California gas prices tomorrow
Short Answer
California gas prices are expected to remain above $5.9350 tomorrow, driven by persistent upward pressure from global geopolitical conflicts, supply disruptions, and decreasing inventories. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's 55.0 percentage point spike on September 12, 2026, lacks a specific reported catalyst. Research did not identify a singular news event or social media post that coincided with the sharp upward move in probability.
The broader market sentiment reflects a high-price environment for California fuel. On September 11, the day before the spike, AAA reported the average price for regular gasoline at $5.9272 per gallon, just shy of this market's $5.9350 strike price. This sustained pressure on prices stems from Middle East instability involving Iran, which has disrupted global crude oil supplies and refining capacity. Diesel prices have also reached critical levels, with some stations capping displays at $9.999 per gallon.
All price movements occurred on zero traded volume. This indicates the probabilities were set by the market's originator and do not reflect active trading or conviction from market participants.
- California gas prices are likely flat to slightly higher tomorrow.
- Geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions drive modest price increases.
- Higher price thresholds appear tempered; no sharp one-day move expected.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.9700 | 99.0% | 99.1% | Gas prices are expected to remain elevated or increase modestly due to global conflicts and supply disruptions. |
| Above 6.0150 | 1.0% | 1.2% | Upward pressure from global conflicts, supply disruptions, and decreasing inventories suggests modest price increases. |
| Above 5.9550 | 99.0% | 99.2% | Gas prices are expected to remain elevated or increase modestly due to global conflicts and supply disruptions. |
| Above 5.9600 | 99.0% | 99.2% | Gas prices are expected to remain elevated or increase modestly due to global conflicts and supply disruptions. |
| Above 5.9650 | 99.0% | 99.2% | Gas prices are expected to remain elevated or increase modestly due to global conflicts and supply disruptions. |
Current Context
California gas prices remain elevated, driven by Middle East instability and supply tightness. The average price for regular gasoline in California was $5.9272 per gallon as of September 11, 2026 [^][^]. Diesel prices approached critical levels by mid-September, with some stations capping at $9.999 per gallon due to display limitations [^]. This surge reflects ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, which has destabilized the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted global crude oil supplies and refining capacity [^][^][^][^]. Global crude prices are a primary driver for California, with Brent settling at $104.61 and WTI at $100.05 on Friday, after WTI gained 9.30% for the week [^][^]. The U.S. saw crude oil inventories decrease by 9.3 million barrels and gasoline inventories by 2.3 million barrels as of September 12, 2026, typically exerting upward pressure on retail prices [^]. Geopolitical events such as drone attacks shutting Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Houthi forces seizing Perim Island further contributed to market tightness [^][^]. The California Energy Commission (CEC) notes that the Strait of Hormuz disruption has maintained a risk premium, though in-state refinery production, inventories, and imports are currently meeting gasoline demand, with California prices moving in line with national increases [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Tomorrow's prices expect stability, with geopolitical risks and inventory levels defining shifts. California pump prices are forecast to stay elevated but relatively stable tomorrow, moving flat to modestly higher, rather than making a sharp one-day move [^][^][^][^][^][^]. A new supply shock, such as a refinery outage or shipping disruption, poses the main upside risk, particularly given California's isolated market [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, a modest easing could occur if crude softens, potentially influenced by diplomatic signals like the Iran-Gulf states meeting scheduled for Monday in Muscat, Oman, to establish a Hormuz shipping route [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The state is expected to transition to cheaper winter-blend gasoline on November 1, though experts caution that global market volatility may limit the magnitude of any price relief [^]. Global oil market volatility remains high due to inventory drawdowns compensating for production losses, and market experts are monitoring China's re-entry into the global crude market as a potential driver for further fluctuations [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 September 12, 2026: 84.0pp spike
Price increased from 7.0% to 91.0%
Outcome: Above 5.9900
