Short Answer

President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order during the week of September 13–19, 2026, confirming the threshold of at least one order this week, as priced by the market at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's primary move was a 79.0 percentage point spike on September 16, 2026, which occurred after President Trump signed an Executive Order. The order, titled "Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support," was issued that day. This action satisfied the market's resolution condition, driving the probability from 20.0% to 99.0%.
An earlier surge on September 12 saw the market jump 63.0 percentage points, from 2.0% to 65.0%. There is no specific news event, announcement, or social media activity in the provided information that coincides with or explains this initial move. The price action appears to reflect anticipation ahead of the resolution week rather than a reaction to a discrete catalyst.
  • The market confirmed 'Above 0' as President Trump signed one Executive Order. A single water quality order was signed mid-week, precisely one order. * This outcome means thresholds for more than one executive order resolve false.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 0 99.0% 100.0% President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order during the specified week, confirming this threshold.
Above 1 86.0% 62.8% President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order, meaning this threshold cannot be met.
Above 2 76.0% 51.3% President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order, meaning this threshold cannot be met.

Current Context

The official register referenced by [1] does not yet list any Executive Orders signed by President Donald Trump during the period of September 13-19, 2026. This includes an order titled "Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support" or any order issued on September 16, 2026 [1].
Donald Trump serves as the 47th President of the United States. He assumed his second term on January 20, 2025, and is scheduled to serve until January 20, 2029 [2][3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2President Donald J. Trumpwhitehouse.gov
  3. 3President Donald J. Trump | Donald J. Trump Presidential Librarytrumplibrary.gov
  4. 4Donald Trumpen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Donald Trump | Birthday, Age, Education, Biography, Impeachments, & Military Parade | Britannicabritannica.com
  6. 6President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  7. 7President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029]...govtrack.us

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 2

📈 September 17, 2026: 58.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 76.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price movement was the signing of an executive order by President Trump on September 16, 2026, regarding water quality improvements [1]. This official announcement, occurring the day before the market spike, likely increased expectations for additional executive actions during the remaining days of the week (September 17-19), thus raising the perceived probability of reaching "Above 2" total executive orders. There is no direct evidence of specific social media activity by key figures predicting "Above 2" executive orders that led to or coincided with this market movement. Therefore, social media was largely irrelevant in this instance.

Outcome: Above 0

📈 September 16, 2026: 79.0pp spike

Price increased from 20.0% to 99.0%

What happened: Despite a 79.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on September 16, 2026, research found no public records of Executive Orders signed by President Trump between September 13-19, 2026 [2]. There is no information indicating any specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor traditional news announcements, that would have triggered such a sharp increase in belief that an Executive Order would be signed during this specific week [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. While general discussions around "executive orders" and President Trump's advisors were noted [13][14], these did not constitute a specific announcement or credible rumor for the market's target period. Therefore, based on the available information, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.

📈 September 12, 2026: 63.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 65.0%

What happened: The prediction market for President Trump signing "Above 0" Executive Orders between September 13-19, 2026, experienced a 63.0 percentage point spike on September 12, 2026. However, the provided sources contain no information regarding specific social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors that occurred on or before September 12, 2026, to explain this movement [15]. While President Trump later signed one Executive Order, "Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support," on September 16, 2026 [1], there is no evidence of a preceding public announcement or social media post precisely driving the market on September 12, 2026. Based on the available information, social media's role as a primary driver cannot be determined.

