Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect US housing starts for March 2026 to be above 1.325M, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market for US housing starts for March 2026 exhibits an overall upward trend, with the probability rising from a starting point of 63.0% to a current price of 82.0%. This general uptrend, however, has been characterized by significant volatility, especially during late April 2026. Within a two-week span, the market saw several substantial price swings. Notably, the price dropped sharply by 18.0 percentage points on April 19, only to rebound by 13.0 points the next day. A further spike of 15.0 percentage points occurred on April 28, pushing the probability from 75.0% to 90.0%. These rapid movements suggest periods of uncertainty and rapid reassessment of information by traders.
The specific catalysts for these significant price spikes and drops are not identifiable from the provided context. While the total volume of 5,500 contracts indicates consistent participation over the market's duration, the available data does not allow for a direct correlation between trading volume and the sharp price movements. From a technical standpoint, several key price levels have emerged. The 57.0% mark acted as a clear support level following the drop on April 19, while the 75.0% level has been a significant pivot point, acting as both resistance and support. The recent high of 90.0% now stands as a potential resistance level. Ultimately, the market's ability to recover from dips and establish a higher trading range above 80.0% points to a strong and persistent bullish sentiment, reflecting a high degree of confidence in the "YES" outcome.
  • Lending standards for commercial real estate loans notably eased in January 2026.
  • Softwood lumber prices experienced a decline in December 2025.
  • Homebuilders project increased new orders for Q1 2026.
  • Homebuilders anticipate growing community counts in Q1 2026.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 1.400M

📈 April 29, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 5.0% to 16.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Above 1.350M

📈 April 28, 2026: 19.0pp spike

Price increased from 44.0% to 63.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📈 April 25, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 38.0% to 46.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Above 1.375M

📈 April 23, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 11.0% to 19.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Above 1.325M

📈 April 20, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 70.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the seasonally adjusted annual rate of US housing starts for March 2026 is above 1.350M units, and to No if it is 1.350M units or less. The outcome is verified by the "Housing Starts" figure from the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for March 2026, as displayed on Trading Economics. If the release is delayed, the market will resolve based on the first official publication of this value, closing early upon data release or by May 5, 2026, at 9:55 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. What are Q1 2026 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Forecasts?

Fannie Mae 30-yr Mortgage Rate Q1 20266.3% [1]
MBA 30-yr Mortgage Rate Q1 20266.3% [2]
March 2026 FOMC Implied Fed Funds RateData not available [3]
Major economic surveys generally forecast 6.3% for Q1 2026 mortgage rates. Several prominent economic surveys anticipate the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.3% during the first quarter of 2026. Fannie Mae's housing and economic forecasts for January and March 2026 both project this rate [1]. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) also aligns with this outlook, predicting an average 30-year fixed rate of 6.3% for Q1 2026 [2]. Furthermore, Wells Fargo's U.S. Economic Outlook, published in January 2026, corroborates these predictions [4].
Information is unavailable for March 2026 Federal Funds Rate. Regarding the implied Federal Funds Rate for the March 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the available research does not provide this specific information. The provided sources discussing the CME FedWatch Tool primarily reference probabilities and rate expectations for near-term FOMC meetings, such as April or March of the current year, rather than specifically for March 2026 [3]. Consequently, a direct comparison or alignment between the forecasted 30-year fixed mortgage rates for Q1 2026 and the implied Federal Funds Rate for the March 2026 FOMC meeting cannot be established from the provided data.
Sources (4)
  1. 1https://www.fanniemae.com/media/document/pdf/housing-forecast-012026fanniemae.com
  2. 2Mortgage Rate Predictions 2026: Fannie Mae & MBA Forecaststheadvantagelending.com
  3. 3CME FedWatch Signals Steady April Rates Amid Inflation | E8 Markets Blogblog.e8markets.com
  4. 4Wells Fargo - U.S. Economic Outlook: January 2026wellsfargo.bluematrix.com

