US gas prices this week
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that US gas prices will be Above 3.760 this week. Current national average prices are $3.99, and petroleum analysts expect prices to exceed $4.00 per gallon by July 20, 2026.
1. Executive Verdict
- Gas prices are predicted to exceed $4.00 due to geopolitical tensions.
- Escalating hostilities and transit disruptions create a "geopolitical premium" for oil.
- High refinery utilization and Texas flooding further support upward price pressure.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.080 | 1.0% | 1.3% | Tight refining capacity and ongoing geopolitical instability contribute to upward price pressure. |
| Above 4.100 | 1.0% | 1.3% | Rapidly rising prices are influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. |
| Above 3.960 | 99.0% | 99.3% | Current national average gas prices are at $3.99 and rapidly rising. |
| Above 4.060 | 2.0% | 3.9% | Pervasive bullish sentiment and recent price movements support continued upward momentum. |
| Above 4.000 | 86.0% | 90.7% | Petroleum analysts expect gas prices to exceed $4.00 per gallon by July 20, 2026. |
Current Context
National average gas prices sharply increased amid geopolitical instability. As of July 18, 2026, the U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.94 to $3.98 [^][^][^][^]. This represents a nearly 20-cent increase in approximately 10 days, primarily driven by renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and regional geopolitical instability [^][^][^][^]. Petroleum analysts, including Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy, predict the national average will reach or exceed the $4 per gallon threshold within 7 to 10 days from mid-July 2026 [^][^][^]. Prediction markets on Kalshi assigned a 90% to 93% probability that the U.S. national average gas price will exceed $4.00 per gallon by the end of July 2026, though probabilities for breaching $4.10 or $4.20 are lower [^][^][^][^].
Latest official data reports lower prices, despite broader inflation concerns. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the U.S. average regular gasoline price at $3.855 per gallon for the week ending July 13, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The EIA's weekly figure for July 20, 2026, had not been released as of the latest available update, with the next scheduled release on July 21, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This contrasts with the EIA's July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which projected Q3 2026 gasoline prices to average just under $3.80 per gallon; the EIA noted expected price decreases from lower crude costs would be partially offset by elevated wholesale and retail margins [^][^]. In June 2026, the gasoline index decreased by 9.7 percent monthly [^][^]. While New York Fed President John C. Williams noted overall inflation is approximately 4 percent, consumer expectations for gas price growth in June 2026 reached their lowest point since August 2022 [^][^]. Federal Reserve projections anticipate overall inflation to decline to about 3.25 percent by the end of 2026 [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market saw a dramatic repricing event. The contract traded in a narrow range around its starting price of 43.0% before a 56.0 percentage point spike on July 13 pushed the probability to 99.0%. Since that date, the price has held firm at that level, indicating a strong consensus has formed around the outcome. The total traded volume is 3,287 contracts, but recent trading has been nonexistent, with zero volume recorded on July 16 and July 18. This suggests high conviction among YES shareholders and a lack of sellers at the current price.
The catalyst for the price surge was a sharp increase in the U.S. national average gas price, which was reported to be between $3.94 and $3.98 per gallon as of July 18. News from sources including AAA and GasBuddy cited geopolitical instability as the driver, with predictions that prices could exceed $4.00. This spot price is well above the market's resolution threshold of $3.760, which explains the market's abrupt move to price in a near-certainty for the YES outcome.
The chart indicates a clear shift in market sentiment from uncertainty to conviction. The 43.0% level acted as a floor before the news broke. The current 99.0% price now functions as a ceiling, representing the maximum practical probability. The absence of trading volume following the spike implies that the market has fully priced in the available public information and expects the national average to remain above the strike price through the resolution date of July 20.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 4.010
📉 July 18, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 38.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 21.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price appears to be the Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement on July 14, 2026, that the gasoline index decreased 9.7 percent in June 2026 [^]. This official data, released four days prior to the market movement, likely tempered expectations for U.S. gas prices to decisively exceed $4.010 for the week, despite reports of recent upward trends [^][^][^][^]. As the national average gas price stood at $3.94 per gallon on July 16, just below the $4.010 threshold [^][^][^][^][^][^][^], this earlier data provided a significant counterpoint to bullish predictions. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no specific posts or viral narratives supporting such a market drop were identified in the research.
Outcome: Above 4.070
📉 July 17, 2026: 70.0pp drop
Price decreased from 73.0% to 3.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 70.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on July 17, 2026, was the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2026. On July 15, 2026, the BLS announced that gasoline prices declined 12.0 percent in June, significantly contributing to the overall decline of the index for final demand goods [^]. This report, released two days prior to the market movement, indicated substantial recent downward pressure on gas prices, likely diminishing market confidence in the outcome "Above 4.070." No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives appeared to directly cause or coincide with this precise market movement. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to this particular price movement.
