Short Answer

SOL reaching $91.3508 between 4:00 PM EST and 4:15 PM EST on November 2 is a toss-up, priced by the market at 52.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Target price $91.3508 appears likely, given stability indicated by short-term prediction markets.
  • Significant bearish pressure, however, emerged from spot SOL exchange-traded fund outflows.
  • Elevated volatility around 4 PM EST and reduced liquidity also impacted trader sentiment.

Current Context

Recent ETF outflows and prediction markets suggest mixed near-term SOL expectations. Spot SOL ETFs recorded net outflows of $71.47 million in the week prior to November 2, 2026, the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch [1]. CoinGecko's Solana prediction data for the November 2-8, 2026, window indicates an 86.5% chance of SOL reaching $90.00 and a 57.5% chance for $100.00 [2]. In contrast, Robinhood's Solana prediction markets for November 2 showed high probabilities for SOL remaining above nearby levels, with 99% for $89.75-or-above at 3 PM EST and 99% for $89-or-above at 5 PM EST [3]. A specific Robinhood 15-minute contract for November 2 implied $91.6150 or above for 3:30–3:45 PM EST [4]. A Public.com market for November 2 around 3 PM EST estimated an 87% probability for $91.25-or-above at contract resolution [5].
Longer-horizon forecasts cite the Alpenglow upgrade as a key catalyst. Solana’s Alpenglow consensus overhaul, targeting approximately 150ms finality, is identified as a fundamental driver in longer-term price forecasts [6][7]. This occurs as the broader market considers external factors. Solana weekly recap material noted Binance reported unauthorized withdrawals of about $6.3 billion on October 30, 2026 [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  2. 2Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2026 | CoinGeckocoingecko.com
  3. 3Buy Solana - SOL Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com
  4. 4November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:30–3:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 3pm EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Solana (SOL) Price Prediction For 2026 & Beyondcoinmarketcap.com
  7. 7Solana Price Prediction Ahead of Tomorrow’s Alpenglow Launch: Is $90 or $110 Next?coingape.com
  8. 8Solana Weekly Recap (November 1, 2026): Binance Incident, Agave v4.4.0, Ondo Portfolios | SOLANA·HUBsolanahub.de

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "YES" if the official and final value of SOL at 4:15 PM EST on November 2 is greater than $91.3508, and "NO" if it is equal to or less than this target price. The official final value is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before the 4:15 PM EST expiration.

Market Discussion

Although a specific market matching "SOL 15 min · $91.3508 target" was not directly corroborated [6-15], prediction markets like Kalshi do offer 15-minute Solana target-price contracts, with one documented contract using a $63.5582 target [1]. Polymarket also lists short-horizon SOL markets, though its 15-minute format generally resolves Up/Down relative to an opening price, such as $91.00 [2]. On November 2, 2026, the $91.3508 target was slightly below Solana's approximate spot price of $91.97 [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsol15m/solana-15-minutes/kxsol15m-26jun101545kalshi.com
  2. 2Solanapolymarket.com
  3. 3Crypto Market | X4Tx4t.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score62Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

5. How is Solana's price volatility on major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance expected to behave around the 4:00 PM EST U.S. market close on November 2?

