Short Answer

The market considers it unlikely that SOL will reach the $92.0880 target price between 1:00 PM EST and 1:15 PM EST on November 2, pricing this outcome at 41.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • SOL's target price is favored by persistent bearish market pressure.
  • Whale deposits likely increased latent sell pressure around $92.50 support.
  • Bearish technical indicators and ETF outflows contributed to downside momentum.

Current Context

Solana (SOL) faces significant downward pressure, trading near $93–$94 on November 2, 2026 [1]. This decline follows reported whale activity totaling 1.49 million SOL to exchanges, a recent $6.3 billion Binance hack, and record-high weekly ETF outflows totaling $71.47 million [1][2][3].
Bearish sentiment prevails as SOL trades below key technical averages. Experts and prediction markets identify $92.50–$93.50 as critical support levels [1][4][5]. A breach of these levels could lead to further declines toward the mid-$80s [5].
Short-term prediction markets track SOL against broader bearish trends. Platforms like Robinhood and Kalshi list "15 min" prediction markets for SOL, utilizing CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index (RTI) [6][7][8][9]. The $92.0880 target price for the November 2, 1:00 PM – 1:15 PM EST window refers to an active prediction event on these platforms. Market participants view these short-term fluctuations within the context of wider, ongoing volatility and bearish market trends [6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Solana Price Below $95, As Whale Moves 149M in SOL | Block Insiderblockinsider.com
  2. 2Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  3. 3Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  4. 4Solana Price Prediction for November 2: Polymarket Odds Put SOL Near $93.94polymarkettrader.com
  5. 5SOL Price Closes at a 30-Day Low Near Its $92.50 Flooraltcoinbuzz.io
  6. 623:44:38 Solana Up or Down - November 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ETfuture.news
  7. 7November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 11:45–12:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 12:30–12:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9Solana 15 minutes — Kalshi Market Volume | TickerTrackerticker-tracker.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market for "SOL 15 min" runs from November 2, 1:00 PM EST to 1:15 PM EST, which is its expiration time. The specific price target that triggers a "YES" or "NO" resolution is not stated in the provided content. The market's final settlement value is calculated by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected from CF Benchmarks during the final minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

The outcome of the specific “SOL 15 min · $92.0880 target” contract was not directly surfaced, although similar 15-minute SOL target contracts on Kalshi were resolving on November 2, 2026 [1]. Broader market commentary indicated roughly $92 as a resistance area, with some analysts anticipating a potential move toward $96 following a breakout, while one trader reported adding to SOL longs with a first target of $98.4 [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Kalshi Markets Resolved in 2026 (2) | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Solana Eyes New Leg Up After Triangle Breakout – Is $96 The Next Stop? - Coins Trend BLOGcoinstrend.net

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 70 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score12Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score70Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $92.0880—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $92.0880—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $92.088095
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
12Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.7c slippage (~2% of a 37.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 2.3c slippage (~6% of a 37.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $92.0880Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 2, 2026

5. What impact are recent whale deposits to Binance and Coinbase having on SOL's order book depth around the $92.50 support level?

Whale SOL deposit1.49 million SOL (~$148.77 million) over 10 days [1]
Binance bids within 2%$49.5 million (vs $43.9 million asks) on Nov 2 [2]
24-hour whale net flow (Nov 2)negative $1.51 million [3]
Recent whale deposits totaling approximately 1.49 million SOL, valued at $148.77 million over the past 10 days, suggest increased latent sell pressure on SOL [1]. This situation makes bids around the $92.50 support level more vulnerable, particularly if aggressive market selling occurs [2][4][1]. Technical analysis from November 2 supported this view, identifying $92.50–$93 as a key break-and-hold-below zone, which implies $92.50 acts more as a trigger area than a firm floor, with $88 as a potential first downside target [5].
Visible order book data showed fragile SOL support, not definitively broken as of November 2. Observed order books on that date indicated a net bid dominance near the price, suggesting a fragile or conditional support level rather than an already-thinned or decisively broken order book [2][4][1]. For instance, on Binance at 13:32 UTC, visible bids within 2% below the price totaled $49.5 million compared to $43.9 million in asks within 2% above, including a notable $2.4 million bid specifically at $91.95 [2]. A six-venue snapshot also reported $18.2 million in bids versus $12.5 million in asks within a 2% range [4].
Visible order book depth does not confirm actual SOL sales from recent deposits. Despite these visible bids, order-book depth represents visible resting liquidity that can be canceled or spoofed, and there is no confirmation that the deposited SOL was actually sold into these bids [6][7]. Cross-exchange whale-flow data for November 2 showed a modest 24-hour whale net flow of negative $1.51 million, pointing to potential leverage sensitivity rather than conclusive forced selling [3]. While a November 2 market snapshot implied a 99% chance SOL would remain above $92.50 [8], exchange-specific order-book observations are directional evidence and do not determine the settlement of prediction markets, which resolve based on CF Benchmarks SOLUSDRTI averages for November 2, 2026 [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Lookonchain monitored a whale depositing 1.49M SOL worth about $148.77M to multiple exchanges over the past 10 days.mexc.fm
  2. 2Solana Order Book Heatmap — Live SOL Liquidity Map | Liqwallliqwall.com
  3. 3Solana (SOL) Price, Open Interest & Whale Flow | CoinLobstercoinlobster.com
  4. 4BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE and AVAX spot order book heatmap across six exchangesfuelmaps.io
  5. 5$SOL: Situation breakdown. Where to enter? for BYBIT:SOLUSDT.P by Wall_Street_Levels — TradingViewtradingview.com
  6. 6Solana Spot Orderbook Depth Chart — CryptoKeyholecryptokeyhole.com
  7. 7Solana Whale Orders — Large SOL Buy & Sell Walls Live | In-Cryptoin-crypto.app
  8. 8SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 10am EST? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  9. 9November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 10:45–11:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

6. What do key technical indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages on the 1-hour chart, signal for SOL's momentum leading into the 1:00 PM EST window on November 2?

