How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/13 - 9/19)
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- The market confirmed 'Above 0' as President Trump signed one Executive Order. A single water quality order was signed mid-week, precisely one order. * This outcome means thresholds for more than one executive order resolve false.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | 99.0% | 100.0% | President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order during the specified week, confirming this threshold. |
| Above 1 | 86.0% | 62.8% | President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order, meaning this threshold cannot be met. |
| Above 2 | 76.0% | 51.3% | President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order, meaning this threshold cannot be met. |
Current Context
Sources (7)
- 1Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 2President Donald J. Trumpwhitehouse.gov
- 3President Donald J. Trump | Donald J. Trump Presidential Librarytrumplibrary.gov
- 4Donald Trumpen.wikipedia.org
- 5Donald Trump | Birthday, Age, Education, Biography, Impeachments, & Military Parade | Britannicabritannica.com
- 6President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 7President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029]...govtrack.us
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 2
📈 September 17, 2026: 58.0pp spike
Price increased from 18.0% to 76.0%
Outcome: Above 0
📈 September 16, 2026: 79.0pp spike
Price increased from 20.0% to 99.0%
📈 September 12, 2026: 63.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 65.0%
Outcome: Above 1
📈 September 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 30.0% to 40.0%
Sources (18)
- 1Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 2Supporting America's Ranchers – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 3US allies fret over how Trump might play his Taiwan hand with Xi | Reutersreuters.com
- 4Trump lashes out after US Fed hikes ratesthenewdaily.com.au
- 5Trump suggests AI needs a ’STRONG AND SMART’ president | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 6Trump’s AI denialism explained with one word | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 7Kennedy Center battle escalates as feds block Trump name planthehill.com
- 8New Marquette Law School national survey finds Democrats expand lead on congressional ballots; Trump approval declines - SSRSssrs.com
- 9US Midterm Update: Democratic sweep odds rise on Polymarket to 59% | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
- 10Democrats open big midterm edge in new Marquette national polljsonline.com
- 11Trump's approval hits 39%, and voters blame his economy for inflation | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
- 12Democrats Maintain Significant Midterm Advantage in Post-Labor Day Pollbigdatapoll.com
- 13Top White House Advisor: The US Empire Is Dying And Socialism Is Coming Next! | David Friedbergyoutube.com
- 14Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsiosyoutube.com
- 15President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 16President Donald Trump - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 17Donald Trump presidential administration, 2025-2026ballotpedia.org
- 18Controlling Advanced Artificial Intelligence: Executive Order 14409 Explained | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the total number of Executive Orders signed by Donald Trump between September 13th and September 19th. For a contract such as "Above N," a "YES" resolution occurs if more than N Executive Orders are signed during this period, while a "NO" resolution occurs if N or fewer are signed. The provided content does not specify any special settlement conditions or particular data sources for counting the Executive Orders.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 1 | $0.89 | $0.15 | 86% |
| Above 2 | $0.82 | $0.28 | 76% |
Market Discussion
Donald Trump is serving his second term as President of the United States as of September 17, 2026, and prediction markets regularly track the number of Executive Orders he signs weekly [1][2][3]. However, no specific prediction market data or public consensus is available for the exact number of Executive Orders he will sign during the week of September 13–19, 2026 [4][5][6]. During this period, President Trump did issue a proclamation for Constitution Week on September 16, 2026 [7].
Sources (7)
- 1Second presidency of Donald Trump - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 2How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 4US allies fret over how Trump might play his Taiwan hand with Xi | Reutersreuters.com
- 5On the Senate Floor on September 14, 2026 | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 6Congressional Record | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 7Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
5. Trust Index
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How does President Trump's weekly average of executive orders in his second term (2025-2026) compare to his first term (2017-2021)?
| Second Term Weekly Average | 3.3 executive orders per week (as of early September 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| First Term Weekly Average | 1.06 executive orders per week [2][3][4] |
| Second Term Total Orders | 279 executive orders (as of early September 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
Sources (4)
- 1EO Watch — Executive Order Tracker | Capitol Tracecapitoltrace.com
- 2Trump issued six executive orders in August, bringing his second-term total to 277 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 3Executive Orders | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
- 4Executive Orders | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
7. What policy debates or events in September 2026 likely prompted the executive order on water quality signed during the market week?
