Short Answer

Both the model and the market agree that at least 3 endorsements are expected this week. This outcome is confirmed by 6 endorsements as of August 18, 2026.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price trended sharply upward, moving from a 5.0% YES probability on August 16 to 99.0% by August 18. The price action was dominated by two large, consecutive spikes driven by new information. On August 16, the price jumped 35.0 percentage points to 40.0% as Donald Trump began issuing endorsements on Truth Social. The next day, August 17, the price spiked another 54.0 points to 94.0%. This second move was a reaction to the public documentation of his social media activity, which confirmed at least six individual endorsements had been made by August 18.

Total volume of 6,676 contracts suggests active trading, though the sample data indicates that this activity was likely concentrated around the release of new endorsements rather than spread evenly over time. The market established a clear floor at 5.0% and moved through inflection points at 40.0% and 94.0% before settling at a ceiling of 99.0%, which indicates a near-certain resolution. The chart reflects a market sentiment that shifted from uncertainty to conviction in under 48 hours. Price discovery was efficient and directly correlated with the public release of endorsement data on Truth Social.

Since last update (~3h): The model's "At least 10" probability dropped 16.0pp to 79.0%, widening the model-market edge.
Model confidence increased by 1.0pp to 9.0, despite the significant probability shift.
Conversely, the model's "At least 50" probability rose 3.6pp, compressing the model-market edge.
At least 3 and 5 endorsements are confirmed by six endorsements as of August 18, 2026.
Outcomes for 10 or more endorsements appear overpriced given six confirmed by August 18.

Current Context

Six political endorsements have been documented this week. Between August 15 and August 18, 2026, Donald Trump issued six documented political endorsements on Truth Social. These included J.J. Grow ^[1], Kim Kendall ^[2], Jon Albert ^[3], Jennifer Balkcom ^[4], Sydney Gruters ^[4], and Jon Maples ^[4]. Specifically, on August 18, 2026, Trump endorsed Jennifer Balkcom, Jon Maples, and Sydney Gruters ^[4].

No specific endorsement schedule or forecast exists for the period. Prediction markets, such as those on Parity, reflect interest in Trump's endorsement volume, with some markets tracking whether he would endorse at least 50 individuals on Truth Social in a single week during the 2026 election cycle ^[5]^[6]. However, there is no established schedule or predictive data available for Donald Trump's specific endorsement activity on Truth Social for the week of August 15–21, 2026 ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]. Political analysts from The Cook Political Report monitor 2026 primary races and Trump's influence, but they do not provide specific numerical forecasts for his social media endorsement volume as of August 18, 2026 ^[13]^[14].

Sources (14)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: At least 50

📉 August 17, 2026: 84.0pp drop

Price decreased from 95.0% to 11.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price drop was the ongoing social media activity from Donald Trump on Truth Social, which revealed the actual number of endorsements to be far below the "At least 50" threshold. On August 17, 2026, news outlets like USA Today and News-Press published summaries of Trump's endorsements for the Florida primary, explicitly naming candidates such as Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody ^[1]^[2]. These reports, reflecting Trump's posts throughout the week ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7], made it evident that the total unique endorsements were significantly fewer than 50 ^[1]^[2]^[8]. This real-time information, derived directly from Trump's social media, appeared to coincide with and directly cause the sharp market adjustment. Social media was therefore the primary driver.

Outcome: At least 10

📈 August 16, 2026: 35.0pp spike

Price increased from 5.0% to 40.0%

What happened: The 35.0 percentage point spike on August 16, 2026, was not primarily driven by confirmed social media activity reaching the "At least 10" endorsement threshold. While Donald Trump issued at least six individual candidate endorsements on Truth Social for the week of August 15-21, 2026, by August 18, 2026 ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12], available digital archives do not support a specific surge of ten or more endorsements during that week ^[13]^[14]^[15]^[16]^[17]. This suggests the market movement was likely driven by speculative trading or anticipation of increased activity, rather than a direct response to actual high-volume posting by Trump. Therefore, social media, in terms of confirmed posts meeting the outcome's criteria, was largely irrelevant as a primary driver.

Sources (17)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves YES if Donald Trump endorses 50 or more people on Truth Social between August 15 and August 21. It resolves NO if he endorses fewer than 50 people on Truth Social within that same weekly period. The endorsements must be made on the Truth Social platform during the specified dates for them to be counted.

