Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the US SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026, to be Above 284M, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action shows a rapid shift from near-zero probability to near-certainty over a few days. The contract traded near 0.0% until August 20, 2026, when an announcement regarding an "economic D-Day" against Iran caused oil prices to surge. This geopolitical news acted as the primary catalyst, driving the probability from 1.0% to 51.0% in a single day and establishing 50.0% as a key pivot level. This initial, dramatic spike indicates the market abruptly began pricing in a high degree of uncertainty about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve level.
The subsequent price movements were driven by the release and digestion of official inventory data. Following the initial spike, the price saw further volatility, rising to 61.0% on August 21 before falling back to 50.0% on August 22. This fluctuation appears to be the market's reaction to the weekly SPR report, which confirmed a level of 289.7 million barrels. While this figure is above the 289 million threshold, it also represented a 3.7 million barrel decrease from the prior week. The final 50.0 percentage point spike to 99.0% on August 24 shows the market resolving its brief uncertainty and fully pricing in the confirmed data. The total traded volume of 3,961 contracts suggests significant market conviction, with activity likely concentrated around these key news and data release dates.
  • SPR level confirmed at 289.7M barrels for August 21, 2026, definitively above 289M.
  • The 289.7M barrel SPR level for August 21, 2026, is definitively not above 290M.

Current Context

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil stocks fell to 289.7 million barrels for the week ending August 21, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. This level marks a decline of 3.7 million barrels, or 1.26%, from the prior week's 293.4 million barrels on August 14, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. The current SPR inventory of 289.7 million barrels represents the lowest level recorded since November 1982 [1][9]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) typically tracks and reports crude oil inventory data, including the SPR, in its weekly reports [10]. As of August 25, 2026, the specific SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026, was not available in Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) or ALFRED repositories [11][12].
Geopolitical tensions intensify oil market volatility amidst supply concerns. As of August 25, 2026, energy market developments are driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict [2][13][14][15]. This conflict has led to ongoing transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and an escalation of U.S. economic sanctions against Iran [2][13][14][15]. Investors continue to weigh the impact of these geopolitical risks against the reality of constrained but persistent oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining volatility in oil prices for both WTI and Brent crude [13][14][15].
Sources (15)
  1. 1United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Oil Stockstradingeconomics.com
  2. 2Oil steadies as investors weigh expanded U.S. sanctions against Irancnbc.com
  3. 3www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  4. 4seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  5. 5www.proactiveinvestors.co.ukOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  6. 6www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  7. 7www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  8. 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  9. 9US emergency oil reserve hits 1982 low as Hormuz risks keep crude elevatedgulfbusiness.com
  10. 10Crude Oil Futures Overviewcmegroup.com
  11. 11Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - FREDfred.stlouisfed.org
  12. 12Inventories, Petroleum - Economic Data Series - FREDfred.stlouisfed.org
  13. 13Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
  14. 14Oil Prices Fall Despite Tanker Strike off Oman as Strait of Hormuz Tensions and US–Iran Sanctions Risks Persistgulfnews.com
  15. 15WTI holds ground above $84.50 as escalating concerns over US sanctions on Iranfxstreet.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 289M

📈 August 24, 2026: 50.0pp spike

Price increased from 49.0% to 99.0%

What happened: The prediction market's 50.0 percentage point spike for "Above 289M" was primarily driven by the confirmation that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending August 21, 2026, was 289.7 million barrels, which is indeed above 289M [1][2][3]. The provided research contains no evidence of specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives directly causing this spike on August 24, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. While general oil prices declined on August 24, 2026, due to anticipated U.S. sanctions against Iran, this was distinct from the SPR level market [9][10][11][12][13]. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.

📉 August 22, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 61.0% to 50.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop was the reported U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending August 21, 2026. The SPR was reported at 289.7 million barrels [1][2][14], a decrease of 3.7 million barrels from the prior week's 293.4 million barrels and the lowest level since November 1982 [1][15][2][14]. This reported figure, while technically "Above 289M", is very close to the threshold and signaled a significant, ongoing drawdown, likely diminishing market confidence in the outcome maintaining a comfortable margin above 289M. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as the provided evidence did not include any relevant social media catalysts [3][4][5][6][7][8].

