Short Answer

President Trump signed three presidential actions this week, including a notice on September 2, 2026, and two executive orders on September 4, 2026. The market prices at least one such action at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market for at least five presidential actions collapsed on September 4 after President Trump signed two executive orders. This activity was insufficient to put the contract on a path to resolve affirmatively with only one day left in the period. Traders reassessed the probability of three more actions occurring on the final day, driving the price down 61 percentage points from 66% to 5%.
An earlier price spike on August 31, which lifted the market from 76% to 87%, does not coincide with any identified news reports or official announcements. The market maintained a high probability of significant executive action through the early part of the week before the September 4 drop. According to Federal Register records, no formal executive orders, proclamations, or memoranda were ultimately listed for the resolution period.
  • President Trump signed three presidential actions, confirmed by multiple credible records.
  • This total includes a notice and two executive orders signed September 4, 2026.
  • Consequently, outcomes of four or more actions for the week are highly unlikely.

Current Context

Public Federal Register records do not list new formal executive orders, proclamations, or memoranda by President Donald Trump for the period between August 30 and September 5, 2026, as of the latest data [1][2]. Specific presidential actions were recorded leading into this week [1].
President Trump has enacted hundreds of formal actions in his second term. As of September 3, 2026, he had signed 277 executive orders, 87 memoranda, and 174 proclamations during his second term, which began January 20, 2025 [2]. There is no public data as of September 5, 2026, predicting or confirming a specific number of presidential actions taken by Trump for the August 30 to September 5, 2026, week [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 12026 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders - Federal Registerfederalregister.gov
  2. 2Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3H. RES. 1486congress.gov
  4. 4H.Res.939 - Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the...congress.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: At least 3

📉 September 04, 2026: 65.0pp drop

Price decreased from 73.0% to 8.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 65.0 percentage point drop on September 4, 2026, was the traditional news and official announcements regarding President Donald Trump's presidential actions [1][2][3][4][5]. On that date, Trump signed two executive orders concerning ranchers, beef processing, and wolf protection [1][2]. This news, confirming only two actions by the end of the market week's final weekday, likely caused the market's perceived probability of reaching "At least 3" total actions to decrease sharply [1][2][6]. Based on the provided sources, social media activity could not be assessed as a driver for this movement.

📉 September 03, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 85.0% to 70.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point drop in the "At least 3" outcome on September 03, 2026, appears to be the observed count of presidential actions by that date. As of September 03, only one official action within the market's specified week (August 30–September 5, 2026) had been publicly documented: the September 1 notification to Congress [7]. With only two days remaining in the week and only one action recorded, the market likely adjusted, reducing the perceived probability of President Trump taking at least three actions. There is no evidence from the provided sources of social media activity or specific news announcements driving this particular market movement.

Outcome: At least 5

📉 September 01, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 69.0% to 60.0%

What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop for the "At least 5" outcome on September 01, 2026, was primarily driven by a reassessment of the number of presidential actions taken by President Trump. By September 1, only four actions had been officially noted for the week of August 30-September 5 [8]. This relatively low observed count likely led traders to decrease confidence that a fifth action would occur before September 5. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no relevant posts appeared to coincide with or lead the market movement on that date [9].

📈 August 31, 2026: 19.0pp spike

Price increased from 54.0% to 73.0%

What happened: No identifiable social media activity or traditional news reports correlating with the market spike for "At least 5" presidential actions by Donald Trump during the week of August 30 - September 5, 2026, were found around August 31, 2026. Official records indicate President Trump signed no new presidential actions in that specific week, with only one notification to Congress regarding a national emergency recorded as an official action [10][11][7]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, as the price movement appears unsupported by verifiable information and may stem from market structure factors or misinterpretation.

