Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026?
Short Answer
"Been By Now" is expected to reach the Billboard Hot 100 chart's Top 10 for the week of October 31, 2026, with the market pricing this at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's primary price volatility stems from conflicting forecasts for the No. 1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. The contract fell from 99% to a low of 68% after a midweek prediction from ATRL placed Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" at No. 1. This contradicted the view in a separate Kalshi market, which assigned a 71% probability to Tate McRae's "HOUSEWIFE" taking the top spot. The divergent outlooks created uncertainty and prompted a sell-off from near-certainty levels, underscored by a volume spike on October 21.
The swift recovery to 98% indicates that traders re-evaluated the significance of the No. 1 race relative to this market's specific resolution criteria. The consensus across trackers is that both "Choosin' Texas" and "HOUSEWIFE" will occupy the top two positions. The rebound suggests the market discounted the No. 1 uncertainty as irrelevant to the question of a Top 10 finish, repricing the contract to reflect the high probability that either leading song will place well within the top ten.
- Tate McRae's 'HOUSEWIFE' appeared strongly favored for the No. 1 spot.
- Morgan Wallen's 'Been By Now' shows increasing momentum as a Top 5 contender.
- Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' recently held No. 1, despite declining chart momentum.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patient Zero | 98.0% | 98.1% | Patient Zero demonstrates broad appeal, expected to sustain its top chart position. |
| hate that i made you love me | 39.0% | 25.5% | This track has limited recent activity, making a top 10 placement less likely. |
| Boston | 98.0% | 98.1% | Boston is a fan favorite, consistently appearing high on music charts. |
| expectations | 80.0% | 79.8% | The track expectations has a dedicated fanbase and consistent airplay. |
| the cure | 2.0% | 1.5% | The universal theme suggested by the title holds potential for broad audience connection. |
Current Context
Predictive markets signal Tate McRae and Ella Langley as leading contenders for the top two positions on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 31, 2026. As of October 23, 2026, the official chart was not yet published; available evidence is predictive [1][2]. Market and fan-tracker consensus favored Tate McRae's “HOUSEWIFE” and Ella Langley's “Choosin' Texas” for No. 1 and No. 2, though order varied. Kalshi's No. 1 market implied HOUSEWIFE at 71% versus Choosin' Texas at 29% [2]. An ATRL midweek prediction placed Choosin' Texas at No. 1 and HOUSEWIFE at No. 2 [3]. An October 23 US Spotify prediction market overwhelmingly favored Tate McRae's “Housewife” at roughly 99.9%, citing its record debut and sustained streaming dominance; this supports a strong Hot 100 position [4]. Billboard staff framed the late-October race around fast-rising hits and the Halloween/Christmas seasonal transition [5].
Market probabilities indicate several strong candidates for the full Top 10. The strongest market-implied Top 10 candidates on October 23 were Choosin' Texas, Been By Now, Nicole Kidman, Lies, stupid song, expectations, HOUSEWIFE, Patient Zero, Boston, Solar Eclipse, and BbY WOW. The market showed 80% or higher implied probability for inclusion for the last four listed, though exact ordering was not established [1][6]. A practical predicted Top 10, combining market inclusion probabilities and midweek commentary, is: 1 HOUSEWIFE — Tate McRae; 2 Choosin' Texas — Ella Langley; 3 expectations — Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan; 4 Been By Now — Morgan Wallen; 5 Nicole Kidman — ADÉLA; 6 Lies — Zach Bryan & Lana Del Rey; 7 stupid song — Olivia Rodrigo; 8 Patient Zero — Taylor Swift; 9 Boston — Stella Lefty; 10 Solar Eclipse — Drake & Don Toliver [1][6]. Exact positions beyond the top two carry low confidence, as the cited markets primarily priced Top-10 inclusion rather than specific rank [1][6]. Independent midweek commentary also saw Olivia Rodrigo's “expectations” as a likely Top 3 contender [3].
