Will the nickel be discontinued?
Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the nickel to be discontinued before January 1, 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market, which asks if the U.S. nickel will be discontinued before January 1, 2027, has exhibited a stable, sideways trading pattern within an extremely narrow range. The probability has remained between 4.5% and 6.0% for the duration of its trading history. The market opened at a 6.0% chance for "YES" and has since drifted slightly lower to its current price of 4.7%. The most notable movement was a drop from the 6.0% level down toward the current price. However, with no specific news or developments provided in the context, this minor shift cannot be attributed to any external event and likely reflects internal market dynamics among a small number of participants.
The trading volume for this market is exceptionally low, with only 224 contracts traded in total across 54 data points. This indicates very little market participation and low conviction from traders. The price action has established a clear, albeit tight, channel with resistance at the 6.0% high and support near the 4.5% low. Overall, the market sentiment is consistently pessimistic about the chances of the nickel being discontinued by the resolution date. The persistently low probability suggests that traders believe there is a roughly 95% chance that the event will not happen, and the lack of volume or significant price movement indicates this opinion is stable and unchallenged.
- US Mint consistently incurs financial losses producing nickels above face value.
- Two bills introduced in Congress propose ending current 5-cent coin production.
- Vending and coin groups actively lobby against coinage reform proposals.
- The U.S. Mint has not formally recommended changing current coin compositions.
- President's Budget Proposal lacks projected savings from discontinuing the nickel.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.7% | 5.4% | Political pressure for cost efficiency may drive legislation to phase out the nickel. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the U.S. Mint or Department of the Treasury announces the suspension or cessation of the five-cent coin's production for circulation before January 1, 2027. If this event does not occur by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 pm EST, the market resolves to "No." The market can close early if the "Yes" event happens, with outcomes verified by the US Mint and Department of the Treasury.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.06 | $0.97 | 5% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion features one main viewpoint suggesting the nickel will eventually be discontinued, primarily due to the U.S. government's production cost exceeding its face value. While this argument supports a "Yes" outcome in the long term, the trader expresses uncertainty about the discontinuation occurring before the market's deadline of January 1, 2027. There are no explicit arguments for "No" presented, and no clear consensus emerges from the limited activity.
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score4Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score67Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What is the US Mint's production cost for a nickel?
| Production Cost (2014) | 8.09 cents [1] |
|---|---|
| Production Cost (2020) | 7.42 cents [1, p [2]. 19] [3] |
| Production Cost (2022) | 10.41 cents [3] |
The U.S. Mint consistently incurs financial losses producing nickels. Manufacturing costs for the nickel have steadily exceeded its face value for several years, presenting an ongoing financial challenge. For instance, the production cost increased from 8.09 cents in fiscal year 2014 [1] to 7.42 cents in 2020 [1, p. 19], ultimately reaching 10.41 cents in 2022 [3]. These rising expenses have prompted reports from entities like the Government Accountability Office (GAO) concerning the implications of changing coin compositions [1].
No historical data links nickel production costs to legislative co-sponsorships. Despite documented increases in production expenses, research does not provide specific cost thresholds that have historically triggered significant legislative co-sponsorships for proposals to eliminate the nickel. However, current legislative discussions, such as H.R. 1270, propose a ten-year suspension of both penny and nickel production due to these persistent cost concerns [4]. This indicates that while historical data on political action tied to specific cost thresholds is missing, the issue of uneconomical coin production is actively being addressed in present legislative efforts.
Sources (4)
- 1GAO-16-177; U.S. Coins: Implications of Changing Metal Compositionsgao.gov
- 2https://www.usmint.gov/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2020-mint-biennial-report.pdfusmint.gov
- 32022 Biennial Report to Congress as Required by the Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010 (Public Law 111-302)usmint.gov
- 4Bills 119hr1270ih.htmcongress.gov
6. Have Bills to Stop 5-Cent Coin Production Been Assigned to Subcommittee?
| H.R. 1270 Introduced | February 9, 2025, to suspend penny and nickel production [1], [2], [3], [4], [5] |
|---|---|
| H.R. 4459 Introduced | July 7, 2025, to suspend 5-cent coin production [6], [7] |
| Current Committee Status | Referred to House Financial Services Committee, not assigned to subcommittee [1], [6], [2], [3], [4], [7], [5] |
Two bills seeking to cease 5-cent coin production were introduced for the upcoming 119th Congress. Both H.R. 1270 and H.R. 4459 were introduced in the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress (2025-2027) with the objective of discontinuing the minting of 5-cent coins. H.R. 1270, introduced on February 9, 2025, specifically proposes to suspend the production of both pennies and nickels [1], [2], [3], [4], [5]. The second bill, H.R. 4459, also known as the "Modernize and Improve our National Tender Act of 2025," was introduced on July 7, 2025, and aims to suspend the production of the 5-cent coin [6], [7].
Neither bill has advanced to subcommittee review within the specified committees. Following their introduction, both H.R. 1270 and H.R. 4459 were referred to the House Committee on Financial Services [1], [6], [2], [3], [7], [5]. However, current research does not indicate that either bill has been subsequently assigned to a specific subcommittee within the House Financial Services Committee or the Senate Banking Committee [1], [6], [2], [3], [4], [7], [5].