Market Discussion

Donald Trump endorsed at least five individuals on Truth Social between August 15 and August 18, 2026, which included Senator Dan Sullivan (an August 14 endorsement relevant to the period) and Florida State Representatives Kim Kendall, J.J. Grow, Bill Conerly, and Jon Albert (all endorsed on August 15) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. Prediction market participants and political analysts are closely monitoring these endorsements to gauge Trump's ongoing influence in the 2026 midterm election cycle, despite the lack of real-time, expert-verified counts from automated tools for this specific timeframe ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[14]^[15]^[16]^[17]^[18].

Sources (18)

5. Trader Dashboard

Trust profile

Event quality26

Poor

6. What is the definitive, verifiable count of Donald Trump's Truth Social endorsements for the week of August 15-21, 2026?

Total Endorsements (Aug 15-18, 2026)	6 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]
Endorsements on August 15, 2026	3 ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Endorsements on August 18, 2026	3 ^[4]^[5]

A definitive count for the full week is unavailable. Between August 15 and August 18, 2026, Donald Trump issued six distinct endorsements on Truth Social ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. However, information for August 19, 20, and 21, 2026, was not included in the provided research, making a definitive count for the entire week of August 15-21, 2026, impossible to determine.

Three endorsements were made on August 15, 2026. On Monday, August 15, 2026, Donald Trump issued three endorsements for individuals described as State Representatives. These supported J.J. Grow ^[1], Kim Kendall ^[2], and Jon Albert ^[3].

Three additional endorsements occurred on August 18, 2026. Three further endorsements were issued by Donald Trump on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. These included support for Jennifer Balkcom, Jon Maples, and Sydney Gruters ^[4]^[5].

Sources (5)

7. Which states or specific types of races are the primary focus of Donald Trump's endorsements during the August 2026 primary season?

Focus of Endorsements	83% for U.S. House races ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Endorsements for Incumbents	94% of primary endorsements (as of Dec 2025) ^[3]
Endorsements (Aug 15-18, 2026)	At least 6 candidates ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]

Donald Trump's endorsement strategy for 2026 heavily emphasizes U.S. House races. His primary endorsements for the August 2026 primary season and the broader 2026 election cycle have largely concentrated on U.S. House races, which comprise 83% of his total primary endorsements ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This approach also involves backing "America First" candidates and protecting Republican incumbents across both federal (House and Senate) and state-level (gubernatorial and state legislature) contests ^[8]^[9]^[10]. As of December 2025, a significant majority, 94%, of his primary endorsements were specifically for incumbent Republican officeholders ^[3].

August 2026 saw specific endorsements, with a notable focus on Florida. During the period between August 15 and August 18, 2026, Donald Trump publicly endorsed at least six candidates through Truth Social ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]. These specific endorsements included several incumbent Florida State House candidates: Jon Albert, Kim Kendall, J.J. Grow, and Bill Conerly, all endorsed on August 15, and Sydney Gruters, endorsed on August 18. Additionally, U.S. House candidates Catalina Lauf and Jennifer Balkcom also received endorsements within this timeframe ^[4]^[7]. While these state-level endorsements in Florida were clearly documented, the available research did not provide specific details regarding other states that were a primary focus for his endorsements during the August 2026 primary season ^[8]^[11].

Sources (11)

8. How does Donald Trump's endorsement frequency in mid-August 2026 compare to his activity during the 2024 and 2022 primary seasons?

Total primary endorsements (2026 cycle as of July 2026)	307 primary candidates ^[1]^[2]
Average endorsement timing	Seven months before primaries ^[3]
Prediction market threshold for Truth Social endorsements (Aug 15-21, 2026)	50 endorsements ^[4]^[5]

Donald Trump maintained high endorsement activity in mid-August 2026. He was notably active on Truth Social, issuing numerous endorsements for state and congressional candidates, with a particular focus on Florida and New York ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. However, specific, verified data or expert projections for the exact number of endorsements Trump issued on Truth Social during the week of August 15-21, 2026, are not available in the provided sources ^[10]. Prediction markets for this specific week set a threshold of 50 endorsements on Truth Social, though market sentiment indicated a low probability of reaching such a high volume in a single week ^[4]^[5].

Trump's 2026 endorsement frequency surpasses previous election cycles. For the 2026 election cycle, Donald Trump shifted towards significantly earlier endorsement timing, averaging seven months before primaries ^[3]. As of July 2026, Trump had endorsed 307 primary candidates ^[1]^[2]. This total represents a higher figure than in any previous election cycle since 2018, exceeding the 306 primary endorsements in the 2024 cycle and the 276 in the 2022 cycle ^[1]^[11].