Recent official Billboard data reflects an earlier measurement week. The October 24 chart reflected the October 9–15 measurement week, where Dominic Fike's “Babydoll” reached his first Hot 100 Top 10 at No. 10 [7]. Billboard identified Ella Langley's “Choosin' Texas” and Taylor Swift's “Patient Zero” as major 2026 No. 1 forces [5]. On October 20, Billboard reported Believe's licensing agreement for Spotify's planned AI remixing tool, a development emphasizing artist opt-in, consent, control, compensation, and transparency [8]. Key predictive markets were viewed on October 23. Kalshi's relevant market was scheduled to close October 25, while Polymarket's No. 2 market was scheduled to end October 27 [1][2][9]. Resolution depends on the official Billboard chart publication [1][2][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 2#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 3Hot 100 | Midweek predictions (10/31): Texas #1 (x25), Housewife #2, Expectations #3 - Charts & Sales - ATRLatrl.net
- 4#1 Spotify song in the US this week? (October 23)polymarket.com
- 5Do Ella Langley or Taylor Swift Have More Weeks at No. 1 Left in 2026?billboard.com
- 6Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 7Dominic Fike, Ashe, Bruno Mars & More: Chart Highlightsbillboard.com
- 8YOUR DAILY ENTERTAINMENT NEWS UPDATEBulletinbillboard.com
- 9Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31polymarket.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: LODI WHEN
📉 October 23, 2026: 81.0pp drop
Price decreased from 86.0% to 5.0%
What happened: The prediction market for "LODI WHEN" to be in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of October 31, 2026, reportedly experienced an 81.0 percentage point drop on October 23, 2026 [1]. While "LODI WHEN" appeared as a rising contender in pre-release chart discussions, the provided web research does not establish a specific catalyst for this substantial decline [1]. No social media posts from key figures, viral narratives, or traditional news announcements directly explaining this 81-point movement were found in the available sources [1]. Therefore, the role of social media as a primary driver for this particular price movement cannot be determined from the provided information.
Outcome: hate that i made you love me
📉 October 22, 2026: 79.0pp drop
Price decreased from 85.0% to 6.0%
What happened: The supplied evidence does not establish a verified social media or traditional news catalyst for the 79.0 percentage point drop in "hate that i made you love me" for the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 market on October 22, 2026 [1]. Instead, the significant decline appears to be a market adjustment reflecting the song's consistent positioning around No. 40 on U.S. Spotify and pop-download charts as of October 23, 2026 [1][2][3]. This indicates a reassessment of the song's low likelihood of entering the Top 10 as the chart week approached. Social media activity was irrelevant to this price movement.
Outcome: Nicole Kidman
📈 October 21, 2026: 81.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 86.0%
What happened: A definitive catalyst for the reported 81.0 percentage point spike on October 21, 2026, for the "Nicole Kidman" outcome could not be verified from the provided sources [4]. However, the ADÉLA song "Nicole Kidman" exhibited significant market momentum in October 2026, primarily driven by its viral social media presence [4]. This included widespread transformation and lip-sync videos, celebrity participation, and a reported 145,306 videos using the sound with #1 Shazam placement in 61 countries as of October 22, 2026 [4][5]. This extensive social media activity appears to be the primary driver of the song's general prominence and strong positioning for the Billboard Hot 100 chart [4][5][6].
Outcome: BbY WOW
📈 October 20, 2026: 80.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 85.0%
What happened: Based on the available information, the primary driver for the 80.0 percentage point spike for "BbY WOW" on October 20, 2026, in the prediction market cannot be definitively identified. The provided evidence explicitly states that it does not verify a specific causal news or social media catalyst for this date [7][8][9][10]. While "BbY WOW" by KAROL G, Judeline, and rusowsky had documented viral and chart momentum earlier in 2026, with some discovery attributed to social media [7][8][9][10], there is no information linking specific social media activity or traditional news on October 20, 2026, directly to the market movement. Therefore, based on the provided data, social media activity appears irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular price spike.
Outcome: Babydoll
📈 October 19, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 11.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point price spike for "Babydoll" on October 19, 2026, was a surge in social media virality, specifically an organic TikTok dance trend [11][12][13][14]. TikTok search data placed the 'babydoll dance trend' at No. 1 on October 19, 2026, directly coinciding with the market movement [13]. This trend originated from singer Jamie Miller's dance clips and was amplified by celebrity participation, leading to widespread social-media spread [11][12][14]. Social media was therefore the primary driver of this market surge, as the timing of the peak TikTok trend aligns perfectly with the prediction market's price spike [13].
