Quarterfinals: Matches to go to Penalties
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect at least one of the quarterfinal matches to go to penalties, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~46h): Our model led a 21.3pp decrease for 2+ matches, flipping the edge as the market moved less.
- The market led a 34.0pp drop in 1+ matches probability, tracked by our model, widening the edge.
- Overall edge widened to 2.9pp (+2.8pp total) and confidence score increased by 1.0pp.
- Betting markets and Opta data suggest higher odds for at least one shootout.
- Probability for two or more shootouts remains significantly low per current analysis.
- Three or four quarterfinal penalty shootouts are exceedingly unlikely to occur.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
As of July 11, 2026, two quarterfinal matches have concluded, with two more scheduled. France defeated Morocco 2-0 [^][^][^][^]. Spain secured a 2-1 victory over Belgium [^][^][^][^]. The remaining quarterfinal fixtures include Norway vs. England and Argentina vs. Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 and July 12 [^][^][^].
A previous knockout match was decided by a penalty shootout. In the Round of 16, Switzerland advanced to the quarterfinals by defeating Colombia 4-3 in a penalty shootout following a 0-0 draw [^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets, including Polymarket, track match outcomes such as winners and the frequency of penalty shootouts in the knockout stages of the FIFA World Cup 2026 [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has trended consistently downward from an opening price of 61.0% to a current 30.0%. The price action has been event-driven and highly volatile, trading within a wide range of 20.0% to 96.0%. The primary drivers of price movement were the conclusion of the Round of 16 and the subsequent outcomes of the quarterfinal matches. An initial drop of 34.0 percentage points occurred on July 3, followed by a sharp spike to near 89.0% on July 7, which context suggests was based on a misunderstanding of the tournament schedule. This peak was short-lived.
The most significant repricing began on July 8, when the contract fell 36.0 percentage points after the official quarterfinal schedule was set. This allowed participants to assess specific matchups instead of abstract possibilities. The price continued its descent with consecutive drops on July 9 and July 10 as quarterfinal matches concluded without going to penalties. Specifically, the results of the France vs. Morocco (2-0) and Spain vs. Belgium (2-1) matches directly reduced the number of remaining opportunities for a penalty shootout, driving the probability down to its current level.
Total volume of 7,571 contracts indicates active participation and price discovery, particularly around key dates. The chart suggests market sentiment began with a high expectation for penalty shootouts. This sentiment was quickly and decisively revised downward as concrete information became available, first with the schedule and then with match results. The market has efficiently incorporated new information, with each concluded match causing a direct and rational repricing of the contract's probability.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 1+ matches
📉 July 10, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 45.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 13.0 percentage point drop in the "Quarterfinals: Matches to go to Penalties" market was the actual outcome of the FIFA World Cup quarterfinal matches on July 10, 2026. Both games, France vs. Morocco (2-0) and Spain vs. Belgium (2-1), were decided in regular time, meaning no matches went to a penalty shootout [^][^][^]. This information, confirmed by traditional news reports, directly negated the "1+ matches" outcome for the day, causing the market price to decline. No social media activity was identified as a primary driver, making it irrelevant to this market movement.
📉 July 08, 2026: 36.0pp drop
Price decreased from 94.0% to 58.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 36.0 percentage point drop on July 8, 2026, was the release of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals schedule. The Round of 16 concluded on July 7, 2026, which then set the quarterfinal matchups [^][^][^][^][^]. This official news allowed market participants to re-evaluate the likelihood of "1+ matches" going to penalties based on the specific teams involved, leading to a significantly decreased expectation for such an outcome. No relevant social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as a driver for this price movement. Social media was irrelevant to this price movement.
Outcome: 2+ matches
📉 July 09, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 23.0% to 2.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 21.0 percentage point drop was the real-world outcome of the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal matches on July 9, 2026. On this date, no quarterfinal matches, including the France vs. Morocco game which ended 2-0 in regulation time, proceeded to a penalty shootout [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This definitive lack of penalty shootouts directly contradicted the "2+ matches" outcome, causing the price to drop as the market reconciled with the factual results [^][^]. Social media activity regarding player popularity, such as Erling Haaland, was irrelevant to the market's specific outcome of matches going to penalties [^][^][^][^].
📈 July 07, 2026: 29.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 50.0%
What happened: The 29.0 percentage point spike in the "Quarterfinals: Matches to go to Penalties" market for "2+ matches" on July 7, 2026, appears to be primarily driven by a significant misunderstanding of the 2026 FIFA World Cup schedule among market participants. Research indicates that no quarterfinal matches were played on July 7, 2026; the first quarterfinal matches were scheduled for July 11, 2026 [^][^]. While one Round of 16 match, Switzerland vs. Colombia, did go to penalties on July 7, 2026, this was not a quarterfinal game and thus irrelevant to the market's specific premise [^][^][^]. No specific social media activity propagating a viral narrative about two quarterfinal matches going to penalties on this date was identified. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or a general accelerant to a misinformed market rather than a specific primary driver.
