Short Answer

Trump is expected to release more UFO files before September 25, 2026. However, the prolonged 42-day interval since the last UAP file release and the short 7-day remaining window suggest this outcome is less probable than the market's 95.0% price.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's volatility was driven by expectations around the timing of new disclosures, not by specific news events. A 43.0 percentage point price drop on September 14 reflected the sustained absence of public announcements signaling an imminent file release. This decline was reversed by a 45.0 point spike the next day, though research identifies no direct cause for the sudden positive shift.

Sentiment continued to drive price action through the week. A perceived slowdown in the administration's rolling release schedule contributed to a 9.0 point drop on September 16. Subsequent price spikes of 21.0 and 12.0 points on September 17 and 18, which pushed the probability to 94.0%, did not coincide with any reported news. The final move occurred on high volume, with 899 contracts traded.

Release before October 2, 2026, appears likely from the ongoing PURSUE program.
However, a 42-day interval since the last release indicates a disclosure slowdown.
New legal waivers emerged too late to accelerate releases for this period.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Before Sep 18, 2026	1.0%	0.9%	The observed slowdown in file releases suggests an early disclosure before Sep 18, 2026 is less likely.
Before Sep 25, 2026	95.0%	94.3%	The observed slowdown in the PURSUE program's cadence makes a release before Sep 25, 2026 less probable.
Before Oct 2, 2026	94.0%	94.3%	The prolonged 42-day interval since August 7, 2026 indicates a slower disclosure schedule.

Current Context

President Trump initiated UAP file declassification, establishing a formal release system. In February 2026, President Donald Trump directed federal agencies to declassify and release government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, citing strong public interest ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. The administration established the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) program to manage the collection, review, and public release of these records ^[2]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. The first batch of approximately 160 declassified files, including videos and Apollo-era mission documents, was released in May 2026 ^[2]^[4]. The PURSUE program began releasing these files on a rolling basis starting May 8, 2026 ^[5]^[6]^[7].

UAP files are released periodically, with further disclosures facilitated via waivers. The Department of War has been releasing UAP files under the PURSUE program in periodic tranches, with specific releases documented in May, June, and July 2026 ^[5]^[6]. The Department of Defense has indicated that additional tranches of declassified UAP records will continue to be posted on a rolling basis every few weeks ^[6]. As of September 2026, the administration is actively facilitating further disclosures by issuing targeted legal waivers that protect whistleblowers and personnel from non-disclosure agreements when providing UAP information to the PURSUE team ^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]. There is no specific set date for the next release of files, as the process is ongoing, involving the systematic review and security evaluation of new materials submitted via the PURSUE program ^[8]^[10]^[11].

Sources (11)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before Sep 25, 2026

📈 September 18, 2026: 66.0pp spike

Price increased from 29.0% to 95.0%

What happened: Based on the provided research, there is no direct evidence to identify the primary driver of the 66.0 percentage point spike on September 18, 2026. While President Trump initiated the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) in February 2026, which releases files on a rolling basis, the research explicitly states there is no single publicly announced date for the next specific release beyond the established pattern of ongoing disclosures ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. Rumors of a high-profile "disclosure speech" were officially denied by the White House ^[6]. No relevant social media activity, traditional news, or announcements coinciding with or leading the price move on September 18, 2026, were found in the provided sources. Therefore, social media was irrelevant based on the available information.

Outcome: Before Oct 2, 2026

📈 September 17, 2026: 21.0pp spike

Price increased from 61.0% to 82.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain any social media activity, traditional news, or official announcements coinciding with or leading to the 21.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on September 17, 2026. While President Trump had directed the release of UFO-related files, with several tranches already released by August 2026 ^[7]^[3], there was no publicly announced specific date for an additional release of documents as of September 18, 2026 ^[8]. Therefore, the primary driver for this price movement cannot be identified from the given information, and social media activity was not a primary driver based on these sources.

