Short Answer

President Trump signed three Executive Orders between September 13 and September 19, 2026, confirming he issued at least one for the week; the market priced this outcome at 99%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market moved decisively on September 17 after President Trump signed two Executive Orders, bringing the weekly total to three. The confirmation of "Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage" and "Restoring American Saltwater Angling and Recreation" via news reports followed a separate order signed on September 16. The probability of the "Above 2" outcome jumped 44 percentage points to 99.0% on the news, with volume of 2,300 contracts indicating conviction as the market priced in a resolved outcome.
The September 17 price spike was preceded by a smaller 14-point rise on September 16. That move appears driven by the signing of the week's first order and public anticipation of more to follow, which was a subject of broadcast discussion. The drivers for earlier price increases on September 12 and September 13 are not apparent from available information, as no corresponding news announcements or social media activity were identified.
  • Since last update (~24h): Model conviction for 'Above 2' surged (+48.7pp); the edge flipped, reflecting our model leading.
  • Model probability for 'Above 1' increased (+37.2pp), with the edge flipping, model_led.
  • Headline probabilities and confidence remained unchanged for both model and market.
  • President Trump signed three Executive Orders between September 13 and 19, 2026.
  • Orders included 'Water Quality Improvements' on September 16 and 'Hunting Heritage' on September 17.

Current Context

President Trump signed three Executive Orders between September 13 and 19, 2026. These formal orders included "Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support," signed on September 16 [1]. "Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage" [2] and "Restoring American Saltwater Angling and Recreation" [3] were both signed on September 17.
Additionally, a Presidential Memorandum was issued during this period. On September 16, 2026, President Trump issued a Memorandum to department heads regarding "Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement" [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  4. 4Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 2

📈 September 17, 2026: 80.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 98.0%

What happened: No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified in the provided research for September 17, 2026. The 80 percentage point spike in the "Above 2" outcome was primarily driven by breaking traditional news reports on that day, which announced President Trump had signed two executive orders [1][2][3][4]. These executive orders, titled "Reinvigorating America’s Hunting Heritage" and "Restoring American Saltwater Angling and Recreation," were reported by major outlets and confirmed by the White House for at least one action on September 17, 2026 [1][2][3][5][4]. This news activity directly coincided with the market movement, likely prompting traders to anticipate a total of three or more executive orders for the week, given these confirmed actions and the remaining days in the period [1][2][3][5][4].

Outcome: Above 1

📈 September 16, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 41.0% to 55.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 14.0 percentage point spike on September 16, 2026, was likely public anticipation of forthcoming Executive Orders. A broadcast discussion included a direct question about "executive orders coming out from the president to follow," indicating such expectations [6]. This anticipation likely led the price movement, as President Trump later signed two Executive Orders, "Reinvigorating America’s Hunting Heritage" and "Restoring American Saltwater Angling and Recreation," on September 17, 2026 [5][7]. Social media activity was not explicitly identified as a primary driver; instead, traditional media discussion appears to be the main accelerant.

📈 September 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 30.0% to 40.0%

What happened: No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were found in the provided sources to explain the prediction market price movement on September 13, 2026. Traditional news reports from that period focused on interest rates and a Supreme Court ruling, with no announcements regarding upcoming Executive Orders [8][9][10]. While President Trump ultimately signed four Executive Orders later that week (September 16-17) [5][7][11][12], the available information does not specify any event on September 13, 2026, that would have driven the market's early anticipation. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a driver based on the available data.

📈 September 12, 2026: 28.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 30.0%

What happened: There is no publicly available social media activity or traditional news announcement provided that appears to have caused the 28.0 percentage point spike on September 12, 2026. Although President Trump later signed two executive orders on September 17, 2026 ('Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage' and 'Restoring American Saltwater Angling and Recreation') [5][7], these actions occurred after the market movement. The available research does not indicate a specific social media post or news event leading up to or coinciding with the September 12th price increase that predicted these orders. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price movement.
Sources (12)
  1. 1Trump rolls back hunting and fishing restrictionsthehill.com
  2. 2President Trump signs executive orders expanding hunting and fishing accessrsbnetwork.com
  3. 3Trump Issues Executive Order to Open 2 National Monuments to Hunting, Access More Public Land, Protect Lead Ammo | Outdoor Lifeoutdoorlife.com
  4. 4Trump signs orders to widen hunting, fishing access on US federal landnewkerala.com
  5. 5Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  6. 6Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsiosyoutube.com
  7. 7RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  8. 8Trump Attacks Fed Hike, Suggests Tariffs on Europe | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  9. 9Fed Raises Rates as Warsh Bucks Trump to Contain Inflation, Future Proof Day Two | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  10. 10Trump Mail-In Request Rejected; Obama Weighs In on AI | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  11. 11Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  12. 12Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A 'YES' resolution for a contract, such as 'Above X' Executive Orders, is triggered if President Trump signs more than the specified number of Executive Orders. Conversely, a 'NO' resolution occurs if he signs that number or fewer within the defined period. The market specifically resolves based on Executive Orders signed between September 13 and September 19, with no other special settlement conditions indicated.