What happened: The research does not identify a specific social media post or traditional news announcement as the primary driver for an 84.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 5.9900" prediction market on September 12, 2026. Official data for that date indicates no expert-validated "spike" or singular social media-driven event at the $5.99 price point [^][^][^]. While the California average gas price was $5.9272 on September 11, 2026, nearing the threshold amidst ongoing geopolitical instability and refinery closures [^][^], the provided information does not evidence a distinct, sudden catalyst for the market's specific 84.0 percentage point probability increase. Therefore, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific prediction market movement based on the available information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution occurs if the California gas price is above the specific threshold for the contract (e.g., $6.0000, $6.0050, or $6.0100), while a NO resolution occurs if the price is at or below this threshold. The market commences on September 12, 10:00 PM EDT, with the "Max payout" date stated as September 12, 2026. Key details such as the source and exact measurement time of the California gas price data for settlement are not explicitly provided in the contract rules.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.9350 | $1.00 | $0.14 | 99% |
| Above 5.9400 | $1.00 | $0.14 | 99% |
| Above 5.9450 | $1.00 | $0.14 | 99% |
| Above 5.9500 | $1.00 | $0.14 | 99% |
| Above 5.9550 | $1.00 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above 5.9600 | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 5.9650 | $1.00 | $0.29 | 99% |
| Above 5.9700 | $1.00 | $0.33 | 99% |
| Above 5.9900 | $0.98 | $0.56 | 91% |
| Above 5.9850 | $0.97 | $0.55 | 86% |
| Above 5.9950 | $0.76 | $0.75 | 85% |
| Above 6.0000 | $0.78 | $0.99 | 13% |
| Above 6.0100 | $0.72 | $0.93 | 12% |
| Above 6.0050 | $0.81 | $0.99 | 11% |
| Above 6.0150 | $0.75 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 5.9750 | $0.98 | $0.37 | 0% |
| Above 5.9800 | $0.99 | $0.42 | 0% |
Market Discussion
California regular gasoline prices are expected to hold near the current statewide average of ~$5.93/gal, with a forecast range of $5.90–$5.98/gal for September 13, 2026, and a bias for prices to be flat to slightly higher [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This outlook is primarily attributed to ongoing geopolitical instability pushing crude oil prices back toward $100 per barrel, with Brent settling at $104.61/bbl and WTI at $100.05/bbl on September 12, 2026, alongside a global refinery shortage exacerbated by California's isolated market and refinery closures [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Additionally, prediction markets on September 11, 2026, showed a 99% implied probability that average regular gas prices would remain above $5.89 on September 12, 2026 [^][^].
5. Trust Index
“Above 6.0” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score72Good
Market integrity is low (50), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score64Caution
Trust score70Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What specific overnight developments in the Strait of Hormuz or at a major California refinery could trigger a significant gas price move on September 13?
| Potential Gas Price Trigger (Sept 13, 2026) | Developments related to Strait of Hormuz, e.g., agreement to reopen [^] |
|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz Status (Sept 12, 2026) | Central flashpoint in US-Iran conflict; navigation restricted by US naval blockade and Iranian threats [^][^][^] |
| California Refinery Incidents (Sept 11-12, 2026) | No significant new fires reported; historical incidents often conflated [^][^][^][^] |
Strait of Hormuz developments could significantly impact California gas prices. A potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, for instance, could trigger a significant gas price move in California on September 13, 2026 [^]. As of September 12, 2026, the Strait remains a critical flashpoint in the ongoing 2026 US-Iran conflict. Navigation is currently severely restricted due to a US naval blockade and Iranian threats, following the collapse of peace talks in April 2026 [^][^][^].
Other Strait developments or refinery issues could also move prices. Beyond reopening, increased fears of an extended conflict in Iran [^] or an intensification of the existing US naval blockade and Iranian threats [^][^][^] could also trigger price changes. Regarding California refineries, there are no reports of a significant new fire occurring overnight on September 11-12, 2026, that would cause a price move, distinguishing this from historical incidents like the October 2025 fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery [^][^][^][^]. The provided facts do not detail specific overnight refinery developments for September 12-13, 2026 [^].