Outcome: Above 1

📈 September 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 30.0% to 40.0%

What happened: The research provides no direct evidence of social media activity or specific news announcements on September 13, 2026, that would primarily drive a 10.0 percentage point spike for the "Above 1" outcome in executive orders. While President Trump is serving his second term [16] and had signed 281 executive orders by September 15, 2026 [17], no timely official releases or forecasts regarding executive orders for the week of September 13–19 were found [3][5][18]. Therefore, the primary driver for this market movement remains unclear, and social media activity was irrelevant.
Sources (18)
  1. 1Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2Supporting America's Ranchers – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3US allies fret over how Trump might play his Taiwan hand with Xi | Reutersreuters.com
  4. 4Trump lashes out after US Fed hikes ratesthenewdaily.com.au
  5. 5Trump suggests AI needs a ’STRONG AND SMART’ president | CNN Politicscnn.com
  6. 6Trump’s AI denialism explained with one word | CNN Politicscnn.com
  7. 7Kennedy Center battle escalates as feds block Trump name planthehill.com
  8. 8New Marquette Law School national survey finds Democrats expand lead on congressional ballots; Trump approval declines - SSRSssrs.com
  9. 9US Midterm Update: Democratic sweep odds rise on Polymarket to 59% | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
  10. 10Democrats open big midterm edge in new Marquette national polljsonline.com
  11. 11Trump's approval hits 39%, and voters blame his economy for inflation | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  12. 12Democrats Maintain Significant Midterm Advantage in Post-Labor Day Pollbigdatapoll.com
  13. 13Top White House Advisor: The US Empire Is Dying And Socialism Is Coming Next! | David Friedbergyoutube.com
  14. 14Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsiosyoutube.com
  15. 15President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  16. 16President Donald Trump - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  17. 17Donald Trump presidential administration, 2025-2026ballotpedia.org
  18. 18Controlling Advanced Artificial Intelligence: Executive Order 14409 Explained | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on the total number of Executive Orders signed by Donald Trump between September 13th and September 19th. For a contract such as "Above N," a "YES" resolution occurs if more than N Executive Orders are signed during this period, while a "NO" resolution occurs if N or fewer are signed. The provided content does not specify any special settlement conditions or particular data sources for counting the Executive Orders.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 0 $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above 1 $0.89 $0.15 86%
Above 2 $0.82 $0.28 76%

Market Discussion

Donald Trump is serving his second term as President of the United States as of September 17, 2026, and prediction markets regularly track the number of Executive Orders he signs weekly [1][2][3]. However, no specific prediction market data or public consensus is available for the exact number of Executive Orders he will sign during the week of September 13–19, 2026 [4][5][6]. During this period, President Trump did issue a proclamation for Constitution Week on September 16, 2026 [7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Second presidency of Donald Trump - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  4. 4US allies fret over how Trump might play his Taiwan hand with Xi | Reutersreuters.com
  5. 5On the Senate Floor on September 14, 2026 | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  6. 6Congressional Record | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  7. 7Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 81 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score67Caution
Trust score81Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. How does President Trump's weekly average of executive orders in his second term (2025-2026) compare to his first term (2017-2021)?

Second Term Weekly Average3.3 executive orders per week (as of early September 2026) [1][2][3][4]
First Term Weekly Average1.06 executive orders per week [2][3][4]
Second Term Total Orders279 executive orders (as of early September 2026) [1][2][3][4]
President Trump's second term exhibits a significantly higher weekly average of executive orders. As of early September 2026, his administration has averaged roughly 3.3 executive orders per week in his second term [1][2][3][4]. This is notably greater than the average of approximately 1.06 orders per week recorded during his first term [2][3][4].
Specific data highlights increased executive order issuance in the second term. In his first term, from 2017 to 2021, President Trump issued a total of 220 executive orders [2][3][4]. For his ongoing second term, which commenced in January 2025, he has issued 279 executive orders as of early September 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This current pace translates to an estimated 173-175 orders per year [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1EO Watch — Executive Order Tracker | Capitol Tracecapitoltrace.com
  2. 2Trump issued six executive orders in August, bringing his second-term total to 277 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Executive Orders | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
  4. 4Executive Orders | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu

7. What policy debates or events in September 2026 likely prompted the executive order on water quality signed during the market week?

