US SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the US SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026, to be Above 284M, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- SPR level confirmed at 289.7M barrels for August 21, 2026, definitively above 289M.
- The 289.7M barrel SPR level for August 21, 2026, is definitively not above 290M.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 289M | 99.0% | 100.0% | The confirmed SPR level of 289.7 million barrels is above 289 million barrels. |
| Above 295M | 1.0% | 0.0% | The confirmed SPR level of 289.7 million barrels is not above 295 million barrels. |
| Above 284M | 99.0% | 100.0% | The confirmed SPR level of 289.7 million barrels is above 284 million barrels. |
| Above 297M | 1.0% | 0.0% | The confirmed SPR level of 289.7 million barrels is definitively not above 297 million barrels. |
| Above 292M | 1.0% | 0.0% | The confirmed SPR level of 289.7 million barrels is not above 292 million barrels. |
Current Context
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil stocks fell to 289.7 million barrels for the week ending August 21, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . sanctions against Iran" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This level marks a decline of 3.7 million barrels, or 1.26%, from the prior week's 293.4 million barrels on August 14, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The current SPR inventory of 289.7 million barrels represents the lowest level recorded since November 1982 [^][^]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) typically tracks and reports crude oil inventory data, including the SPR, in its weekly reports [^]. As of August 25, 2026, the specific SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026, was not available in Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) or ALFRED repositories [^][^].
Geopolitical tensions intensify oil market volatility amidst supply concerns. As of August 25, 2026, energy market developments are driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict [^][^][^][^]. This conflict has led to ongoing transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and an escalation of U.S. economic sanctions against Iran [^][^][^][^]. Investors continue to weigh the impact of these geopolitical risks against the reality of constrained but persistent oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining volatility in oil prices for both WTI and Brent crude [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action shows a rapid shift from near-zero probability to near-certainty over a few days. The contract traded near 0.0% until August 20, 2026, when an announcement regarding an "economic D-Day" against Iran caused oil prices to surge. This geopolitical news acted as the primary catalyst, driving the probability from 1.0% to 51.0% in a single day and establishing 50.0% as a key pivot level. This initial, dramatic spike indicates the market abruptly began pricing in a high degree of uncertainty about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve level.
The subsequent price movements were driven by the release and digestion of official inventory data. Following the initial spike, the price saw further volatility, rising to 61.0% on August 21 before falling back to 50.0% on August 22. This fluctuation appears to be the market's reaction to the weekly SPR report, which confirmed a level of 289.7 million barrels. While this figure is above the 289 million threshold, it also represented a 3.7 million barrel decrease from the prior week. The final 50.0 percentage point spike to 99.0% on August 24 shows the market resolving its brief uncertainty and fully pricing in the confirmed data. The total traded volume of 3,961 contracts suggests significant market conviction, with activity likely concentrated around these key news and data release dates.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 289M
📈 August 24, 2026: 50.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The prediction market's 50.0 percentage point spike for "Above 289M" was primarily driven by the confirmation that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending August 21, 2026, was 289.7 million barrels, which is indeed above 289M [^][^][^]. The provided research contains no evidence of specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives directly causing this spike on August 24, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While general oil prices declined on August 24, 2026, due to anticipated U.S. sanctions against Iran, this was distinct from the SPR level market [^][^][^][^][^]. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
📉 August 22, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 61.0% to 50.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop was the reported U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending August 21, 2026. The SPR was reported at 289.7 million barrels [^][^][^], a decrease of 3.7 million barrels from the prior week's 293.4 million barrels and the lowest level since November 1982 [^][^][^][^]. This reported figure, while technically "Above 289M", is very close to the threshold and signaled a significant, ongoing drawdown, likely diminishing market confidence in the outcome maintaining a comfortable margin above 289M. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as the provided evidence did not include any relevant social media catalysts [^][^][^][^][^][^].