7. How do the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory reports and California Energy Commission (CEC) supply forecasts align with the market consensus for stable prices tomorrow?
| California Gas Price Prediction | Exceed $5.9900 (Kalshi) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| US Crude Oil Stockpiles | Recent declines [^] |
| Market Volatility Factor | Global supply disruptions, Strait of Hormuz impact [^][^][^] |
Prediction markets anticipate continued high California gas prices tomorrow. Kalshi indicates high confidence that California gas prices tomorrow will exceed the $5.9900 threshold, reflecting a consensus of continued high prices rather than stability [^][^]. This expectation is supported by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory reports, which show recent declines in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. These declines contribute to broader energy market tightening and persistent upward pressure on California gasoline prices [^][^].
Global disruptions contribute to California's volatile gasoline market. The California Energy Commission (CEC) notes that while gasoline supplies have been sufficient, the market remains volatile due to global supply disruptions, specifically citing the impact of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on oil cargoes [^][^][^]. Additionally, the CEC's supply forecasts are limited by a finite reliability window, beyond which they emphasize uncertainty [^][^]. This limitation aligns with the prediction market's consensus for continued high prices and contradicts any expectation of stable, low-cost prices [^][^].
8. How does the current price volatility from the Iran conflict compare to the impact of major California refinery outages in the last five years?
| Iran War Start Date | February 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Global Oil Disruption | Largest geopolitical oil supply disruption in history [^][^][^] |
| California Market Susceptibility | Uniquely susceptible to local refinery outages [^][^] |
The 2026 Iran war profoundly impacts global oil markets. This conflict, which began in February 2026, has generated heightened price volatility and a massive surge in global crude benchmarks. It is identified as the largest geopolitical oil supply disruption in history, contributing to significant instability in the global oil market [^][^][^].
California gas prices remain highly vulnerable to local factors. Despite the global benchmark volatility caused by the Iran conflict, California's gasoline prices are particularly susceptible to local refinery outages. This vulnerability is attributed to the state's isolated market, distinct fuel formulation requirements, and limited pipeline connectivity [^][^]. Prediction markets for September 13, 2026, indicate a very high probability that average California regular gas prices will remain elevated, with some markets resolving based on prices exceeding thresholds such as $5.99 [^][^]. However, the available facts do not provide sufficient information to directly compare the current price volatility from the Iran conflict to the impact of specific major California refinery outages in the past five years.
9. What are the latest short-term (24-48 hour) price and supply projections available from the EIA's PADD V reports and Argus Media spot market data?
| EIA 2026 Average Retail Gasoline Price | $3.78/gallon (as of September 9, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| EIA 2026 Average Wholesale Gasoline Price | $2.91/gallon (as of September 9, 2026) [^][^][^] |
| California Average Retail Gas Price | trending above $5.89 (as of September 11, 2026) [^][^] |
Neither EIA nor Argus Media provide 24-48 hour price projections. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook offers monthly projections, not daily or short-term forecasts for gasoline and diesel [^]. Similarly, Argus Media provides real-time, intraday spot market data primarily for market monitoring, rather than public, short-term predictive forecasts [^].
EIA offers longer-term gasoline price projections and supply outlooks. As of September 9, 2026, the EIA projects the 2026 average retail gasoline price to be $3.78 per gallon and wholesale prices at $2.91 per gallon [^][^][^]. This data is part of the Short-Term Energy Outlook, which also addresses the outlook for diesel and gasoline supplies [^][^][^][^].
Argus Media and other sources provide real-time market data. Argus Media's Spot Ticker offers live prices for US diesel and gasoline, utilized for intraday market monitoring [^][^]. Furthermore, as of September 11, 2026, California's average retail gas prices were observed to be trending above $5.89 [^][^]. Prediction markets indicated a 99% probability that prices would remain above this threshold for the September 12, 2026, resolution [^].
