How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14)
Short Answer
At least one Executive Order is likely this week, driven by three national emergencies set to expire between November 12 and 14 that will require executive action to extend, priced at 83.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market probability for at least one executive order this week saw its largest single-day move on November 9, spiking 16.0 percentage points. This was primarily a technical correction. Traders aggressively sold the "Above 4" contracts, causing a 78.0 percentage point drop in that market, which in turn reallocated probability to more likely, lower-count outcomes like "Above 1". The catalyst for this realignment was the fact that zero executive orders had been reported signed for the month of November as of that date.
An earlier 19.0 percentage point spike on November 7 was attributed to "news and social media catalysts related to anticipated executive actions." While social media was cited as a driver, the available information does not specify any particular posts or accounts. Both of these significant price increases occurred on light trading volume. The overall trend in the "Above 1" market has been upward, moving from 24.0% on November 7 to 62.0% by November 9.
- At least one Executive Order appears likely from three expiring national emergencies.
- Two or more EOs become probable if separate actions extend individual emergencies.
- A recent White House video and higher second-term rate support increased activity.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 | 62.0% | 73.9% | At least one expiring national emergency is expected to require executive action this week. |
| Above 2 | 38.0% | 51.7% | Addressing at least two expiring national emergencies with separate orders would reach this threshold. |
| Above 4 | 12.0% | 15.6% | Beyond the three expiring emergencies, other executive actions are possible. |
| Above 3 | 15.0% | 24.0% | All three expiring national emergencies may be extended via individual Executive Orders. |
| Above 0 | 83.0% | 86.4% | Three national emergencies are set to expire this week, requiring executive action to extend them. |
Current Context
Prediction markets show increased likelihood of Executive Orders this week. As of November 9, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the market for Executive Orders signed this week (11/8-11/14) indicates an 83% probability for Above 0, 58.5% for Above 1, 33.5% for Above 2, and 14.5% for Above 3 or Above 4, with 5,800 contracts traded [1][2]. Market resolution is based on the signing date recorded in the Federal Register, not the publication date, with typical delays of one or more days between signing and publication [2][3]. This week's 83% probability for Above 0 contrasts sharply with the previous week's market (11/1-11/7), which resolved with Above 0 at less than 1%, suggesting the official register did not yet list an Executive Order for that period [4].
Trump signed 67 Executive Orders in 2026, with the last in October. President Trump has signed 67 Executive Orders in 2026, specifically EO 14372 through EO 14438 [3][5][6]. The most recent was 'Decreasing Housing Costs for the American People,' signed October 22, 2026, and published October 28, 2026 [3][5][6]. Across his second presidential term, which began January 20, 2025, President Trump had signed 292 executive orders, 90 memoranda, and 191 proclamations as of October 28, 2026 [7].
AI models project moderate Executive Order activity for November 2026. AI model consensus as of November 9, 2026, forecasts 5-7 Executive Orders for all of November 2026 with a 29.8% probability; individual models range from 22% to 45% for this outcome [8]. Several key dates this week could prompt executive actions, including November 10 (EO 14300 Nuclear Regulatory Commission reform final rules due), November 12 (Notice 13959 China investment emergency expiration), and November 14 (Notice 12170 Iran emergency and Notice 12938 WMD proliferation emergency expiration) [9].
Sources (9)
- 1How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Federal Register :: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 4How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/1kalshi.com
- 5Executive Orders – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 6openregs: SELECT executive_order_number AS eo_number, title, signing_date, publication_date, html_url FROM presidential_documents WHERE document_type = 'executive_order' AND executive_order_number IS NOT NULL ORDER BY executive_order_number DESC LIMIT 500regs.datadawn.org
- 7Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8How many executive orders will Trump sign in November 2026?eye2.ai
- 9Impact Dates · Executive Ordersexecutive-orders.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 4
📉 November 09, 2026: 78.0pp drop
Price decreased from 90.0% to 12.0%
What happened: The 78.0 percentage point drop for the "Above 4" outcome on November 09, 2026, was primarily driven by the market correcting to align with the low expectation for Executive Orders that week. As of November 08, 2026, zero Executive Orders were reported signed in November, with the latest order identified on October 22, 2026, and the point forecast for the week was only 1 Executive Order [1][2]. This suggests the market adjusted sharply from an unsustainable high price for "Above 4" to reflect the actual low activity and forecast [1][2]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity is cited in the provided research.
📈 November 08, 2026: 89.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 90.0%
What happened: The research provided does not detail any specific social media activity or traditional news announcements that would legitimately cause an 89.0 percentage point spike for "Above 4" Executive Orders signed during the week of November 8-14, 2026. Official records indicate the last Executive Order was signed on October 22, 2026 [3]. While a November 5, 2026, Oval Office action occurred, it was officially identified as a proclamation, not an Executive Order, and fell outside the market's target week [4][5]. Therefore, without evidence of specific social media posts disseminating misinformation, social media activity appears irrelevant or mostly noise, suggesting the spike was likely driven by significant factual misinterpretation or speculative trading.
