Topic tracker · Politics
EO this week?
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new EO this week? markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 7, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (5/3 - 5/9) | May 24, 2026 | 62.8% vs 86.0% | Report → |
| How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (4/19 - 4/25) | May 3, 2026 | 2.0% vs 2.0% | Report → |
