Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the Federal Funds Rate Decision to be 'No change' with greater than zero dissents in April 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which speculates on a specific combination of a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the number of dissenting votes in April 2026, has exhibited a stable, sideways trading pattern since its inception. The price has been confined to a very narrow range between 1.0% and 2.6%. The chart began with the probability at its peak of 2.6% and has since drifted slightly lower to its current level of 2.2%. Given the lack of provided news or economic context, these minor fluctuations appear to be routine market adjustments rather than reactions to specific events. There have been no significant price spikes or drops to analyze.
The total trading volume of 1,797 contracts, spread across a limited number of data points, suggests very light market activity. The sample data points provided all show zero volume, indicating that recent price changes may be due to market maker adjustments or very small, infrequent trades rather than a broad consensus shift. This low volume reflects a lack of strong conviction or immediate interest from traders regarding this long-term forecast. The price action has established a potential resistance level at the 2.6% opening high and a possible support level at the 1.0% low. Overall, the chart indicates that market sentiment is static and assigns a very low probability to this specific Fed outcome, with traders seeing it as a highly unlikely event nearly two years in the future.
  • 2026 inflation and unemployment near Fed targets suggest neutral policy.
  • Slightly hawkish FOMC with dissent tendencies makes zero dissents unlikely.
  • Balanced risk assessment by March 2026 limits extreme rate adjustments.
  • Higher federal deficits may sustain an elevated perceived neutral rate.
  • Federal Funds Rate of 4.50-4.75% with 1-2 dissents is most plausible.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For a "Yes" resolution, both of the following must occur in April 2026: the Federal Funds Rate Decision is "No change" AND the number of dissents is ">0", verified by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The market resolves to "No" if any single component is not met or becomes impossible, causing an immediate early closure. Trading opened on March 19, 2026, and will close either after the outcome occurs or by April 29, 2026, 1:55pm EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

4. What is the Projected April 2026 FOMC Composition and Stance?

Total Voting Members12 [1]
Board of Governors Members7 [1]
Median Hawk/Dove Score (Dec 2025)+0.5 (slightly hawkish) [2]
The April 2026 FOMC will consist of twelve voting members. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in April 2026 is projected to include twelve voting members: the seven members of the Board of Governors, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the presidents of four other Federal Reserve Banks who serve on a rotating annual basis [1]. While the 2024 Presidential election could influence future appointments to the Board of Governors, the specific individuals that would fill any vacancies or new terms by April 2026 are not definitively detailed [3]. Consequently, the Board of Governors is anticipated to comprise seven members, with the precise composition subject to potential appointments following the election [1].
Specific regional presidents are identified, along with the group's monetary policy stance. The rotating regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents projected to hold voting seats for 2026 will represent Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, and San Francisco [4]. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will also maintain a permanent voting position [1]. Based on their public statements and voting records through December 2025, this projected 2026 FOMC voting group exhibits a median hawk/dove score of +0.5, indicating a slightly hawkish inclination [2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1The Fed - Federal Open Market Committeefederalreserve.gov
  2. 2FED: MNI Hawk-Dove Spectrum Update: 2026 Voters T...- 12-30-2025 | MNImnimarkets.com
  3. 3Succession at the US Federal Reserve: a policy inflection point - Kraken Blog Kraken Blogblog.kraken.com
  4. 4Introduction to the 2026 Federal Reserve Voting Members | fiisual Blogfiisual.com

5. What are the 2026 economic projections for inflation and unemployment?

SPF Q1 2026 Core PCE Inflation2.1% [1]
SPF Q1 2026 U3 Unemployment4.0% [1]
SEP 2026 Core PCE Inflation (Q4 over Q4)2.0% [2]
The Survey of Professional Forecasters projects stable inflation and unemployment rates. According to the Fourth Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters, released by the Philadelphia Fed, the median projection for the annualized Core PCE inflation rate is 2.1% for both the first and second quarters of 2026 [1]. For the U3 unemployment rate, the median projection remains at 4.0% for both Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 [1].
The Federal Reserve projects slightly lower annual inflation for 2026. The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), published December 10, 2025, provides median forecasts for 2026. The median projection for Core PCE inflation for 2026, measured as Q4 over Q4, is 2.0% [2]. For the U3 unemployment rate, the annual average for Q4 2026 is also projected to be 4.0% [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ425.pdfphiladelphiafed.org
  2. 2https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20251210.pdffederalreserve.gov

6. Which April 2026 FOMC Members Are Prone to Dissent?

Lorie Logan's StanceIndicated caution against rate cuts in late 2025, suggesting high dissent propensity during pivots [1]
Federal Reserve DivisionMost divided it's been in more than six years by December 2025 [2]
Key April 2026 VotersPresidents of Dallas (Logan), Cleveland (Mester), Boston (Collins), St. Louis (O'Neill) [1]
Lorie Logan shows a strong propensity for dissenting votes. As President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a potential April 2026 voting member, Logan has historically dissented during periods of policy pivots. Notably, in late 2025, she expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, aligning with a tendency to diverge from consensus during an initial shift to rate reductions after a prolonged hold [1]. Her prior dissenting patterns are consistently observed around significant policy adjustments [3].
The Fed faces significant internal division approaching April 2026. By December 2025, the Federal Reserve was described as "the most divided it's been in more than six years" [2]. While Loretta Mester (Cleveland), Susan Collins (Boston), and Kathleen O'Neill (St. Louis) will also be voting members for the April 2026 FOMC, alongside the Board of Governors and the NY Fed President, the available research does not provide direct examples of their explicit dissent during policy pivots within the 2015-2025 timeframe that clearly match Logan's stated position [3]. This elevated internal division suggests an environment where dissenting votes, particularly from members with strong stated positions such as Logan, could become more common.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Introduction to the 2026 Federal Reserve Voting Members | fiisual Blogfiisual.com
  2. 2The Fed is the most divided it's been in more than six yearscnbc.com
  3. 3History of Federal Reserve dissents in two directions | Reutersreuters.com

