How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (4/26-5/2)
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Trump is scheduled to hold one rally in Central Florida this week.
- Indiana and Ohio primaries are scheduled for May 5, 2026.
- Trump often endorses candidates just before upcoming primary elections.
- No shift is reported in Trump's endorsement strategy.
- No unendorsed GOP candidates publicly met Trump recently.
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 26, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 31.0%
Outcome: At least 20
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump endorses at least 15 people for their election on Truth Social between April 26, 2026, and May 2, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified from Truth Social, and only new, clear, affirmative statements of support qualify, with reaffirmations of previous endorsements not counting. The market closes for trading on May 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, with a projected payout on the same day at 10:30 AM EDT.
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Many Endorsements Did Trump Make on Truth Social (April 26-May 2)?
| 2022 Distinct Truth Social Endorsements | 0 (Based on available sources for Truth Social for the period) [1] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Distinct Truth Social Endorsements | 2 (Trent Staggs, Gabe Evans) [2] |
| Mean Distinct Endorsements | 1 (Calculated from 2022 and 2024 data) [1] |
6. Which States Hold Primaries in May 2026 With Trump Endorsements?
| Indiana Primary Election Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Ohio Primary Election Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 [2] |
| Trump Endorsement Activity | Several challengers for Indiana state legislative seats actively seeking Trump's favor [3] |
Sources (7)
- 1Indiana Primary Election - Tuesday, May 5, 2026 | BallotReadyballotready.org
- 2Ohio 2026 primary election date, candidates, voting changes to knowdispatch.com
- 3Trump endorses more GOP challengers to anti-redistricting senatorseu.indystar.com
- 4Indiana's 2026 primary: Who's running for congressional and legislative seatswfyi.org
- 5Trump issues endorsements for Indiana Republicans who supported redistrictingwfyi.org
- 6Trump endorses challengers to Indiana GOP senators - Indianapolis News | Indiana Weather | Indiana Traffic | WISH-TV |wishtv.com
- 7Republican Party primaries in Ohio, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
7. Is Trump's Endorsement Strategy Shifting in Primary Races?
| Shift to batching/late endorsements | No intelligence indicates a shift to batching endorsements by state or holding them until the final days before a primary [1]. |
|---|---|
| Engagement in Texas primaries | Trump "flooded" the 2026 Texas primaries with endorsements [2]. |
| Selectivity in endorsements | He has selectively "dodged" or "sat out" endorsements in "messy" or "nastiest" GOP Senate primary battles [3]. |
Sources (8)
- 1Exclusive: Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan book on Trump, "Regime Change," coming in Juneaxios.com
- 2Donald Trump floods 2026 Texas primaries with his endorsementstexastribune.org
- 3Trump dodges endorsements in messy GOP Senate primarieswashingtonexaminer.com
- 4GOP leaders fret as Trump sits out the party’s nastiest primary battles — with Senate control on the line | CNN Politicsus.cnn.com
- 5Trump Makes Endorsement in Key House Racedailysignal.com
- 6Donald J. Trump: "It is my Great Honor to endorse Highly Respected State Senator, Carrie Buck,... - Trump's Truthtrumpstruth.org
- 7Trump Endorses Constantino Over GOP Pick for NY House Seatconservativeinstitute.org
- 8Trump promises to endorse either Cornyn or Paxton – and to push the other to drop out | CNN Politicscnn.com
8. What is Donald Trump's Schedule and Endorsement Pattern for April 2026?
| Scheduled Event | Rally in Central Florida on April 27, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Other Events (April 26-May 2, 2026) | No multi-day rallies or legal proceedings listed [1] |
| Endorsement Pattern | Increased before primaries/visits, e.g., March 2026 Texas primaries [2] |
Sources (4)
- 1April 2026 - President's Public Schedule | Factba.serollcall.com
- 2Donald Trump floods 2026 Texas primaries with his endorsementstexastribune.org
- 3Trump Rolls Out Massive List of Endorsements on Truth Social Just Days Ahead of Key Primaries – americanhertiagecom.americanhertiageco.com
- 4Trump launches flurry of endorsements en route to Texas visityahoo.com
9. Have Unendorsed GOP Candidates Met Trump at Mar-a-Lago Recently?
| Unendorsed candidates meeting Trump | Zero (0) (Based on research findings) [1] |
|---|---|
| Relevant timeframe for meetings | 30 days prior to April 26, 2026 (March 27, 2026 - April 26, 2026) [1] |
| Dates of reported meetings outside timeframe | March 2025 (e.g., Ciattarelli, Spadea) [1] |
Sources (5)
- 1GOP candidates for governor Jack Ciattarelli and Bill Spadea want Donald Trump's supportinquirer.com
- 2Inside the effort to get Donald Trump to endorse in Maine’s Republican gubernatorial primarybangordailynews.com
- 3Trump at Palm Beach GOP gala as county's political landscape shiftsyahoo.com
- 4Trump may head to Mar-a-Lago on first trip since press-dinner shootingpalmbeachdailynews.com
- 5Trump endorses Anthony Constantino for NY-21, bucking state GOP, local Republican committees | Top Stories | nny360.comnny360.com
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 12 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A5: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A3: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A25: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A20: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A15: NO (Apr 26, 2026)