Executive Order SignedSeptember 16, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Revoked Order2009 Executive Order 13508 (Chesapeake Bay) [1][2][3][4]
Prediction Market WeekSeptember 13–19, 2026 [5][6]
President Trump signed a significant water quality executive order on September 16, 2026. Titled 'Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support,' this action effectively revoked Executive Order 13508, which was issued in 2009 and focused on the Chesapeake Bay [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets recorded this executive action during the week of September 13–19, 2026 [5][6].
The executive order addressed ongoing policy debates about 'rain taxes.' These discussions centered on stormwater management fees, which are levied by local municipalities [2][3][4]. The administration contended that these fees constituted an unintended and burdensome consequence, directly stemming from the original 2009 mandate on water quality [2][3][4].
The order specifically directs the EPA to collaborate with regional jurisdictions. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is mandated to work with jurisdictions across the Chesapeake Bay watershed [3]. This collaboration aims to both assess and alleviate the financial burden that these stormwater fees place on residents in the affected areas [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Provides Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3Trump Revokes 2009 Chesapeake Bay Order | The Epoch Timestheepochtimes.com
  4. 4Trump signs executive order revoking controversial 'rain tax'citizensvoice.com
  5. 5How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

8. What does the historical data on President Trump's executive orders in 2026 reveal about his typical signing frequency leading up to September?

EOs in 2026 (as of mid-September)51 [1]
Total EOs in second term (as of Sept 15, 2026)281 [1][2][3]
EOs signed in early September 2026At least 3 (between Sept 4-8, 2026) [4][5][6][7]
President Trump signed 51 executive orders in 2026 by mid-September. These executive orders, numbered 14372 through 14422, were signed within the calendar year 2026 [1]. Cumulatively, since the start of his second presidential term on January 20, 2025, President Trump had issued a total of 281 executive orders as of September 15, 2026 [1][2][3].
Several executive orders were signed during early September 2026. Between September 4 and September 8, 2026, President Trump signed at least three executive orders [4][5][6][7]. Specifically, Executive Orders 14424 and 14425 were issued on September 4 [4][5][7], followed by Executive Order 14427 on September 8 [4][6]. However, the existing historical data is insufficient to establish President Trump's typical executive order signing frequency leading up to September 2026.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Federal Register:: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
  2. 2Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Trump Executive Orders - Official Presidential Documents Trackertrumpexecutiveorders.com
  4. 4Presidential Documentswhitehouse.gov
  5. 5Federal Register:: Promoting Fair Competition in Livestock Markets and Expanding Market Access for American Meat Producersfederalregister.gov
  6. 6Federal Register:: Adjusting Certain Delegations Under the Defense Production Actfederalregister.gov
  7. 7Federal Register:: Supporting America's Ranchersfederalregister.gov

9. What are the most reliable public sources for tracking President Trump's executive orders in near real-time for the 2026 calendar year?

Official Public SourcesFederal Register (federalregister.gov) and White House website (whitehouse.gov) [1][2][3]
Third-Party TrackersCapitol Trace (EO Watch), Ballotpedia, and Executive-orders.com [4][5][6][7]
Most Recent Executive Order DateSeptember 8, 2026 (EO 14426 and EO 14427) [5][6]
Official government sources reliably track President Trump's executive orders. The Federal Register (federalregister.gov) and the White House website (whitehouse.gov) are considered the most reliable public channels for monitoring these directives [1][2][3]. While the Federal Register is recognized as the authoritative publisher of presidential documents, it typically experiences a reporting delay between the signing date and official publication [1][3]. The White House website consistently serves as another dependable public resource [2].
Third-party trackers offer near real-time updates and searchable databases. For more immediate information and additional context, resources such as Capitol Trace (EO Watch), Ballotpedia, and Executive-orders.com provide searchable dashboards [4][5][6][7]. As of September 17, 2026, these public databases do not list any executive orders signed by President Trump between September 13 and September 19, 2026. The most recent executive orders recorded by these trackers were EO 14426 and EO 14427, both dated September 8, 2026 [5][6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Federal Register:: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
  2. 2Executive Orders – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
  4. 4EO Watch — Executive Order Tracker | Capitol Tracecapitoltrace.com
  5. 5Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Executive Orders — Track & Analyze U.S. Presidential Ordersexecutive-orders.com
  7. 7Executive Branch Tracker: Presidents, Orders, Proclamations, Statements, and Vetoes - LegiListlegilist.com

10. What market-moving news or statements on September 12, 2026 might explain the 63-point price spike before the observation period began?