Intraday Trading Range (Nov 2, 2026)$90.83 to $95.89 [1][2][3][4][5]
Annualized Volatility (Compass Index)87.12% [6]
Prediction Market Target (Nov 2, 2026)$91.3508 [1][2][3][4][5]
Solana's price volatility on November 2, 2026, was elevated, especially around the 4:00 PM EST U.S. market close. This behavior was consistent with peaks observed during U.S. equity trading hours, a period often associated with a transition where crypto assets may shift from equity-correlated to gold-correlated behavior [1][7][8][9]. On this date, SOL experienced a wide intraday trading range of approximately $90.83 to $95.89. Late afternoon prices were generally within the $91.50–$94.50 range, notably higher than the $91.3508 prediction market target for the period [1][2][3][4][5].
Volatility around the 4:00 PM EST close was elevated but moderate. Crypto volatility and trading volume typically peak during U.S. equity trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET), with the 13:00–17:00 UTC window specifically showing higher hourly trading volume and median 15-minute absolute price moves [7]. The Compass 3:45 PM–4:00 PM NY TWAP Solana Index indicated an annualized volatility of 87.12%, suggesting elevated but not extreme volatility immediately prior to the 4:00 PM ET close [6]. While historical events have shown amplified volatility for crypto assets during risk-off scenarios at the 4:00 PM ET close, the price movement observed on November 2, 2026, was more moderate, approximately 2.3–2.9% [10][8][11][5].
Prediction markets on Solana showed a high likelihood of resolution for certain targets. SOL 15-minute prediction markets are resolved based on the simple average of 60 seconds of a Real Time Index before the end of the 15-minute window, not on spot prices from exchanges [12]. For the 4:00–4:15 PM EST window on November 2, 2026, the specific prediction market target of $91.3508 was well below the prevailing price of approximately $91.80–$94.40 [12][5]. This significant difference made a "YES" resolution highly likely for that target [12][5]. However, recent resolutions on the same date for other SOL 15-minute targets in the $94 range had shown mixed outcomes [13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Solana USD (SOL-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  3. 3SOLUSD Markets: Exchanges & Key Data — TradingViewtradingview.com
  4. 4Solana (SOL) price in November 2022 — Monthly historycrypto-archive.com
  5. 5Solana (SOLUSD) Is up 1.02% on Nov 2: Key Drivers to Watchtradingkey.com
  6. 6Compass 3.45pm - 4pm NY TWAP Solana Index | Compass Financial Technologiescompassft.com
  7. 7what is the best time to do a day trade on solana | AIME by AInvestainvest.com
  8. 8BTC Correlation Patterns: Equities During US Hours, Gold After Hours – Trading Analysis by Skew Δ | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  9. 9Bitcoin gains when US markets are closed - The Cryptonomisten.cryptonomist.ch
  10. 10S&P 500 Experiences 2nd Largest Daily Point Loss: April 4, 2025 Stock Crash Analysis and Crypto Market Impact | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  11. 11Kobeissi Letter Highlights Unusual Market Moves: Premium Analysis for Crypto Traders Heading Into Weekend | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  12. 12November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:15–3:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  13. 13Kalshi Markets Resolved in 2026 (4) | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  14. 14Kalshi Resolved Markets Archive | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

6. What do implied probabilities from short-term prediction markets on Robinhood and Public.com indicate for Solana's price stability around the $91 mark on November 2?

General Price ExpectationSolana (SOL) expected to trade in the low-to-mid $90s on November 2 [1][2][3][4]
Polymarket Probability above $9098.2% implied probability for SOL above $90.00 (Polymarket, November 2 noon ET) [3][4]
Robinhood End-of-Day Expectation76% implied probability for SOL at $93 or above (Robinhood, November 2, 5 PM EST) [5]
Solana prediction markets largely indicated stability around the $91 mark. On November 2, prediction markets on platforms like Robinhood and Public.com generally indicated an expectation for Solana (SOL) to trade in the low-to-mid $90s, with strong confidence for it to remain above $90, and near-certainty above $89 [1][2][3][4]. Robinhood's 15-minute prediction markets showed SOL hovering tightly around the $91 mark, with specific windows like 3:15–3:30 PM EST pricing '$91.5352 or above' at 88% and 2:45–3:00 PM EST pricing '$90.9368 or above' at 93% [6][1][7][8][2]. Complementing this, Gemini's market for November 2 showed an 89% probability for '$90 or above' and 82% for '$91 or above,' while Polymarket traders estimated Solana's price at approximately $93.94 at noon ET, with a 98.2% chance of SOL being above $90.00 [3][4].
Some markets suggested a mid-afternoon downward drift, yet projected higher closing prices. Despite this broad expectation, implied probabilities from certain Robinhood markets suggested a mild downward drift from slightly higher targets by mid-afternoon. For instance, the SOL 15 min · 2:30–2:45 PM EST market priced '$91.5035 or above' at about 10%, and the SOL 15 min · 3:30–3:45 PM EST market priced '$91.6150 or above' at approximately 1% [7][8]. This indicated a market expectation for SOL to fall below these specific, slightly higher thresholds, creating some uncertainty about consistently holding above $91 [3]. However, looking towards the end of the day, Robinhood's SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 5 PM EST market suggested an expectation for SOL to be in the low-$90s, with '$93 or above' at 76% and '$92 or above' at 75%, implying that the $91 mark was well below the anticipated closing range [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 115 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  2. 2Buy Solana - SOL Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com
  3. 3SOL price on November 2: Gemini odds | PredictionsMarket.compredictionsmarket.com
  4. 4Solana Price Prediction for October 30: Polymarket Odds Put SOL Near $93.60polymarkettrader.com
  5. 5Crypto SOL Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  6. 6November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:15–3:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 2:30–2:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:30–3:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