📈 August 21, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 51.0% to 61.0%
What happened: The 10.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Above 289M" for the US SPR level by August 21, 2026, was primarily driven by the official announcement that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 289.7 million barrels for that week [^][^][^][^]. This figure confirmed the SPR remained just above the 289M threshold, despite ongoing emergency drawdowns by the Trump administration amid the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions [^][^]. The only identified social media activity, a post from "DropSiteNews" on X referencing CSIS on SPR releases [^], was recorded before this specific data and did not directly address the 289M threshold or the final 289.7M figure. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant, with the official data release acting as the primary driver.
📈 August 20, 2026: 50.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 51.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market price spike on August 20, 2026, appears to be U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of an "economic D-Day" against Iran, coinciding with the expiration of a U.S.-Iran memorandum [^][^]. This news caused oil prices to surge nearly 3%, rising above $94/barrel [^][^]. Despite the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) being in a period of decline, reaching 289.7 million barrels for the week ending August 21, 2026 (which is above 289M) [^][^][^], the heightened geopolitical risk likely prompted increased market confidence that the SPR level would be maintained above 289M to preserve strategic reserves. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, but would likely have served as a contributing accelerant for this traditional news announcement.
Outcome: Above 286M
📈 August 19, 2026: 75.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 75.0%
What happened: The provided research does not identify a specific primary driver for the 75.0 percentage point spike in the "US SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026 Above 286M" prediction market on August 19, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. No specific social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, was found to lead or coincide with this precise market movement [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was generally declining to its lowest levels since 1982 due to emergency releases related to geopolitical events [^][^][^], no direct news announcement on August 19, 2026, explains this particular spike. Therefore, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver in this instance.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Each contract in this market resolves based on the reported US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending August 21, 2026. A "Yes" resolution occurs if the SPR level is above the specific millions of barrels threshold stated in the contract; otherwise, it resolves "No." Trading for these markets begins on August 26, 2026, at 9:30 AM EDT, with the maximum payout also occurring on this date.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 284M | $1.00 | $0.04 | 99% |
| Above 286M | $1.00 | $0.04 | 99% |
| Above 287M | $1.00 | $0.06 | 99% |
| Above 289M | $1.00 | $0.07 | 99% |
| Above 285M | $1.00 | $0.04 | 96% |
| Above 288M | $1.00 | $0.08 | 91% |
| Above 293M | $0.03 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 290M | $0.09 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 291M | $0.08 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 292M | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 294M | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 295M | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 296M | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 297M | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
For the week ending August 21, 2026, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory level was 289.7 million barrels, marking a decrease to its lowest level since November 1982 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. These ongoing drawdowns are part of a government initiative to release 172 million barrels in response to global supply disruptions and instability in the Strait of Hormuz due to conflict involving Iran [^][^][^]. Market commentary and analysts express significant concerns over energy security, highlighting the rapidly diminishing buffer, increased reliance on market prices to absorb shocks, and potential structural integrity issues in salt caverns as inventory approaches a projected "legal floor" of 252 million barrels [^][^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above 289MPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 284MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Above 285MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Above 286MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 287MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
Above 288MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 290MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality75Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality75Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
Above 291MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
Above 292MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Above 293MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Above 294MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Above 295MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 296MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Above 297MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 25, 2026
6. What were the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) projections for SPR levels in Q3 2026, as published in their Short-Term Energy Outlooks (STEO) during the first half of the year?
| Projected SPR Q3 2026 | 336.4 million barrels (EIA STEO August 2026 tables [^][^][^][^][^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Reported SPR Q2 2026 | 321 million barrels (EIA STEO August 2026 [^]) |
| Q3 2026 Narrative Detail | No specific, detailed quarterly projections for 3Q26 in August 2026 STEO narrative [^] |
EIA projected specific Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels for Q3 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated U.S. crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was projected to reach 336.4 million barrels in Q3 2026. This projection was specifically published in the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) August 2026 tables [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The same August 2026 STEO also reported an SPR level of 321 million barrels for the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26).