Sources (14)
- 1Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 2Spotify Chart – United States | Soundchartssoundcharts.com
- 3iTunes US Top 100 Song Downloads in Pop · Sajid Nawaz Khansnkhan.co.uk
- 4How to Create Viral Nicole Kidman Era Reels with AI Tools | NextReel Blognextreel.ai
- 5Nicole Kidman — ADÉLA · Rotationrotation.today
- 6Nicole Kidman gets candid with USC students - Daily Trojandailytrojan.com
- 7"BBY WOW": la colaboración inesperada que lidera la nueva era de Karol Gmixradio.co
- 8Karol G, Judeline y Rusowsky llevan "BbY WOW" al No. 1billboard.com
- 9‘BbY WOW’ imparable: El nuevo hit de Karol G que rompe récords mundialesmidiario.com
- 10“Bby WOW” de Karol G, Judeline y rusowsky escala 32 posiciones hasta el No. 4 del Billboard Colombia Hot 100 - Billboard Colombiabillboard.com.co
- 11Dominic Fike's "Babydoll" Hits The Top 10 As New Single "Pangea" Dropsstereogum.com
- 12Off Campus star collaboration 'gave me chills', says Babydoll singerbbc.com
- 13Top TikTok searches today: Oct 19, 2026 | Trends MCPtrendsmcp.ai
- 14What's The 'Babydoll Dance Trend'? How Welsh Singer Jamie Miller’s Song Took Ove... | Know Your Memetrending.knowyourmeme.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if a specified song ranks in the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 31, 2026. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if the song is not in the top 10 for that week. The maximum payout date for this market is October 25, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Been By Now | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Choosin' Texas | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| HOUSEWIFE | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Lies | $1.00 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Boston | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| Patient Zero | $1.00 | $0.45 | 98% |
| stupid song | $0.95 | $0.25 | 98% |
| Nicole Kidman | $0.95 | $0.39 | 88% |
| BbY WOW | $0.95 | $0.88 | 87% |
| expectations | $0.98 | $0.23 | 80% |
| Solar Eclipse | $0.02 | $1.00 | 80% |
| hate that i made you love me | $0.82 | $0.94 | 39% |
| Babydoll | $0.49 | $0.85 | 24% |
| LAST THING YOU NEED | $0.36 | $0.95 | 20% |
| Earrings | $0.49 | $1.00 | 19% |
| I Just Might | $0.21 | $0.98 | 16% |
| Risk It All | $0.88 | $1.00 | 12% |
| Man I Need | $0.88 | $1.00 | 11% |
| Midnight Sun | $0.88 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Quebec | $0.43 | $1.00 | 6% |
| LODI WHEN | $0.88 | $0.84 | 5% |
| ROBOT KILLED THE WORKING MAN | $0.88 | $1.00 | 3% |
| the cure | $0.62 | $1.00 | 2% |
| BE HER | $0.35 | $1.00 | 1% |
| LOVING LIFE AGAIN | $0.69 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders in this market currently view Ariana Grande's 'hate that i made you love me' (39%) and Dominic Fike's 'Babydoll' (24%) as the leading contenders to reach the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 by October 31, 2026. Although these two songs hold the highest probabilities, both have recently experienced significant drops in their 'Yes' likelihood, indicating a volatile market and a lack of strong consensus among participants. Zach Bryan's 'LODI WHEN' is considered a distant third, with only a 5% chance.
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score76Good
Market integrity is low (61), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score37High Risk
Trust score68Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How do Tate McRae's 'HOUSEWIFE' and Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' compare across the three key Billboard Hot 100 components: streaming, radio airplay, and digital sales?
| Choosin' Texas radio airplay | 33.6 million airplay audience impressions (Oct. 16–19) [1] |
|---|---|
| HOUSEWIFE Hot 100 Top 10 probability | approximately 80% (Kalshi) [1][2][3][4] |
| Choosin' Texas weeks at No. 1 on Streaming Songs | 26 weeks (as of Oct. 21 report) [5] |
Tate McRae's 'HOUSEWIFE' challenged Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' for a top spot on the Billboard Hot 100. During its debut week, "HOUSEWIFE" showed an advantage in streaming and digital sales, while "Choosin' Texas" held an overwhelming lead in radio airplay, posing a significant threat due to its radio scale and consistency [1][6]. The competition was framed by Billboard for the week of October 31, with "HOUSEWIFE" aiming to unseat "Choosin' Texas," which had been at No. 2 for the three preceding weeks and had spent 20 weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100 by August 31, 2026 [1][6][7].
'HOUSEWIFE' achieved a strong launch in streaming and digital sales. The song returned to No. 1 on Apple Music and saw its Spotify U.S. daily plays reach 2.2 million on a Wednesday, marking its best day since the previous Friday [1]. For digital sales, "HOUSEWIFE" leveraged a Victoria's Secret performance release to DSPs and iTunes, along with a temporary price reduction to 69 cents on iTunes to stimulate last-minute purchases [1]. In contrast, "Choosin' Texas" maintained consistent performance on digital streaming platforms but was surpassed by several new releases in streaming [1]. As of an October 21 report, "Choosin' Texas" had already spent 26 weeks at No. 1 on Streaming Songs [5].