7. For predicting Solana's price on November 2, how does the bearish signal from recent spot ETF outflows compare to indicators from the derivatives market, such as funding rates?

Weekly SOL ETF Outflows$71.47 million (week of Oct 26-30, 2026) [1][2][3]
SOL Price (Nov 2, 2026)$94.32 at 11:00 UTC [1][3][4]
Binance SOL Futures Funding Rate+0.0100% per 8 hours (as of Nov 2, 2026) [5][6][7][8]
Solana’s price faces strong bearish pressure from recent spot market activity. US-listed spot SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced significant net outflows of $71.47 million for the week of October 26-30, 2026, marking the highest weekly withdrawals since their inception and the fourth consecutive week of declines [1][2][3]. This bearish momentum was exacerbated by a whale wallet depositing approximately $148.8 million worth of SOL to exchanges over 10 days and a Binance hacker selling about $96 million of stolen SOL [3][4]. Supporting this negative sentiment, CryptoQuant data further indicates a bearish shift, as SOL spot selling volume surpassed spot buying volume for the first time in over six months [9][10]. Consequently, SOL traded at $94.32 at 11:00 UTC on November 2, 2026, down 1.4% in 24 hours, falling below key technical levels and hinting at emerging oversold conditions [1][3][4].
SOL derivatives market shows neutral to mildly bullish sentiment. As of November 2, 2026, SOL perpetual futures funding rates are positive across major exchanges, with Binance at +0.0100% per 8 hours and the cross-exchange average ranging from +0.0094% to +0.0125% per 8 hours [5][6][7][8]. This positive funding rate, where long positions pay short positions, suggests that the derivatives market is not currently signaling extreme bearishness, despite historical instances where negative funding rates coincided with corrective phases [5][7][11][12]. Furthermore, elevated open interest, estimated between $961 million and $3.83 billion, indicates significant leveraged positioning remains in the market [13][14][15]. Short-term price predictions for November 2-3, 2026, from multiple sources consistently place SOL in the $94-$95 range, aligning with its current trading level [16][17][18].
Sources (18)
  1. 1Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  2. 2Solana Spot ETFs Set Weekly Outflow Record at $71.47 Million | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  3. 3Solana Falls Below $100 as Whale Selling, Spot ETF Outflows, and Weak Technicals Pressure Price | Whale Alertwhale-alert.io
  4. 4Solana Price Below $95, As Whale Moves 149M in SOL | Block Insiderblockinsider.com
  5. 5SOL Futures Perpetual Funding Rate (All) Chart - Glassnodestudio.glassnode.com
  6. 6SOL Funding Rates: Live on 28 Exchanges | ArbTidearbtide.com
  7. 7Solana (SOL) Funding Rate Today and 30-Day History | Liqwallliqwall.com
  8. 8Live Bitcoin & Crypto Perpetual Funding Rates — Annualizedbitcoinmargin.com
  9. 9Solana Walks a Tightrope as ETF Outflows Persist and Spot Volume Turns “Heating” | CryptoCompasscryptocompass.com
  10. 10Solana Drops 5% Amid Altcoin Selloff, ETF Outflowscoinmarketcap.com
  11. 11Solana rebounds above $65, but bearish signals still dominate — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  12. 12SOL stays below $80 amid mixed market sentiment: check forecast — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  13. 13Global Market Tracker | Sharpe Terminalsharpe.ai
  14. 14Highest open interest — crypto perpetuals — Quantorityquantority.com
  15. 15Crypto Open Interest — Live Futures OI by Coin | CoinAligatorcoinaligator.com
  16. 16Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030coincodex.com
  17. 17Solana Price Prediction 2026, 2027, 2030 & Beyondbinance.com
  18. 18Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2026, 2027 - 2030digitalcoinprice.com