Outcome: 3+ matches
📈 July 06, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 6.0% to 16.0%
What happened: No quarterfinal matches went to penalties on July 6, 2026, nor were they scheduled for that date [^][^]. Consequently, there is no evidence of a social media spike related to soccer penalty shootouts specifically for July 6, 2026, that could drive the market movement [^][^]. While the 2026 World Cup did feature a trend of frequent penalty shootouts in its knockout stages and intensive media coverage followed these outcomes [^][^], this broader context does not explain a specific 10.0 percentage point spike for quarterfinal matches on a day they were not played [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Contract details not available.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
Prediction markets and predictive models for the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals suggest a significant probability of matches being decided by penalty shootouts, with some platforms estimating 35-40% of knockout matches could go to them [^][^][^][^]. Historically, nine of the last 10 FIFA World Cup matches reaching extra time have been decided by penalty shootouts, though the 2026 tournament has seen a record low penalty conversion rate of 66.1% [^][^][^]. Market participants note that while prices reflect implied probabilities, penalty shootouts are high-volatility events where crowd sentiment and psychological pressure can cause significant price swings and mispricing opportunities [^][^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
1+ matchesPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
2+ matchesTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
3+ matchesTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
4 matchesTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 11, 2026
6. What is the historical frequency of penalty shootouts in FIFA World Cup quarterfinal matches since the tournament's expansion in 1998?
| Quarterfinal matches to shootout (1998-2022) | 42.9% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Total quarterfinal matches (1998-2022) | 28 matches [^][^][^] |
| Quarterfinal shootouts (1998-2022) | 12 matches [^][^][^] |
Penalty shootouts frequently decide FIFA World Cup quarterfinal matches since 1998. Since the FIFA World Cup expanded to a 32-team format in 1998, a significant portion of quarterfinal matches have been decided by penalty shootouts. Between 1998 and 2022, approximately 42.9% of these matches concluded in a shootout [^][^][^]. Across seven FIFA World Cup tournaments in this period, 12 out of a total of 28 quarterfinal matches were resolved this way [^][^][^].
7. How do Argentina's offensive metrics in the 2026 World Cup compare against Switzerland's defensive record, and what does this imply for the likelihood of a draw?
| Match Date/Location | July 11, 2026, Kansas City Stadium [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Argentina Win Probability (90 min) | 57.7% [^] |
| Switzerland Win Probability (90 min) | 18.0% [^] |
Argentina is favored, but a draw remains a significant possibility. The 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal between Argentina and Switzerland is scheduled for July 11, 2026, at Kansas City Stadium [^][^][^]. The Opta supercomputer assigns a 57.7% probability of Argentina winning in normal time, compared to Switzerland's 18.0% probability, with a 24.3% chance of a draw in normal time [^]. This matchup, contrasting Argentina's high-scoring offense with Switzerland's disciplined, penalty-tested defense, suggests a potentially tightly contested match, increasing the statistical likelihood of the game extending into extra time or penalties [^][^].
Argentina has consistently demonstrated a formidable high-scoring offensive profile. Their performance in the 2026 World Cup includes a 3-0 group-stage win over Algeria and a 3-1 victory against Jordan [^][^][^][^][^]. In the knockout rounds, Argentina has maintained strong offensive form, scoring three goals in each of their last two matches to secure narrow 3-2 victories against Cabo Verde in the Round of 32 and Egypt in the Round of 16 [^][^][^][^][^].
Switzerland's disciplined defense has proven effective in the knockout stages. They advanced to the quarterfinals by defeating Algeria 2-0 in the Round of 32 [^][^][^]. In the Round of 16, Switzerland held Colombia to a 0-0 draw before winning 4-3 on penalties, showcasing a defensive approach that has relied on strong shot-stopper performance and organized clearance-based management [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This robust defensive posture, when faced with Argentina's potent offense, further contributes to the increased statistical likelihood of the game extending into extra time or penalties [^][^].
8. What tactical adjustments or key player fitness issues for England or Norway could serve as a catalyst for their quarterfinal match ending in a draw?
| Draw Probability (regular time) | 24.7% [^] |
|---|---|
| England Suspension | Jarell Quansah [^] |
| England Injury Concern | Declan Rice (hamstring and calf issues) [^] |
A draw in the quarterfinal is a distinct possibility. The Opta supercomputer predicts a 24.7% probability of the England vs. Norway 2026 World Cup quarterfinal ending in a draw after regular time [^]. This outcome is attributed to England's potential tactical adjustments, influenced by player availability, and the fundamental differences in the tactical approaches of both teams [^]. The supercomputer's simulations indicate a high probability of a competitive, tight match, with a stalemate occurring in nearly a quarter of all simulated scenarios [^][^].