'Choosin' Texas' maintained a decisive lead in radio airplay. It ranked No. 2 on Radio Songs, accumulating 33.6 million airplay audience impressions between October 16 and 19 [1]. As a newer release, "HOUSEWIFE" was still in the process of building comparable radio momentum [1]. Despite the radio disparity, prediction market data, including Kalshi, indicated an approximately 80% probability for "HOUSEWIFE" to enter the Hot 100 Top 10 [1][2][3][4].
Sources (7)
- 1Tate McRae, Olivia Rodrigo & Zach Bryan Songs Fight...billboard.com
- 2Music Charts Prediction Markets & Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Music Prediction Markets & Streaming Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 4Will HOUSEWIFE be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 durin… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' Matches Mariah Carey's 26...wxbm.com
- 6Do Ella Langley or Taylor Swift Have More Weeks at No. 1...billboard.com
- 7Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' No. 1 on Hot 100 for 20th...billboard.com
7. What specific streaming data and sales figures from the Oct. 16–22 tracking week support the market consensus favoring Tate McRae's 'HOUSEWIFE' for the No. 1 spot?
| Prediction market No. 1 likelihood | 72 73% (Kalshi) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Peak Spotify U.S. daily streams | 6.348 million on Oct. 20 [5][6] |
| Weekly streaming forecast | Approximately 20 million streams [5][7] |
Prediction markets strongly favored Tate McRae's 'Housewife' for the No. 1 spot. Consensus indicated high confidence for the song to achieve the No. 1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated October 31, 2026, primarily due to its strong streaming performance during the October 16–22 tracking week [1][2][3][4]. On Kalshi, "Housewife" was priced at approximately 72–73% to reach No. 1 and 63–68% for a debut at No. 1, with a 99% probability for a top two finish [1][2][3][4].
'Housewife' demonstrated robust streaming performance throughout the tracking week. During October 16–22, 2026, the song dominated major streaming services for several days [5][6]. It recorded its highest daily total on October 20, achieving 6.348 million Spotify U.S. streams [5][6]. Forecasts estimated the song would accumulate approximately 20 million streams for the entire week, positioning it as a strong contender for McRae's first solo No. 1 on Billboard Streaming Songs [5][7]. Further underscoring its momentum, "Housewife" also debuted at No. 1 on Australia's ARIA Singles Chart on October 23 [8].
The market's outlook relied primarily on streaming, lacking clear sales figures. While an early forecast suggested 2.43 million in another consumption metric, the specific units were not sufficiently clear to confirm this as a verified sales figure [9]. Consequently, the favorable outlook for "Housewife" was predominantly based on its strong streaming lead, rather than a definitive published pure-sales total [2]. The main competitor, Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas," was generally anticipated to secure the No. 2 position instead of challenging for the top spot [1][2].
Sources (9)
- 1Music Charts Prediction Markets & Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 2Music Prediction Markets & Streaming Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3"Housewife" by Tate McRae · Billboard Hot 100 rank (Oct...kalshi.com
- 4Will HOUSEWIFE be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 durin… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Tate McRae, Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan and Zach...yahoo.com
- 6Talk of the Chartsx.com
- 7"Tate McRae is challenging for her first ever solo #1 on...x.com
- 8Fontaines D.C. and Tate McRae land first chart toppersaria.com.au
- 9Tate McRae's “Housewife” is currently in a close race for a...instagram.com
8. What potential viral moments or promotional pushes could propel 'expectations' by Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan into the Top 3 before the tracking week concludes?
| Market-implied Billboard Hot 100 Position | No. 3–4 for the week of Oct 31, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Probability for No. 1–2 | About 1% [1][2] |
| Condition for Top-3 Finish | Requires a catalyst before the tracking week concludes on Thursday [1][2][3] |
Attaining a Top 3 position requires a significant catalyst this week. "expectations" by Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan is currently projected to rank around No. 3–4 on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 31, 2026, with approximately a 1% chance of reaching No. 1 or 2 [1][2]. Securing a Top 3 finish necessitates a substantial promotional push before the tracking week concludes on Thursday, October 29, rather than relying solely on organic word-of-mouth growth [1][2][3].