| Executive Order Signed | September 16, 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Revoked Order | 2009 Executive Order 13508 (Chesapeake Bay) [1][2][3][4] |
| Prediction Market Week | September 13–19, 2026 [5][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 2Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Provides Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 3Trump Revokes 2009 Chesapeake Bay Order | The Epoch Timestheepochtimes.com
- 4Trump signs executive order revoking controversial 'rain tax'citizensvoice.com
- 5How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. What does the historical data on President Trump's executive orders in 2026 reveal about his typical signing frequency leading up to September?
| EOs in 2026 (as of mid-September) | 51 [1] |
|---|---|
| Total EOs in second term (as of Sept 15, 2026) | 281 [1][2][3] |
| EOs signed in early September 2026 | At least 3 (between Sept 4-8, 2026) [4][5][6][7] |
Sources (7)
- 1Federal Register:: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 2Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Trump Executive Orders - Official Presidential Documents Trackertrumpexecutiveorders.com
- 4Presidential Documentswhitehouse.gov
- 5Federal Register:: Promoting Fair Competition in Livestock Markets and Expanding Market Access for American Meat Producersfederalregister.gov
- 6Federal Register:: Adjusting Certain Delegations Under the Defense Production Actfederalregister.gov
- 7Federal Register:: Supporting America's Ranchersfederalregister.gov
9. What are the most reliable public sources for tracking President Trump's executive orders in near real-time for the 2026 calendar year?
| Official Public Sources | Federal Register (federalregister.gov) and White House website (whitehouse.gov) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Third-Party Trackers | Capitol Trace (EO Watch), Ballotpedia, and Executive-orders.com [4][5][6][7] |
| Most Recent Executive Order Date | September 8, 2026 (EO 14426 and EO 14427) [5][6] |
Sources (7)
- 1Federal Register:: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 2Executive Orders – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 3Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 4EO Watch — Executive Order Tracker | Capitol Tracecapitoltrace.com
- 5Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Executive Orders — Track & Analyze U.S. Presidential Ordersexecutive-orders.com
- 7Executive Branch Tracker: Presidents, Orders, Proclamations, Statements, and Vetoes - LegiListlegilist.com
10. What market-moving news or statements on September 12, 2026 might explain the 63-point price spike before the observation period began?
| Dow Jones Industrial Average gain (Sept 12, 2026) | 509.19 points (approx. 1%) [1] |
|---|---|
| Crude oil price surge (Sept 12, 2026) | Past $100 per barrel [2][3][4][5][6] |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate (week of Sept 12, 2026) | 7.12% [7][8] |
Sources (10)
- 1US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations | Newsernewser.com
- 2Trump links Iran to drone attack on Saudi pipeline as oil prices spike toward $110cryptobriefing.com
- 3Oil Jumped $3, but the Saudi Escape Valve That Kept It Under $100 Is What Actually Changedainvest.com
- 4Saudi Arabia Shuts East-West Pipeline After Drone Strikes as Crude Tops $102 - WalletInvestor.comwalletinvestor.com
- 5The Pipeline Attack That Changed the Oil Tradeainvest.com
- 6Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Pushes Oil Past $100 as Drone Strikes Escalate | Top Tier Brokertoptierbroker.com
- 7Long-Term Treasury Yields Spike, 1- to 7-Year Yields Explode, Mortgage Rates Hit 7.12%, Bond Market Gets Spooked | Wolf Streetwolfstreet.com
- 8Warsh’s First Rate Hike Is Here. Where Does the S&P 500 Go Next? – Investment Houseinvestmenthouse.com
- 9How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 10Fed Raises Rates as Warsh Bucks Trump to Contain Inflation, Future Proof Day Two | Bloomberg...youtube.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 03, 2026
- Closes: October 03, 2026
Sources (7)
- 1President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 2Crec 2026 02 24 pt1 pgs645 2.htmcongress.gov
- 3President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 42026 Donald J. Trump Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 5Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 6https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr10211/BILLS-119hr10211ih.htmcongress.gov
- 7H. R. 10186congress.gov
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: President Donald J.
- Trigger: Trump is serving a term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029 [1][2][3].
- Trigger: As of Tuesday, September 15, 2026, he had issued 6 Executive Orders during September 2026 [4].
- Trigger: He continues to issue formal presidential actions, including a proclamation for Constitution Week on September 16, 2026 [5].
Sources (5)
- 1President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 2Crec 2026 02 24 pt1 pgs645 2.htmcongress.gov
- 3President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 42026 Donald J. Trump Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 5Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-2: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-1: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-0: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26AUG29-2: YES (Sep 04, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26AUG29-1: YES (Sep 04, 2026)