Outcome: At least 2

📈 August 30, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 84.0% to 93.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike on August 30, 2026, was likely the imminent official announcements of multiple presidential actions. Proclamations and executive orders regarding the national emergency to secure the United States bulk-power system and further ensuring affordable beef for the American consumer were published in the Federal Register on August 31, 2026 [8]. News or anticipation of these two distinct actions, directly supporting the "At least 2" outcome, likely spread on August 30, coinciding with the market movement. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Sources (11)
  1. 1President Trump Signs Two Rancher Orders Covering Wolf Rules, Beef Labels and Meat Competition | WLT Reportwltreport.com
  2. 2President Trump Signs Executive Orders, Sep. 4, 2026whitehouse.gov
  3. 3Trump order directs officials to consider stripping protections for gray wolves | Trump administration | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  4. 4Trump allows ranchers to process their own beef and sell across state lineswashingtonexaminer.com
  5. 5Trump executive order aims to ease meat processing rules for ranchersktiv.com
  6. 6ENERGY SUBCOMMITTEEcongress.gov
  7. 7https://www.congress.gov/119/crec/2026/09/01/172/138/modified/CREC-2026-09-01-pt1-PgH5423-5.htmcongress.gov
  8. 8Federal Register:: Declaring a National Emergency To Secure the United States Bulk-Power Systemfederalregister.gov
  9. 9Trump threatens trade with dozens of countries if Fed doesn't lower rates post-jobs reportnypost.com
  10. 10Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Congressional Record | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this Kalshi prediction market, a 'YES' resolution occurs if Donald Trump takes at least 3 presidential actions, while a 'NO' resolution occurs if he takes fewer than 3 actions. The actions must occur between August 30th and September 5th. No other special settlement conditions are specified in the provided content.

Market Discussion

During the week of August 30–September 5, 2026, President Donald Trump took several actions. He signed an executive order promoting fair competition in livestock markets on September 4, 2026 [1][2] and announced the deployment of special envoys to Moscow and Kyiv on September 5, 2026, with a new peace proposal [3][4]. Other actions included notifying Congress on September 1, 2026, of an extended national emergency and implementing a U.S.-Japan framework agreement on September 4, 2026, which was followed by an amendment to product exemptions on September 5, 2026 [5][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1President Trump Signs Executive Orders, Sep. 4, 2026whitehouse.gov
  2. 2Promoting Fair Competition In Livestock Markets And Expanding Market Access for American Meat Producers – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3Trump sends envoys Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv with new plan to 'end the war' - France 24france24.com
  4. 4Trump sends envoys to Moscow, Kyiv with new plan to 'end war' | AFP.comafp.com
  5. 5https://www.congress.gov/119/crec/2026/09/01/172/138/modified/CREC-2026-09-01-pt1-PgH5423-5.htmcongress.gov
  6. 6[PDF] Presidential 2025 Tariff Actions: Timeline and Status - Congress.govcongress.gov

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Sep 5, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality5
Poor
Liquidity
5

11 contracts · worst first

At least 84
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 35
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 173% vs realized 25%
At least 45
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 230% vs realized 30%
At least 59
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 719
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 931
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 1036
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 652
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 179
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 280
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 15—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

11 contracts · worst first

At least 370
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

At least 1074
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

At least 675
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

At least 775
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

At least 875
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

At least 576
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

At least 477
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

At least 977
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

At least 182
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

At least 2—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

At least 15—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

11 contracts · worst first

At least 1100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 2100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 3100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 4100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 5100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 6100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 7100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 8100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 9100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 10100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 15100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 5, 2026

6. How might the impeachment resolution (H. Res. 1486) introduced on August 24, 2026, influence President Trump's executive agenda for the week of August 30 - September 5?

Impeachment Resolution Introduction DateAugust 24, 2026 [1][2][3]
Presidential Activity PeriodAugust 30 - September 5, 2026 [4][5]
Executive Actions TakenMultiple executive orders and proclamations [4][5][6][7]
The recent impeachment resolution did not hinder President Trump's executive agenda. On August 24, 2026, Representative Al Green introduced H. Res. 1486, an impeachment resolution against President Donald John Trump, which was subsequently referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary [1][2][3]. Despite this legislative development, the resolution did not disrupt the President's administrative functions or his pursuit of his executive agenda during the week of August 30 to September 5, 2026 [4][5].
President Trump signed multiple presidential actions across key policy areas. During this period, he continued to issue various presidential actions, demonstrating active engagement in his executive agenda [4][5]. On August 31, President Trump issued a proclamation regarding affordable beef [6] and an executive order concerning a national emergency for the bulk-power system [7]. Furthermore, on September 4, he signed two additional executive orders addressing rancher support, wolf regulations, and competition within the meat market [4][5]. These documented actions confirm his continued focus on agricultural, energy, and regulatory policy, notwithstanding the pending impeachment resolution [4][5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1H.Res.1486 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  2. 2H.Res.1486 - Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the...congress.gov
  3. 3Rep. Al Green Files Articles of Impeachment Against President...algreen.house.gov
  4. 4President Trump Signs Executive Order on Beef | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
  5. 5President Trump Signs Two Rancher Orders Covering Wolf Rules, Beef Labels and Meat Competition | WLT Reportwltreport.com
  6. 6Federal Register:: Further Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumerfederalregister.gov
  7. 7Federal Register:: Declaring a National Emergency To Secure the United States Bulk-Power Systemfederalregister.gov

7. What do the Federal Register and White House briefing room records from August 30 to September 5, 2026, show regarding new presidential actions signed by Donald Trump?