Several promotional strategies could propel the song into the Top 3. The most plausible viral or promotional paths involve a short-form challenge centered on Chappell Roan’s "classic LA behavior" lyric or the repeated "big expectations" hook [4][5][6][3]. Additionally, Rodrigo and Roan could jointly post or repost fan reaction, duet, or reenactment videos, or engage in a surprise live performance, award-show appearance, late-night appearance, or an unannounced pop-up that generates immediate clips [3]. Other possibilities include the swift release of a second edit, remix, acoustic version, or an alternate vocal spotlight, or a digital-download or playlist activation via a retailer or streaming platform [3].
Promotional success relies on rapid conversion to streams and sales. These potential scenarios are not confirmed announcements and would only be effective if they quickly translate into U.S. streams and sales within the remaining days of the October 23–29 tracking week [4][5][6][3]. Given the competitive environment and the song's current concentration at No. 3–4, a genuine viral clip combined with coordinated artist amplification is crucial to elevate it into the Top 3 [1][2][3][7][8]. Conversely, a routine promotional post or modest playlisting is unlikely to generate enough incremental volume, despite the collaboration already having meaningful streaming infrastructure [3][5][9].
Sources (9)
- 1"expectations" by Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan · Billboard Hot 100 rank (Oct 31, 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 2Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of O… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Billboard Hot 100en.wikipedia.org
- 4Olivia Rodrigo and Chappell Roan Release 'Expectations'...people.com
- 5expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)youtube.com
- 6Olivia Rodrigo / Chappell Roan: “expectations” Track Reviewpitchfork.com
- 7Music Charts Odds on Kalshi Today: 148 Open Markets | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
- 8#1 Spotify song in the US this week? (October 23): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 9Olivia Rodrigo - expectations (feat. Chappell Roan)open.spotify.com
9. How reliable have midweek prediction models from sources like ATRL been in forecasting the final Top 10 during recent competitive Billboard chart races?
| Midweek Prediction Usefulness | Qualitative usefulness as directional signals [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Oct. 31, 2026 Market Prediction (ATRL) | Choosin' Texas #1, Housewife #2, expectations #3 [1][4] |
| Data for Historical Accuracy Calculation | Not available (complete paired midweek-versus-final Top-10 lists) [1][5][6][7] |
Midweek prediction models offer qualitative directional signals, not exact forecasts. These models, particularly from sources like ATRL, are useful for indicating likely incumbents and the top few positions, rather than providing high-confidence exact-rank forecasts [1][2][3]. The available evidence supports this qualitative utility but does not allow for a quantified accuracy percentage [1][2][3]. A reliable calculation of historical hit rates is currently not possible because available indexed snippets do not expose complete paired midweek-versus-final Top-10 lists [1][5][6][7].
Recent specific predictions show qualitative utility, but lack full verification. For the Oct. 31, 2026 market, ATRL's midweek thread explicitly projected "Choosin' Texas" at number one, "Housewife" at number two, and "Expectations" at number three [1][4]. However, a final accuracy score for this market cannot yet be calculated as it was still live as of Oct. 23 [1][4]. While the resolved markets for Oct. 17 and Oct. 24 provide their final Top-10 sets, the specific corresponding midweek predictions from ATRL for those weeks are not available to allow for a direct comparison [2][3]. The ATRL search record indicates repeated weekly midweek and final prediction threads from July through October 2026, including specific dates such as July 25, Aug. 8, Oct. 24, and Oct. 31 [1][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Hot 100 | Midweek predictions (10/31): Texas #1 (x25), Housewife #2, Expectations #3 - Charts & Sales - ATRLatrl.net
- 2Top 10 on Billboard Hot 100 chart for… Oct 17, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
- 3Top 10 on Billboard Hot 100 chart for… Oct 24, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
- 4Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5Hot 100 | Midweek predictions (10/24/26): P0 #1 (x3), Dracula #5, Nicole Kidman #6 - Charts & Sales - ATRLatrl.net
- 6Midweek predictions (7/25/26): Texas #1 (x14), IKIIKY #2,...atrl.net
- 7Hot 100 | Final predictions (8/8/26): Texas #1 (x16), Been By Now #2, IKIIKY #3 - Charts & Sales - ATRLatrl.net
10. How does the chart momentum of Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' compare to that of Morgan Wallen's 'Been By Now' as potential Top 5 contenders?
| Patient Zero Chart Position (Oct 24, 2026) | No. 1 for 3 consecutive weeks [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Been By Now Chart Position (Oct 24, 2026) | No. 4 [3][4][5] |
| Patient Zero Streaming Decline | From 34.5 million (Sep 25–Oct 1) to 12.8 million (Oct 9–15) [1][2] |
Taylor Swift's "Patient Zero" maintains top chart position with declining momentum. As of the October 24, 2026 chart, "Patient Zero" held the No. 1 spot for a third consecutive week, while Morgan Wallen’s “Been By Now” was positioned at No. 4 [1][2][3][4][5]. "Patient Zero" is considered a stronger contender for the Top 5 based on its No. 1 rank, though its declining streaming metrics introduce a downside risk. Conversely, "Been By Now" appears to be a safer, more persistent play [1][3][6].
