How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/13-9/19)
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Official sources confirm at least eight actions; a ninth appears highly probable. No explicit evidence currently supports a tenth action by September 19, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 8 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Official sources confirm at least 8 presidential actions occurred by September 17, 2026. |
| At least 7 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Official sources confirm at least 8 presidential actions occurred by September 17, 2026. |
| At least 6 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Official sources confirm at least 8 presidential actions occurred by September 17, 2026. |
| At least 9 | 89.0% | 100.0% | Official sources confirm 8 actions, with a 9th highly probable by September 18, 2026. |
| At least 5 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Official sources confirm at least 8 presidential actions occurred by September 17, 2026. |
Current Context
Sources (10)
- 1President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 2WEEKEND GUIDANCE AND PRESS SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 - SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2026 — White House Press Poolbnonews.com
- 3WEEKEND GUIDANCE AND PRESS SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 - SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2026 — White House Press Poolbnonews.com
- 4Executive Order 14347 - Congress.govcongress.gov
- 5Controlling Advanced Artificial Intelligence: Executive Order 14409 Explained | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 6Congressional and Presidential Authority to Impose Import Tariffscongress.gov
- 7Presidential 2025 Tariff Actions: Timeline and Status | Congress.govcongress.gov
- 8Trump chastises Zelensky over Russian refinery strikes during Ireland visitfrance24.com
- 9President Trump Gaggles with Press at First Tee Box Doonbeg, Sep. 13, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 10List of presidential trips made by Donald Trump (2026)en.wikipedia.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 9
📈 September 18, 2026: 34.0pp spike
Price increased from 55.0% to 89.0%
Outcome: At least 8
📈 September 17, 2026: 72.0pp spike
Price increased from 27.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: At least 6
📈 September 16, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 62.0%
📈 September 14, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 35.0% to 45.0%
Sources (12)
- 1Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 2RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 3Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 4Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 5Adjusting Certain Delegations Under the Defense Production Act – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 6Accelerating Access To Veterans' Benefits And Employment Opportunities – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 7Trump’s EPA repeals pollution limits on fossil fuel power plants: NPRnpr.org
- 8Federal Register:: Modifying the Scope of Products of Canada Subject to the Additional Duties Imposed To Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Alcoholic Beveragesfederalregister.gov
- 9How Donald Trump’s approval rating has changed since RNC convention - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 10Trump Defended A.I. Data Centers on Truth Social, and Commenters Clapped Back - Theamericanhabittheamericanhabit.com
- 11Federal Register:: Modifying the Scope of Products of Canada Subject to the Additional Duties Imposed To Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Motor Vehiclesfederalregister.gov
- 12Federal Register:: Excluding Certain Canadian Products From Importation Into the United States in Response to Continued Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Motor Vehiclesfederalregister.gov
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This contract resolves to YES if Donald Trump takes 10 or more presidential actions during the week of September 13th to September 19th. Conversely, it resolves to NO if he takes fewer than 10 presidential actions within that timeframe. No special settlement conditions or deadlines beyond the specified week are detailed on this page.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 2 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 3 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 4 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 5 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 6 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 7 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 8 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 9 | $0.88 | $0.14 | 89% |
| At least 10 | $0.47 | $0.54 | 47% |
| At least 15 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
During the week of September 13–19, 2026, President Donald J. Trump issued four formal presidential actions, including Executive Orders and proclamations [1][2][3][4]. Public commentary indicates that the number of such actions is typically determined by evolving policy priorities rather than a fixed weekly quota, making a definitive or predictable count challenging [5]. While other prediction markets during this period focused on topics like President Trump's social media activity or his continued presidency, they did not forecast the number of formal presidential actions [6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 2Federal Register:: Excluding Certain Canadian Products From Importation Into the United States in Response to Continued Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Motor Vehiclesfederalregister.gov
- 3Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 4RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 5President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 6Donald Trump post 80-99 times on Truth Social, September 11-18? | Lines.comlines.com
- 7Will Trump Say ‘Migrant Criminal’ This Week? (September 14-20, 2026) | Lines.comlines.com
- 8Trump out as President by September 30? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 9Will Trump Be Out as President by September 30? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 10Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in September? | Paritypredictparity.com
5. Trust Index
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What is President Trump's historical weekly average of presidential actions in 2026, and how does that baseline inform the forecast for September 13-19?
| Weekly average executive orders | Approximately 3.3 (as of early September 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Total presidential actions | 549 (as of mid-September 2026) [1][2][3] |
| Total executive orders | 281 (as of mid-September 2026) [1][2][3] |
Sources (6)
- 1Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2EO Watch — Executive Order Tracker | Capitol Tracecapitoltrace.com
- 3Donald J. Trump (2nd Term) | Govwatchgovwatch.app
- 4Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsiosyoutube.com
- 5Jensen Huang: The Doomer Hoax, Superintelligence is Here, and The Future of AI (ft. President Trump)youtube.com
- 6Trump Attacks Fed Hike, Suggests Tariffs on Europe | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
7. Which specific policy initiatives, such as the scheduled healthcare announcement, are most likely to generate presidential actions from the Trump administration between September 18-19, 2026?