Outcome: Above 4.060
📉 July 16, 2026: 25.0pp drop
Price decreased from 30.0% to 5.0%
What happened: The 25.0 percentage point drop in the "US gas prices this week Above 4.060" prediction market on July 16, 2026, was primarily driven by actual US national average gas prices consistently remaining below this threshold. On July 16, the AAA national average for regular gasoline was $3.94 per gallon, and the U.S. regular all formulations gasoline price was $3.855 per gallon [^][^][^][^]. This market movement coincides with the observed prices falling short of the $4.060 mark, reflecting a broader trend of declining gasoline prices in June 2026 [^][^]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as a driver for this prediction market movement. Social media was irrelevant.
Outcome: Above 4.000
📈 July 15, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 50.0% to 71.0%
What happened: The provided research does not support a 21.0 percentage point spike in "US gas prices this week" for the outcome "Above $4.000" on July 15, 2026 [^][^]. While U.S. national average gas prices did rise towards $4.00 in mid-July 2026 due to geopolitical instability and tight supplies, increasing by about 10 cents week-over-week to $3.94 per gallon by July 15, this is significantly less than the asserted spike and remained below the $4.00 threshold [^][^][^]. There is no evidence in the available data identifying a specific social media post, traditional news event, or market structure factor that caused a 21.0 percentage point movement [^][^]. Given the absence of evidence for such a spike, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.
Outcome: Above 3.980
📈 July 14, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 68.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market spike was the collapse of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which renewed military tensions and increased global crude oil volatility, causing U.S. gasoline prices to rise [^][^][^]. This geopolitical event led market analysts, in the week of July 14, 2026, to forecast national average gasoline prices returning to or exceeding $4.00 per gallon [^][^][^]. Further supporting the "Above 3.980" outcome, the U.S. All Grades All Formulations Gas Price was reported at $3.987 per gallon for the week ending July 13, 2026, with the data updated on July 14, 2026 [^]. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no relevant posts or narratives were identified as contributing to this movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the average regular gas price for the United States is strictly greater than $4.010 on July 20, 2026, according to AAA; otherwise, it resolves NO. The market opens on July 17, 2026, closes on July 19, 2026, and has a projected payout on July 20, 2026. Insider trading is prohibited, particularly for employees of source agencies or individuals with material, non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.760 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.780 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.800 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.820 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.840 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.860 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.880 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.900 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.920 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.940 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.960 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.980 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 3.990 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 4.000 | $0.90 | $0.16 | 86% |
| Above 4.010 | $0.38 | $0.63 | 38% |
| Above 4.020 | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Above 4.040 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Above 4.050 | $0.05 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Above 4.030 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Above 4.070 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Above 4.060 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above 4.080 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 4.100 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders are divided on whether US gas prices will exceed various thresholds this week. While there is an 88% market consensus for prices remaining above $4.000, certainty drops significantly for higher thresholds such as $4.010 (38%) and $4.020 (14%). Proponents of higher prices point to recent wholesale price increases and AAA trends, with some expressing skepticism about the market's seemingly contradictory odds for higher prices.
5. How do the July 2026 gasoline price forecasts from GasBuddy and the EIA differ in their assumptions about crude oil costs and refinery margins?
| EIA 3Q26 Gasoline Price Outlook | Decline compared to 2Q26 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| GasBuddy July 2026 Gasoline Price Forecast | National average to reach $4.00 per gallon [^][^][^][^] |
| GasBuddy $4.00/Gallon Timeline | Within 7-10 days after July 14, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
EIA and GasBuddy offer contrasting July 2026 gasoline price forecasts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and GasBuddy present significantly different gasoline price forecasts for July 2026, primarily due to contrasting assumptions regarding crude oil costs and refinery margins. While the EIA projects lower crude oil prices, GasBuddy anticipates elevated prices driven by geopolitical events impacting crude supply.
The EIA anticipates lower Q3 2026 gasoline prices, driven by reduced crude costs. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook for July 2026 predicted a decline in U.S. retail gasoline prices for the third quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter [^][^]. This forecast attributes the decrease to lower crude oil prices, though it expects a partial offset from elevated refinery margins caused by low gasoline inventories [^][^]. The EIA also assumes that crack spreads will narrow as inventories rebuild later in the year [^][^][^][^].
GasBuddy projects significantly higher July 2026 prices due to geopolitical tensions. Analyst Patrick De Haan has issued a bullish forecast, expecting the national average for gasoline to reach $4.00 per gallon (and potentially higher) within 7-10 days following July 14, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This prediction is largely based on the geopolitical impact of the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on crude oil prices [^][^][^][^]. GasBuddy highlights current supply shocks and active geopolitical escalations, such as the Hormuz blockade and the Ukraine conflict, as key drivers creating immediate upward pressure on retail fuel prices [^][^][^][^].
