Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the price of a dozen eggs to be above $2.78 on May 4, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Increased supply post-HPAI recovery drives lower egg prices.
  • Wholesale egg costs are currently at extremely low levels.
  • Shell egg inventory rose significantly week-over-week in late April.
  • Egg prices show a significant downturn since early 2025.
  • February 2026 egg prices notably decreased from January 2026.

Current Context

Recent data indicates a significant decline in average egg prices. The U.S. City Average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs, as reported by the BLS, was $2.348 in March 2026, which is a decrease from $2.500 in February and $2.577 in January [1]. This downward trend for 2026 year-to-date contrasts with the 2025 annual average price of $4.71 per dozen, with current prices sharply lower due to recovery from avian flu [2].
Future forecasts predict further reductions in egg prices. The USDA anticipates that egg prices will fall to $2.16 per dozen in 2026, attributing this to a supply surplus that has emerged following the recovery from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) [3]. Prediction markets reflect a similar sentiment, with Polymarket showing 61% odds that April 2026 prices will fall between $2.25 and $2.50, and 31% odds for prices between $2.00 and $2.25, based on over $24,000 in trading volume [4].
Current wholesale prices are very low, with more data pending. As of May 1, 2026, wholesale prices for white extra large eggs were approximately 20 cents per dozen FOB, prior to the application of retail markups [5]. The next data release concerning BLS CPI average prices for April 2026 is scheduled for May 12 [4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Average Price: Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average (APU0000708111) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  2. 2The Egg Index — 2015-2026 Price Tracker | The BLS average price of eggs per dozen in January 2026 was $2.58. | Keeping Up With Inflationkeepingupwithinflation.com
  3. 3USDA Sees Egg Prices Sliding to $2.16 by 2026 as Supply Surplus Overwhelms Demandainvest.com
  4. 4Odds On: Egg prices most likely to fall in $2.25-$2.50 range in Apriltipranks.com
  5. 5USDA Daily Shell Egg Price Report – May 1, 2026 | MyMarketNews - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index is above $2.78 per dozen eggs on May 4, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to No, with the outcome verified by Truflation. The market opens on May 3, 2026, and will close by May 4, 2026, at 7:59 pm EDT, though it may close earlier if the economic data is released. Payout is projected 30 minutes after closing.

Market Discussion

Recent data indicates retail egg prices in early 2026 have ranged from $2.35-$2.58 per dozen, while wholesale prices are significantly lower at $0.21-$0.22 and projected to continue decreasing [1]. This downward trend, including a 60% drop over the past month and 93% year-over-year, is largely due to flock recovery following avian flu outbreaks [2]. Prediction markets currently suggest expectations for prices to remain below $2.78, with a 62% probability of prices settling between $2.25-$2.50 in April [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1BLS Data Viewerdata.bls.gov
  2. 2Eggs US - Price - Chart - Historical Data - Newstradingeconomics.com
  3. 3Price of a dozen eggs tomorrow Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com

4. What is the Retail Egg Markup for Top Grocers in April 2026?

Retail Markup DataNot explicitly available for top 5 grocers in April 2026 [1]
Walmart Large White Eggs$1.67/dozen in April 2026 [2][3]
BLS Average Retail Large Eggs$2.348/dozen in March 2026 [4]
Specific retail markup data for top grocers is unavailable for April 2026. The precise cents-per-dozen retail markup over the Urner Barry Midwest Large benchmark for the top five grocery retailers (Walmart, Kroger, Costco, Albertsons, Ahold Delhaize) during the April 2026 BLS data collection period is not explicitly provided in the available research. Similarly, information regarding a 12-month rolling average markup for these retailers is also not contained within the provided facts [1].
Related egg pricing data offers some market context for April 2026. Walmart's Great Value Large White eggs were priced at $1.67/dozen in April 2026 [2][3]. The Urner Barry Retail Feature Egg Index reported high values of $3.5019/dozen on April 27, 2026, and $3.5592 on April 20 [5]. Additionally, national wholesale Large eggs were 22.35 cents/dozen as of April 17, 2026 [6]. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) average retail price for large eggs was $2.348/dozen for March 2026 [4], with April data expected to be released on May 12, 2026 [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Markets - Urner Barryurnerbarry.com
  2. 2Walmart Vs Aldi: Which Chain Has Cheaper Eggs?mashed.com
  3. 3Walmart Vs Aldi: The Grocery Store Chain With Cheaper Eggs In 2026yahoo.com
  4. 4Average Price: Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average (APU0000708111) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  5. 5Weekly Retail Feature Egg Index - Urner Barryprod.urnerbarry.com
  6. 6Egg Market Update April 2026: National Prices Rise, California Steady - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io
  7. 7Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M03 Resultsbls.gov