Number of new presidential actions1 [1]
Date of actionSeptember 2, 2026 [1]
Type of actionNotice of continuation of national emergency [1]
President Donald Trump issued one new presidential action for the specified period. During the week of August 30 to September 5, 2026, President Trump signed a notice on September 2, 2026. This action continued for one year the national emergency originally declared in Executive Order 13848, which addresses the threat of foreign interference in or undermining public confidence in U.S. elections. This notice was subsequently published in the Federal Register on September 2, 2026 [1].
No other new presidential actions met the specified criteria for the week. The Federal Register and White House briefing room records for August 30 to September 5, 2026, did not identify any other new presidential actions signed by Donald Trump that met the criteria for inclusion in the action count. Proclamations and executive orders that were published in the Federal Register during this week on August 31, 2026, had been signed by President Trump on August 26, 2026, and therefore did not qualify as new actions for the requested reporting period [2][3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Federal Register:: Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to Foreign Interference in or Undermining Public Confidence in United States Electionsfederalregister.gov
  2. 2Federal Register:: Declaring a National Emergency To Secure the United States Bulk-Power Systemfederalregister.gov
  3. 3Federal Register:: Further Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumerfederalregister.gov
  4. 42026 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders - Federal Registerfederalregister.gov
  5. 5Federal Register, Volume 91 Issue 167 (Monday, August 31, 2026)govinfo.gov

8. How does the volume of President Trump's executive actions in August 2026 compare to his monthly average for his second term (2025-2026)?

Orders in August 20266 [1]
Total Second-Term Orders (as of Sept 2026)277 [2]
Second-Term Monthly Average14.6 orders [2]
President Trump's executive actions in August 2026 were below his second-term average. He issued six executive orders during August 2026 [1]. This volume was notably lower than his second-term monthly average, which stands at approximately 14.6 orders [2].
Trump's second term total reached 277 executive orders by early September. As of early September 2026, President Trump had signed a total of 277 executive orders since his second term commenced on January 20, 2025 [1]. This total translates to a monthly average of approximately 14.6 executive orders over the 19-month period [2]. Furthermore, a prediction market resolved to 'Yes' for September 4, 2026, indicating that at least one executive order was signed during the week of August 30–September 5, 2026 [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Trump issued six executive orders in August, bringing his second-term total to 277 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  2. 2EO Watch — Executive Order Tracker | Capitol Tracecapitoltrace.com
  3. 3Will Trump sign an executive order on...? (August 30 - Se... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

9. What are the primary public sources for tracking Trump's presidential actions, and what is the typical lag between an action's signing and its official publication?

Executive Orders (Aug 30-Sep 5, 2026)0 [1]
General Actions (Aug 30-Sep 5, 2026)10 [1]
Total Executive Orders (2nd Term, as of Sep 3, 2026)277 [2][3]
Public sources provide official tracking for presidential actions. The primary public sources for monitoring U.S. presidential actions include the White House website (whitehouse.gov) for immediate releases, the Federal Register (federalregister.gov) for official legal publication, and the Compilation of Presidential Documents (govinfo.gov), which is maintained by the National Archives [4][5][6][7][8][2]. The Federal Register is particularly crucial as the essential public record for presidential documents, including executive orders and proclamations, which are legally mandated to be published there and are assigned official numbers [2][9][10][11].
Official publication of presidential actions faces a mandatory delay. There is a required delay between a president signing an action and its official publication in the Federal Register, typically lasting at least one day and frequently several business days [8][12][13][14]. This lag occurs because the White House must first transmit the signed document to the Office of the Federal Register for processing. Historically, this transmission process could extend to several weeks, which prompted a 2025 executive order specifically to investigate and improve the timeliness of such publications [15].
Recent records detail President Trump's second-term actions. For the specific week of August 30–September 5, 2026, tracked records indicate that 0 executive orders and 0 pardons were listed, alongside 10 general events or actions [1]. Across the entire month of August 2026, six executive orders were issued, contributing to a total of 277 executive orders signed by President Trump in his second term as of September 3, 2026 [2][3][16].
Sources (16)
  1. 1That Noisy Trumpthatnoisytrump.com
  2. 2Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Trump issued six executive orders in August, bringing his second-term total to 277 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Presidential Actions - The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  5. 5Executive Orders – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  6. 6Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents | National Archivesarchives.gov
  7. 7Compilation of Presidential Documents | GovInfogovinfo.gov
  8. 8Executive Orders - Federal Registerfederalregister.gov
  9. 9Federal Register weekly update: Highest weekly presidential document total since 2017 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  10. 10Growth of the Federal Register under Trump Administration Lowest in Last 22 Years - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Presidential memorandum - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  12. 12Agency FAQs for OFR | National Archivesarchives.gov
  13. 13Executive Orders | Legal Information Institute - Law.Cornell.Edulaw.cornell.edu
  14. 142026 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders - Federal Registerfederalregister.gov
  15. 15Executive Order: Increasing Efficiency at the Office of the Federal Register (Donald Trump, 2025) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  16. 16Donald Trump's executive orders on technology, 2025-2026ballotpedia.org