8. What does an analysis of Level 2 order book data from Coinbase and Binance reveal about buy and sell pressure around the $91.35 price target for November 2?

Bid/Ask Balance (SOL)+11.18% (within 1% of mid price on Nov 2, 2026) [1]
SOL Price (Nov 2, 2026)$91.73 [1]
Resistance Zone (SOL)$90-$94 supply zone, with $94-$96 as immediate resistance [2]
Specific Level 2 order book data around $91.35 was limited on November 2, 2026. While a Coin Liquidity index indicated SOL at $91.73 with a positive Bid/Ask Balance of +11.18% within 1% of the mid price, suggesting net buy-side pressure [1], other analyses pointed to different trends. Around SOL's $90 breakout, thinning order books on major exchanges were observed, signaling weakening bids and fragile liquidity near $95-$96 resistance [3]. Coinspeaker identified a $90-$94 supply zone for SOL at $91.35, with $94-$96 serving as immediate resistance [2]. Furthermore, data for Coinbase spot SOL-USD showing a bid-heavy depth was not reflective of November 2, 2026, or the $91.35 price point [4].
Broader market trends significantly influenced SOL's price in early November 2026. The wider crypto market experienced substantial sell pressure, including $500 million in long liquidations, as Bitcoin dropped to $78,000. This market downturn caused SOL to fall 5% to $86.98 [5]. This broader market context, combined with thinning order books and the identified supply zone around $91-$94, suggests a mixed and potentially cautious environment around the $91.35 price target, despite some immediate buy-side indications from the Coin Liquidity index [1][2][3][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Coin Liquidity | Indexcoinliquidity.com
  2. 2SOL USD Sets Eyes on 90 Again: Setting Stage for Major Breakoutcoinspeaker.com
  3. 3Solana's $90 Breakout: Flow Analysis of Short Squeeze Risk and Liquidityainvest.com
  4. 4SOL Reference Depth | Hyperliquid, Binance, Coinbase | HypeBasishypebasis.io
  5. 5$500 million in long liquidations hit crypto markets as Bitcoin slides to $78,000; SOL, XRP sink 5%ebtcnews.com

9. What impact, if any, is the recent Binance security incident expected to have on trader sentiment and SOL liquidity leading into the afternoon of November 2?