Market Discussion

During the week of September 13–19, 2026, Donald J. Trump signed one Executive Order, titled "Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage," on September 17, 2026 [1]. Additionally, President Trump issued a presidential proclamation on September 16, 2026, designating "Constitution Week" [2][1]. There is no public or expert-curated data available to predict the specific number of executive orders President Trump will sign during this period [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3Crec 2026 02 24 pt1 pgs645 2.htmcongress.gov

5. What was the exact timeline of announcements and signings for each Executive Order issued by President Trump between September 13 and September 19, 2026?

Research on Executive OrdersIncluded questions about executive orders from the president [1]
President Trump's CriticismCriticizing the Fed for deciding to raise interest rates [2]
Trump's Stance on RatesQuestions regarding conversations with President Trump about what he thinks about a rate [3]
The available research did not identify executive orders for the specified timeframe. The search for information regarding Executive Orders issued by President Trump between September 13 and September 19, 2026, did not yield sufficient details to provide an exact timeline of announcements or signings. No specific Executive Orders, their announcements, or signings were found for this particular period.
Related research touched upon broader presidential and economic discussions. While specific executive order details for the requested period were not located, the research did include general inquiries about the issuance of executive orders from the president [1]. Furthermore, other information gathered pertained to President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates [2], and questions surrounding discussions with him about his perspective on a rate adjustment [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsiosyoutube.com
  2. 2Trump Attacks Fed Hike, Suggests Tariffs on Europe | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  3. 3Fed Raises Rates as Warsh Bucks Trump to Contain Inflation, Future Proof Day Two | Bloomberg...youtube.com

6. What political or policy goals drove the specific subject matter of the Executive Orders signed by President Trump during the week of September 13-19, 2026?

Executive Orders signed (Sept 13-19, 2026)1 [1]
Broad Policy Goals (2nd Trump admin)Aggressive tariffs, border security, deregulation, energy dominance [2][3]
Fed Policy StanceRaised interest rates to contain inflation [4]
President Trump signed one Executive Order during the week of September 13-19, 2026 [1]. While the specific policy goals driving this particular Executive Order are not detailed in the available information, the broader policy objectives of a second Trump administration in this period included aggressive tariff policies, enhanced border security, deregulation, and energy dominance [2][3].
President Trump expressed views on monetary policy and international trade. During this week, President Trump voiced criticism of the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates [5]. He also suggested imposing tariffs on Europe [5]. The Federal Reserve had increased interest rates with the stated aim of containing inflation [4].
Future executive actions might address a range of scientific and social policies. There were also questions regarding whether future Executive Orders might address the president's science agenda, touching on areas such as anti-science claims, Dr. Fauci's perceived impact, diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, and policies related to China [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2President Donald J. Trumpwhitehouse.gov
  3. 3Trump Tariff Trackeratlanticcouncil.org
  4. 4Fed Raises Rates as Warsh Bucks Trump to Contain Inflation, Future Proof Day Two | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  5. 5Trump Attacks Fed Hike, Suggests Tariffs on Europe | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  6. 6Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsiosyoutube.com

7. How does the volume of Executive Orders signed by President Trump from September 13-19, 2026, compare to his weekly average for the rest of 2026?

General Executive Order ResearchResearch discussed whether executive orders are coming out from the president to follow [1]
President Trump on Fed RatesCriticized the Fed for deciding to raise interest rates [2]
Conversations with President TrumpQuestions regarding his thoughts on a rate [3]
The available research does not contain sufficient information to determine how the volume of Executive Orders signed by President Trump from September 13-19, 2026, compares to his weekly average for the rest of 2026. The provided facts lack specific dates for 2026, as well as any numerical data regarding executive orders. Therefore, a comparison to a weekly average for 2026 cannot be made based solely on the information at hand.
Available facts discuss broader executive orders and economic policy criticisms. While the core question could not be answered due to a lack of data, some related information was present. One fact discussed research concerning whether executive orders are being issued by the president [1]. Additionally, other facts mention President Trump criticizing the Federal Reserve for deciding to raise interest rates [2], and questions regarding conversations with President Trump about his thoughts on a rate [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsiosyoutube.com
  2. 2Trump Attacks Fed Hike, Suggests Tariffs on Europe | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  3. 3Fed Raises Rates as Warsh Bucks Trump to Contain Inflation, Future Proof Day Two | Bloomberg...youtube.com

8. What are the definitive public sources for tracking all Executive Orders signed by President Trump in real-time during September 2026?

