke campaign: Leading Derrick Van Orden in new poll - WisPoliticswispolitics.com

7. Which potential primary challengers could emerge against Derrick Van Orden before the June 2, 2026 filing deadline, and how might that affect the Republican party's general election chances?

Republican Primary Challenger StatusNo declared challengers as of May 10, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Filing Deadline for ChallengersJune 1, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Van Orden's Chance of Winning WI-0369% [6]
Derrick Van Orden faces no declared Republican primary challengers thus far. As of May 10, 2026, incumbent Derrick Van Orden is seeking re-election for Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District without any declared Republican opposition, with the candidate filing deadline set for June 1, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. The Republican primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026 [7][8]. Should challengers emerge, they might adopt more extreme positions to appeal to the party's base, which could potentially diminish their appeal to moderate swing voters in the general election and create internal party divisions [9].
Several Democratic candidates have emerged, signaling a potentially competitive general election. On the Democratic side, Emily Berge, Rebecca Cooke, Rodney Rave, and Melvin Marin have already declared their intentions to run for the WI-03 seat [10][7]. Notably, Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke has demonstrated strong fundraising capabilities, outperforming Van Orden in a recent period, which suggests a potentially competitive general election race [11][12]. Despite this, current forecasts indicate that Derrick Van Orden has a 69% chance of securing victory in the district [6].
Sources (12)
  1. 1ballotpedia.org
  2. 2ballotpedia.org
  3. 3lincoln.wi.usco.lincoln.wi.us
  4. 4countyofdane.comelections.countyofdane.com
  5. 5cookpolitical.com
  6. 6thehill.comelections2024.thehill.com
  7. 7ballotpedia.org
  8. 8ballotpedia.org
  9. 9northwestern.eduipr.northwestern.edu
  10. 10ballot.watch
  11. 11urbanmilwaukee.com
  12. 12pbswisconsin.org

8. What public polling data is available for the Wisconsin 3rd Congressional District general election matchup for the 2026 cycle?

Cooke lead (March 2026 poll)49%-48% [1]
Cooke lead (Oct 2025 poll)44%-42% [2]
Polymarket Dem. odds~51% [3]
Public polling data shows Rebecca Cooke narrowly leading incumbent Derrick Van Orden. Two recent polls indicate Cooke ahead in the 2026 Wisconsin 3rd Congressional District general election matchup. A poll reported on March 26, 2026, placed Cooke in the lead with 49% support, compared to Van Orden's 48% [1]. An earlier poll, reported on October 21, 2025, also showed Cooke leading, 44% to 42% [2]. The general election for this district is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with Derrick Van Orden (R) currently holding the incumbent seat [4][5].
Prediction markets also suggest a slight Democratic advantage for this district. Analysis of these markets indicates a leaning towards the Democratic Party for the WI-03 House seat. For example, a Polymarket contract tracking the WI-03 House Election Winner shows the Democratic Party at approximately 51%, while the Republican Party is at about 47% [3]. Additionally, a Kalshi market is structured to resolve "Yes" if a Democrat is sworn in for Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District for the term beginning in 2027, directly tied to the outcome of the 2026 election [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Cooke campaign: Leading Derrick Van Orden in new poll - WisPoliticswispolitics.com
  2. 2Cooke campaign: Poll: Cooke leads Derrick Van Orden 44%-42% - WisPoliticswispolitics.com
  3. 3WI-03 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6WI-03 House winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com

9. What is the timeline and what are the key issues for the general election debates between the WI-03 Republican and Democratic nominees in Fall 2026?

Debate WindowBetween August 11, 2026, and November 3, 2026 [1][2][3]
Key Debate IssuesBringing down costs and making health care more accessible and affordable [4][5][6]
Challenger FundraisingRebecca Cooke outraised Derrick Van Orden in early 2026 (January 1–March 31) [4]
General election debates for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district (WI-03) are expected to take place between the primary election on August 11, 2026, and the general election voting day on November 3, 2026 [1][2][3]. These debates will feature incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden and the main Democratic challenger, Rebecca Cooke [4][5][7]. While a series of Democratic primary forums is scheduled for April–July 2026, these are distinct from the general election debates, which cannot commence until nominees are determined after the August 11 primary [1][8].
Debates will likely focus on economic issues and candidate favorability. The key issues for these general election debates are likely to center on economic concerns, particularly "bringing down costs," and ensuring "health care is more accessible and affordable" [4][5][6]. Rebecca Cooke's campaign has specifically emphasized these points, seeking to portray Derrick Van Orden as out of touch on affordability [5]. Additionally, the debates may be influenced by Van Orden's controversies and favorability concerns, as indicated in prediction markets [6]. Campaign momentum and resources could also play a significant role, especially given Cooke's fundraising advantage over Van Orden in early 2026 [4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2The 2026 Wisconsin elections calendar - Isthmus | Madison, Wisconsinisthmus.com
  3. 3Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Rebecca Cooke again outraises US Rep. Derrick Van Orden in pivotal Wisconsin House race - WPRwpr.org
  5. 5Competitive congressional race heats upspectrumnews1.com
  6. 6WI-03 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
  7. 7Democrat Rebecca Cooke to again challenge US Rep. Derrick Van Orden - WPRwpr.org
  8. 83rd CD 2026 Democratic Primary Candidate Forums! – 3rd CD Democrats of Wisconsin3rdcdwisdems.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Democrat Rebecca Cooke has announced another bid to challenge incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden [1]. Fundraising in the WI-03 race is described as nearly a dead heat, with Cooke raising the most in the most recent filing period but Van Orden bringing in more overall in 2025 [2].
Key upcoming dates that could influence market probabilities include the filing deadline on Jun 1, 2026, the primary on Aug 11, 2026, and the general election on Nov 3, 2026 [3][4][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1Democrat Rebecca Cooke to again challenge US Rep. Derrick Van Orden - WPRwpr.org
  2. 2Van Orden, Cooke fundraising running head-to-head in 3rd Districteu.jsonline.com
  3. 3WI-03 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  4. 4Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026 (August 11 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org