England faces significant player availability and suspension concerns. England's tactical setup is notably constrained by defender Jarell Quansah's suspension and ongoing injury management for midfielder Declan Rice, who has been battling hamstring and calf issues throughout the tournament [^]. Although Declan Rice, Marc Guehi, and Reece James have returned to training, Rice's persistent fitness issues could directly influence England's tactical decisions [^][^]. Further compounding these issues, Jude Bellingham, Marc Guehi, and Nico O'Reilly risk suspension for the semifinals if they receive a yellow card in this match, potentially prompting more cautious play that could contribute to a stalemate [^].
Norway's direct play contrasts with England's possession-based approach. Norway has successfully managed a recurring sickness bug that previously affected several players and staff, with all players now reported healthy during their final preparations [^][^]. Norway's characteristic high-physicality, direct playstyle, strongly driven by Erling Haaland's form, stands in contrast to England's more possession-based approach [^][^][^]. This dynamic, particularly if England adopts a defensive caution aimed at neutralizing Haaland's threat, could significantly increase the likelihood of the match ending in a stalemate [^][^][^].
9. What do betting market odds indicate about the relative probability of the Argentina vs. Switzerland match going to penalties compared to the Norway vs. England match?
| Argentina vs. Switzerland Penalty Probability | 18% [^] |
|---|---|
| Norway vs. England Penalty Probability | 18.2% [^][^][^] |
| Opta Supercomputer Draw Likelihood (Argentina vs. Switzerland) | 24.3% [^][^] |
Betting markets suggest similar penalty shootout probabilities for both matches. The Argentina vs. Switzerland and Norway vs. England 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal matches, both scheduled for July 11, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^], show very close odds for proceeding to penalties. The implied probability for the Argentina vs. Switzerland match going to a penalty shootout is 18% [^]. For the Norway vs. England match, the implied probability is approximately 18.2%, based on 9/2 odds from traditional sportsbooks [^][^][^].
Supercomputer simulations further reinforce the similar likelihood of a draw. The Opta supercomputer predicts a draw after 90 minutes in 24.3% of simulations for the Argentina vs. Switzerland quarter-final [^] and 24.7% for the Norway vs. England match [^]. These probabilities for a draw in normal time are considered the primary indicator for a match potentially going to extra time and subsequently penalties, underscoring a very similar likelihood for both fixtures to reach a shootout [^][^].
10. How do the career penalty-saving records of the primary goalkeepers for Switzerland and Argentina compare head-to-head?
| Gregor Kobel Penalty Record | 10 saves, 47 non-saved penalties [^] |
|---|---|
| Emiliano Martinez Penalty Saves | 9 saves [^] |
| Primary Goalkeeper Status | Gregor Kobel for Switzerland (as of July 11, 2026) [^][^][^]; Emiliano Martinez for Argentina (2026 FIFA World Cup) [^][^][^] |
Gregor Kobel has a slightly higher number of career penalty saves compared to Emiliano Martinez. As the primary goalkeeper for Switzerland, Kobel has a career record that includes 10 penalty saves and 47 non-saved penalties [^]. In contrast, Emiliano Martinez, the primary goalkeeper for Argentina, has a recorded career total of 9 penalty saves [^].
Both goalkeepers serve as their national team's primary choice for the upcoming World Cup. As of July 11, 2026, Gregor Kobel became Switzerland's primary goalkeeper following Yann Sommer's international retirement [^][^][^]. Emiliano Martinez remains Argentina's primary goalkeeper for the 2026 FIFA World Cup [^][^][^]. However, a comprehensive head-to-head comparison of their full career penalty-saving records, including save percentages, is limited. This is primarily because the total number of penalties Martinez has faced is not consistently provided, and his statistics are often tracked inconsistently across various analytical tools [^][^][^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Prediction markets for July 19, 2026, typically focus on the World Cup winner or final match results [^] [^] [^] . of Matches Decided by Penalty Shootout - Polymarket" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. Quarterfinal prediction markets typically resolve based on regulation time results, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 19, 2026
- Closes: July 19, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinals concluded between July 9 and July 11, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The FIFA World Cup Final is scheduled for July 19, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets for July 19, 2026, typically focus on the World Cup winner or final match results [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Quarterfinal prediction markets typically resolve based on regulation time results, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts [^] [^] .
14. Related News
Last updated: July 11, 2026, 13:13 UTC
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15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 18 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXWCKOPENALTIES-26R16-8: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
- KXWCKOPENALTIES-26R16-7: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
- KXWCKOPENALTIES-26R16-6: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
- KXWCKOPENALTIES-26R16-5: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
- KXWCKOPENALTIES-26R16-4: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
