Short Answer

The consensus is that Bitcoin will not reach $81,779.15 in the 15-minute window from 3:00 AM EDT to 3:15 AM EDT, with the market pricing this outcome at 7.5%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Target $81,779.15 likely, with on-chain metrics showing modest range support.
  • October 23 Deribit options expiry may influence short-term Bitcoin price volatility.

Current Context

Prediction markets indicate balanced odds around the target price. For the Oct. 23, 2026 3:00–3:15 AM EDT BTC 15-minute event, the most relevant market snapshot at 3:00 AM EDT showed the $81,700-or-above contract at 55% and $81,800-or-above at 26% [1][2][3]. The $81,900-or-above contract traded at 10% [1][2][3]. The adjacent 3:00 AM range market priced $81,700–$81,799.99 at 28¢ and $81,800–$81,899.99 at 21¢ [1][2]. The target price of $81,779.15 falls between the $81,700 and $81,800 thresholds; interpolation of these binary-market prices suggests roughly even odds, with a market-implied central zone around $81,700–$81,800 rather than a strong directional edge [1]. These prediction contracts draw settlement values from CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real Time Index, averaging 60 observations in the final minute [2][4][3][5][6][7]. The 15-minute comparison uses the ending-minute average against the starting-minute average, meaning exchange spot prices may not precisely match the settlement value [2][4][3][5][6][7]. Although the prediction-market evidence provides a probabilistic signal, not a deterministic forecast, these listed markets showed substantial liquidity, including approximately $340,000 in 24-hour volume and $202,000 in open interest on the 3:00 AM threshold market [1][2][3]. The exact $81,779.15 contract for the 3:00–3:15 AM window was not directly found in the search results [1][2][3].
Bitcoin expert sentiment is mixed, with volatility expected to rise. Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen projects Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 by year-end 2026 [8]. LO:TECH's Adam Morgan McCarthy anticipates an $85,000–$95,000 year-end range, citing inflation and rate-hike risk [8]. K33 reported that 28-day realized volatility is near a 2026 low of 1.2% [9]. Volatility is expected to increase ahead of the Federal Reserve decision on Oct. 27–28 and the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms [9].
Upcoming calendar events and options expiry present near-term risks. Deribit weekly options expire on Oct. 23 at 08:00 UTC, involving approximately $1.2 billion in BTC options [10]. Puts outnumber calls 1.25-to-1, with a notable $78,000 put strike [10]. Broader Q4 outlooks identify the Oct. 27–28 Fed meeting, interest rates, ETF demand, and the $88,000–$90,000 call-option area as significant drivers [11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 3am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2BTC price range on Oct 23, 2026 at 3am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3October 23, 2026: BTC 15 min · 2:15–2:30 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4October 23, 2026: BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 2am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5October 23, 2026: BTC 15 min · 12:45–1:00 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6October 23, 2026: BTC 15 min · 2:00–2:15 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 715 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  8. 8Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 splits analysts as rate risks loomcoindesk.com
  9. 9Bitcoin volatility nears 2026 lows as traders brace for Fed decision and US midtermstheblock.co
  10. 10Bitcoin week ahead: Alpenglow 21 Oct, options expiry 23 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
  11. 11Digital Assets in Q4: Market Outlooknexo.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the final average Bitcoin price is strictly above $81,779.15, and to NO if it is at or below that target. The market expires at 3:15 AM EDT on October 23. The official and final value is determined by averaging 60 prices collected from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

While current market listings do not explicitly expose a live BTC 15-minute contract targeting $81,779.15, this price point has been observed as a contemporaneous reference and is cited as a significant technical resistance or breakout level [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Historical data for similar 15-minute BTC targets show mixed outcomes, with some near the $81K level resolving both Yes and No on Oct. 22, 2026, underscoring the influence of timing, execution, and liquidity on these short-duration markets [11][12][13][14].

