US refinery utilization in November

Planned maintenance for November 2026 suggests high but easing utilization. U.S. refinery utilization was recorded at 93.5% in the week ending October 9 ^[1]. A significant volume of maintenance had been previously deferred into late 2026, creating a turnaround backlog concentrated between September and November ^[1][6]. While the beginning of 2026 saw lighter scheduled maintenance and reduced operating capacity contributing to high utilization, these deferred inspections and fall turnarounds introduce a downside risk for November ^[7][5].

Several key refinery maintenance events will impact November's national utilization. Notable November-overlapping maintenance events that are expected to reduce national utilization include Exxon's Baytown coker, operating through November 10; PBF Chalmette's CDU/coker, expected through November 24; and CITGO Lake Charles' CDU, scheduled through November 30 ^[5]. Despite these specific outages, prediction-market pricing indicates that the market anticipates November utilization to remain high, with current snapshots showing a median near 94.75% ^[2][3][4]. It is important to note that the settlement measure for this market uses EIA's monthly U.S. Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity series for November 2026, rather than weekly utilization ^[2].

Late-2026 crack spreads incentivize high refinery runs due to tight inventories. Late-2026 3:2:1 crack spreads, particularly on the Gulf Coast, are significantly above ordinary levels, indicating unusually tight inventories and providing a strong economic incentive for refineries to maintain high throughput through November ^[1][2][3]. Strong diesel margins are the primary driver, supporting overall crude processing despite some reduction from September's peak levels ^[1][3].

Robust crack spreads reflect historically low distillate inventories and high utilization. The Gulf Coast 3:2:1 crack spread averaged $65.68/bbl in Q4 through October 14, following a record-high September monthly average of $75.59/bbl ^[1]. As of October 24, 2026, RBN's benchmark 3:2:1 crack spread was $56.43/bbl ^[2]. U.S. distillate stocks stood at 102.6 million barrels, which is 12.2% below the 2021–2025 average and represents the lowest seasonal level in EIA history, with Gulf Coast diesel cracks near record highs ^[3][4]. This scarcity, coupled with Gulf Coast utilization at 96.3% and Midwest utilization at 89.7% for the week ending October 9, supports continued high refinery runs ^[1].

Favorable economics from diesel production sustain high utilization despite other factors. Even with less extreme gasoline margins, the economics favor refinery operation due to the joint production of a barrel containing roughly 30% distillate, meaning strong diesel margins bolster total crude throughput and generate gasoline as a byproduct ^[3]. Although October Gulf Coast cracks eased from September's peak and analysts warned of potential compression from factors like a Hormuz reopening, current scarcity supports high runs through November ^[1][5][6]. The late-2026 crack spreads indicate a bullish outlook for utilization to remain above 88% and potentially in the low-to-mid-90s, given that margins persist far above typical levels and inventories remain unusually tight ^[1][2].

Kpler predicts robust North American crude runs in late 2026. The firm projects US crude runs to average approximately 16.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from September through December 2026, which is about 450 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) above year-ago levels and 500–600 kb/d above seasonal averages ^[1]. Kpler attributes this bullish outlook to historically light autumn maintenance, unusually strong refining margins, and robust export demand, particularly given constraints on Russian and Middle Eastern product supply ^[1]. This scenario suggests US refinery utilization could remain above the prediction market’s 88% and plausibly reach 90% thresholds ^[1][3].

In contrast, the IEA's October 2026 report presents a more cautious global recovery outlook. It expects global refinery runs to bottom seasonally at 81.3 mb/d in October before recovering to 84.6 mb/d by year-end ^[2]. This recovery is anticipated to be constrained by factors such as high crude and freight costs, ongoing maintenance, disrupted Middle Eastern and Russian supply, and weaker demand ^[2]. While the IEA's accessible report highlights do not specify a November crude-run number for North America, its qualitative framework suggests US refiners could be a relative bright spot due to discounted feedstocks supporting high margins, though a late-season Gulf Coast hurricane is noted as an explicit downside risk ^[2].

The forecasts diverge significantly due to differing methodologies and analytical focus. Kpler emphasizes asset-level availability, light US maintenance, and export economics, leading to its high November US run and utilization scenario ^[1]. The IEA, conversely, employs a global balancing framework that centers on demand destruction, supply disruptions, margins, inventories, and seasonal maintenance. This approach results in a more cautious Q4 global recovery outlook rather than a specific bullish US November forecast ^[2].