📉 September 16, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 70.0% to 61.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point price drop appears to be the perceived slowdown in the Trump administration's rolling release schedule for UFO files, rather than a specific social media post or news announcement on September 16, 2026. The administration had previously released tranches of UAP/UFO records "every few weeks" ^[9]^[10]^[4], with the last documented release occurring on August 7, 2026 ^[4]^[11]. With over a month passing since the prior release and no new disclosures by September 16, market participants likely lowered their expectations for an additional release before the October 2, 2026, deadline. Social media activity was irrelevant to this particular price movement based on the available information.

📈 September 15, 2026: 45.0pp spike

Price increased from 25.0% to 70.0%

What happened: The available web research does not indicate a specific social media post, traditional news announcement, or market structure factor that directly caused the 45.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on September 15, 2026. While President Trump's administration had established an ongoing program for periodic UFO file releases, with activity confirmed through August 2026, no new event on or immediately before this date signaling an imminent release is cited ^[3]^[9]^[10]^[11]. Consequently, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver or contributing accelerant for this particular price movement based on the provided information.

📉 September 14, 2026: 43.0pp drop

Price decreased from 68.0% to 25.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price drop was the sustained absence of any public announcements or credible political reporting indicating a new, specific UFO file release scheduled for on or before October 2, 2026 ^[1]^[12]^[7]^[13]^[3]. While the Trump administration initiated ongoing UAP file releases in tranches since May 2026, there was no specific public announcement for an additional, distinct release by the market's deadline ^[9]^[5]^[3]. As the October 2, 2026, deadline approached without such an announcement, the market likely adjusted its expectation for a separate event before that date. Based on the provided information, social media was irrelevant as no posts related to this specific event or date were found.

Sources (13)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

These markets resolve 'Yes' if Donald Trump releases more UFO files before the specified deadline for each contract, and 'No' if he does not. The key deadlines are September 18, 2026, September 25, 2026, and October 2, 2026. The latest possible settlement date is October 2, 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Before Sep 18, 2026	$0.03	$0.99	1%
Before Sep 25, 2026	$0.92	$0.23	95%
Before Oct 2, 2026	$1.00	$0.11	94%

Market Discussion

President Donald Trump directed federal agencies to declassify and release UFO and UAP documents in February 2026, establishing the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) program ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. Multiple tranches of files have since been released under PURSUE, with the first on May 8, 2026, and four official tranches occurring by July 10, 2026 ^[1]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[8]. Despite persistent rumors of a presidential "disclosure speech," which the White House formally states is not planned, prediction markets actively trade on the timing of further declassifications ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[4]^[12]^[13]^[14].

Sources (14)

5. Trust Index

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score84Good

Trade quality20% of score81Good

Trust score84Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What does the release cadence of the PURSUE program between May and July 2026 indicate about the likely timing of the next UAP file drop?

Initial release intervals (days)	14, 21, 28, and 28 ^[1]^[2]
Days since last release (as of Sep 18, 2026)	42 ^[3]^[4]^[5]
Prediction market confidence for release before Oct 2, 2026	77-79% ^[6]^[7]^[8]

The PURSUE program launched with an inconsistent release schedule for UAP records. Initiated by the Trump administration on May 8, 2026, the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) has followed a variable, non-fixed rolling schedule for its UAP record releases ^[1]^[2]. The first five tranches of records were released on May 8, May 22, June 12, July 10, and August 7, 2026 ^[4]^[5]^[9]. The intervals between these initial releases varied, spanning 14, 21, 28, and 28 days, which demonstrates the absence of a publicly announced or consistent fixed schedule ^[1]^[2].

A current pause in releases contrasts with strong prediction market confidence. As of September 18, 2026, official listings from the U.S. Department of War and UAP Global do not indicate a new PURSUE release has occurred since August 7, 2026, creating a 42-day gap since the last update ^[4]^[5]^[3]. Despite this current period without updates, prediction markets, as of early to mid-September 2026, show significant confidence (77-79%) that the Trump administration will release another UAP file before October 2, 2026 ^[6]^[7]^[8].