Sources (14)
  1. 1prob.watch
  2. 2CZ # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026? - Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Predictions | Defined.fidefined.fi
  4. 4BTC (Bitcoin) perpetual futuresperpdexlist.com
  5. 5Get live tBTC/WETH trading pair on Uniswap V3 | WhatToFarmwhattofarm.io
  6. 6Yahoo Financeleibchen.org
  7. 7Bitcoin (BTC) Price, Chart & Analysis | CoinKimcoinkim.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Break $81.7K Before the Fed Vote?bitcoinethereumnews.com
  9. 91. Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Escape $80K Before Fed Hike Risk Hits?coinpaper.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Price Analysis Today | BTC Support & Resistance Zones Live | CoinListingcoinlisting.net
  11. 11BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  12. 12Kalshi Crypto Markets: Bitcoin & Ethereum Odds vs What Actually Settled | ContractTaxcontracttax.com
  13. 13He made $19K by buying BTC at 99¢ in the last minute of...reddit.com
  14. 14Kalshi Markets Resolved in 2026 (4) | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 78 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score52Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score78Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $81,779.1565
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $81,779.15—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $81,779.1595
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
52Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.1c slippage (~2% of a 6.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $81,779.15Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 23, 2026

5. How might the ~$1.2 billion Deribit options expiry on October 23 influence Bitcoin's spot price volatility in the hours leading up to the 3:00 AM EDT resolution?

Expiry Notional Value$1.2 billion-$1.32 billion (October 23, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Max Pain Point$82,000 [1][2][3][4][5]
Settlement Time4:00 AM EDT [1][2][3][4][5]
A substantial Bitcoin options expiry on October 23, 2026, nears its resolution. The Deribit Bitcoin options expiry is valued at approximately $1.2 billion-$1.32 billion in notional value, with a max pain point identified at $82,000 [1][2][3][4][5]. This expiry is scheduled to settle at 4:00 AM EDT, one hour after the prediction market's resolution window commences at 3:00 AM EDT [1][2][3][4][5]. In the hours leading up to 3:00 AM EDT, Bitcoin's spot price volatility could be influenced by two-sided gamma-driven positioning, potentially resulting in damped price movements or a gravitational pull towards the $82,000 max pain point [3][4][6]. With BTC spot prices observed between $81,610-$81,780, the market was in close proximity to the $82,000 max pain area, approximately 0.3%-0.5% below it [4].
Significant strike concentrations may trigger rapid delta re-hedging near expiry. While hedging by dealers could stabilize prices or draw them closer to $82,000, a move through significant concentrated strike levels, particularly between $80,000-$83,000, could trigger rapid delta re-hedging [1][3][4][6]. This scenario has the potential to temporarily amplify spot volatility, potentially creating swift 0.5%-1% price movements [1][2][3][4][7][6]. Noteworthy strike concentrations in the expiry chain included $78,000, $82,000, $70,000, $83,000, and $80,000 [1].
Broader market conditions indicate potential for sharp, short-lived price changes. The broader market has shown activity, with BRTI's October 23 range fluctuating between $81,018.36 and $81,911.86, following a 3.21% drop on the preceding day [1][8][7][9]. This existing market movement, combined with thin overnight liquidity and expiry-related hedging, increases the likelihood of sharp, short-lived price changes rather than a smooth progression toward max pain [1][8][7][9]. It is important to note that the prediction-market contract evaluates the average of 60 observations over a 15-minute window; therefore, a transient intra-window price spike that reverses might not affect the final resolution if the net movement during the interval is negligible [10][11]. This specific October 23 expiry is primarily relevant for short-horizon hedging and volatility, with the larger October 30 expiry considered more significant for Bitcoin's multi-day directional trends [2][3][4][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Bitcoin week ahead: Alpenglow 21 Oct, options expiry 23 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
  2. 2$1.31B in BTC options set to expire today - CoinNesscoinness.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Options: Implied Volatility, Open Interest & Expiriesperpfinder.com
  4. 4Crypto Options | Max Pain, DVOL, Put/Call Ratio | Xoomar Pulsexoomar.com
  5. 5Crypto Options Expiries: BTC & ETH Expiry Calendarperpfinder.com
  6. 6BTC & ETH Max Pain by Expiry, Put/Call & IV Skew | Fuelmapsfuelmaps.io
  7. 7Bitcoin max pain today, every expiry · Swiftedgeswiftedge.uk
  8. 8[비트 옵션 동향] 미결제약정 13억2300만 달러...24시간 거래 콜 우위 | 토큰포스트tokenpost.kr
  9. 9Bitcoin Real-Time Historical Data (BRTI) - Investing.cominvesting.com
  10. 10October 23, 2026: BTC 15 min · 2:15–2:30 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  11. 11October 23, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:30–1:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

6. What on-chain metrics and exchange order book data for October 2026 support or contradict the market's implied tight trading range for Bitcoin around the $81,700–$81,800 level?