📈 August 21, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 51.0% to 61.0%

What happened: The 10.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Above 289M" for the US SPR level by August 21, 2026, was primarily driven by the official announcement that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 289.7 million barrels for that week [1][2][14][16]. This figure confirmed the SPR remained just above the 289M threshold, despite ongoing emergency drawdowns by the Trump administration amid the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions [14][16]. The only identified social media activity, a post from "DropSiteNews" on X referencing CSIS on SPR releases [17], was recorded before this specific data and did not directly address the 289M threshold or the final 289.7M figure. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant, with the official data release acting as the primary driver.

📈 August 20, 2026: 50.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 51.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market price spike on August 20, 2026, appears to be U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of an "economic D-Day" against Iran, coinciding with the expiration of a U.S.-Iran memorandum [18][19]. This news caused oil prices to surge nearly 3%, rising above $94/barrel [18][19]. Despite the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) being in a period of decline, reaching 289.7 million barrels for the week ending August 21, 2026 (which is above 289M) [1][2][20], the heightened geopolitical risk likely prompted increased market confidence that the SPR level would be maintained above 289M to preserve strategic reserves. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, but would likely have served as a contributing accelerant for this traditional news announcement.

Outcome: Above 286M

📈 August 19, 2026: 75.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 75.0%

What happened: The provided research does not identify a specific primary driver for the 75.0 percentage point spike in the "US SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026 Above 286M" prediction market on August 19, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. No specific social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, was found to lead or coincide with this precise market movement [3][4][5][6][7][8]. While the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was generally declining to its lowest levels since 1982 due to emergency releases related to geopolitical events [1][2][15], no direct news announcement on August 19, 2026, explains this particular spike. Therefore, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver in this instance.
Sources (20)
  1. 1United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Oil Stockstradingeconomics.com
  2. 2US strategic oil reserve continues decline, hits lowest level since 1982aa.com.tr
  3. 3www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  4. 4seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  5. 5www.proactiveinvestors.co.ukOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  6. 6www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  7. 7www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  8. 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  9. 9Oil price today: WTI, Brent, U.S. sanctions, Irancnbc.com
  10. 10Oil Price Today (August 24): Crude oil slips below $93 ahead of US sanctions announcement on Iran. What are experts saying? - The Economic Timeseconomictimes.indiatimes.com
  11. 11Oil prices fall as Bessent outlines new steps to punish Iranfrance24.com
  12. 12Crude price forecast: Oil falls, but Iran tensions keep $100 target aliveinvezz.com
  13. 13WTI Oil retreats toward $85 ahead of US economic offensive against Irantmgm.com
  14. 14US strategic oil reserve continues decline, hits lowest level since 1982oilmonster.com
  15. 15U.S. Oil Reserve Hits Lowest Level Since 1982 Amid Hormuz Closuretelesurenglish.net
  16. 16US-Israel-Iran War News: US Oil Reserve Hits 44-Year Low - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to 289.7 Million Barrels, Lowest Since 1982, as Trump Draws Crude Amid Iran Warsundayguardianlive.com
  17. 17CSIS on the SPR releases (recorded before the latest data)x.com
  18. 18Oil surges nearly 3 per cent as US tightens pressure on Iran after Hormuz deal expires | The Nationalthenationalnews.com
  19. 19Trump’s Iran ‘economic D-Day’ threat sends oil prices above $94 - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012al-monitor.com
  20. 20SPR depletion raises questions about integrity of oil cavernscnbc.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Each contract in this market resolves based on the reported US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending August 21, 2026. A "Yes" resolution occurs if the SPR level is above the specific millions of barrels threshold stated in the contract; otherwise, it resolves "No." Trading for these markets begins on August 26, 2026, at 9:30 AM EDT, with the maximum payout also occurring on this date.

Market Discussion

For the week ending August 21, 2026, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory level was 289.7 million barrels, marking a decrease to its lowest level since November 1982 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. These ongoing drawdowns are part of a government initiative to release 172 million barrels in response to global supply disruptions and instability in the Strait of Hormuz due to conflict involving Iran [3][10][11]. Market commentary and analysts express significant concerns over energy security, highlighting the rapidly diminishing buffer, increased reliance on market prices to absorb shocks, and potential structural integrity issues in salt caverns as inventory approaches a projected "legal floor" of 252 million barrels [10][11][12].