Sources (7)
- 1Bills 119hr1270ih.htmcongress.gov
- 2US HR1270 | BillTrack50billtrack50.com
- 3Bill Searchfastdemocracy.com
- 4Text of H.R. 1270: To suspend the production of the penny and nickel, to require the Comptroller General … (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 5H.R. 1270: To suspend the production of the penny and nickel, to require the Comptroller General of the United States to carry out a study on pennies and nickels, and for other purposes.quiverquant.com
- 6US HR4459 | BillTrack50billtrack50.com
- 7H.R. 4459: Modernize and Improve our National Tender Act of 2025 (119th Congress) Bill Summary | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
7. Which US Industry Groups Lobby on Coinage Reform and Availability?
| NAMA Q1 2024 Lobbying | $120,000 (Source: National Automatic Merchandising Association [1]) |
|---|---|
| Coin Coalition Q1 2024 Lobbying | $120,000 (Source: Coin Coalition [2]) |
| Copper Dev. Assoc. Q4 2023 Lobbying | $30,000 (Source: Copper Development Association [3]) |
Vending and coin groups actively lobby against coinage reform proposals. The National Automatic Merchandising Association (NAMA) reported $120,000 in federal lobbying expenditures for the first quarter of 2024, with its issues including 'Payment systems and coin availability' [1]. NAMA’s lobbying efforts indicate an interest in the continued circulation of coins, alongside its monitoring of modern payment systems [4]. During the same period, the Coin Coalition reported $120,000 in federal lobbying expenditures [2]. This group explicitly opposed proposals to eliminate the penny and nickel, and also addressed other proposals affecting the U.S. Mint [2].
Key metal industry groups do not explicitly oppose coinage reform. The Copper Development Association reported federal lobbying expenditures of $30,000 for the fourth quarter of 2023 [3]. Their lobbying activities covered infrastructure, environmental regulations, mineral processing, trade, and energy, but did not specifically mention opposing coinage reform or legislation concerning coin denominations [3]. Similarly, the Nickel Institute, another related industry group, did not provide specific US federal lobbying expenditures related to coinage reform within the available sources [5].
8. Has the U.S. Mint Recommended a Steel Nickel Switch?
| Mint's Recommendation | No changes to circulating coinage composition recommended [1] |
|---|---|
| FY 2022 Nickel Production Cost | 10.41 cents [2] |
| Research Mandate | Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010 [3] |
The U.S. Mint has not formally recommended changing current coin compositions [1]. This position, explicitly stated in the 2020 and 2022 Biennial Reports to Congress, affirmed that 'The Mint is not recommending any changes to the composition of circulating coinage at this time' [1]. While recognizing the nickel's production cost of 10.41 cents in Fiscal Year 2022 exceeds its face value, the Mint has underscored that any composition change would necessitate Congressional action and could be disruptive to U.S. commerce [1].
The U.S. Mint actively researches cheaper steel-based alternative alloys [3]. Despite not making a formal recommendation to switch, the Mint conducts ongoing research into various lower-cost alternative alloys, including steel-based options specifically for the nickel [3]. This research is a mandate of the Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010 and supports the continuous evaluation of potential alternatives to current coin compositions [3]. The Mint's focus remains on extensive testing to ensure any new alloy would successfully meet all necessary requirements for vending, circulation, and public acceptance before any consideration of a formal recommendation [3].
Sources (3)
- 1https://www.usmint.gov/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2020-mint-biennial-report.pdfusmint.gov
- 22022 Biennial Report to Congress as Required by the Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010 (Public Law 111-302)usmint.gov
- 3https://www.usmint.gov/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/2014-rd-biennial-report-appendix-4.pdfusmint.gov
9. Does President's Budget Proposal Include Discontinuing the Nickel?
| Nickel Production Cost (FY 2024) | Over 10 cents per coin (U.S [1]. Mint Congressional Justifications [1, p [2]. 19]) [3] |
|---|---|
| Nickel Production Cost (2023) | 11.52 cents per coin (Public discussion [4]) |
| Discontinuation in President's Budget | Not proposed; no fiscal savings estimated (President's Budget Proposal [1]) |
The President's Budget Proposal lacks projected savings from discontinuing the nickel. Specifically, the Department of the Treasury's analytical perspectives do not include any line item or footnote estimating fiscal savings from discontinuing the nickel [1]. While official documents acknowledge that the nickel costs more to produce than its face value, resulting in losses, the budget proposal does not outline discontinuing the coin as an administration policy.
Nickel production consistently exceeds face value, leading to net losses. The U.S. Mint's Congressional Justifications for Fiscal Years 2025 and 2026 confirm that the cost to produce a nickel surpasses its face value. For instance, in FY 2024, the nickel cost over 10 cents to produce, contributing to a net loss for circulating coins [1, p. 19]. Similar reports indicate the nickel cost 11.52 cents to produce in 2023 [4]. Despite these financial inefficiencies, the budget documents primarily focus on strategies such as exploring alternative, less expensive materials and managing current production costs, rather than outlining a policy for discontinuing the nickel [1, p. 19; 5, p. 19; 6, p. 28].
Congressional proposals for discontinuing coins differ from current administration policy. Although legislative proposals, such as H.R. 7858, have been introduced to suspend the production of pennies and nickels, these are congressional initiatives and are not part of the President's Budget Proposal as an official administration policy [4]. The absence of an estimated fiscal saving within the budget confirms that discontinuing the nickel is not a current administration policy, even though the Treasury Department has historically considered similar actions for other denominations, like the penny, due to cost-to-value imbalances [3].
