As the 2026 FIFA World Cup progresses into the high-stakes quarterfinal stage, traders have significantly lowered their expectations for more hat-tricks in the tournament. In Thursday's session (July 09, 2026), the implied probability of four or more total hat-tricks being scored plummeted 19 percentage points to 22%. The sharp repricing reflects a broader sentiment shift as the tournament moves from its high-scoring group stage—where all three of this year's hat-tricks occurred—to the more defensively disciplined knockout rounds.
The move indicates traders are weighing the increased difficulty of scoring against elite competition in the final eight matches. The contract for "4+ hattricks" (KXWCHATTRICK-26-4), which traded at 43 cents on the dollar earlier in the week, fell to 24 cents before settling at 22 cents. This suggests the market now sees roughly a one-in-five chance of at least one more hat-trick being scored before a champion is crowned.
Distribution Analysis
| Outcome | Current Prob | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4+ hattricks | 22% | -19.0pp | 1,116 |
| 5+ hattricks | 12% | -7.0pp | 521 |
Net: Both tracked contracts declined on 1,636 total volume, signaling reduced expectations for more hat-tricks as the tournament progresses.
What's Driving the Shift
The significant decline in probability across contracts for a high number of hat-tricks is primarily driven by the tournament's structural shift into its final, most competitive phase.
Knockout Stage Scarcity: The tournament is now in the quarterfinals, where matchups are tighter, and defensive strategies are paramount. Historically, hat-tricks are far more common in the group stage, often in lopsided games. While 19 hat-tricks have been scored in the knockout stages throughout World Cup history, this represents a fraction of the 57 total hat-tricks recorded across all 23 tournaments. The market appears to be pricing in this historical precedent.
Group Stage Flurry Concludes: The 2026 tournament has already seen three hat-tricks, a figure that is above the historical average of 2.3 per tournament. However, all three came during group play: from Argentina's Lionel Messi against Algeria, Canada's Jonathan David against Qatar, and France's Ousmane Dembélé against Norway. With the group stage now complete, the opportunities for such dominant individual performances have diminished.
Market Context
With three hat-tricks officially recorded, the "4+ hattricks" contract requires just one more to be scored in the remaining eight matches (four quarterfinals, two semifinals, third-place playoff, and final) to resolve to "Yes." The current 22% probability assigned by traders suggests a belief that the scoring pace will cool considerably.
The 2026 tournament has already surpassed the total number of hat-tricks seen in the 2018 (two) and 2014 (two) editions. It has also avoided the distinction of the 2006 World Cup in Germany, which remains the only tournament in history not to feature a single hat-trick. While the current tournament has been fruitful for goal-scorers, the market action suggests it is unlikely to challenge the all-time record of eight hat-tricks set at the 1954 World Cup in Switzerland.
What to Watch
The market's outcome hinges on the remaining eight games of the tournament. The performance of top offensive players will be critical, particularly those with a history of big-game performances, such as France's Kylian Mbappé, who became just the second man to record a hat trick in a World Cup final in 2022. The contracts in this series, traded on the Kalshi exchange, are set to close on July 27, 2026, with settlement based on official statistics from FIFA and ESPN.