Weekly SOL Price Drop7.2% to $94.22 (week to Nov 1) [1]
SOL ETF Net Outflows$71.47 million (last week) [2][3]
Solana CFGI Sentiment28 (Fear) [4][5][6]
The recent Binance security incident negatively impacted SOL liquidity and trader sentiment. Despite Binance covering approximately 95% of the $6.3 billion stolen assets, the event created a risk-off environment, particularly affecting high-beta altcoins such as Solana (SOL) [7][8]. This incident has led to increased sell pressure within the market.
Solana's liquidity faced significant pressure, driving notable price declines. This was evidenced by a hacker selling $96 million of stolen SOL by November 2, and a whale depositing 1.49 million SOL, valued at $148.77 million, to exchanges over 10 days [2][3]. Furthermore, US-listed spot SOL ETFs recorded their highest weekly withdrawals since launch, with $71.47 million in net outflows last week [2][3]. Consequently, SOL's price fell 7.2% over the week to November 1, dropping to $94.22, and traded between $94.02 and $94.32 on November 2 [1][9][4][2].
Trader sentiment for Solana is firmly in the 'Fear' zone. The broader Fear & Greed Index registered between 34 and 38, while Solana's CFGI sentiment score averaged 28 across the first two days of November [4][5][6]. Technical indicators supported this, showing 83% bearish sentiment and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 29-29.75, which indicates oversold conditions [4]. The increase in SOL open interest by 4.56-4.71% concurrent with its price decline suggests the establishment of new short positions or hedges, alongside $3.60 million in liquidations, predominantly from leveraged long positions [4][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Signal Board 2 Nov: exchange outflows, stablecoins shrinkcryptowatchdesk.com
  2. 2Solana Price Below $95, As Whale Moves 149M in SOL | Block Insiderblockinsider.com
  3. 3Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  4. 4Solana (SOL) News Today: Why SOL Is Down – 02 November 2026coinstats.app
  5. 5Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2026 2027 2028 - 2040changelly.com
  6. 6Solana Monthly Sentiment Reports: Every Month Since 2022cfgi.io
  7. 7Binance on X: "Security Incident | Recovery Update #2" / Xx.com
  8. 8Solana Tests $92 Support Amid Binance Hack Fears and ETF Outflows | Woofun Researchwoofun.ai
  9. 9Solana Drops 3.8% Amid Binance Hack, Whale Sales, ETF Outflows | Top Stories | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com
  10. 10【AI CRYPTO LAB】Solana(SOL)晚報(2026-11-02):SOL 罕見窒息式收斂!全網 8.69 億美元 未平倉合約蓄勢,提防今晚美盤一劍封喉 – AI加密貨幣實驗室aicryptolab.net
  11. 11Solana (SOL) Price Today, Futures & Spot Data | CoinGlasscoinglass.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The specified Robinhood contract, SOL 15 min · 3:15–3:30 PM EST on November 2, 2026, targets $91.5352 and resolves based on the relative change in the average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSDRTI [1]. The short-term backdrop for November 2 was bearish, with SOL trading around $91.91–$95.48 [2][3][4]. Solana had experienced five consecutive weekly losses, and spot SOL ETFs recorded $71.47M in weekly outflows, representing the largest since their launch [2][3]. Price remained below major EMAs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 31 suggested possible, but unconfirmed, oversold conditions [2].
Immediate bearish catalysts included continued ETF outflows, a weak technical structure positioned below roughly $98–$104 EMA resistance, broader crypto risk-off conditions, and uncertainty around rates [2][3][5]. A break of approximately $90 was identified as opening downside toward about $87 [5]. For intraday positioning on November 2, reported levels indicated a bid wall near $90.20, an ask wall near $93.00, and estimated liquidation or positioning levels around $91.25–$92.00 [4]. These imply nearby resistance overhead and potential support below, though the data source is not an exchange-primary feed [4].
Medium-term bullish catalysts were noted, including Alpenglow activation on October 21 for roughly 150 ms finality, Polygon Open Money Stack support for Solana announced October 29, and Solana Breakpoint in London scheduled for November 15–17 [6][7][8]. However, these factors were considered unlikely by themselves to determine a single 15-minute candle's movement [6][7][8]. An evidence-based directional assessment for a comparable 15-minute SOL contract on November 2 leaned bearish-to-neutral, with a slight bearish bias, primarily due to ETF flows and the prevailing trend structure [2][3][4][1]. A bullish outcome would necessitate short-term stabilization or a reclaim of nearby resistance, while a break below nearby support would favor bearish continuation [2][3][4][1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 02, 2026
  • Expiration: November 09, 2026
  • Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:15–3:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  3. 3SOL Struggles Below $100: ETF Outflows, Bearish Structure, but Fundamentals Intact — November 3, 2026 | AInvestainvest.com
  4. 4Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  5. 5We Picked 8 Cryptocurrencies to Invest $1,000 in for November 2026coinpaper.com
  6. 6Solana price stays under pressure as payments infrastructure expandsad-hoc-news.de
  7. 7https://solana.com/news/the-token-supercyclesolana.com
  8. 8Solana Breakpoint 2026 is almost here, but the action starts | KuCoinkucoin.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021600-00: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021545-45: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021530-30: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021515-15: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021500-00: YES (Nov 02, 2026)