Narrative details for Q3 2026 projections were not available. While the August 2026 STEO tables provided a quantitative projection, its narrative did not offer specific, detailed quarterly projections for SPR levels for Q3 2026 [^]. Furthermore, the research did not contain specific information regarding EIA projections for SPR levels in Q3 2026 that were published in Short-Term Energy Outlooks during the first half of 2026.
7. How might geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz throughout 2026 impact the U.S. Department of Energy's SPR release schedule?
| Emergency Oil Exchange Program | 172 million barrels [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| SPR Inventory (Aug 21, 2026) | 293.426 million barrels [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| SPR Operational Floor | 170 to 300 million barrels [^] |
Geopolitical events in 2026 triggered a significant SPR emergency exchange program. An Iran conflict and subsequent supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz led to the strait's effective closure to normal tanker traffic beginning in late February 2026 [^][^][^]. This situation prompted the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to initiate a 172-million-barrel emergency oil exchange program from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [^][^][^]. Structured as a loan, this program requires market participants to return the borrowed oil between late 2026 and 2029, accompanied by an 18–24% in-kind premium [^][^].
Despite events, no documented changes occurred to the SPR's release schedule. For the week ending August 21, 2026, the SPR's inventory level stood at 293.426 million barrels [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While these geopolitical events significantly impacted oil markets and influenced rationale for reserve management, the available evidence does not document any changes to the DOE's SPR release schedule directly attributable to these events during 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The ongoing depletion of the reserve has also raised concerns regarding the structural integrity of the SPR salt caverns, with an operational "floor" or "soft-ish floor" for the reserve identified between 170 and 300 million barrels [^].
8. How did the Biden administration's stated SPR replenishment goals for 2026 compare with the actual release and refill rates reported by the EIA through July 2026?
| SPR Inventory (January 2026) | 415.2 million barrels [^] |
|---|---|
| SPR Inventory (May 2026) | 355.4 million barrels [^] |
| SPR Inventory (August 14, 2026) | approximately 293.4 million barrels [^] |
Direct comparison of SPR goals and actual rates is not feasible. A direct comparison between the Biden administration's stated Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) replenishment goals for 2026 and the actual release and refill rates reported by the EIA through July 2026 cannot be established due to the unavailability of necessary evidence [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The Biden administration's SPR replenishment strategy for 2026 focused on a flexible, market-responsive purchasing approach, aiming for advantageous deals for taxpayers by buying oil below 2022 emergency sale prices [^][^][^]. This strategy did not involve setting fixed annual volumetric goals for 2026, and specific stated 2026 replenishment goals, including target volumes and timing from the administration, are not provided in the available information [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Actual SPR release and refill rates are not available. Furthermore, the provided evidence does not include EIA-reported actual SPR release and refill rates or equivalent weekly/monthly release/refill volumes through July 2026, which are essential for such a comparison [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While EIA monthly reports do indicate SPR inventory levels in 2026, showing a decline from 415.2 million barrels in January to 355.4 million barrels in May, and further depletion to approximately 293.4 million barrels by the week ending August 14, 2026, these figures represent overall inventory levels rather than specific release or refill rates [^]. Therefore, without both the specific stated goals and the actual reported rates, a grounded comparison is not possible [^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. What is the standard reporting timeline and historical revision rate for the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, specifically concerning SPR crude oil stocks?
| WPSR Standard Release | Wednesdays after 10:30 a.m. ET (for data ending previous Friday) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Weekly Data Revision Rate | Once every five years, on average [^][^][^] |
| SPR Crude Oil Stocks (week ending Aug 21, 2026) | 289.7 million barrels [^] |
The EIA's WPSR reports weekly petroleum data, usually released on Wednesdays. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), which includes Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil stocks, is typically published on Wednesdays after 10:30 a.m. ET. This report covers data from the week concluding the previous Friday [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. During holiday periods, the release is often postponed to Thursday, generally around 12:00 p.m. ET. For instance, the WPSR for the week ending May 22, 2026, was scheduled for May 28, 2026, and the report for the week ending September 4, 2026, was slated for September 10, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. As a specific example, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil stocks were reported as 289.7 million barrels for the week ending August 21, 2026 [^].