Sources (11)

9. What are the most reliable real-time data sources for tracking Donald Trump's endorsements on Truth Social?

Primary Tracking Tools	SuperTrumpTracker, TrumpSignalTracker, TrumpSocialTrends ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Keywords for Endorsements	'Complete and Total Endorsement', 'Great Honor to endorse' ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Prediction Market Resolution Period	August 15 to August 21, 2026 ^[4]^[5]

Specialized tools reliably track Donald Trump's Truth Social endorsements in real time. These platforms, including SuperTrumpTracker, TrumpSignalTracker, and TrumpSocialTrends, continuously monitor and compile activities on Truth Social ^[1]^[2]^[3]. They are designed to identify endorsements by recognizing specific phrases, such as 'Complete and Total Endorsement' or 'Great Honor to endorse' ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Prediction markets also offer insights into anticipated endorsement activity. For instance, a prediction market titled "How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/15-8/21)" is available on platforms like Kalshi and Coinbase Predictions ^[4]^[5]. This market's resolution is determined by the exact number of endorsements Donald Trump makes on Truth Social during the specified period of August 15 to August 21, 2026 ^[4]^[5].

Sources (5)

10. Which upcoming primary elections in late August 2026 could trigger a wave of last-minute endorsements from Donald Trump?

Alaska, Florida, Wyoming Primary Date	August 18, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Oklahoma Primary Runoff Date	August 25, 2026 ^[5]^[6]
Trump Endorsement Activity Period	Week of August 15-21, 2026 ^[7]

Several late August 2026 primary elections could trigger last-minute endorsements. Primary elections were scheduled for August 18, 2026, in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming, all falling within the week of August 15-21, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. These specific dates were identified as potential catalysts for last-minute endorsements from Donald Trump ^[5]^[6]. Additionally, the Oklahoma statewide primary runoff, set for August 25, 2026, also occurred in late August and could similarly have prompted such endorsements ^[5]^[6].

Donald Trump issued multiple endorsements coinciding with key primary dates. During the week of August 15-21, 2026, Donald Trump posted several endorsements on Truth Social ^[7]. For instance, on August 18, he endorsed Jennifer Balkcom for North Carolina's 11th District ^[8] and Jon Maples for Florida's 87th State House District ^[9]. An earlier endorsement for Catalina Lauf in Florida's 19th District was made on August 13 ^[10]. These endorsements for candidates in Florida and North Carolina directly aligned with Florida's primary elections held on August 18, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[4].

Sources (10)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Catalysts to Watch

The frequency of endorsements by Donald Trump on Truth Social represents a key market catalyst. Between August 15 and August 18, 2026, Trump explicitly endorsed State Representatives J.J. Grow, Kim Kendall, and Jon Albert via the platform ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Prediction markets, such as those on Parity, track the volume of these endorsements, with specific markets posing questions on whether Trump would reach thresholds like 50 endorsements in a single week ^[4]. Public data repositories currently provide historical archives and sentiment analysis of Trump's Truth Social activity, but do not offer predictive forecasting for endorsement frequency ^[5]^[6]^[7].

A separate catalyst involves the potential for expedited information flow. A technology group reportedly plans to sell faster access to Trump's posts on Truth Social ^[8]. Such an offering could alter market reaction times to his statements and endorsements.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Strike Date: August 22, 2026
Expiration: August 22, 2026
Closes: August 22, 2026

Sources (8)

12. Keep Exploring

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map. More Recurring markets See more recurring setups in the same theme. Browse all Politics markets Keep exploring adjacent politics markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

Recent resolutions:

KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26AUG14-A50: YES (Aug 15, 2026)
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26AUG14-A5: YES (Aug 15, 2026)
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26AUG14-A3: YES (Aug 15, 2026)
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26AUG14-A25: YES (Aug 15, 2026)
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26AUG14-A20: YES (Aug 15, 2026)

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/15-8/21)

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: At least 50

📉 August 17, 2026: 84.0pp drop

Outcome: At least 10

📈 August 16, 2026: 35.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

5. Trader Dashboard

6. What is the definitive, verifiable count of Donald Trump's Truth Social endorsements for the week of August 15-21, 2026?

7. Which states or specific types of races are the primary focus of Donald Trump's endorsements during the August 2026 primary season?

8. How does Donald Trump's endorsement frequency in mid-August 2026 compare to his activity during the 2024 and 2022 primary seasons?

9. What are the most reliable real-time data sources for tracking Donald Trump's endorsements on Truth Social?

10. Which upcoming primary elections in late August 2026 could trigger a wave of last-minute endorsements from Donald Trump?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Catalysts to Watch

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

Trump's Endorsement Pace Recalibrates Market, Slashing Odds on High Totals

14. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: At least 50

📉 August 17, 2026: 84.0pp drop

Outcome: At least 10

📈 August 16, 2026: 35.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

Catalysts to Watch

Key Dates & Catalysts

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