ETH 15 min · $2,407.06 target
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Target price $2,407.06 faces bearish-to-soft ETH momentum into the window.
- Deribit options data indicated a meaningful chance of ETH passing $2,410.
- Comparable prediction markets show ETH price $2,407.06 probability leaning lower.
Current Context
Sources (13)
- 1ETH price on Oct 23, 2026 at 4am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2ETH price on Oct 23, 2026 at 4am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3October 23, 2026: ETH 15 min · 3:00–3:15 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 415 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 5Ethereum price on October 23?polymarket.com
- 6$2,407.06 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ETfuture.news
- 7ETH 15min · $2,406.74 target | Up/Down Predictions | MEXCprediction.mexc.com
- 8ETH Up or Down - 15 Min | Limitlesslimitless.exchange
- 9Ethereum stays below $2,400 as geopolitical tensions trigger long liquidationsinvezz.com
- 10Top 3 Price Predictions: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC, ETH and XRP rebound as major support levels cap recent sell-offfxstreet.com
- 11ETH Price Prediction: ETH Stalls Below Every Short-Term Average as MACD Momentum Flatlines - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
- 12Ethereum (ETHUSD) Fluctuated Significantly on Oct 23: Key Variables Behind the Movetradingkey.com
- 13Ethereum (ETH/USD) Drops 3.3% as Crypto Sell-Off Widensforexr.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the final average price of ETH is greater than $2,407.06, and to NO if it is less than or equal to $2,407.06. The market expires at 5:00 AM ET on October 23. The official and final value is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before expiration.
Market Discussion
The $2,407.06 target is linked to historical Polymarket Ethereum 15-minute "Up-or-Down" markets from early September 2026, not a current live quote for October 23, 2026 [1]. While it appears to be a "Price to Beat" or opening reference for a past market (e.g., September 3, 2026), its precise role is inconsistent across sources, and no current trader sentiment or predictive signal can be established from the available evidence [1].
Sources (1)
4. Trust Index
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. What level of short liquidations on major exchanges like Binance and Bybit would be required to trigger a price cascade past $2,407.06 before 5:00 AM EDT on October 23?
| ETH Price Range (October 23, 2026) | $2,404-$2,409 (October 23, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Estimated ETH short liquidations within 5% above spot (Liqwall) | ~$116 million [1] |
| Estimated ETH liquidation value above $2,402.73 within 15% (PumpGlass Binance) | ~$488.5 million [2] |
Sources (5)
- 1Ethereum (ETH) Liquidation Map — Binance, OKX, Bybit | Liqwallliqwall.com
- 2Ethereum (ETHUSDT) Liquidation Heatmap & Liquidity Heatmap | PumpGlasspumpglass.com
- 3Liquidation Levels — Where Leveraged Positions Break | CoinClasscoinclass.com
- 4Ethereum (ETH) Liquidations, Funding Rate, Open Interest | Liqwallliqwall.com
- 5Crypto Liquidations on 23 Oct 2026: Longs vs Shorts by Coinswolecharts.com
6. What do key technical indicators like the RSI, MACD, and Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) signal about ETH's momentum leading into the 4:45 AM EDT resolution window on October 23?
| Relative Strength Index (RSI) | 39.8–40.6 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Daily MACD | -45.93 vs -36.31 signal, histogram -9.61 [2][3] |
| 50-day EMA Resistance | ~$2,475 [1][4][5][3] |
Sources (6)
- 1ETH Price Prediction: ETH Stalls Below Every Short-Term Average as MACD Momentum Flatlines - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
- 2Crypto Price Analysis, ETH, XRP, INJ, QNT and PUMP, October 23: Ethereum, XRP and Quant Lose Ground as Pump Falls 6.6%thecryptobasic.com
- 3Ethereum (ETH) cae bajo USD $2.412 el 23 de octubre de 2026: señales técnicas mantienen la cautela - DiarioBitcoindiariobitcoin.com
- 4Ethereum stays below $2,400 as geopolitical tensions trigger long liquidationsinvezz.com
- 5Key Crypto Majors Hold as Technical Support Levels Holdtradingpedia.com
- 6이더리움 | K Stock Hubkospimap.com
7. How has the price feed from CF Benchmarks' ETH-USD Real Time Index historically compared to Binance's ETH/USDT spot price during early morning trading hours?