Sources (9)

7. What potential catalysts, such as high-profile whistleblower testimony under new legal waivers, could accelerate the next PURSUE program file release into late August or early September 2026?

UAP Whistleblower Waiver Announced	September 14, 2026 ^[1]^[2]
PURSUE Fifth Tranche Release Date	August 7, 2026 ^[3]
Prediction Market Probability (New Release by Sept 25, 2026)	61% (as of Sept 11, 2026) ^[4]

A new legal waiver emerged too late to accelerate releases. The Department of War announced a new legal waiver on September 14, 2026, designed to protect UAP whistleblowers ^[1]^[2]. This initiative aimed to streamline the sharing of information with PURSUE representatives and provide an official channel for insiders to disclose previously restricted data. However, the waiver itself does not automatically declassify information nor does it ensure a specific release date ^[1]^[2]. Given its announcement date, this waiver could not have served as a catalyst for accelerating a PURSUE program file release into late August or early September 2026, as its timing occurred after that specific window ^[1]^[2].

Previous releases and market predictions did not specify catalysts. The PURSUE program's fifth tranche of records was released on August 7, 2026, bringing the total number of files to 375 ^[3]^[5]. A prediction market on Kalshi indicated an implied probability of 61% for another file release before September 25, 2026, as of September 11, 2026 ^[4]. The provided research findings do not contain additional information describing specific catalysts or high-profile whistleblower testimonies that could have accelerated a PURSUE program file release into late August or early September 2026.

Sources (5)

8. How does the Trump administration's PURSUE program compare to past U.S. government UAP initiatives like Project Blue Book in terms of transparency and release frequency?

PURSUE Launch Date	May 8, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]
PURSUE Transparency Cadence	rolling release (new files every few weeks) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Project Blue Book Duration	1952–1969 ^[2]^[4]

The Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) implements frequent, digital UAP record releases under a Trump initiative. Launched on May 8, 2026, PURSUE is a Trump administration program designed to systematically identify, declassify, and publish UAP-related records on a centralized portal at war.gov/UFO ^[1]^[2]^[5]^[3]. The program employs a "rolling release" cadence, issuing new tranches of files every few weeks, which marks a shift towards more frequent, automated, and digital-first transparency compared to past archival releases ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Critics have characterized PURSUE as "managed transparency" due to its focus on the procedural release of curated records, rather than a legal requirement to disclose specific material evidence ^[3].

PURSUE significantly diverges from Project Blue Book in scope and release methods. Project Blue Book, a historical initiative operating from 1952 to 1969, was an investigative and largely unclassified program that aggregated civilian and military reports ^[2]^[4]. In contrast, PURSUE is an interagency, presidential-mandated declassification program that primarily focuses on releasing previously classified or restricted military-grade records and imagery ^[2]^[3]. This emphasis on frequent, automated, and digital-first transparency in PURSUE represents a distinct approach to data release frequency and transparency compared to Project Blue Book's operations during an earlier era ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Sources (5)

9. Is a public manifest available itemizing the specific documents and media included in the May, June, and July 2026 PURSUE program releases?

Official Manifest Source	war.gov/UFO ^[1]
Total Verified Files	375 (as of August 7, 2026) ^[2]
PURSUE Release Dates	May 8, May 22, June 12, and July 10, 2026 ^[2]

A public manifest for PURSUE program releases is readily available. The U.S. Department of War maintains this comprehensive public manifest online at war.gov/UFO ^[1]. This official resource meticulously itemizes every document and media file included in the May, June, and July 2026 PURSUE program releases, detailing each entry by its release date, originating agency, and specific file type ^[1].

PURSUE program releases have provided hundreds of verified files. The program's releases occurred on May 8, May 22, June 12, and July 10, 2026 ^[2]. As of August 7, 2026, these releases collectively amounted to 375 verified files ^[2]. Beyond the official manifest, several third-party trackers, including pursueufotracker.com and github.laiyagushi.com, offer verified, searchable, and structured datasets derived from these releases ^[3]^[4]. These external resources complement the official listings by providing additional ways to access and analyze the released information.