7. How Will Federal Deficits Influence Fed Speeches on Interest Rates?

Federal Deficit ProjectionsFY2025-2026 ongoing analysis [1]
Key Fed Governors SpeakingChristopher Waller and Lorie Logan in 2025 [2]
Neutral Rate (r*) ImpactHigher r* supports arguments against aggressive rate cuts [3]
The fiscal policy stance following the 2024 election will significantly influence the neutral rate debate in 2025. The projected federal deficits for FY2025-2026 are expected to heavily impact discussions on the 'neutral rate' (r) among Federal Reserve governors. Analyses of these deficit projections are provided by organizations such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Bipartisan Policy Center [1]. Sustained or increasing federal deficits can elevate the perceived neutral rate, potentially due to increased government borrowing needs or an indication of a structural rise in aggregate demand, thus framing future monetary policy discussions.
Key Fed governors will address fiscal realities and monetary policy in their 2025 speeches. Governors Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan are scheduled to deliver addresses that will likely cover these fiscal issues and their implications for monetary policy. Governor Waller's October 2025 speech on the 'economic outlook' and his discussions on 'Interest Rates, Inflation & Growth' are platforms where the influence of fiscal policy on the economy and the neutral rate could be explored [2]. Similarly, Governor Logan's November 2025 'Opening remarks for panel titled ‘Economic uncertainty and the design and conduct of monetary policy’' and her September 2025 speech, 'Why I’ll be cautious about further rate cuts,' offer direct opportunities to articulate how the fiscal environment shapes her views on the appropriate monetary policy path [4].
A higher neutral rate argues against significant interest rate reductions. A central argument in these discussions is that an elevated perceived neutral rate (r) would advise caution regarding substantial interest rate reductions. If substantial projected deficits for FY2025-2026 are seen as contributing to a higher r—implying that the economy can sustain higher real interest rates without becoming restrictive—governors like Waller and Logan could use this perception to argue for maintaining a less accommodative monetary stance or for proceeding cautiously with further rate cuts. This framework suggests that the fiscal trajectory post-2024 will be a critical input shaping their arguments for a potentially higher r throughout their 2025 speeches, influencing the broader Fed debate on the pace and extent of future rate adjustments.
Sources (4)
  1. 1The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035cbo.gov
  2. 2Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
  3. 3Why I’ll be cautious about further rate cuts - Dallasfed.orgdallasfed.org
  4. 4Opening remarks for panel titled ‘Economic uncertainty and the design and conduct of monetary policy’ - Dallasfed.orgdallasfed.org

8. How Did FOMC Language on Economic Risks Evolve?

December 2025 Risk Assessment"risks... are moving into better balance" [1]
January 2026 Risk Assessment"continues to judge that the risks... are moving into better balance" [2]
March 2026 Risk Assessment"risks... are now balanced" [3]
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements displayed a clear progression in their evaluation of the balance of risks to the economic outlook from December 2025 to March 2026. In December 2025, the FOMC initially stated that "the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance" [1]. This exact phrasing was affirmed in January 2026, when the Committee noted it "continues to judge that the risks... are moving into better balance" [2]. A notable change appeared in the March 2026 statement, as the FOMC announced that "the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are now balanced" [3]. This shift, moving from an ongoing improvement to a declared state of equilibrium, indicates a more confident appraisal of the economic environment.
The balanced risk assessment signals potential shifts in monetary policy. This evolution in language, particularly the definitive move to "risks... are now balanced," provides a strong indicator for potential monetary policy action. Historically, minor alterations in FOMC statement wording, especially concerning the "balance of risks," are closely examined for their implications regarding future policy adjustments [4]. For instance, the use of "nearly balanced" risks in 2015 did not deter officials from considering a near-term interest rate increase [5]. Consequently, the explicit declaration of "risks... are now balanced" in March 2026 suggests that the Committee perceives fewer obstacles to implementing policy changes, potentially facilitating adjustments such as interest rate modifications in the near future, contingent upon other incoming economic data [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
  2. 2Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
  3. 3Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
  4. 4FRB: FEDS Notes: Hanging on every word: Semantic analysis of the FOMC's postmeeting statementfederalreserve.gov
  5. 5Fed's 'nearly balanced' language no bar to September rate risereuters.com

10. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 4 markets in this series

Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXFEDCOMBO-26MAR-25C-T0: NO (Mar 18, 2026)
  • KXFEDCOMBO-26MAR-25C-0: NO (Mar 18, 2026)
  • KXFEDCOMBO-26MAR-0-T0: YES (Mar 18, 2026)
  • KXFEDCOMBO-26MAR-0-0: NO (Mar 18, 2026)