Dow Jones Industrial Average gain (Sept 12, 2026)509.19 points (approx. 1%) [1]
Crude oil price surge (Sept 12, 2026)Past $100 per barrel [2][3][4][5][6]
30-year fixed mortgage rate (week of Sept 12, 2026)7.12% [7][8]
The research does not provide specific data regarding a 63-point spike in prediction market odds. The available information does not detail real-time contract odds for the prediction market concerning the number of Executive Orders Trump will sign or any related 63-point price spike before the observation period began [9]. However, September 12, 2026, was marked by significant general market activity influenced by various factors. On this date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average notably gained 509.19 points, an approximate 1% increase, following an inflation update that aligned with economist expectations and a temporary ease in oil prices [1].
Geopolitical events significantly impacted crude oil prices on September 12, 2026. Crude oil prices surged past $100 per barrel due to drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, leading to the closure of this critical infrastructure [2][3][4][5][6]. Simultaneously, President Trump publicly linked Iran to these drone attacks as oil prices experienced a rapid increase [2].
These events fostered an environment of persistent inflation fears. The escalating oil prices and geopolitical tensions contributed to widespread concerns about inflation, which notably affected bond markets [7][8]. Over the week of September 12, 2026, 1-year to 7-year Treasury yields experienced a spike of 22-26 basis points [7]. Concurrently, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.12% [7]. In direct response to these inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve subsequently raised interest rates [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations | Newsernewser.com
  2. 2Trump links Iran to drone attack on Saudi pipeline as oil prices spike toward $110cryptobriefing.com
  3. 3Oil Jumped $3, but the Saudi Escape Valve That Kept It Under $100 Is What Actually Changedainvest.com
  4. 4Saudi Arabia Shuts East-West Pipeline After Drone Strikes as Crude Tops $102 - WalletInvestor.comwalletinvestor.com
  5. 5The Pipeline Attack That Changed the Oil Tradeainvest.com
  6. 6Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Pushes Oil Past $100 as Drone Strikes Escalate | Top Tier Brokertoptierbroker.com
  7. 7Long-Term Treasury Yields Spike, 1- to 7-Year Yields Explode, Mortgage Rates Hit 7.12%, Bond Market Gets Spooked | Wolf Streetwolfstreet.com
  8. 8Warsh’s First Rate Hike Is Here. Where Does the S&P 500 Go Next? – Investment Houseinvestmenthouse.com
  9. 9How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  10. 10Fed Raises Rates as Warsh Bucks Trump to Contain Inflation, Future Proof Day Two | Bloomberg...youtube.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

President Donald J. Trump is serving a term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029 [1][2][3]. As of Tuesday, September 15, 2026, he had issued 6 Executive Orders during September 2026 [4]. He continues to issue formal presidential actions, including a proclamation for Constitution Week on September 16, 2026 [5].
There is no publicly available, predictive information or expert consensus regarding the specific number of Executive Orders President Trump will sign during the week of September 13–19, 2026 [6][7]. Presidential activity is determined by ongoing political and administrative priorities, with no fixed schedule for future Executive Orders [4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: October 03, 2026
  • Closes: October 03, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  2. 2Crec 2026 02 24 pt1 pgs645 2.htmcongress.gov
  3. 3President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  4. 42026 Donald J. Trump Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
  5. 5Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  6. 6https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr10211/BILLS-119hr10211ih.htmcongress.gov
  7. 7H. R. 10186congress.gov

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: President Donald J.
  • Trigger: Trump is serving a term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029 [1][2][3].
  • Trigger: As of Tuesday, September 15, 2026, he had issued 6 Executive Orders during September 2026 [4].
  • Trigger: He continues to issue formal presidential actions, including a proclamation for Constitution Week on September 16, 2026 [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  2. 2Crec 2026 02 24 pt1 pgs645 2.htmcongress.gov
  3. 3President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  4. 42026 Donald J. Trump Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
  5. 5Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov

14. Related News

15. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-2: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-1: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-0: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26AUG29-2: YES (Sep 04, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26AUG29-1: YES (Sep 04, 2026)