How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12)
Short Answer
At least three presidential actions will occur this week (9/6-9/12), as seven actions have already been taken by September 9, 2026. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market moved decisively on September 8 when President Trump signed multiple executive actions. The price spiked 65 points, from 34% to 99%, after the White House announced five proclamations related to the Tariff Act of 1930, one proclamation concerning the Defense Production Act, and an executive order for veterans' benefits. These seven distinct actions, all executed on a single day, confirmed the market's condition would be met.
Prior to the September 8 announcements, the market had priced the probability in a 27-34% range. After the actions were made public, the price settled at 99%, with subsequent trading volume reflecting trader conviction in a "YES" resolution. The market priced in the near-certainty of the outcome once official information became available.
- At least seven presidential actions appear certain, with seven already taken.
- Further actions beyond seven appear unlikely due to empty September 9-10, 2026 schedules.
- Reaching ten actions or more faces significant challenge without scheduled activity.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 6 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Seven presidential actions have already been taken this week. |
| At least 5 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Seven presidential actions have already been taken this week. |
| At least 4 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Seven presidential actions have already been taken this week. |
| At least 9 | 95.0% | 90.4% | A lack of scheduled actions on September 9 and 10, 2026, makes two more actions less likely. |
| At least 8 | 99.0% | 97.0% | No planned executive actions are scheduled for September 9 and 10, 2026. |
Current Context
President Donald J. Trump, in office since January 20, 2025 [^][^], executed specific actions early in the week. On September 8, 2026, President Trump signed five proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 [^]. These actions banned certain products from Canada and adjusted existing tariffs [^]. Also on September 8, the President spoke at a 'Steel Across America' event in advance of the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks [^].
Official records do not yet fully reflect all presidential actions for the entire week. As of September 9, 2026, no published record or official schedule indicates further specific presidential actions taken by President Trump for the week of September 6–12, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Presidential actions are taken responsively as events unfold; there is no fixed number of actions for any given week [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 15
📉 September 09, 2026: 25.0pp drop
Price decreased from 39.0% to 14.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the price drop was the documented number of presidential actions by September 9, 2026, which revealed a slower pace than likely anticipated by the market. As of this date, President Trump had signed two executive orders on September 8 and five proclamations on September 9, totaling seven actions for the week [^]. This cumulative count, made public by the date of the market movement, likely indicated that reaching "At least 15" actions by the end of the week (September 12) was less probable. No social media activity was identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant.
Outcome: At least 8
📈 September 08, 2026: 89.0pp spike
Price increased from 9.0% to 98.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was the official announcements of multiple presidential actions taken by President Donald J. Trump on September 8, 2026. On that date, he signed one proclamation regarding the Defense Production Act and one executive order concerning veterans' benefits [^][^]. Additionally, the White House confirmed he signed five proclamations addressing Canadian trade retaliation [^]. These seven actions, all announced on September 8, directly increased the likelihood of the "At least 8" outcome for the week. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as the provided sources do not include relevant social media activity.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "At least 10" contract, a YES resolution occurs if Donald Trump takes 10 or more presidential actions between September 6th and September 12th. A NO resolution will occur if he takes fewer than 10 actions during this period. The contract rules, as presented, do not explicitly define "presidential actions" or specify the official source for their count; a maximum payout date of September 13, 2026, is noted.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 2 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 3 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 4 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 5 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 6 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 7 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 8 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 9 | $0.96 | $0.05 | 95% |
| At least 10 | $0.62 | $0.44 | 62% |
| At least 15 | $0.13 | $0.93 | 14% |
Market Discussion
President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled "Adjusting Certain Delegations Under the Defense Production Act" on September 8, 2026 [^]. For the week of September 6-12, 2026, Trump's focus appears to be on midterm election campaigning and 9/11 commemorations [^], though the administration is also poised to reduce tariffs on Canadian automobiles [^]. There are no authoritative sources that provide a scheduled, quantifiable count of presidential actions for any given week [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
At least 6PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality86Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality86Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
At least 1Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
At least 2Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
At least 3Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
At least 4Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality85Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality85Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
At least 5Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality86Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality86Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
At least 7Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality83Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality83Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
At least 8Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality85Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality85Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
At least 9Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.19
At least 10Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality75Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality75Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
At least 15Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.16
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 9, 2026
6. What is President Trump's historical average number of weekly presidential actions during his second term (2025-2026)?
| Executive orders issued (2nd term) | 277-279 [^] |
|---|---|
| Average monthly executive orders (2nd term) | 14.6 [^][^][^] |
| Prediction market probability for >=4 actions (Sept 6-12, 2026) | >99% [^][^] |
President Trump issued hundreds of executive orders in his second term, which began on January 20, 2025. Between 277 and 279 executive orders have been issued since that date [^]. As of early September 2026, this volume translates to an average of approximately 14.6 executive orders per month [^][^][^].
The research lacks a specific weekly actions average for President Trump's second term (2025-2026). The provided information does not specify President Trump's historical average number of weekly presidential actions, nor does it convert the monthly executive order average into a weekly presidential actions figure [^][^][^]. A prediction market on Kalshi, however, indicates a greater than 99% implied probability for at least 4 presidential actions to occur between September 6 and September 12, 2026 [^][^]. This market will resolve based on the official White House "Presidential Actions" page by September 13, 2026 [^][^].