Outcome: Above 1
📈 November 07, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 24.0% to 43.0%
What happened: The 19.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 1" outcome on November 7, 2026, was attributed to "news and social media catalysts related to anticipated executive actions" [1][6]. While social media was identified as a catalyst, the available research does not specify any particular posts, influential accounts, or viral narratives that directly caused the movement. Therefore, social media appears to have been a contributing accelerant, though specific evidence identifying it as the primary driver is not available.
Sources (6)
- 1How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2Executive Orders Tracker | United States Tribuneunitedstatestribune.com
- 3Executive Orders – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 4ESTABLISHMENT OF THE OVAL OFFICE NATIONAL MONUMENT – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 5President Donald J. Trump Establishes the Oval Office as a...whitehouse.gov
- 6How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For any "Above X" market, a YES resolution occurs if Donald Trump signs more than X Executive Orders, and a NO resolution occurs if he signs X or fewer. The relevant period for counting these Executive Orders is from November 8th to November 14th. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | $0.85 | $0.19 | 83% |
| Above 1 | $0.63 | $0.45 | 62% |
| Above 2 | $0.36 | $0.67 | 38% |
| Above 3 | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Above 4 | $0.16 | $0.89 | 12% |
Market Discussion
The best concise forecast for the November 8–14 period is 1 executive order, with a reasonable probabilistic range of 0–2 and an approximate expected count near 1.0–1.3 orders [1][2]. This outlook follows a period of low executive order activity, as 0 orders were reported in the seven days preceding November 9 [3]. The White House executive-order page listed EO 14438, dated October 22, 2026, as the newest displayed order, indicating no new orders were publicly visible for the target week yet [4].
Sources (4)
- 1How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Trump Tracker: Executive Orders, Tariffs & Stock Trades | Geopolitics Alphageopoliticsalpha.com
- 4Executive Orders – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good
Trade quality20% of score42High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score72Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What executive actions might be triggered by the national emergency expirations for China, Iran, and WMDs between November 12 and 14?
| China Emergency Expiration | November 12, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Iran Emergency Expiration | November 14, 2026 [1] |
| WMD Proliferation Emergency Expiration | November 14, 2026 [1] |
Three national emergencies require executive action for extension in 2026. Between November 12 and 14, 2026, three national emergencies are scheduled to expire, each necessitating a new executive order or presidential notice for their continuation [1]. These emergencies involve China securities investments, the Iran national emergency, and the national emergency concerning WMD proliferation [1].
China and Iran national emergencies approach November 2026 expiration dates. The national emergency related to China, specifically concerning securities investments that finance certain companies of the People's Republic of China, is set to expire on November 12, 2026 [1]. The Iran national emergency, initially established by Executive Order 12957 and reaffirmed by a February 6, 2026 executive order that created a new tariff-based regime, is scheduled to expire on November 14, 2026 [1][2][3].
WMD emergency expiration impacts fentanyl's weapon of mass destruction designation. The national emergency pertaining to WMD proliferation also has an expiration date of November 14, 2026 [1]. This emergency serves as the foundation for the recent designation of fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction [2]. This classification mandates agencies to intensify investigations, pursue financial and asset-related actions, and update military directives for responses to homeland chemical incidents to include fentanyl [2].
7. What specific events or announcements explain the market's shift from predicting zero EOs for Nov 1-7 to an 83% chance of at least one for Nov 8-14?
| Probability of at least one EO (Nov 8-14) | 83% (Kalshi) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Date of White House video | November 5, 2026 [3][1][2] |
| Probability of more than one EO (Nov 8-14) | 58.5% (PredictPedia) to 62% (Kalshi) [1][2] |
A White House video significantly shifted Executive Order market predictions. The market for Executive Orders (EOs) dramatically shifted from forecasting zero EOs for November 1–7 to an 83% probability of at least one EO being issued between November 8–14, 2026 [3][1][2]. This change primarily stemmed from a White House video, "President Trump Participates in Signing Time," released on November 5, 2026 [3][1][2]. This event caught traders' attention, especially since the latest listed EO on the official White House page, EO 14438, was dated October 22, 2026, suggesting a period of inactivity in such actions before November [4].
Proclamations were issued but not counted as market-relevant EOs. Although the White House published several proclamations between November 3–5, 2026, including the American Declaration of Freedom in Space, Anti-Communism Week, and the Oval Office National Monument, these were not considered EOs under the market’s specific numbered-EO rules [5][6][7][1]. The Federal Register indicates that official publication typically occurs at least one day, and often several days, after an EO is signed, meaning public posting dates are not perfect real-time indicators [8]. However, the space proclamation did mention the administration had signed landmark executive orders and directives, which could have fueled expectations for subsequent actions [5].
Market contracts reflected strong confidence in one or two future EOs. Following these developments, Kalshi’s "Above 0" contract for November 8–14 was quoted at 83% in a November 9, 2026 snapshot, reflecting a strong belief in at least one EO [1][2]. Furthermore, the "Above 1" contract showed a 58.5% quote on PredictPedia and 62% on Kalshi, indicating that traders primarily adjusted their expectations to anticipate one or two orders rather than a larger batch [1][2].
