Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike before 2028 surged by 10 percentage points on July 30, 2026, reaching an 80% implied probability. This shift reflects growing market sensitivity to the FOMC's 2026 rate projections, which have increasingly diverged from previous consensus. Probability across the relevant contract distribution consolidated toward earlier-than-expected hikes, with shorter-term contracts also seeing steady gains. This upward momentum suggests traders are pricing in a more hawkish path for interest rates, likely reacting to ongoing inflationary pressures and persistent economic data that challenge the baseline of a prolonged pause or imminent cuts.
Market Distribution: Contract: Before 2028 | Prob: 81% | Change: +10.0pp Contract: Before July 2027 | Prob: 74% | Change: +2.0pp Contract: Before 2027 | Prob: 67% | Change: +4.0pp