5. How Many Commercial Layer Hens Were Depopulated Due to HPAI in Early 2026?

Layers Died/Destroyed (March 2026)18.3 million (169% increase YoY) [1]
HPAI Affected Egg Layers (Q1 2026)17.6 million [2]
Indiana Hens Lost (Affected Counties)2.8 million (32% inventory loss since Oct 2025) [3]
The total number of commercial layer hens depopulated due to confirmed Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks between March 15, 2026, and April 30, 2026, is not specifically detailed in the available research. However, broader data indicates substantial losses, with 18.3 million layers dying or being destroyed in March 2026, marking a 169% year-over-year increase, largely attributed to HPAI [1]. Furthermore, 17.6 million egg layers were affected by HPAI during the first quarter of 2026 (January-March) [2]. A recent 30-day total as of early April 2026 showed 5 million birds affected across 62 flocks, with 39 of these being commercial operations [2]. Despite these outbreaks, the overall U.S. layer flock grew to an average of 375.9 million in March 2026, a 5% increase year-over-year [1]. This growth contributed to relatively low retail egg prices of $2.50 per dozen in February 2026 [2].
Indiana faced substantial HPAI-related losses, particularly in northern counties. The state was identified as particularly impacted, with major egg production facilities reporting 20 HPAI cases by mid-March 2026. These outbreaks primarily involved layers and ducks in Indiana's northern counties [3]. Approximately 2.8 million hens were housed in these affected northern counties, representing a 32% inventory loss for Indiana since October 2025 [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Ckeg0426esmis.nal.usda.gov
  2. 2Egg prices avoid past spikes with fewer HPAI cases | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.agri-pulse.com
  3. 3The HPAI Grim Reaper Returns for Ducks and Layers in Northern Indiana Cycle 2hogvet51.substack.com

6. How Did Shell Egg Inventory and Broken Eggs Change in April 2026?

Total Shell Egg Inventory Increase (Week-over-week)Nearly 6% (around April 27, 2026) [1]
Large Egg Inventory Increase (Week-over-week)8% (around April 27, 2026) [1]
Shell Eggs Broken (March 2026)201.72M dozen [2]
Shell egg inventory rose significantly in late April 2026 week-over-week. Around April 27, 2026, the total shell egg inventory showed a week-over-week increase of nearly 6% [1]. Specifically, the inventory of large eggs increased by 8% during that same weekly period [1]. However, a direct comparison of these week-over-week inventory trends to the same period in April 2025 is not possible due to the absence of comparable data for the prior year [1].
Week-over-week broken egg data for April 2026 is unavailable. While specific week-over-week percentage changes for shell eggs broken under federal inspection for April 2026 are not provided, monthly and cumulative figures offer insight [2]. In March 2026, 201.72 million dozen shell eggs were broken, which marked a 2% decrease from February 2026 but represented a 3% increase compared to March 2025 [2]. Cumulatively, from January through March 2026, 610.3 million dozen shell eggs were broken, indicating a 7% increase over the same period in 2025 [2]. For context, April 2025 recorded 193.21 million dozen broken eggs, showing a 1% change from the previous month [3]. Due to missing week-over-week data for both April 2026 and April 2025, a direct comparison of weekly trends for broken eggs is not feasible [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdfams.usda.gov
  2. 2Eggs0426esmis.nal.usda.gov
  3. 3https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/hx11xf25t/k930dv69p/nz807w948/eggs0525.pdfesmis.nal.usda.gov

7. How do California egg prices compare to national averages?

National Retail Egg Price (Early Apr 2026)~$2.50 per dozen [1]
National Wholesale Large Caged Loose (Late Apr 2026)22 cents per dozen [2]
California Cartoned Egg Benchmark (Late Apr 2026)87 cents per dozen [2]
Precise retail egg price data between California and the Midwest is unavailable. While specific retail scanner data for a dozen large Grade A eggs differentiating California (Prop 12 compliant) from the Midwest (e.g., Illinois, Ohio) is not available as of late April 2026, reports indicate the price differential between California and national prices is narrowing due to a decline in national prices [3]. California continues to experience the highest egg prices, largely attributed to its Prop 12 cage-free mandate, which limits imports and results in a tighter supply within the state [4].
National retail and wholesale egg prices showed significant variation in late April. By early April 2026, national retail egg prices had fallen to approximately $2.50 per dozen, a decrease from 2025 peaks [1]. USDA data from late April 2026 reported national wholesale large caged loose eggs at 22 cents per dozen, while California's cartoned benchmark was 87 cents per dozen and CA-compliant loose eggs were 31 cents per dozen [2]. During the same period, national retail ad averages for conventional caged large eggs were recorded at $1.65 per dozen, with cage-free eggs averaging $2.48 per dozen [2].
First quarter 2026 saw fluctuating national egg prices and high California costs. Throughout the first quarter of 2026, average US egg prices were $2.58 per dozen in January and $3.59 per dozen in February [5][3]. California consistently ranked among the top five priciest states for eggs during this period [5][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Egg Prices Have Plummeted: What You Need to Know in April 2026priceofmeat.com
  2. 2https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdfams.usda.gov
  3. 3The Egg Index: Why Prices Spiked, Where They Are Now, and What's Next | Keeping Up With Inflationkeepingupwithinflation.com
  4. 4Eggs for Easter more affordable than last year – Illinois Business Journalibjonline.com
  5. 5Average Cost of a Dozen Eggs by State | SoFisofi.com

