Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Above 0, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market shows a decisive downward trend, opening at a 74.0% probability and collapsing to a current price of 2.0%. The market experienced several significant price drops as its resolution period concluded. The probability fell by 15.0 percentage points on April 22, followed by a dramatic 57.0 point crash on April 24, and a final 10.0 point drop on April 25. These movements coincide directly with the market's resolution window of April 19 to April 25. The sharp declines late in the week indicate that as the deadline approached without any news of an executive order being signed, traders rapidly sold their "YES" shares, believing the event was increasingly unlikely to occur. The final drops on the 24th and 25th represent the market reacting to the last moments of the resolution period passing, solidifying the consensus that the condition would not be met.
The total traded volume of 105,200 contracts suggests significant engagement and conviction among participants. The price action indicates a complete reversal in market sentiment. An initial high confidence that at least one executive order would be signed was entirely erased over the course of the week. The initial price near 74.0% served as an early ceiling that was never challenged. As the price fell, it broke through various potential support levels without pause, ultimately finding a floor near 1.0-2.0%. This floor represents the near-certainty of a "NO" resolution, where the market price reflects the overwhelming belief that no executive orders were signed within the specified timeframe.
  • Trump signed an Executive Order on April 18, 2026, just before the market week.
  • Trump maintained a light public schedule during the specified target week.
  • Senate held a final vote on a Trump-backed voter integrity bill.
  • Major international economic summits concluded prior to the target week.
  • No further policy actions or Executive Orders were identified this week.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 April 25, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 13.0% to 3.0%

Outcome: Above 0

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📉 April 24, 2026: 57.0pp drop

Price decreased from 71.0% to 14.0%

Outcome: Above 0

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📉 April 22, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 77.0% to 62.0%

Outcome: Above 0

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the President signs more than zero Executive Orders between April 19, 2026, and April 25, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. An "Executive Order" must be numbered, formally titled, signed by the President, published in the Federal Register, and have the force of law. Resolution is verified by the Federal Register, and the signing date as recorded there determines which period an order belongs to, with the market closing by May 2, 2026.

Market Discussion

Traders are debating if an Executive Order published on April 22nd counts towards the 4/19-4/25 period. Proponents of "Yes" point to the Federal Register showing a new EO, implying activity within the week. However, "No" arguments highlight that the market rules specify using the signing date, not the publication date, and the EO in question was reportedly signed on April 18th, placing it outside the relevant timeframe. This interpretation suggests a consensus leaning towards zero Executive Orders for the specified week, aligning with the low "Yes" probability.

5. What Policy Actions Accelerated Mental Illness Treatments in April 2026?

Executive Order SignedApril 18, 2026 [1]
Policy FocusTherapeutic psychedelics for serious mental illness [1]
White House Fact Sheet"Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness" (April 2026) [2]
President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order on therapeutic psychedelics on April 18, 2026. This key policy initiative, focused on accelerating medical treatments for serious mental illness, materialized immediately preceding the week of April 19-25, 2026. The signing of this Executive Order specifically addressing therapeutic psychedelics confirmed its final stage of review by the Office of Management and Budget or White House Counsel's Office, marking it as a significant policy development for the period [1]. This commitment was further underscored by a White House Fact Sheet released in April 2026, titled "Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness" [2].
No specific regulatory actions were detailed as under review for that week. While specific regulatory actions still undergoing review for the exact week of April 19-25, 2026, were not provided, the completed Executive Order and its accompanying fact sheet illustrate substantial government activity. Additionally, evidence of ongoing governmental policy efforts was found in various regulatory actions published in Federal Register documents between April 22-23, 2026 [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1TRANSCRIPT: President Trump Signs an Exe... | The Senate Democratic Caucusdemocrats.senate.gov
  2. 2Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump is Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3Federal Register, Volume 91 Issue 77 (Wednesday, April 22, 2026)govinfo.gov

6. What Was President Trump's Public Schedule for April 19-25, 2026?

Themed Event ScheduledAmerica Reads the Bible event on April 19, 2026 [1], [2]
Factory Tours/SpeechesNone scheduled for April 19-25, 2026 (Research findings) [3]
Psychedelic EO SigningSigned on April 18, 2026 [4] (outside this period)
President Trump's schedule included one thematically-related event during April 19-25, 2026. On Sunday, April 19, 2026, a pre-recorded "America Reads the Bible" event originated from the Oval Office, where President Trump was scheduled to read a Bible verse. This religiously themed event, which followed a public disagreement with the Pope, could have served as a politically advantageous backdrop for the signing of an Executive Order pertaining to religious freedom or faith-based initiatives [1], [2].
No other public events suitable for Executive Order signings were scheduled. The available sources for President Trump's public schedule between April 19-25, 2026, do not indicate any factory tours or speeches at industry summits that would typically provide a backdrop for such a signing [3], [5]. For example, President Trump's schedule for Saturday, April 25, 2026, listed no public events [6].
An Executive Order regarding psychedelic therapies was signed outside this period. Although an Executive Order accelerating research into psychedelic drug therapies was signed around this time [7], [8], the ceremony for this particular order occurred on April 18, 2026 [4]. This date falls outside the specified April 19-25, 2026, period of inquiry.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Trump to read Bible verse from Oval Office after feud with Pope and deleted AI image | CNN Politicscnn.com
  2. 2Trump to read Bible passage in the Oval Office for America Reads the Bible eventwjla.com
  3. 3April 2026 - President's Public Schedule | Factba.serollcall.com
  4. 4LIVE REPLAY: President Trump Signs Executive Orders - 4/18/26youtube.com
  5. 5April 2026 - President's Public Schedule | Factba.serollcall.com
  6. 6President Donald Trump's Schedule for Saturday, April 25, 2026 | CDNconservativedailynews.com
  7. 7Trump signs executive order accelerating research into psychedelic drug therapies | News | kake.comkake.com
  8. 8Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump is Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness – The White Housewhitehouse.gov