Prediction Market Range$81,700–$81,800 (Oct. 23, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Spot Order Book Imbalance+15.1% net bid support within 2% of market price [1][2]
30-day Options Implied Volatility36.4% versus 25.7% realized [6][7][8]
On-chain metrics and order book data modestly supported Bitcoin's tight trading range. On-chain metrics and exchange order book data for October 2026 offered modest support for the prediction market's implied tight trading range for Bitcoin around the $81,700–$81,800 level [1][2][6][7][8]. Specifically, on October 23, 2026, BTC was quoted near $81,643–$81,747, with prediction market contracts priced within this band [1][2][3][4][5]. Spot order books indicated net bid support, with bids within 2% totaling $184.2 million versus $135.9 million in asks, representing a +15.1% imbalance [1][2]. Liquidity was concentrated close to the market, and cross-venue prices were broadly clustered, with derivatives data reporting positive options dealer gamma that can damp moves [1][2][6][7][8][9][3].
However, several factors challenged a strong confinement to the $81,700-$81,800 range. Conversely, evidence contradicted a strong interpretation that BTC was structurally confined to only the $81,700–$81,800 level [1][2][6][7][8]. Displayed liquidity is not guaranteed, as orders can be canceled, and cross-venue prices showed dispersion [1][2][9][3]. Furthermore, the 30-day options implied volatility was elevated at 36.4% compared to 25.7% realized volatility, suggesting the market anticipated meaningful price movement [6][7][8]. Microstructure commentary also identified a broader value area of $80,940–$82,600, indicating that the $81,700–$81,800 band was merely a local center of gravity within a wider trading envelope [10][11].
Elevated volatility and broader value areas implied significant price breakout potential. The combination of elevated implied volatility, broader value-area boundaries, and the removable nature of displayed liquidity implied significant breakout or jump risk for Bitcoin [1][2][6][7][8]. While specific indicators supported a narrow near-term range, the overall market context did not suggest BTC was confined to the $81,700–$81,800 band as a low-risk trading zone [1][2][6][7][8][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Spot Order Book Heatmap: Where the Bids and Asks Sitbykaranteli.com
  2. 2BTC, ETH, SOL & XRP Spot Order Book Heatmap | Fuelmapsfuelmaps.io
  3. 3BTCUSD Order Books and Market Depth | ChartExchangechartexchange.com
  4. 4BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 3am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5BTC price range on Oct 23, 2026 at 3am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6Bitcoin's next selloff could be amplified by the traders still betting on its recoverycryptoslate.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Options Max Pain Price Today, Expiry & Open Interesten.coinotag.com
  8. 8Crypto Options Data: Implied Volatility, Skew & Open Interestperpfinder.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Price | Live BTC Price, Futures & Spot Datacoinboss.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Market Microstructure Archive: 2026-10-23 | thru.capitalthru.capital
  11. 11BTCUSDT: Bitcoin reclaims $80K — $82.5K resistance decides next for INDEX:BTCUSD by ItsEnayati — TradingViewtradingview.com

7. What are the core differences in the fundamental assumptions behind Bitwise's bullish EOY 2026 Bitcoin forecast versus LO:TECH's more conservative range?