Sources (8)
- 1How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 2How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 3President Trump Participates in Signing Time, Nov. 5, 2026whitehouse.gov
- 4Executive Orders – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 5THE AMERICAN DECLARATION OF FREEDOM IN SPACE – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 6ESTABLISHMENT OF THE OVAL OFFICE NATIONAL MONUMENT – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 7ANTI-COMMUNISM WEEK, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 82026 Donald J. Trump Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
8. How does Trump's average weekly rate of signing Executive Orders in his second term (2025-2026) compare to the same period in his first term?
| Second Term Weekly Pace | 3.19 orders per week [1] |
|---|---|
| First Term Weekly Pace | 1.06 orders per week [1][2] |
| Total Second Term EOs | 292 executive orders through November 9, 2026 [3][4][5] |
This rate represents a substantial acceleration compared to his first term. During his initial four years, Trump issued 220 executive orders, averaging about 1.06 orders per week [1][2]. The second-term weekly rate is approximately 3.0 times higher than the first-term rate, marking an increase of about 2.13 orders per week [1].
Sources (5)
- 1Executive Orders | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
- 2List of executive orders in the first Trump presidencyen.wikipedia.org
- 3Federal Register :: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 4Federal Register :: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 5Federal Register :: Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
9. What is the typical reporting lag between a White House press release on a signed EO and its official appearance in the Federal Register?
| Minimum Federal Register Publication Delay | At least one day (Official Federal Register guidance) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Typical Federal Register Publication Delay | 3-5 days (based on recent Executive Orders) [3] |
| Normal Range of Publication Delay | 1-6 days (based on recent Executive Orders) [3] |
Executive Order publication in the Federal Register always experiences delays. Official guidance from the Federal Register indicates a minimum one-day delay between a presidential signature on an Executive Order and its official appearance, with typical delays often extending to several days [1][2]. Presidential documents receive priority processing upon receipt and are made available for public inspection on the business day preceding their official publication [1][2].
Recent examples confirm executive order publication delays often exceed one day. Executive Orders signed by Donald J. Trump in 2026 illustrate this reporting lag, with observed delays of 3 days (October 19 to 22), 3 days (September 29 to October 2), and 6 days (October 22 to 28) [3]. These instances suggest that a practical central estimate for publication delays falls within approximately 3 to 5 days, with a broader normal range typically spanning 1 to 6 days [3].
White House press release timing remains unaddressed by available information. The provided research does not specify the typical timing of a White House press release regarding a signed Executive Order, either in relation to its signature or its Federal Register appearance. Consequently, Federal Register publication for a given week, such as the November 8–14, 2026 resolution week, is not considered a reliable same-week proxy for executive order signatures, particularly because orders signed later in the week would typically publish after the market window [1][3].
10. Could the November 10 deadline for final rules on Nuclear Regulatory Commission reform (EO 14300) precipitate a new, related Executive Order from Trump this week?
| NRC Final Rules Deadline | November 23, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| EO 14300 Signing Date | May 23, 2025 [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
| Trump Total EOs Signed (as of Nov 9, 2026) | 292 [7] |
The November 10 deadline for Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) reform rules is incorrect. The actual deadline for the NRC to issue final rules related to Executive Order (EO) 14300 is November 23, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This deadline was established when President Trump signed EO 14300 on May 23, 2025, directing the NRC to issue final rules within 18 months [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The NRC has publicly affirmed its commitment to this timeline, stating it has a "clear plan and a firm deadline: final rules by November 23, 2026" [3][4][5]. However, as of November 4, 2026, no final rule had yet been published [3][4][5].
No new related Executive Order has been signed this week. As of November 9, 2026, no evidence was found of a new Trump executive order specifically related to NRC reform or the previously mentioned November 10 deadline being signed or announced for the week of November 8-14, 2026 [8][1][3][4][7][9][10]. Official records indicate that no executive orders have been signed this week (November 8-14, 2026), with President Trump's total number of signed Executive Orders remaining at 292 [7]. Prediction market odds as of November 9, 2026, reflected various probabilities for the number of Executive Orders signed during this week [9][10][11][12][13].
Sources (13)
- 1Wholesale Revision of Regulations Under Executive Order...nrc.gov
- 2Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commissionwhitehouse.gov
- 3🇺🇸 We're making major progress under Executive Order...facebook.com
- 4What ALARA Stands For and What Is Changing in 2026orsif.org
- 5NRC implements Executive Order 14300 with clear plan...facebook.com
- 6Actions to Address Executive Order 14300: Reforming...catf.us
- 7Tool: How Many Executive Orders Will Trump Sign This Week?pro.oddsassist.com
- 8NRC provides timeline update on rules, meeting EO deadlineans.org
- 9How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 10How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 11How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 12How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 13How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/8 - 11/14) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXEOWEEK-26OCT24-4: NO (Nov 07, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26OCT24-3: NO (Nov 07, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26OCT24-2: NO (Nov 07, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26OCT24-1: YES (Oct 28, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26OCT24-0: YES (Oct 22, 2026)