Sources (12)
  1. 1United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Oil Stockstradingeconomics.com
  2. 2US strategic oil reserve continues decline, hits lowest level since 1982aa.com.tr
  3. 3Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1982washingtonexaminer.com
  4. 4www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6www.proactiveinvestors.co.ukOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  7. 7www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  8. 8www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  9. 9seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  10. 10US Petroleum Buffer Falls to 41 Days as Hormuz Disruption, Emergency Releases and Exports Strain Energy Securitytheasialive.com
  11. 11Price Is the Only Buffer Left - by Felipe Vigne Germinifgermini.substack.com
  12. 12White House tries new tactic but oil conclusion the same, tight and bullish | Spartaspartacommodities.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 25, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality10
Poor
Liquidity
4

14 contracts · worst first

Above 290M1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 291M1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 295M1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 297M1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 287M9
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 286M10
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 288M16
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 289M44
Thin · low confidence

24h traded notional $3,729

Above 284M—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 285M—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 293M—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 292M—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 294M—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 296M—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

14 contracts · worst first

Above 287M73
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 290M75
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 291M77
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 284M—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 286M—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 5

Above 289M—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 285M—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 288M—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 293M—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 292M—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 294M—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 295M—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 608

Above 296M—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 297M—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 2,297

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

14 contracts · worst first

Above 284M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 286M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 287M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 289M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 285M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 288M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 293M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 290M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 291M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 292M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 294M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 295M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 296M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 297M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 25, 2026

6. What were the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) projections for SPR levels in Q3 2026, as published in their Short-Term Energy Outlooks (STEO) during the first half of the year?

Projected SPR Q3 2026336.4 million barrels (EIA STEO August 2026 tables [1][2][3][4][5][6])
Reported SPR Q2 2026321 million barrels (EIA STEO August 2026 [7])
Q3 2026 Narrative DetailNo specific, detailed quarterly projections for 3Q26 in August 2026 STEO narrative [7]
EIA projected specific Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels for Q3 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated U.S. crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was projected to reach 336.4 million barrels in Q3 2026. This projection was specifically published in the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) August 2026 tables [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The same August 2026 STEO also reported an SPR level of 321 million barrels for the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26).
Narrative details for Q3 2026 projections were not available. While the August 2026 STEO tables provided a quantitative projection, its narrative did not offer specific, detailed quarterly projections for SPR levels for Q3 2026 [7]. Furthermore, the research did not contain specific information regarding EIA projections for SPR levels in Q3 2026 that were published in Short-Term Energy Outlooks during the first half of 2026.
Sources (7)
  1. 1www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  2. 2seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  3. 3www.proactiveinvestors.co.ukOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  4. 4www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  5. 5www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  6. 6seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  7. 7Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov

7. How might geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz throughout 2026 impact the U.S. Department of Energy's SPR release schedule?

Emergency Oil Exchange Program172 million barrels [1][2][3]
SPR Inventory (Aug 21, 2026)293.426 million barrels [4][5][6][7][8][9]
SPR Operational Floor170 to 300 million barrels [2]
Geopolitical events in 2026 triggered a significant SPR emergency exchange program. An Iran conflict and subsequent supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz led to the strait's effective closure to normal tanker traffic beginning in late February 2026 [1][2][3]. This situation prompted the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to initiate a 172-million-barrel emergency oil exchange program from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [1][2][3]. Structured as a loan, this program requires market participants to return the borrowed oil between late 2026 and 2029, accompanied by an 18–24% in-kind premium [3][10].
Despite events, no documented changes occurred to the SPR's release schedule. For the week ending August 21, 2026, the SPR's inventory level stood at 293.426 million barrels [4][5][6][7][8][9]. While these geopolitical events significantly impacted oil markets and influenced rationale for reserve management, the available evidence does not document any changes to the DOE's SPR release schedule directly attributable to these events during 2026 [4][5][6][7][8][9]. The ongoing depletion of the reserve has also raised concerns regarding the structural integrity of the SPR salt caverns, with an operational "floor" or "soft-ish floor" for the reserve identified between 170 and 300 million barrels [2].
Sources (10)
  1. 1EXPLAINER - Hormuz crisis drains America’s own oil bufferaa.com.tr
  2. 2SPR depletion raises questions about integrity of oil cavernscnbc.com
  3. 3SPR Drawdowns and 2026 Exchange Programplainview-energy.com
  4. 4www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6www.proactiveinvestors.co.ukOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  7. 7www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  8. 8www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  9. 9seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  10. 10How the 2026 Oil Release Actually Worked: One Emergency, Five Playbooks | The Vault Reportthevaultreport.com

8. How did the Biden administration's stated SPR replenishment goals for 2026 compare with the actual release and refill rates reported by the EIA through July 2026?