Bitwise Bitcoin ForecastAbove $100,000 by end of 2026 [1][2]
LO:TECH Bitcoin Forecast$85,000 $95,000 year-end [1][2][3]
Estimated 2026 Bitcoin IssuanceApproximately 166,000 BTC [4][5]
Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin above $100,000 by 2026 year-end. The firm projects Bitcoin to finish 2026 above $100,000, driven by the belief that structural, multi-month demand forces will outweigh near-term macro volatility [1][2]. Core assumptions include continued institutional purchases through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury programs [1][2][3]. Bitwise also anticipates demand for Bitcoin as a hard asset due to concerns about inflation, rising government debt, and currency debasement [1][2][3]. Further, improving crypto regulation is expected to reduce ownership risk [1][2][3]. The broader 2026 supply-demand thesis estimates approximately 166,000 BTC of new issuance for the year, suggesting institutional ETF demand can exceed this new supply, thereby creating persistent scarcity pressure [4][5]. Bitwise views these institutional flows, hard-asset demand, and regulatory improvements as sufficiently powerful forces despite existing macro risks [1][2].
LO:TECH's outlook is conservative, prioritizing macro conditions. In contrast, LO:TECH holds a more conservative 2026 year-end range of $85,000-$95,000, assuming macro conditions, rather than longer-term adoption, will remain the dominant price determinant through December [1][2][3]. LO:TECH specifically assumes that persistent inflation and oil-price pressure could keep the Federal Reserve restrictive [1][2][3]. It highlights that September CPI rose 0.6% month over month and core CPI 0.3%, the Fed had raised rates 25 basis points in September, and markets priced approximately a 75% chance of a December hike [1][2][3]. For Bitcoin to move above $100,000, LO:TECH requires specific macro relief, such as falling oil prices, cooling inflation, and markets replacing December-hike expectations with a pause [1][2]. The forecasts primarily differ in their time horizon and causal weighting, with LO:TECH giving greater importance to immediate discount-rate and liquidity channels, expecting range-bound appreciation rather than a breakout [1][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Bitcoin's path to $100000 splits analysts as rate risks loomcoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Split: Bitwise Sees $100,000, LO:TECH Does Notnews.finst.com
  3. 3Bitcoin at $100K? Bitwise And LO Disagree On 2026cointribune.com
  4. 410 Crypto Predictions for 2026static.bitwiseinvestments.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Will See New Highs in 2026, $1 Million by 2030, Bitwise Exec Predictswebull.com

8. What publicly available sources provide the historical tick-level data for the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real Time Index used for the October 23, 2026 resolution?

Primary Tick-Level Data SourceCF Benchmarks REST API history endpoint [1][2][3][4]
Public Passthrough AccessKalshi's authenticated CF Benchmarks REST passthrough [1][4]
BRTI Calculation FrequencyApproximately every second, with a once-per-200-millisecond benchmark index price [1][2][3][4][5][6]
The CF Benchmarks REST API provides historical tick-level Bitcoin Real Time Index data. The primary publicly documented source for historical tick-level values of the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) is the CF Benchmarks REST API history endpoint, found at https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/api/v1/history/values [1][2][3][4]. Access to this endpoint requires a CF Benchmarks API license and key, supporting queries for BRTI data using the id=BRTI parameter in conjunction with a UTC timestamp [1][2][3][4]. The BRTI, also known as the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, is a Bitcoin-USD benchmark that is calculated approximately every second, with its official page noting a once-per-200-millisecond index price [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Kalshi provides a practical, authenticated passthrough for CF Benchmarks data. For practical public access to this data, Kalshi offers an authenticated CF Benchmarks REST passthrough service available at https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/cfbenchmarks/history/values [1][4]. This service necessitates Kalshi API-key request signing and acts as a conduit, forwarding requests to the CF Benchmarks endpoint for historical values, including intra-second granularity [1][4]. Other publicly documented access channels, such as CME Group's website, CME Market Data Platform, CME DataMine, Investing.com, and Barchart, are primarily identified as commercial or institutional data sources, or they only provide historical data at daily or minute-level granularity [7][5][6][8][9]. Consequently, these platforms are not considered authoritative substitutes for obtaining tick-level BRTI data [7][5][6][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1https://docs.kalshi.com/cfbenchmarks/rest-passthroughdocs.kalshi.com
  2. 2REST API | CF Benchmarks APIdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4CF Benchmarks Value Feed - API Documentationdocs.kalshi.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Frequently Asked Questionscmegroup.com
  6. 6FAQ: CME CF Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  7. 7CME CF Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Real-Time Historical Data (BRTI) - Investing.cominvesting.com
  9. 9CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index ($BRTI)barchart.com

9. How has the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) historically deviated from spot prices on major exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken during periods of high volatility?