Official Tracking SourcesFederal Register, National Archives [1][2]
Executive Orders Signed (as of 2026)281 [3]
Dedicated Federal Register Section2026 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders [1]
Official U.S. government sources definitively track Executive Orders. The Federal Register (federalregister.gov) and the National Archives (archives.gov) serve as the definitive public sources for monitoring these directives [1][2]. Specifically, the Federal Register includes a dedicated section for 2026 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders, which is a key resource for following his presidential actions [1].
President Trump signed 281 executive orders by September 2026. As of September 15, 2026, President Donald Trump, during his second term, had issued a total of 281 executive orders [3]. While the Federal Register and National Archives are identified as the definitive official repositories for these orders, the research does not provide further details on specific mechanisms for real-time tracking beyond these established government websites.
Sources (3)
  1. 12026 Donald J. Trump Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
  2. 2Executive Orders | National Archivesarchives.gov
  3. 3Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026ballotpedia.org

9. What distinguishes an 'Executive Order' from a 'Presidential Memorandum,' and which of President Trump's directives from September 13-19, 2026, fall into each category?

Executive Order Publication RequirementMust be published in the Federal Register and are numbered consecutively [1][2][3]
Presidential Memorandum Publication RequirementNot required by law to be published in the Federal Register [1][2][4][3]
Executive Order Legal Authority CitationMust cite the specific constitutional or statutory authority [1][2]
Executive Orders are formal, legally binding presidential directives. These mandates are issued by the President to federal agencies and carry the full force of law, provided they are based on existing statutes or the U.S. Constitution [4][3][5][6]. Executive Orders are primarily utilized for major policy decisions and are legally required to be published in the Federal Register, numbered consecutively, and must cite their specific constitutional or statutory authority [1][2][3][7][8]. They dictate the implementation of federal laws and hold significant legal precedence, meaning they cannot be altered or superseded by a presidential memorandum [8][9][1].
Presidential Memoranda are less formal directives for federal agencies. These presidential instruments are also issued to manage federal government agencies and can achieve objectives similar to Executive Orders [1][2][10][11]. However, memoranda are generally considered less formal and do not carry the same legal requirements for publication in the Federal Register or the inclusion of a justification of presidential authority [6][1][2][12]. While publication is necessary for memoranda to possess "general applicability and legal effect," they are often used for policy guidance and can be amended or rescinded by other directives, unlike Executive Orders [1][6].
No specific directives by President Trump were identified for September 13-19, 2026. The provided research did not contain information identifying any specific Executive Orders or Presidential Memoranda issued by President Trump during the period of September 13-19, 2026.
Sources (12)
  1. 1wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2ballotpedia.org
  3. 3pbs.org
  4. 4findlaw.com
  5. 5naceweb.org
  6. 6reddit.com
  7. 7wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  8. 8acslaw.org
  9. 9aclu.org
  10. 10yale.edumedicine.yale.edu
  11. 11psu.edusites.psu.edu
  12. 12medlearn.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

President Donald Trump signed three executive orders during the week of September 13 to September 19, 2026. These included 'Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support' on September 16 [1], 'Reinvigorating America’s Hunting Heritage' on September 17 [2], and 'Restoring American Saltwater Angling and Recreation' on September 17 [3]. A memorandum titled 'Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement' was also issued on September 16, 2026 [4], an action distinct from an executive order [4].
President Trump's second term runs from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029 [5][6]. There is no publicly available predictive information or scheduled agenda specifying the exact number of executive orders he will sign during the week of September 13–19, 2026 [7][8]. Presidential actions, including executive orders, are published in the Federal Register, and their issuance reflects administrative discretion rather than a fixed schedule [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: October 03, 2026
  • Closes: October 03, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  4. 4Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  5. 5Presidents of the United Statesgovtrack.us
  6. 6President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029]...govtrack.us
  7. 7Controlling Advanced Artificial Intelligence: Executive Order 14409 Explained | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  8. 8USPS Ballot Mail Rule: Overview and Potential Impact | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  9. 9thejessicafelts/eo-checkergithub.com

12. Related News

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13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-2: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-1: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-0: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26AUG29-2: YES (Sep 04, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26AUG29-1: YES (Sep 04, 2026)