SPR Inventory (January 2026)415.2 million barrels [1]
SPR Inventory (May 2026)355.4 million barrels [1]
SPR Inventory (August 14, 2026)approximately 293.4 million barrels [1]
Direct comparison of SPR goals and actual rates is not feasible. A direct comparison between the Biden administration's stated Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) replenishment goals for 2026 and the actual release and refill rates reported by the EIA through July 2026 cannot be established due to the unavailability of necessary evidence [2][3][4][5][6][7]. The Biden administration's SPR replenishment strategy for 2026 focused on a flexible, market-responsive purchasing approach, aiming for advantageous deals for taxpayers by buying oil below 2022 emergency sale prices [8][9][10]. This strategy did not involve setting fixed annual volumetric goals for 2026, and specific stated 2026 replenishment goals, including target volumes and timing from the administration, are not provided in the available information [2][3][4][5][6][7].
Actual SPR release and refill rates are not available. Furthermore, the provided evidence does not include EIA-reported actual SPR release and refill rates or equivalent weekly/monthly release/refill volumes through July 2026, which are essential for such a comparison [2][3][4][5][6][7]. While EIA monthly reports do indicate SPR inventory levels in 2026, showing a decline from 415.2 million barrels in January to 355.4 million barrels in May, and further depletion to approximately 293.4 million barrels by the week ending August 14, 2026, these figures represent overall inventory levels rather than specific release or refill rates [1]. Therefore, without both the specific stated goals and the actual reported rates, a grounded comparison is not possible [2][3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (10)
  1. 1U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (Thousand Barrels)eia.gov
  2. 2www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  3. 3seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4www.proactiveinvestors.co.ukOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  5. 5www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  6. 6www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  7. 7seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  8. 8Biden-Harris Administration Makes Final Purchase for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Secures 200 Million Barrels at a Good Deal for the American Taxpayer | Department of Energyenergy.gov
  9. 9Biden-Harris Administration Purchases Additional Barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – Bringing Total Purchased to Nearly 45 Million at a Good Deal for American Taxpayers | Department of Energyenergy.gov
  10. 10Biden-Harris Administration Continues to Secure a Good Deal for Taxpayers and Announces an Additional Solicitation to Purchase Oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Department of Energyenergy.gov

9. What is the standard reporting timeline and historical revision rate for the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, specifically concerning SPR crude oil stocks?

WPSR Standard ReleaseWednesdays after 10:30 a.m. ET (for data ending previous Friday) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Weekly Data Revision RateOnce every five years, on average [10][11][12]
SPR Crude Oil Stocks (week ending Aug 21, 2026)289.7 million barrels [13]
The EIA's WPSR reports weekly petroleum data, usually released on Wednesdays. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), which includes Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil stocks, is typically published on Wednesdays after 10:30 a.m. ET. This report covers data from the week concluding the previous Friday [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. During holiday periods, the release is often postponed to Thursday, generally around 12:00 p.m. ET. For instance, the WPSR for the week ending May 22, 2026, was scheduled for May 28, 2026, and the report for the week ending September 4, 2026, was slated for September 10, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. As a specific example, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil stocks were reported as 289.7 million barrels for the week ending August 21, 2026 [13].
WPSR data revisions are uncommon, subject to strict EIA guidelines. The EIA's policy stipulates that weekly data, including SPR crude oil stocks, is rarely revised unless a significant error, omission, or natural disaster occurs that would substantially impact the understanding of U.S. petroleum supplies [10][11][12]. Historically, WPSR revisions happen, on average, once every five years, and any revised values are disseminated in the subsequent scheduled release [10][11][12]. While WPSR documentation indicates revised values with 'R = Revised Data', the available research does not provide the detailed revision history required to calculate a precise quantitative historical revision rate or specific week-by-week counts for SPR crude oil stocks [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (13)
  1. 1www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  2. 2seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  3. 3www.proactiveinvestors.co.ukOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  4. 4www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  5. 5www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  6. 6seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  7. 7Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule - U.S. Energy...eia.gov
  8. 8Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information...eia.gov
  9. 9Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  10. 10https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/appendixb.pdfeia.gov
  11. 1154140govinfo.gov
  12. 12Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  13. 13United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Oil Stockstradingeconomics.com

10. What WTI crude oil price points have historically triggered Department of Energy SPR repurchases, and how did prices from June to August 2026 compare to these levels?