WPSR data revisions are uncommon, subject to strict EIA guidelines. The EIA's policy stipulates that weekly data, including SPR crude oil stocks, is rarely revised unless a significant error, omission, or natural disaster occurs that would substantially impact the understanding of U.S. petroleum supplies [^][^][^]. Historically, WPSR revisions happen, on average, once every five years, and any revised values are disseminated in the subsequent scheduled release [^][^][^]. While WPSR documentation indicates revised values with 'R = Revised Data', the available research does not provide the detailed revision history required to calculate a precise quantitative historical revision rate or specific week-by-week counts for SPR crude oil stocks [^][^][^][^][^][^].
10. What WTI crude oil price points have historically triggered Department of Energy SPR repurchases, and how did prices from June to August 2026 compare to these levels?
| DOE Initial Target Price | $67–$72 per barrel [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| DOE Later Target Price | at or below $79.99 per barrel [^][^][^][^][^] |
| WTI Crude Peak June 2026 | near $99.76/bbl [^][^][^] |
The DOE established specific WTI price targets for SPR repurchases. Historically, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) aimed to repurchase WTI crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) when prices ranged from approximately $67 to $72 per barrel, a strategy adopted following the emergency releases in 2022 [^][^][^]. The DOE later revised its target, indicating an aim to purchase oil for the SPR at or below $79.99 per barrel [^][^].
WTI crude oil prices in mid-2026 often exceeded these repurchase thresholds. From June through August 2026, WTI crude oil prices consistently remained higher than the DOE's established historical repurchase target ranges. Prices in June 2026 experienced fluctuations, peaking near $99.76 per barrel early in the month before declining to approximately $70 per barrel by July 1, 2026 [^][^]. However, by August 2026, market prices had increased once more, trading above $80 per barrel and reaching around $84.91 per barrel in late August [^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key market catalysts as of late August 2026 include the continued disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, along with the US administration's "economic D-Day" sanctions against Iran [^] [^] [^] [^] . The US Treasury's "Operation Economic Outcast" targets Iranian economic lifelines, specifically Iranian oil sales, using secondary sanctions [^]. This geopolitical tension creates market uncertainty regarding potential escalation from an economic struggle to broader military action [^][^][^][^].
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts elevated oil prices through 3Q26, with Brent averaging $85/b, attributing this to Hormuz-related inventory drawdowns [^] [^] [^] [^] . A gradual recovery in flows and prices is expected to begin in September 2026 and extend into 2027 [^][^][^][^]. As of the week ending August 14, 2026, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) held 293.43 million barrels of crude oil, marking a weekly decrease of 5.27 million barrels [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The next EIA weekly SPR release, which would include data for the week ending 2026-08-21, is scheduled for 2026-08-26 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Concurrently, China has reduced gasoline and diesel consumption, with policy actions accelerating this reduction, potentially dampening overall oil demand [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 02, 2026
- Closes: August 26, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key market catalysts as of late August 2026 include the continued disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, along with the US administration's "economic D-Day" sanctions against Iran [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The US Treasury's "Operation Economic Outcast" targets Iranian economic lifelines, specifically Iranian oil sales, using secondary sanctions [^] .
- Trigger: This geopolitical tension creates market uncertainty regarding potential escalation from an economic struggle to broader military action [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts elevated oil prices through 3Q26, with Brent averaging $85/b, attributing this to Hormuz-related inventory drawdowns [^] [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T290: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T291: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T292: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T293: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T294: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