Historical revision statistics for refinery utilization cannot be precisely computed. A precise historical revision statistic cannot be determined for the typical revision between the EIA's weekly refinery utilization estimates for November and the final monthly figure used for settlement ^[2][3][4]. This inability stems from the provided sources lacking archived vintages of initial monthly estimates necessary for such a comparison. It is crucial to note that weekly figures are explicitly excluded from being used as settlement values for the market ^[2][3][1][4]. While the relevant comparison involves the EIA weekly U.S. refinery-utilization series WPULEUS3 and the monthly U.S. series MOPUEUS2, weekly data, four-week averages, and forecasts are all explicitly excluded from the settlement process ^[2][1].

Market settlement uses the first published monthly utilization figure. The prediction market settles on the first published November 2026 monthly U.S. Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (MOPUEUS2) figure, with any later revisions being excluded from consideration ^[1]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) describes its Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) as weekly estimates derived from sample surveys. The EIA also maintains a distinct monthly refinery-utilization dataset ^[2][5][6].

Specific dates and reporting exceptions apply to November 2026. The market's estimated resolution date for November 2026 is January 29, 2027 ^[1]. Additionally, the weekly reporting calendar for November 2026 includes a Veterans Day exception for the data week ending November 6, with its release scheduled for November 12, 2026 ^[7].

Late-season forecasts indicate low incremental risk for November 2026 outages. Late-season hurricane forecasts for November 2026 suggest a low, but not zero, incremental risk of hurricane-driven unplanned outages for Gulf Coast refineries, favoring no hurricane-driven outage as the base case ^[1][2][4][3]. As of October 25, 2026, the season has been unusually inactive; NOAA's official summary shows an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 19.5, which is 83% below the 1991–2020 normal ^[1][2][3]. Both NOAA and CSU's latest forecasts maintain a well-below-normal season, expecting strong El Niño and high Atlantic vertical wind shear to contribute to this outlook ^[1][2][4][3].

Seasonal forecasts don't predict landfalls, but individual storms pose material risks. Both NOAA and CSU emphasize that seasonal outlooks do not predict specific landfalls, and the impacts of individual storms are only predictable on roughly week-ahead timescales ^[1][2][4][3]. Should a storm occur, the operational risk to refineries is material; October's Hurricane Isaias, for instance, led to offshore shut-ins of approximately 25% of U.S. Gulf oil production and 16% of Gulf natural-gas production. This event posed a threat to major refineries, identifying power outages and flooding as potential disruptors ^[5][6].

Several scheduled releases will influence November U.S. refinery utilization. Key November catalysts include weekly API/EIA inventory and utilization releases ^[1][2][3], the EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10 ^[1], and OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report around November 11 ^[4]. Weekly crude/product inventory data around November 12 ^[3] is also anticipated, as are the November 18 FOMC decision ^[2] and CFTC positioning on November 27 ^[2]. EIA weekly dates can shift around holidays, requiring verification against the official calendar ^[5].

The fundamental backdrop for November utilization appears bullish. EIA reports U.S. refinery utilization averaged above 95% from May through September 2026, the highest for those months since 1998, driven by tight global product supplies and strong diesel margins; 3Q26 utilization averaged 95% ^[6][7]. Kpler expects September–December 2026 U.S. refinery runs to average about 16.9 million barrels per day, roughly 450 thousand barrels per day above year-ago levels, supported by light autumn maintenance, strong margins, export demand, and constrained Russian/Middle Eastern product supply. High utilization raises outage risk ^[8]. Bearish counterforces include a forecast for 2026 U.S. transport-fuel demand down about 155 thousand barrels per day year over year, and EIA's expectation for crack spreads to decline as inventories slightly recover ^[6][1]. However, distillate inventories remain below the 2021–2025 average, and diesel cracks stay historically elevated ^[6]. While November is seasonally after the main summer driving peak, the 2026 supply-tightness and export backdrop argue against assuming a normal seasonal decline ^[8][6][1]. As of October 25, 2026, prediction markets strongly price high November 2026 U.S. refinery utilization, with the strongest consensus for utilization above 88%–90%, indicating a broad high-utilization thesis rather than precise threshold probabilities ^{[9][10][11][12]}.