Sources (4)

10. What procedural delays within the Department of Defense's declassification process could postpone the next UAP file release until late September 2026 or later?

UAP file releases began	May 2026 ^[1]^[2]
Batches released by early Sep 2026	Five ^[1]^[2]
Primary cause of declassification delays	Complex, non-standardized bureaucratic procedures ^[1]^[2]

UAP file releases face delays despite initial government efforts. The U.S. government began systematically releasing Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon files in May 2026, issuing five batches by early September 2026 ^[1]^[2]. Despite these initial releases, the declassification process is encountering significant procedural delays. These postponements are largely attributed to the complex and non-standardized bureaucratic procedures involved ^[1]^[2].

Vetting classified information across agencies creates significant challenges. Delays are specifically linked to the time-intensive vetting of classified information, a process that requires ensuring national security by involving multiple agencies such as the military, the CIA, and the Department of Energy ^[1]. Managing disparate records across these various entities poses a substantial hurdle. Additionally, criticisms suggest that current processes may prioritize information control over transparency, potentially contributing to ongoing postponements in the release of further UAP files ^[1].

Sources (2)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Trump administration established the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) via an executive order on February 19, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This directive led to the first public disclosure of UAP-related documents on May 8, 2026 ^[4]^[5]. The federal government began releasing batches of declassified UAP documents regularly in 2026, with specific releases on May 8, May 22, June 12, July 10, and August 7, 2026 ^[1]^[3]^[6].

Between May 8 and August 7, 2026, the Department of War released five tranches of UFO-related documents, photos, and sensor footage under the PURSUE initiative ^[5]. As of August 2026, the PURSUE program remains ongoing, with hundreds of records released and agencies continuing to identify and publish additional materials ^[3]^[6]. Future releases are managed on a rolling basis, with more tranches planned every few weeks ^[4]^[5]. The administration also issued a targeted legal waiver by September 2026 to protect UAP-related whistleblowers reporting directly to the PURSUE team ^[7]^[8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: August 21, 2026
Closes: October 02, 2026

Sources (8)

Recent resolutions:

KXUAPFILES-26AUG10-26SEP11: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
KXUAPFILES-26AUG10-26SEP04: NO (Sep 04, 2026)
KXUAPFILES-26AUG10-26AUG28: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
KXUAPFILES-26AUG10-26AUG21: NO (Aug 21, 2026)
KXUAPFILES-26JUL23-26JUL27: NO (Jul 27, 2026)

When will Trump release more UFO files?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Before Sep 25, 2026

📈 September 18, 2026: 66.0pp spike

Outcome: Before Oct 2, 2026

📈 September 17, 2026: 21.0pp spike

📉 September 16, 2026: 9.0pp drop

📈 September 15, 2026: 45.0pp spike

📉 September 14, 2026: 43.0pp drop

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What does the release cadence of the PURSUE program between May and July 2026 indicate about the likely timing of the next UAP file drop?

7. What potential catalysts, such as high-profile whistleblower testimony under new legal waivers, could accelerate the next PURSUE program file release into late August or early September 2026?

8. How does the Trump administration's PURSUE program compare to past U.S. government UAP initiatives like Project Blue Book in terms of transparency and release frequency?

9. Is a public manifest available itemizing the specific documents and media included in the May, June, and July 2026 PURSUE program releases?

10. What procedural delays within the Department of Defense's declassification process could postpone the next UAP file release until late September 2026 or later?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

War Dept. Waiver Lifts Odds of Imminent Trump UFO File Release

14. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Before Sep 25, 2026

📈 September 18, 2026: 66.0pp spike

Outcome: Before Oct 2, 2026

📈 September 17, 2026: 21.0pp spike

📉 September 16, 2026: 9.0pp drop

📈 September 15, 2026: 45.0pp spike

📉 September 14, 2026: 43.0pp drop

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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War Dept. Waiver Lifts Odds of Imminent Trump UFO File Release

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company