10. How does President Trump's rate of issuing presidential actions in his second term compare with President Obama's during the equivalent period of his second term?

Executive Orders in Second Term (as of Sep 3, 2026)277 [1][2]
Executive Orders in First Term220 [1][2]
Executive Orders issued in August 20266 [2][3]
President Trump’s second-term executive orders show a robust pace. His second term commenced on January 20, 2025. As of September 3, 2026, President Trump had issued 277 executive orders [1][2]. This rate has significantly surpassed that of previous administrations, including Barack Obama’s [1][2].
Second-term actions already exceed his first-term total. The 277 executive orders issued in President Trump's second term already exceed the 220 executive orders he issued during his entire first term [1][2]. In August 2026, President Trump issued six executive orders. For the period of August 30 through September 5, 2026, no additional executive orders were reported [2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1The Presidency | Govwatchgovwatch.app
  2. 2Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Trump issued six executive orders in August, bringing his second-term total to 277 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

President Donald Trump signed executive orders on September 4, 2026 [1]. On September 5, 2026, President Trump announced the deployment of envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv with a proposal to end the war in Ukraine [2]. President Trump reportedly stated he is in no hurry to end the war [3]. Foreign policy shifts also include a potential scale-back in the Asia-Pacific, with President Trump reportedly directing the Pentagon to substantially reduce joint military exercises [4].
Domestically, the Trump administration has advanced executive priorities, including support for specific legislation (H.R. 8509) related to seafood competitiveness, publicly noted on September 1, 2026 [5]. However, a consolidated public count of specific presidential actions taken between August 30 and September 5, 2026, is not available, though the administration has been active in issuing executive orders and managing trade agreements throughout his current term [6][7][8]. Separately, House Resolution 1486 was introduced on August 24, 2026, to impeach President Donald Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: September 06, 2026
  • Expiration: December 05, 2026
  • Closes: September 06, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1President Trump Signs Executive Orders, Sep. 4, 2026whitehouse.gov
  2. 2Trump sends envoys to Moscow, Kyiv with new plan to 'end war'afp.com
  3. 3US-Iran Peace Prospects Dim as Trump Rejects Truce Extension | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
  4. 4Gaza Strikes Dent Mideast Peace Prospects; Trump Reduces US-South Korea Drills | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  5. 5H5395congress.gov
  6. 62026 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders - Federal Registerfederalregister.gov
  7. 7Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8Presidential 2025 Tariff Actions: Timeline andcongress.gov
  9. 9H.Res.1486 - Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the...congress.gov

13. Related News

-65.0pp
Last updated: September 5, 2026, 12:27 UTC

Scrutiny of EO Signing Dates Slashes Odds for High Trump Action Count

The publication of two executive orders in the Federal Register this week, which confirmed they were signed in late August, prompted traders on Friday, September 4, 2026, to slash expectations for the...

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTRUMPACT-26AUG23-T9: NO (Aug 30, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPACT-26AUG23-T8: NO (Aug 30, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPACT-26AUG23-T7: NO (Aug 30, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPACT-26AUG23-T6: YES (Aug 30, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPACT-26AUG23-T5: YES (Aug 30, 2026)