6. What specific geopolitical developments between the U.S. and Iran before July 20, 2026, could cause a sharp spike or reversal in gasoline prices?
| Current Price Pressure | Gasoline prices experiencing upward pressure as of July 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Cause of Spike | Total collapse of U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and escalation in military hostilities regarding the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Reversal Trigger | Progress on a U.S.-Iran peace deal, allowing increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to a price reversal or drop [^] |
Geopolitical developments between the U.S. and Iran significantly impact gasoline prices, driving upward pressure. The collapse of a ceasefire agreement and escalating military hostilities, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, are key developments that could cause a sharp spike in gasoline prices before July 20, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. As of July 18, 2026, gasoline prices are experiencing upward pressure due to this dramatic escalation, which focuses on the Strait of Hormuz and critical infrastructure [^][^][^][^][^]. Specific triggers for price spikes include renewed fighting or escalation in the Iran conflict, any move to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. threats or actions that raise the risk premium on Gulf oil shipping [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Escalations directly obstruct major oil transit corridors, raising prices and market volatility. These actions include the official closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, and emerging threats from Iran to direct its Houthi allies to close the Red Sea route [^][^][^][^][^]. Such moves could potentially obstruct two major global oil transit corridors simultaneously. These actions, coupled with broader Middle East uncertainty that threatens shipping lanes, raise crude prices and refining margins, creating significant market volatility and a "geopolitical premium" on oil benchmarks [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
De-escalation of tensions could lead to a sharp reversal in prices. A sharp reversal or drop in gasoline prices could be caused by developments that alleviate these geopolitical tensions. For instance, flows through the Strait of Hormuz previously ramped up following progress on a U.S.-Iran peace deal, which saw the global benchmark drop below 7248 a barrel [^]. While a ceasefire breakdown or an "on again, off again" conflict reverses any easing in oil prices, a sustained ceasefire or peace agreement could lead to such an easing and downward repricing of gasoline [^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. Which upcoming data releases from the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report are most critical for traders to watch before the July 20 resolution date?
| Prediction Market Resolution | July 20, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| National Average Gasoline Price | $3.98 per gallon as of July 16, 2026 [^] |
| Gasoline Inventories (July 15 report) | Down 1.7 million barrels week-over-week [^] |
No critical EIA reports are scheduled before the July 20 resolution. The "US gas prices this week" prediction market is set to resolve on July 20, 2026 [^]. As of July 18, 2026, there are no upcoming U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Reports (WPSR) scheduled for release prior to this resolution date [^][^]. The EIA typically issues its WPSR every Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET [^][^]. The most recent report was released on Wednesday, July 15, 2026 [^], making it the last relevant data point before the market closes. The next scheduled report is for July 22, 2026, which falls after the July 20, 2026 prediction market resolution [^][^].
The most recent EIA data revealed tightening gasoline and crude balances. The July 15, 2026 WPSR, which covered data for the week ending July 10, indicated several key metrics. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels week-over-week, positioning them approximately 3.00% below the five-year average [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Refinery utilization stood at 96.4% of operable capacity [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Crude inventories also saw a decrease, falling by 3.9 million barrels to a total of 422.2 million barrels, which is about 9.00% below the five-year average [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The national average price for regular gasoline, which determines the market resolution, was $3.98 per gallon as of July 16, 2026 [^][^]. The WPSR scheduled for July 22, 2026, will cover data for the week ending July 17, and it will be used by traders to assess if the recent tightening in gasoline and crude balances is continuing [^].
8. What signals in crude oil futures markets (WTI/Brent) or consumer spending data would validate the EIA's more bearish Q3 2026 forecast over current market sentiment?
| WTI Futures Threshold | Below $65.78/bbl [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Brent Futures Threshold | Below $69.00/bbl [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| EIA Q3 Gasoline Price Average | $3.80/gal [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Crude oil futures falling below EIA forecasts would confirm bearish outlook. Validation of the EIA's more bearish Q3 2026 forecast requires a sustained drop in WTI and Brent futures prices below the EIA's Q3 averages, coupled with consumer spending data showing a weakening in gasoline demand [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Specifically, WTI futures would need to trade consistently below $65.78/bbl and Brent futures below $69.00/bbl, signaling that crude markets are pricing a weaker supply-demand balance than current sentiment [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Weakening gasoline demand and lower retail prices would support the bearish view. The EIA's bearish outlook for Q3 2026 is based on the assumption of a gradual resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which would increase global oil supply and inventory accumulation [^][^][^]. Therefore, market signals validating this view would also include retail sales or consumer spending data indicating gasoline-related weakness, rather than the surprising resilience seen in US gasoline consumption despite high pump prices [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. If gasoline retail prices fail to hold near the EIA's Q3 average of $3.80/gal, especially when demand also weakens, this would further suggest the market is not absorbing supply at the pace implied by current sentiment [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While current market sentiment reflects concerns about constrained immediate supply and geopolitical risk, the bearish EIA case would need evidence that consumer resilience, which has been supporting risk assets, is fading rather than persisting [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. Beyond geopolitics, what domestic factors like refinery outages or hurricane risks in the Gulf of Mexico could drive price volatility before July 20, 2026?