8. What is the US Retail Price for Grade A Large Eggs?

National Wholesale Loose White Large Eggsapproximately 22 cents/dozen (FOB dock) [1][2]
National Average Grocery Store Ad Price (Conventional Caged Large White Eggs)$1.65/dozen [3]
USDA Forecast Egg Price by Late 2026$2.16/dozen [4]
Specific Grade A Large egg price and historical spread are unavailable. The 'U.S. HIGHLIGHTS: RETAIL' price for Grade A Large eggs for the week ending April 29, 2026, released on May 2, is not explicitly available in the provided research [5][1][6][3][7]. Furthermore, the historical spread between this specific weekly report and the final BLS monthly average price over the last 24 months cannot be determined from the given sources.
Related USDA reports offer approximate wholesale and retail egg prices. Other data from early May 2026 USDA reports indicate that national wholesale loose white Large eggs were approximately 22 cents/dozen (FOB dock) [1][2]. A recent weekly report also showed that the national average grocery store ad price for conventional caged Large white eggs was $1.65/dozen [3].
USDA forecasts egg prices will reach $2.16 later in 2026. The USDA anticipates that egg prices are expected to reach $2.16/dozen by later in 2026. This projection is due to an anticipated supply surplus [4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2843.pdfams.usda.gov
  2. 2USDA Daily Shell Egg Price Report – May 1, 2026 | MyMarketNews - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io
  3. 3https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdfams.usda.gov
  4. 4USDA Sees Egg Prices Sliding to $2.16 by 2026 as Supply Surplus Overwhelms Demandainvest.com
  5. 5[PDF] Egg Products 04/29/2026 - USDA NASSnass.usda.gov
  6. 6https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2757.pdfams.usda.gov
  7. 7https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pywretailegg.pdfams.usda.gov

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Egg prices are currently experiencing a significant downturn, with the BLS reporting an average of $2.50 per dozen in February 2026, a notable decrease from $2.577 in January 2026 and a peak of $6.227 in March 2025 [1][2]. The annual average for January 2026 stood at $2.58 per dozen, marking a 45% year-over-year decline from 2025's $4.71 [3]. This bearish trend is largely attributed to an oversupply in the market, with the layer flock reaching 308 million hens in early 2026 and production increasing 2% year-over-year in January [4][5]. The USDA forecasts a further slide to $2.16 per dozen by late 2026, driven by a supply surplus overwhelming demand, compounded by a post-holiday demand lull and a shift towards processed eggs [6][4]. Wholesale egg prices reflect this, with May 1 prices at $0.22 per dozen, a 93% year-over-year decrease [7]. Market probabilities, such as those from Polymarket in April, indicate a 61% chance of prices falling within the $2.25-$2.50 range [8].
The primary bullish risk that could reverse the current downward trajectory of egg prices is the emergence of new Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks [5]. Recent localized outbreaks, for instance, in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, highlight the ongoing threat of the virus to the layer flock [5]. A widespread resurgence of HPAI could significantly reduce egg supply, leading to price volatility and a potential increase in costs, despite the current oversupply conditions [5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 12, 2026
  • Closes: May 04, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1BLS Data Viewerdata.bls.gov
  2. 2Average Price: Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average (APU0000708111) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  3. 3The Egg Index — 2015-2026 Price Tracker | The BLS average price of eggs per dozen in January 2026 was $2.58. | Keeping Up With Inflationkeepingupwithinflation.com
  4. 4US Egg Prices Retreat From 3-Month Highstradingeconomics.com
  5. 5Egg Prices Have Plummeted: What You Need to Know in April 2026priceofmeat.com
  6. 6USDA Sees Egg Prices Sliding to $2.16 by 2026 as Supply Surplus Overwhelms Demandainvest.com
  7. 7Eggs US - Price - Chart - Historical Data - Newstradingeconomics.com
  8. 8Odds On: Egg prices most likely to fall in $2.25-$2.50 range in Apriltipranks.com

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.87: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.86: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.85: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.84: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.83: YES (May 01, 2026)