DOE Initial Target Price$67–$72 per barrel [1][2][3][4][5]
DOE Later Target Priceat or below $79.99 per barrel [1][2][3][4][5]
WTI Crude Peak June 2026near $99.76/bbl [6][7][8]
The DOE established specific WTI price targets for SPR repurchases. Historically, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) aimed to repurchase WTI crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) when prices ranged from approximately $67 to $72 per barrel, a strategy adopted following the emergency releases in 2022 [1][2][3]. The DOE later revised its target, indicating an aim to purchase oil for the SPR at or below $79.99 per barrel [4][5].
WTI crude oil prices in mid-2026 often exceeded these repurchase thresholds. From June through August 2026, WTI crude oil prices consistently remained higher than the DOE's established historical repurchase target ranges. Prices in June 2026 experienced fluctuations, peaking near $99.76 per barrel early in the month before declining to approximately $70 per barrel by July 1, 2026 [6][7]. However, by August 2026, market prices had increased once more, trading above $80 per barrel and reaching around $84.91 per barrel in late August [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1A $60 to $70 Floor For Crude Oil | news.cqg.comnews.cqg.com
  2. 2Further SPR crude releases possible as part of three-step...spglobal.com
  3. 3US DOE to buy 6 mil barrels of sour crude for October, November delivery to continue SPR refill | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwidehellenicshippingnews.com
  4. 4U.S. Department of Energy Announces New Solicitations to Purchase 6 Million Barrels of Oil for Strategic Petroleum Reservecontent.govdelivery.com
  5. 5US buys 3 million barrels of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reservereuters.com
  6. 6WTI Crude Oil Wholesale Spot Petroleum Price (Daily) - Hist…ycharts.com
  7. 7Crude Oil WTI Aug '26 Futures Price History - Barchart.combarchart.com
  8. 8Crude Oil WTI Aug '26 Futures Price - Barchart.combarchart.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key market catalysts as of late August 2026 include the continued disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, along with the US administration's "economic D-Day" sanctions against Iran [1][2][3][4]. The US Treasury's "Operation Economic Outcast" targets Iranian economic lifelines, specifically Iranian oil sales, using secondary sanctions [1]. This geopolitical tension creates market uncertainty regarding potential escalation from an economic struggle to broader military action [1][2][3][4].
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts elevated oil prices through 3Q26, with Brent averaging $85/b, attributing this to Hormuz-related inventory drawdowns [1][5][2][3]. A gradual recovery in flows and prices is expected to begin in September 2026 and extend into 2027 [1][5][2][3]. As of the week ending August 14, 2026, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) held 293.43 million barrels of crude oil, marking a weekly decrease of 5.27 million barrels [6][7][8][9][10][11]. The next EIA weekly SPR release, which would include data for the week ending 2026-08-21, is scheduled for 2026-08-26 [6][7][8][9][10][11]. Concurrently, China has reduced gasoline and diesel consumption, with policy actions accelerating this reduction, potentially dampening overall oil demand [12][6][7][8][9][10][11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 02, 2026
  • Closes: August 26, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
  2. 2EIA Raises Oil and Fuel Price Forecasts as Middle East Disruptions Continue - Mansfield Energymansfield.energy
  3. 3Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global oil marketseia.gov
  4. 4Oil Prices Steady as US Expands Sanctions on Iran | Market Impactglobalbankingandfinance.com
  5. 5Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
  6. 6www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  7. 7seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  8. 8www.proactiveinvestors.co.ukOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  9. 9www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  10. 10www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  11. 11seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  12. 12United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Oil Stockstradingeconomics.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T290: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
  • KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T291: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
  • KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T292: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
  • KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T293: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
  • KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T294: NO (Aug 19, 2026)