| Primary Policy Initiative | Healthcare announcement regarding drug pricing [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Announcement Date | September 18, 2026 [3] |
| Policy Detail | Most-favored-nation pricing for certain drugs in Medicaid [1][2] |
Sources (6)
- 1US plans Medicaid most-favored-nation pricing for some drugs in all states, Semafor reports | Reutersreuters.com
- 2White House claims drug pricing progress | Semaforsemafor.com
- 3[CALENDAR ADDITION] US President Trump is to make an announcement on healthcare at 14:30EDT/19:30BST on Friday and will travel to Camp David Friday to Sunday | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
- 4RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 5Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 6Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
8. How does President Trump's volume of actions in weeks with foreign travel (e.g., Ireland, Sep 12-13) typically compare to weeks focused on domestic policy rollouts?
| Direct Comparison Data | Not available for volume of actions in weeks with foreign travel vs [1]. domestic policy focus (research did not provide direct comparison) [2] |
|---|---|
| Presidential Actions Definition | Typically counted as formal documents (executive orders, proclamations, presidential memoranda) published on whitehouse.gov [1][2][3] |
| Actions in Sep 13-19, 2026 | At least 4 documented presidential actions as of September 18, 2026 [4][5][6][7][8] |
Sources (12)
- 1How to use the Trump Presidential Actions Toolpro.oddsassist.com
- 2Will Trump do anything this week? (5/17-5/23) | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 3How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 5RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 6Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 7Federal Register:: Excluding Certain Canadian Products From Importation Into the United States in Response to Continued Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Motor Vehiclesfederalregister.gov
- 8Federal Register:: Modifying the Scope of Products of Canada Subject to the Additional Duties Imposed To Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Motor Vehiclesfederalregister.gov
- 9Trump's travel pace largely mirrors Biden's, with more sports events and golf | AP Newsapnews.com
- 10The first year of Donald Trump’s second term – Diplomatic activity [MAP] | Institute of New Europeine.org.pl
- 11White House Travel – Transition Projectwhitehousetransitionproject.org
- 12Trump Travel Statistics: Presidential Movements Datalocatetrump.com
9. Which official sources, from the White House Press Office to the Federal Register, provide the most timely updates on presidential actions for tracking the week of September 13-19?
| Official Tracking Sources | White House 'Presidential Actions' page, Federal Register's Presidential Documents, Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents (National Archives) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Total Actions (Sept 13-19, 2026) | At least five (President Donald Trump) [1][2][6][7][5] |
| Specific Actions (Sept 13-19, 2026) | Proclamation on Constitution Week, Memorandum on government procurement, Drug transit designation, Executive order on saltwater angling, Executive order on hunting [1][2][6][7][5] |
Sources (12)
- 1RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 2Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 3Presidential Actions – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 4Presidential Actionswhitehouse.gov
- 5Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 6President Trump Designates the 2027 “Major’s List” – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 7Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Restores Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 8Office of Management and Budgetbls.gov
- 9FOMC Press Release, Release Date: 2026-08-19 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
- 10Overnight Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Purchased by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 11Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Total Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 12Trade in an Uncertain World:newyorkfed.org
10. Beyond the public schedule, what external events could trigger reactive, unscheduled presidential actions from Trump between September 16 and September 19, 2026?
| Recent Outburst Cause | Media reports on Iran war and internal briefings (September 17-18, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Federal Judge Ruling Impact | Threat to close or demolish Kennedy Center after adverse federal judge ruling [3] |
| Foreign Policy Reaction | Characterized Canada's potential EU associate membership as "hostile act" and threatened tariffs [4] |
Sources (4)
- 1Trump threatens ‘dirty dogs’ who keep leaking: ‘You will pay a big price!’ | The Independentindependent.co.uk
- 2Trump Melts Down at ‘Dirty Dogs’ Leaking All His Secretsthedailybeast.com
- 3Trump says Kennedy Center could be 'ripped down' if he doesn't get 'recognition' - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 4Trump calls possible Canada-EU move a hostile act after escalating trade war - Sudbury Newssudbury.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 20, 2026
- Expiration: December 19, 2026
- Closes: September 20, 2026
Sources (10)
- 1Reinvigorating America's Hunting Heritage – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 2RESTORING AMERICAN SALTWATER ANGLING AND RECREATION – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 3Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 4Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 52026 Donald J. Trump Executive Ordersfederalregister.gov
- 6H.Res.1486 - Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the...congress.gov
- 7H.Res.1486 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 8Crec 2026 04 30 pt1 pgs2162.htmcongress.gov
- 9Five Ways 2026 Looks Like 2018 — and Five Ways It Doesn'tcookpolitical.com
- 10Presidents of the United Statesgovtrack.us
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPACT-26SEP06-T9: YES (Sep 13, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26SEP06-T8: YES (Sep 13, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26SEP06-T7: YES (Sep 13, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26SEP06-T6: YES (Sep 13, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26SEP06-T5: YES (Sep 13, 2026)