Will Tulsi Gabbard announce her departure as Director of National Intelligence?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Trump reportedly sought Tulsi Gabbard's resignation in March 2026.
- Advisors were polled on potential replacements for Gabbard.
- Policy disagreement regarding a March 2026 Iran strike arose.
- This conflict strongly indicates her departure before January 2027.
- Recent market activity reflects heightened expectations for her departure.
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026
📈 April 22, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 30.0% to 38.0%
Outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026
📈 April 21, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 41.0% to 51.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Tulsi Gabbard announces her departure or leaves the Director of National Intelligence role before August 1, 2026, based on public announcements from specified news organizations or official records. Otherwise, it resolves to "No," which can also occur if the role ceases to exist without a plausible successor. Temporary leaves, suspensions, or recusals do not qualify, but death may resolve contracts at the last fair price, and the market closes by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EDT if the event has not occurred.
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is the nature of Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard's relationship?
| Initial Impression | Trump reportedly impressed and praised Gabbard's work on alleged election fraud [1] |
|---|---|
| Policy Divergence | Trump publicly disagreed with Gabbard on the Iran nuclear issue and dismissed intel briefings [2] |
| Job Security Intervention | Roger Stone persuaded Trump not to fire Tulsi Gabbard despite tensions [3] |
Sources (6)
- 1Trump: Tulsi Gabbard ‘Working’ On Alleged Election Fraudmediaite.com
- 2Trump Reveals How Intelligence Chief Gabbard Differs From Him on Iran Nuclear Issuetime.com
- 3How Roger Stone persuaded Trump not to fire Tulsi Gabbardaxios.com
- 4Tulsi Gabbard put Trump on the phone with FBI agents who searched Fulton County elections office, sources say | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 5Trump polled advisers about replacing Tulsi Gabbard as intelligence chief | US politics | The Guardianguardian.co.uk
- 6Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan's New Trump Book Drops Junemediaite.com
6. What Changes Has Tulsi Gabbard Implemented as DNI?
| ODNI Staff Reduction | Approximately 40% [1] |
|---|---|
| Top Officials Fired | Two at US National Intelligence Council [2] |
| Internal Dissent | Anonymous leaks, CIA objections to declassification [3] |
Sources (8)
- 1Gabbard cutting Director of National Intelligence staff by roughly 40%cbsnews.com
- 2Tulsi Gabbard fires 2 top officials at US National Intelligence Council | AP Newsuat.apnews.com
- 3Tulsi Gabbard declassified documents over CIA objections, sources saynbcnews.com
- 4Tulsi Gabbard confirmed and sworn in as director of national intelligence - CBS Newscbsnews.com
- 5Days after Joe Kent resigned, US Intel Chief Tulsi Gabbard informed senators that the Iranian regime has been largely degraded but still remains capable of attacking US and its allies interest in the Middle East https://reut.rs/4lEV564 | Reuters | Facebookfacebook.com
- 6United States • Departure of Tulsi Gabbard ally deals further blow to strategic analysis at ODNI - 28/01/2026 - Intelligence Onlineintelligenceonline.com
- 7Tulsi Gabbard DNI Firing Rumors Expose a Crisis of Intelligence Integrity in Washington - The Town Hall Newsthetownhall.news
- 8Opinion | Trump cabinet member Tulsi Gabbard proves DNI shouldn’t exist - The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
7. Is Tulsi Gabbard Preparing for a 2028 Presidential Run?
| PAC Connections | Connected to "For Love of Country" and "Defend Freedom" PACs with financial activity [1] |
|---|---|
| Past Campaign Committees | "TEAM TULSI" [2] and "OUR FREEDOM, OUR FUTURE" [3] listed with FEC |
| 2028 Presidential Run | Has not ruled out a 2028 presidential bid [4] |
Sources (7)
- 1Tulsi Gabbard Keeps Starting Up PACs. Where Is the Money Going? – Mother Jonespractice.motherjones.com
- 2TEAM TULSI - committee overview | FECfec.gov
- 3OUR FREEDOM, OUR FUTURE - committee overview | FECfec.gov
- 4Gabbard Doesn't Rule out Running for President in 2028 | Newsmax.comnewsmax.com
- 5DNI Gabbard Opening Statement as Delivered to SSCI on 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community | Office of the Director of National Intelligencedni.gov
- 6Tulsi Gabbard Grilled During Senate Intelligence Hearing on Iran | Military.commilitary.com
- 7Tulsi Gabbard On The Biggest Threats To Americayoutube.com
8. How Has Tulsi Gabbard's Relationship With Intelligence Committees Evolved?
| SSCI Initial Support | Nomination advanced, Chairman Tom Cotton expressed confidence [1] |
|---|---|
| SSCI Vice Chairman Criticism | Mark Warner accused Gabbard of 'abuse and politicization' [2] and planning 'slash intelligence staff' [3] |
| HPSCI Oversight Stance | Chairman Crawford emphasized 'rigorous oversight' but no specific public criticisms [4] |
Sources (7)
- 1Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Cotton’s Opening Remarks at the Confirmation Hearing Tulsi Gabbard for ODNIcotton.senate.gov
- 2Statement of Senate Intel Vice Chairman On Director Gabbard’s Abuse and Politicization of the Security Clearance Process - Press Releases - Mark R. Warnerwarner.senate.gov
- 3Statement of Senate Intel Vice Chair on Director Gabbard’s Plan to Slash Intelligence Staff - Press Releases - Mark R. Warnerwarner.senate.gov
- 4Crawford Statement on ODNI and I&S Budget Hearing - House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligenceintelligence.house.gov
- 5DNI Gabbard Opening Statement as Delivered to the HPSCI on the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Communitydni.gov
- 6Sen. Mark Warner to call out Tulsi Gabbard in floor speech for ‘going to war’ with intelligence community | CNN Politicsus.cnn.com
- 7DNI Tulsi Gabbard Faces Scrutiny in Congress Over Iran Nuclear Threat Intelligenceforeignpolicy.com
9. What Caused Trump's Conflict with Tulsi Gabbard Over Iran?
| Iran Strike Event | March 2026 amid nuclear talks [1] |
|---|---|
| Gabbard's Stance | Avoided answering whether Iran posed an 'imminent threat' [2] |
| Trump's Action | Sought DNI Tulsi Gabbard's resignation by April 2, 2026 [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1What led up to Trump's decision to strike Iran | AP Newsapnews.com
- 2Gabbard avoids answering whether Iran posed an 'imminent threat' - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 3Donald Trump Reportedly Wants Director of National Intelligence to Resignyahoo.com
- 4Trump Reveals How Intelligence Chief Gabbard Differs From Him on Iran Nuclear Issuetime.com
- 5Trump polled advisers about replacing Tulsi Gabbard as intelligence chief | US politics | The Guardianguardian.co.uk