7. How might the pending House impeachment resolution (H.Res. 1486) influence President Trump's use of executive power during the week of September 6-12, 2026?
| H.Res. 1486 Introduction Date | August 24, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| H.Res. 1486 Status | Referred to House Judiciary Committee [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Executive Order on Interior Secretary's Authority | Signed September 8, 2026 [^][^] |
A House resolution to impeach President Trump remains pending in committee. H.Res. 1486, proposing the impeachment of President Donald Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors, was introduced by Rep. Al Green on August 24, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This resolution has been referred to the House Judiciary Committee, where its status is pending [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The available research does not specify how this pending impeachment resolution may have influenced President Trump's use of executive power during the week of September 6-12, 2026.
President Trump issued executive orders during the designated week and immediately prior. During the week of September 6-12, 2026, President Trump continued to utilize executive orders [^]. This included an order signed on September 8, 2026, which expanded the authority of the Secretary of the Interior under the Defense Production Act [^][^]. Additionally, multiple executive orders targeting livestock markets and beef labeling were signed on September 4, 2026, just before this period [^][^][^].
8. How does President Trump's rate of issuing executive actions in 2026 compare to that of President Biden during a similar point in his term?
| Trump's EO rate (second term) | 14.6 per month [^] |
|---|---|
| Biden's EO rate (2021-2025 term) | 3.4 per month [^] |
| Trump's total EOs (second term as of Sept 2026) | 277 [^] |
President Trump's second term shows a higher rate of executive orders. As of September 2026, President Trump has issued executive orders at a significantly higher rate than President Biden did during his 2021-2025 term [^].
Trump's 2026 executive order rate surpasses Biden's previous term. From the start of his second term on January 20, 2025, through September 2026, President Trump has issued 277 executive orders, averaging 14.6 orders per month [^]. In comparison, President Joe Biden's rate during his 2021-2025 term was 3.4 executive orders per month [^].
9. Which official government sources publish presidential actions, and what is the typical lag time between signing and public disclosure?
| Official publication delay | at least one day and often several days [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Predicted presidential actions (Sept 6-12, 2026) | at least 3 or at least 4 [^][^] |
| Implied probability of predicted actions | 99% [^][^] |
Official government sources publish presidential actions, often with a slight delay. Key official government sources for presidential actions include whitehouse.gov, the Federal Register, and the Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents, which is overseen by the Office of the Federal Register (OFR) at the National Archives [^][^][^][^]. Typically, there is a minimum delay of one day, and frequently several days, between the President signing a document and its subsequent publication in the Federal Register [^][^][^]. This lag occurs because the White House must first transmit the document to the OFR for processing before it can be formally published [^][^][^].
Prediction markets track presidential activity and estimate action frequency. These markets, such as Kalshi, monitor presidential activity by observing the publication dates displayed on the whitehouse.gov "Presidential Actions" page [^][^]. As an example, for the week of September 6-12, as of September 8, 2026, these markets were pricing "at least 3" or "at least 4" actions with a very high implied probability of 99% [^][^].
10. Aside from the five proclamations on September 8, what do White House schedules and press briefings for the rest of the week indicate about further planned actions?
| Planned Executive Actions (Sep 9-10, 2026) | None [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Planned Policy Signing Ceremonies (Sep 9-10, 2026) | None [^][^][^] |
| Primary Focus of Schedule (Sep 9-10, 2026) | Political events, Executive Time, and political travel [^][^][^] |
White House schedules indicate no further executive actions for September 9-10. Following the five proclamations on September 8, the White House schedules for September 9 and 10, 2026, do not indicate any further planned executive actions or official policy signing ceremonies. President Trump's schedule for this two-day period instead points to a predominant focus on political events [^][^][^].
President Trump's schedule highlights several political activities. For September 9 and 10, his schedule includes a meeting with MAGA Inc., an RNC roundtable, and attending the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas [^][^][^]. A significant portion of the President's time during these days is also allocated to "Executive Time" and political travel [^][^][^].
No specific plans are detailed for September 11 or 12. The provided information does not detail specific plans for September 11 or September 12, 2026, beyond the events listed for September 9 and 10.
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of September 9, 2026, there is no fixed or predictable number of presidential actions that Donald Trump will take during the week of September 6
12, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Presidential actions, such as executive orders, proclamations, and memoranda, are issued at the President's discretion based on policy priorities, legal requirements, and current events [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Forecasting specific numbers of actions in advance is not possible, as official presidential actions are published by the White House and the Federal Register only after they are signed, creating an inherent delay [^][^]. Predictive market or expert-curated data sources also do not provide a specific, deterministic count of presidential actions for this period [^][^].
Public records for the week of September 6
12, 2026, indicate President Trump spent the start of the week returning to Washington, D.C., from Bedminster, New Jersey, and engaged in commemorative events, including marking the anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks [^] [^] . A notable political development occurred on August 24, 2026, when a resolution (H. Res. 1486) was submitted in the House of Representatives to impeach President Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors [^][^]. Donald J. Trump is currently serving as President of the United States, having assumed office on January 20, 2025, for a term ending January 20, 2029 [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 13, 2026
- Expiration: December 12, 2026
- Closes: September 13, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: As of September 9, 2026, there is no fixed or predictable number of presidential actions that Donald Trump will take during the week of September 6 12, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Presidential actions, such as executive orders, proclamations, and memoranda, are issued at the President's discretion based on policy priorities, legal requirements, and current events [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Forecasting specific numbers of actions in advance is not possible, as official presidential actions are published by the White House and the Federal Register only after they are signed, creating an inherent delay [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Predictive market or expert-curated data sources also do not provide a specific, deterministic count of presidential actions for this period [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPACT-26AUG30-T9: NO (Sep 06, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26AUG30-T8: NO (Sep 06, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26AUG30-T7: NO (Sep 06, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26AUG30-T6: NO (Sep 06, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26AUG30-T5: NO (Sep 06, 2026)