"Patient Zero" shows significant streaming decline despite its No. 1 rank. Despite its sustained chart-topping position, the song exhibited weakening consumption momentum. Official U.S. streams for "Patient Zero" fell from 34.5 million during its September 25–October 1 debut week to 17.4 million by October 2–8, and further decreased to 12.8 million in the October 9–15 period [1][2]. This notable decline creates a downside risk for its continued No. 1 position, even considering its current high chart ceiling [1][3][6].
Morgan Wallen’s "Been By Now" demonstrates stable, persistent chart performance. "Been By Now" maintained a stable upper-tier run, holding the No. 4 position on the October 24, 2026 Hot 100, following previous placements at No. 3 and No. 4 [3][4][5]. With a peak of No. 4 and 12 weeks on the chart, its performance suggests resilience rather than recent upward momentum. This consistent No. 3–4 pattern indicates that "Been By Now" is a reliable and persistent play, likely to remain within the No. 4–5 range [1][3][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' No. 1 on Hot 100 for 3rd Weekbillboard.com
- 2Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' No. 1 on Hot 100 for 2nd Weekbillboard.com
- 3Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 Countdown For October 24th, 2026billboard.com
- 4Morgan Wallen | Biography, Music & Newsbillboard.com
- 5Morgan Wallen places three songs on US Billboard Hot...ad-hoc-news.de
- 6Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of Friday, October 23, 2026, the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 31, 2026, remained unpublished, with the latest official chart dated October 24, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets were open and scheduled to resolve upon the October 31 chart's publication, with “Housewife” by Tate McRae showing a 71% probability for No. 1 and “Choosin’ Texas” by Ella Langley at 29% on Kalshi [1][2][4]. Other leading Hot 100 top-10 candidates included “Choosin’ Texas” (99%), “Been By Now” (99%), “Nicole Kidman” (99%), “Lies” (99%), and “stupid song” (98%) [1]. This delay contributed to market uncertainty [1][2][4].
Near-term bullish catalysts included New Music Friday on October 23, which saw album releases from LISA, John Legend, Michael Kiwanuka, Anderson.Paak and Cordae, My Chemical Romance, Tony Iommi, and Jazzy [5][6][7]. Additional releases on October 30 from artists such as Dominic Fike, Nickelback, Editors, Queens of the Stone Age, and Chloe Qisha also presented potential upside [5][7]. Event catalysts around the chart week included Olivia Rodrigo’s scheduled Columbus arena performances on October 29–30 and Doja Cat’s Las Vegas Tour Ma Vie performance on October 31; these could support attention and streaming [8][9].
High prediction-market prices for "Housewife" and "Choosin’ Texas," along with incumbent chart strength and fresh-release or promotional activity, served as bullish signals [1][2][4]. Conversely, sharp market declines were observed for "Patient Zero," "Boston," "Babydoll," and “hate that i made you love me,” indicating bearish momentum for those tracks [1][2][4].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 14, 2026
- Closes: October 26, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 2#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 3Billboard Hot 100™billboard.com
- 4Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31polymarket.com
- 5New album releases 2026: Dates for Fontatines D.C., Kings of Leon and more | Official Chartsofficialcharts.com
- 6New Music Friday: Anderson.Paak & Cordae, LISA, John Legend, Michael Kiwanuka, Amy Winehouse, My Chemical Romance and more | Official Chartsofficialcharts.com
- 7October 2026 Album Releases, Music Releasesalbumoftheyear.org
- 8Olivia Rodrigo returning to Columbus with two arena performancesnbc4i.com
- 9MGM Resorts Newsroom - Press Releasesnewsroom.mgmresorts.com
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26OCT24-YOU: NO (Oct 19, 2026)
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26OCT24-BAC: NO (Oct 19, 2026)
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26OCT24-DOG: NO (Oct 19, 2026)
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26OCT24-PLA: NO (Oct 19, 2026)
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26OCT24-ROB: NO (Oct 19, 2026)