10. What impact could overnight trading in Asian markets, particularly crude oil orders from China, have on WTI and Brent futures before the September 13 market resolution?
| Chinese Crude Oil Futures | Exhibits stronger co-movements and information transmission with global benchmarks (WTI, Brent) during overnight sessions [^][^] |
|---|---|
| California Gasoline Prices | More influenced by local factors (refinery production, supply constraints, regulations) than immediate overnight Asian market fluctuations [^][^][^] |
| Prediction Markets | Reflect aggregated expectations of economic variables and supply/demand conditions, not individual overnight trades [^] |
Chinese crude oil futures significantly influence global WTI and Brent benchmarks. Overnight trading in Chinese crude oil futures (INE) demonstrates strong integration with global benchmarks such as WTI and Brent, exhibiting pronounced co-movements and information transmission [^][^]. This overnight session aligns with the daytime hours of major global markets, underscoring the interconnectedness of these international crude oil markets [^].
California gasoline prices primarily reflect local factors, not overnight Asian markets. California gasoline prices are less influenced by immediate fluctuations in overnight Asian markets, and are instead more sensitive to local factors [^][^]. The region's reliance on in-region refinery output makes its gasoline prices particularly susceptible to local supply disruptions, refinery maintenance, and legislative policies, which collectively have a greater impact than instantaneous international crude oil market sentiment [^][^][^].
US and California gas price predictions resolve based on aggregated expectations. Prediction markets for US and California gas prices typically resolve based on data from sources such as AAA [^]. These markets reflect aggregated expectations regarding economic variables and broader supply/demand conditions, rather than direct reactions to individual overnight trades in Asian markets [^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
California regular gasoline is likely to be flat to slightly higher tomorrow, estimated at ~$5.93/gal, a potential +0–2 cents increase [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Prediction markets track whether the state's average regular gas price will exceed $5.99 on September 13, 2026 [^]. As of September 11, 2026, AAA reported California regular at $5.9272/gal, marking a +2.09% weekly and +6.12% monthly rise, and roughly $1.63/gal above the national average of $4.2950 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This elevation stems primarily from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which has disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, driving market volatility [^][^][^][^]. WTI crude jumped +9.3% this week to ~$100/bbl, with Brent settling at $104.61 after peaking near $108 [^][^].
California's fuel market faces structural vulnerabilities, including its isolation, reliance on a unique, locally produced blend, and declining in-state refining capacity [^] [^] [^] . Historic diesel prices could also hit" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. These factors increase dependence on long-distance imports, susceptible to supply chain delays [^][^][^]. Inventory for motor gasoline was down 2.3 million barrels for the week ending September 12, 2026, remaining 1 percent below the 5-year average [^][^]. Looming catalysts include Iran and Gulf states meeting on September 14, 2026, in Muscat to sign an Iran-Oman shipping route agreement [^][^][^][^][^][^][^], and an FOMC meeting next week where energy-driven inflation complicates rate decisions [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Potential price relief is anticipated around November 1, 2026, with the switch to a cheaper 'winter blend' gasoline, though geopolitical turmoil could mute this effect [^]. Market analysts present diverse oil price scenarios, from a 'bull' case of Brent ~$115/bbl due to intensifying conflict, to a 'bear' case of Brent ~$80/bbl contingent on diplomatic de-escalation [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 13, 2026
- Expiration: September 20, 2026
- Closes: September 13, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: California regular gasoline is likely to be flat to slightly higher tomorrow, estimated at ~$5.93/gal, a potential +0–2 cents increase [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets track whether the state's average regular gas price will exceed $5.99 on September 13, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: As of September 11, 2026, AAA reported California regular at $5.9272/gal, marking a +2.09% weekly and +6.12% monthly rise, and roughly $1.63/gal above the national average of $4.2950 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This elevation stems primarily from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which has disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, driving market volatility [^] [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASDCA-26SEP12-6.0150: NO (Sep 12, 2026)
- KXAAAGASDCA-26SEP12-6.0100: NO (Sep 12, 2026)
- KXAAAGASDCA-26SEP12-6.0050: NO (Sep 12, 2026)
- KXAAAGASDCA-26SEP12-6.0000: NO (Sep 12, 2026)
- KXAAAGASDCA-26SEP12-5.9950: NO (Sep 12, 2026)