| Prediction Market Settlement | Based on simple average of 60 CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI observations in the final minute, not Binance ETH/USDT [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| RTI vs Binance Construction | CF Benchmarks ETHUSD_RTI aggregates multiple exchange order books, while Binance ETH/USDT is a single-exchange spot market [1][7][8] |
| Target Price Source | The $2,407.06 target should not be treated as a Binance target [7][9][10] |
Sources (12)
- 1CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
- 2CME CF Ether Reference Rate & Real Time Indexcmegroup.com
- 3Ether Pricing Products Frequently Asked Questionscmegroup.com
- 4ETH 15 min · $2,344.68 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5ETH 15 min · $2,456.91 target - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6ETH 15 min · $2,359.18 target — Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7CME CF Ether-Dollar Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
- 8FAQ: CME CF Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 9Ethereum to US Dollartwelvedata.com
- 10Ethereum to US Dollartwelvedata.com
- 11lamhochit/crypto-vwap-curvegithub.com
- 12Mediummedium.com
8. Is there a verifiable source or data feed for a prediction market with a $2,407.06 ETH target for the 4:45-5:00 AM EDT window on October 23?
| Market Verification Status | No independently verifiable source for October 23, 2026, 4:45–5:00 AM EDT target [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Likely Source Family | Robinhood's ETH 15-minute prediction-market pages [1][2][3] |
| Typical Resolution Index | CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI for comparable Robinhood contracts [1][2][3] |
Sources (12)
- 115 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 2September 6, 2026: ETH 15 min · 4:30–4:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3October 5, 2026: ETH 15 min · 4:15–4:30 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 4Kalshi - Prediction Market for Trading the Futurekalshi.com
- 5ETH 15 min Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 6ETH Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 7ETH Up or Down 15m Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 8ETH Up or Down 15mpolymarket.com
- 9ETH Up or Down 5m Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 10$2,407.06 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ETfuture.news
- 11Ethereum USD (ETH-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financeca.finance.yahoo.com
- 12Ethereum (ETH) Historical Data & Price Chartcryptocop.pro
9. What does the options market data from Deribit, specifically the implied volatility and max pain for the October 23 expiration, indicate about the likelihood of a move through $2,410?
| ETH Spot Price (23 Oct 2026 expiry) | $2,402–$2,407 (Deribit) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Front-expiry ATM Implied Volatility | 42.7%–44.1% (Deribit) [1][2][3][4][5] |
| ETH Max Pain (23 Oct 2026 expiry) | $2,450 (with $255.8M–$256M expiry open interest) [1][2][3][4][5] |
Sources (8)
- 1Ethereum Options | ETH OI, Max Pain & Implied Volatility | CoinClasscoinclass.com
- 2Pandabull | ETH on Deribit Implied Volatility Surface | Forward Volatility | Put Skew Term Structurepandabull.io
- 3Crypto Options | Max Pain, DVOL, Put/Call Ratio | XOOMARxoomar.com
- 4BTC & ETH Max Pain by Expiry, Put/Call & IV Skew | Fuelmapsfuelmaps.io
- 5Ethereum Options on Deribit: ETH IV, Volume and Expiriesperpfinder.com
- 6Ethereum Options IV Surface by Expiry and Deltaswolecharts.com
- 7Ethereum max pain today, every expiry · Swiftedgeswiftedge.uk
- 8BTC & ETH Max Pain by Expiry, Put/Call & IV Skew | Fuelmapsfuelmaps.io
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: October 23, 2026
- Expiration: October 30, 2026
- Closes: October 23, 2026
Sources (10)
- 1ETH price on Oct 23, 2026 at 4am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2ETH price on Oct 23, 2026 at 4am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Buy Ethereum - ETH Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com
- 4Ethereum stays below $2,400 as geopolitical tensions trigger long liquidationsinvezz.com
- 5Crypto Daily Market Report | KuCoinkucoin.com
- 6Latest Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysiscoinmarketcap.com
- 7Ethereum (ETHUSD) Fluctuated Significantly on Oct 23: Key Variables Behind the Movetradingkey.com
- 8Top 3 Price Predictions: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC, ETH and XRP rebound as major support levels cap recent sell-offfxstreet.com
- 9Ethereum ETFs drew 14.96 million USD: What it means for the Ethereum pricead-hoc-news.de
- 10Crypto market outlook 19–23 October 2026: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin - RoboForexroboforex.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXETH15M-26OCT230445-45: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
- KXETH15M-26OCT230430-30: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
- KXETH15M-26OCT230415-15: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
- KXETH15M-26OCT230400-00: NO (Oct 23, 2026)
- KXETH15M-26OCT230345-45: YES (Oct 23, 2026)