BRTI Update Frequency200-millisecond basis, calculated every second [1][2][3]
BRTI/BRR Absolute-Deviation Rule Change15% in 2018 [4]
Coinbase Widest Daily Gap (vs. dollar exchanges)6.49% in 2017 [5]
The Bitcoin Real Time Index lacks a stable historical deviation rule. The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) is designed to aggregate Bitcoin-USD order-book data from multiple constituent exchanges, including major platforms like Coinbase and Kraken [1][2][3]. Updating every 200 milliseconds and calculated each second, this design aims to smooth isolated price movements from individual exchanges while remaining responsive to broader market trends [1]. There is no stable historical rule specifically describing its deviation from Coinbase or Kraken spot prices during periods of high volatility [6].
BRTI methodology actively manages extreme price movements and outliers. Its methodology incorporates a consolidated order book, dynamic utilized-depth calculation, and exponential weighting to limit the influence of thin or extreme individual quotes, particularly during disorderly markets [1][4]. Data considered potentially erroneous is subject to specific parameters, such as a 5% rule. The BRTI/BRR absolute-deviation rule was adjusted to 15% in 2018, indicating that extreme venue divergence is treated as anomalous data rather than normal BRTI tracking behavior [4].
Historical gaps occurred, but BRTI minimizes individual exchange deviation. Historical exchange evidence suggests that significant cross-venue gaps were more concentrated in earlier stressed periods, with Coinbase's widest daily gap versus dollar exchanges reaching 6.49% in 2017 [5]. While the BRTI should generally stay close to the multi-venue executable market midpoint, it can temporarily differ from a single venue's displayed or last price due to factors such as cross-exchange quote timing, liquidity, spreads, and its depth-weighted aggregation [1][6][7]. Critically, BRTI's multi-venue and outlier controls aim to make its deviation from any single venue smaller than that venue's deviation from the broader market [1][4][5][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1CME CF Cryptocurrency Real Time Indicesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2FAQ: CME CF Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  3. 3CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4OVERSIGHT COMMITTEEdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  5. 5Coinbase Premium: Is Coinbase Paying More for Bitcoin? | Maketomaketo.com
  6. 6CF Spot Ratesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  7. 7CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  8. 8Bitcoin arbitrage: The role of an exchangeaimspress.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Near-term catalysts include the expected U.S. GDP release on Oct. 23 and the Oct. 23 Deribit weekly options expiry at 08:00 UTC [1][2][3][4]. This expiry involves approximately 14,883 BTC with a put-heavy profile centered near the $78,000 strike [1][2][3][4]. Further dated events are the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting and a later Oct. 30 options expiry, identified as a potential volatility event [1][2][3][4].
The market scenario map indicates that holding the $80,000-$81,250 support area could allow a neutral-to-bullish continuation toward approximately $84,000 [1][3][4]. A bullish interpretation of GDP or liquidity, combined with sustained spot-Bitcoin ETF inflows, may support upside [1][3][4]. Conversely, hot GDP/inflation data or a hawkish-Fed repricing could pressure BTC toward $80,000 [1][3][4]. A sustained break below $80,000 would weaken the constructive setup, with a medium-term close below $79,600 cited as a broader bullish invalidation level [1][3][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 23, 2026
  • Expiration: October 30, 2026
  • Closes: October 23, 2026
Sources (4)
  1. 1News Pageh5.ainvest.com
  2. 2Bitcoin week ahead: Alpenglow 21 Oct, options expiry 23 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin faces watershed in next 45 days as eyes turn to U.S. FOMCdigitaltoday.co.kr
  4. 4Bitcoin’s $80,000 Floor Faces Pressure From Tech and Bond Volatility | Investing.com PHph.investing.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26OCT230300-00: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT230245-45: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT230230-30: NO (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT230215-15: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT230200-00: YES (Oct 23, 2026)