6. What are homebuilders' Q1 2026 new order and community count projections?

Lennar Q1 2026 New Orders16,000 to 16,500 units (Lennar Q4 2025 earnings [1])
PulteGroup Q1 2026 Home Closings6,000 to 6,400 units (PulteGroup Q4 2025 earnings [2])
PulteGroup FY 2026 Community Count Growth5% to 10% increase (PulteGroup Q4 2025 earnings [2])
Based on their Q4 2025 earnings calls and reports, U.S. public homebuilders provided varied guidance for Q1 2026 new orders. Lennar Corporation was the sole top-five builder to offer specific Q1 2026 new order projections, forecasting between 16,000 and 16,500 new orders for the quarter [1]. Other major homebuilders, including D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, and Toll Brothers, did not provide explicit Q1 2026 new order guidance. Instead, D.R. Horton projected 92,000-95,000 homes closed for the full fiscal year 2026 [3], PulteGroup anticipated Q1 2026 home sale closings between 6,000 and 6,400 units [2], and Toll Brothers expected Q1 2026 deliveries of 1,900 to 2,000 homes [4]. NVR's Q4 2025 reporting did not include specific forward-looking guidance for new orders in Q1 2026 [5].
No homebuilders provided precise Q1 2026 community count growth percentages. However, several builders offered outlooks for the broader fiscal year 2026. PulteGroup anticipates its full fiscal year 2026 community count to increase by 5% to 10% from its Q4 2025 ending count of 1,325 communities [2]. Lennar expects its active communities at the end of fiscal year 2026 to range between 1,200 and 1,250, an increase from 1,179 communities active in Q4 2025 [1]. Toll Brothers projects an average of 380 to 390 communities for fiscal year 2026, up from 370 active selling communities in Q4 2025 [4]. D.R. Horton generally expressed a focus on continuing to grow community count [3], while NVR did not provide specific community count guidance for either Q1 2026 or the full fiscal year 2026 [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Lennar Corporation - Lennar Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 Resultsinvestors.lennar.com
  2. 2PulteGroup (PHM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3https://investor.drhorton.com/~/media/Files/D/D-R-Horton-IR/reports-and-presentations/presentations/q4-2025-investor-presentation.pdfinvestor.drhorton.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers Reports FY 2025 Fourth Quarter Results | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  5. 5Documentsec.gov

7. What Were Q4 2025 Softwood Lumber and Concrete Price Trends?

Softwood Lumber Price (Dec 2025)Experienced a dip [1]
Overall PPI Change (Dec 2025)Rose by 0.5% [1]
Ready-Mix Concrete Data (Q4 2025)No specific month-over-month trend data available [2]
Softwood lumber's PPI declined in December 2025, diverging from overall trends. In December 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for softwood lumber experienced a dip, despite an overall increase of 0.5% in the broader PPI for the month [1]. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released these findings for December 2025 on January 30, 2026 [3]. However, the available research does not provide detailed month-over-month percentage changes for softwood lumber in October and November 2025 [4].
Ready-mix concrete lacked specific month-over-month trend data for Q4 2025. Specific month-over-month trend information for ready-mix concrete during Q4 2025 is not available in the provided sources [2]. While detailed trends for this period are unavailable, the BLS does track PPI data for the Ready-Mix Concrete Manufacturing industry [2].
Year-over-year comparisons for Q4 2024 are not possible with current data. The research does not contain any month-over-month trends or specific data points for either softwood lumber or ready-mix concrete for Q4 2024 [1-10]. Consequently, direct year-over-year comparisons with Q4 2025 cannot be made based on the information provided.
Sources (4)
  1. 1PPI Climbs in December 2025, Lumber Prices Fall Amid Tariff Costs - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io
  2. 2Producer Price Index by Industry: Ready-Mix Concrete Manufacturing: Primary Products (PCU327320327320P) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  3. 3Producer Price Index News Release - 2025 M12 Resultsbls.gov
  4. 4Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Lumber (WPS0811) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org

8. Are Lending Standards Easing for Multifamily and Construction Loans?

Net easing for construction and land development loans10.3% (January 2026 SLOOS) [1]
Net easing for multifamily residential property loans7.3% (January 2026 SLOOS) [1]
Previous quarter net tightening for construction/land development13.9% (SLOOS prior quarter) [1]
The Federal Reserve's January 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) indicates a notable easing of lending standards for commercial real estate. While a specific combined category for "construction and land development loans for multifamily properties" is not distinctly reported, the survey provides data for closely related segments. Specifically, a net 10.3% of domestic banks reported easing standards for construction and land development loans, and a net 7.3% of banks reported easing standards for loans secured by multifamily residential properties [1].
These figures represent a significant shift from prior periods, indicating a trend away from tightening. The previous quarter, for instance, saw a net 13.9% of banks tightening standards for general construction and land development loans [1]. The current results suggest an overall movement toward looser credit conditions within these commercial real estate market segments, including both the development and acquisition of multifamily properties [1]. This shift signals a change in banks' willingness to lend in these areas compared to earlier periods [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Multifamily Lending Sees First Loosening in Years, Construction Demand Strengthensglobest.com

9. When Will February 2026 Housing Permit Data Be Released?

December 2025 Housing PermitsNot yet reported by U.S. Census Bureau [1]
January 2026 Housing PermitsNot yet reported by U.S. Census Bureau [1]
February 2026 Housing PermitsNot yet reported by U.S. Census Bureau [1]
Official U.S. Census Bureau housing permit data is not yet available. The seasonally adjusted total housing permits data for December 2025, January 2026, and February 2026 has not been released by the U.S. Census Bureau. These figures are crucial leading indicators for housing starts.
Data release follows a standard approximate one-month lag. The U.S. Census Bureau typically reports this data with about a one-month delay after the reference period [1]. For example, the data for February 2026 would generally become accessible in March 2026. Consequently, the official statistics for these recent months are not currently accessible.
Monitor Census Bureau releases for forthcoming housing data. Interested parties should consult the Census Bureau's New Residential Construction Press Releases and release schedules for updates on when these official figures will become available [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1New Residential Construction Press Releasecensus.gov