| U.S. Refinery Utilization | 96.2% (week ending July 10, 2026) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Historical Gasoline Price Spikes | 25 to 30 cents per gallon (due to Gulf Coast refinery outages or hurricane disruptions) [^][^] |
| 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (NOAA) | 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, 1–3 major hurricanes [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Refinery disruptions and high utilization pose risks to U.S. gas prices. Domestic factors contributing to potential U.S. gas price volatility before July 20, 2026, include disruptions at refineries, which are exacerbated by high utilization rates. Reported outages at Marathon Petroleum's Detroit refinery and Delta’s Trainer, Pennsylvania refinery have already tightened U.S. fuel supplies. The U.S. Gulf Coast, accounting for nearly half of the nation's total refining capacity, has historically experienced gasoline price spikes of 25 to 30 cents per gallon following refinery outages or hurricane-related disruptions [^][^]. For the week ending July 10, 2026, U.S. refinery utilization stood at 96.2%, with Gulf Coast utilization even higher at 96.8% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This elevated utilization suggests limited spare capacity, which could amplify the impact of any unexpected outage or storm [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Catastrophic Texas flooding currently impacts energy facilities and logistics. As of July 17, 2026, severe flooding in Texas has led to preemptive shutdowns of critical energy infrastructure and logistical hubs along the Gulf Coast, including the Port of Houston [^]. Despite this, immediate hurricane risks to Gulf Coast energy infrastructure appear minimized before July 20, 2026, as there are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico as of July 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. While a low-pressure area is forecast to form in the northeastern Gulf of America this weekend, the National Hurricane Center reports a low chance of its development over the next seven days [^].
Seasonal hurricane outlook suggests continued risk for Gulf fuel supply. The NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, issued May 21, 2026, still implies seasonal risk for Gulf fuel supply, forecasting 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Historically, domestic price volatility is often driven by infrastructure challenges during severe weather events, encompassing power outages at retail stations, potential refinery impacts, and broader supply chain disruptions [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of July 18, 2026, the US national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.99, nearing the $4.00 per gallon threshold [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . The latest available AAA national average regular gasoline price was $3.992/gal on July 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This rise stems primarily from geopolitical instability near the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed crude oil prices toward $80 per barrel, combined with tight refining capacity during the peak summer driving season [^][^][^]. WTI crude oil rose 15.5% for the week to $82.47/bbl, providing a supportive input for gasoline prices [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Economic indicators from July 2026 highlight energy price volatility as a significant contributor to elevated inflation, though it has had minimal impact on overall economic activity thus far [^][^][^].
Key catalysts for gasoline include changes in weekly EIA inventory reports, hurricane activity in the Gulf Coast region between June and October, refinery margins, and geopolitical events [^] [^] . US natural gas markets remain range-bound in the low $3.00 per million BTU range [^][^][^]. Strong power-sector demand from summer heat waves is consistently offset by record-high domestic production and comfortable storage levels [^][^][^]. Market catalysts for the remainder of 2026 include the ongoing Middle East conflict, European LNG supply tightness, and anticipated 2027 demand growth driven by data center infrastructure and expanded LNG export capacity [^][^]. Counteracting some upward pressure, gas prices had retreated in June, weighing on retail sales growth [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The BLS reported a 9.7% monthly decrease in the gasoline index for June 2026, with consumer expectations for gas price growth reaching their lowest level since August 2022 in June 2026 [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: July 20, 2026
- Expiration: July 27, 2026
- Closes: July 20, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: As of July 18, 2026, the US national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.99, nearing the $4.00 per gallon threshold [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The latest available AAA national average regular gasoline price was $3.992/gal on July 18, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This rise stems primarily from geopolitical instability near the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed crude oil prices toward $80 per barrel, combined with tight refining capacity during the peak summer driving season [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: WTI crude oil rose 15.5% for the week to $82.47/bbl, providing a supportive input for gasoline prices [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASW-26JUL13-4.000: NO (Jul 13, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26JUL13-3.980: NO (Jul 13, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26JUL13-3.960: NO (Jul 13, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26JUL13-3.940: NO (Jul 13, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26JUL13-3.920: NO (Jul 13, 2026)