7. Did Trump-backed Legislation Pass, Precluding an Executive Order (April 2026)?

SAVE America Act VoteFinal floor vote in Senate, week of April 19-25, 2026 [1]
SAVE America Act OutcomeFailed to pass in the Senate [2]
Other Major LegislationNone scheduled for final floor vote that would render Executive Order redundant [3]
Senate voted on Trump-backed voter integrity bill. During the week of April 19-25, 2026, the U.S. Senate conducted a final floor vote on the "SAVE America Act," a significant legislative initiative strongly aligned with former President Trump's stated policy goals concerning voter integrity [1]. This bill, which explicitly received Trump's backing, aimed to influence the U.S. voting process, and its consideration and vote outcome were reported by April 25, 2026 [1].
The bill failed, not precluding an Executive Order on the same topic. Despite aligning with Trump's priorities, the "SAVE America Act" did not achieve passage in the Senate [2]. Therefore, while a major piece of legislation was indeed voted upon, its unsuccessful outcome indicates that it would not make an Executive Order on voter integrity redundant or unnecessary. Furthermore, no other major legislation aligned with broad Trump policy goals was scheduled for a final floor vote in either the House or Senate during this specific week that would render an Executive Order unnecessary, even considering other legislative activities [3]. A Senate-adopted FY2026 Budget Resolution (S.Con.Res. 33) was also in effect, but as a non-binding resolution, it would not duplicate or supersede an Executive Order [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Did the SAVE Act pass? SAVE America Act status, Senate vote resultsapp.com
  2. 2SAVE Act Fails in Senate as 4 GOP Senators Vote Noconservativeinstitute.org
  3. 3Tuesday, April 21st, 2026 - Republican Cloakroomrepcloakroom.house.gov
  4. 4S.Con.Res. 33: The Senate-Adopted FY2026 Budget Resolution - EveryCRSReport.comeverycrsreport.com

8. Did Trump Sign Executive Orders After Congressional Recess?

Friday Night AnnouncementsOften used for 'news dumps' by Trump administration [1]
Purpose of News DumpsTo minimize media attention and scrutiny [1]
EOs Post-Recess PatternNo statistical pattern found after congressional recess [2]
Trump administration strategically timed public announcements, often using Friday "news dumps." During his prior term, Donald Trump's administration employed a strategy of timing public announcements and disclosures, frequently utilizing Friday nights for what journalists termed 'news dumps' [1]. This approach aimed to release administrative actions or documents when public and media scrutiny were perceived to be lower, such as at the end of the work week. While specific statistics on the batching of multiple, unrelated Executive Orders signed on Friday afternoons are not provided in the research, the established pattern of 'Friday-night news dumps' suggests a broader tendency to consolidate and release information, which could encompass the timing of Executive Order announcements or signings, at these less visible times [1].
No statistical pattern links Executive Order signings to post-recess periods. However, based on the provided research, there is no discernible statistical pattern indicating that Donald Trump specifically signed Executive Orders in 'batches' or with increased frequency during weeks immediately following a congressional recess. The available resources primarily focus on comprehensive lists of Executive Orders and general commentary on communication strategies, without offering detailed analysis linking Executive Order signing dates to the congressional calendar in this specific manner [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Trump’s pointless Friday-night news dumps - Columbia Journalism Reviewcjr.org
  2. 2Federal Register :: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov

9. What Major International Events Are Scheduled for April 19-25, 2026?

Major Meetings ConclusionApril 18, 2026 [1]
UN Security Council StatusActive "Programme of Work" throughout April 2026 [2]
G7/G20 Summits (Apr 19-25)None explicitly scheduled [3]
Major international economic summits conclude before the target week. Primary international gatherings, including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, G7, and G20 meetings, are scheduled to conclude in Washington, D.C. by April 18, 2026 [1]. Consequently, no specific G7 or G20 summits or ministerial meetings are explicitly scheduled for the week of April 19-25, 2026 [3]. While the policy implications of these earlier gatherings might be relevant, no new high-level summits are specified within the target timeframe.
The UN Security Council could prompt a presidential Executive Order. The United Nations Security Council is expected to maintain an active 'Programme of Work' and 'Monthly Forecast' throughout April 2026 [2]. Any significant development or vote during April 19-25, 2026, could potentially prompt a US President to issue an Executive Order. This foreign policy tool might be used in response to issues such as sanctions, human rights, or international interventions, especially considering the monthly rotation of the Security Council presidency [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Banca d’Italia - World Bank, IMF, G7, and G20 meetings in Washington, DC - 13-18 April 2026bancaditalia.it
  2. 2Security Council Programme of Work for April 2026: What's In Blue: Security Council Reportsecuritycouncilreport.org
  3. 3G7 agendaelysee.fr
  4. 4Security Council Presidency | Security Councilmain.un.org

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 17 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXEOWEEK-26APR18-0: YES (Apr 23, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26APR11-0: NO (Apr 19, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26APR04-1: YES (Apr 10, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26APR04-0: YES (Apr 08, 2026)
  • KXEOWEEK-26MAR28-1: YES (Mar 31, 2026)