1-hour Downside Probability86% [1][2]
SOL Price (1 PM EST)near $92-$94 area [3][4][5]
RSI(14) (Momentum)41.81 (PriceONN) [1][2]
Leading into the 1:00 PM EST window on November 2, key technical indicators for SOL signaled a bearish-to-rangebound momentum. Downside pressure was evident, reinforced by moving averages and other oscillators, though momentum was not decisively oversold. The 1-hour technical picture for SOL was bearish, with the asset trading around $94.39, positioned below its 1-hour EMA8 ($94.50), EMA21 ($94.60), and EMA50 ($95.15), all of which were bearishly aligned [1][2].
A 1-hour model rated the downside probability at 86% [1][2]. The broader 1-hour indicator mix further reinforced this downside pressure. PriceONN displayed a SELL oscillator summary, while the MACD registered a negative momentum reading of −0.228. Bearish readings were also noted on several longer moving averages, and Bigroom specifically indicated bearish stochastic momentum [1][2].
Despite the bearish signals, momentum on the 1-hour chart was weak rather than decisively oversold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI(14)) was reported at 41.81 by PriceONN and 44.9 by Bigroom; both figures were below the neutral 50 level but remained above the conventional 30 oversold threshold [1][2]. The most defensible short-horizon signal was described as bearish-to-rangebound. While resistance was roughly identified at $94.60–$96.07 and support at $93.00, then $92.47/$92.00, oversold daily and shorter-term conditions suggested room for a sharp relief bounce. During the 1:00 PM EST target window, SOL was trading near the $92–$94 area [3][2][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Solana price (SOL/USD): live chart and technicals | PriceONNpriceonn.com
  2. 2Solana / US Dollar (SOLUSD) 1 hour chart technical analysis & forecastbigroom.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Clings To 77,800 After The Record $6.3B Binance Hack, ETFs Shed $643M And Ether Lost Its Trendline | Technical Analysis - Crypto Report | 02 Nov 2026 - Capital Street FXcapitalstreetfx.com
  4. 4SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 1pm EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5Solana Price Prediction for November 2: Polymarket Odds Put SOL Near $93.94polymarkettrader.com

7. How does Solana's intraday price volatility on November 2 compare to Ethereum's in response to the recent market-wide ETF outflows?

SOL 15-minute volatility0.277% [1][2]
ETH 15-minute volatility0.208% [1][2]
SOL weekly spot ETF outflows$71.47 million [3][4][5]
Solana demonstrated greater intraday volatility compared to Ethereum on November 2. Specifically, Solana exhibited higher intraday price volatility than Ethereum across shorter time horizons, including 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour intervals [1][2]. Over a 15-minute period, Solana's volatility was 0.277% compared to Ethereum's 0.208%, indicating that SOL was approximately 1.33 times more volatile during that timeframe [1][2]. Conversely, when considering a full one-day range, Ethereum displayed slightly higher volatility at 3.225% against Solana's 2.918% [1].
Broader market outflows impacted cryptocurrencies, but Solana saw recent inflows. The wider market experienced significant ETF outflows, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs losing $643.3 million and spot Ether ETFs losing $155.9 million on Friday, October 30 [2][4][6]. On November 2, Ether recorded $39.61 million in net outflows over a 24-hour period, while Solana registered a net inflow of $34.23 million [2][4][6]. Despite this 24-hour inflow, Solana's spot ETFs reported $71.47 million in weekly outflows, representing its largest withdrawal since launching [3][4][5]. During the preceding week, SOL's price decreased by 7.2% from $101.52 to $94.22, while ETH declined by 1.9% from $2,333 to $2,288 [3][4][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Crypto Volatility | Coin Ranking & History - CoinBosscoinboss.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Clings To 77,800 After The Record $6.3B Binance Hack, ETFs Shed $643M And Ether Lost Its Trendline | Technical Analysis - Crypto Report | 02 Nov 2026 - Capital Street FXcapitalstreetfx.com
  3. 3Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  4. 4Signal Board 2 Nov: exchange outflows, stablecoins shrinkcryptowatchdesk.com
  5. 5Solana price pressured as spot ETF outflows hit recordad-hoc-news.de
  6. 6Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M outflows Friday; 2026 barely greencoindesk.com

8. What is the composition of the CF Benchmarks Solana Real-Time Index (RTI), and which exchanges have the most weight in its calculation for the 1:00 PM–1:15 PM EST period?

SOLUSD_RTI Constituent ExchangesCoinbase, Kraken, Gemini, LMAX Digital, and Bitstamp [1][2][3][4]
Crypto.com RoleConstituent for Reference Rates only, not Real Time Index [1]
Weighting MechanismDepth-weighted mid price with exponential distribution weighting [5][6]
The Solana Real-Time Index comprises five key exchanges. The CME CF Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) includes Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, LMAX Digital, and Bitstamp as its primary constituent exchanges [1][2][3][4]. It is important to note that Crypto.com is a constituent specifically for Reference Rates but is not included in the Real Time Index calculation itself [1].
Exchange influence in the index is dynamic and liquidity-driven. The methodology for the SOLUSD_RTI does not utilize fixed exchange weights [5][6]. Instead, it combines the order books from all constituent exchanges to form a single consolidated order book, from which a depth-weighted mid price is calculated using exponential distribution weighting [5][6]. The effective influence, or "weight," of each exchange, including during specific times like 1:00 PM–1:15 PM EST, is dynamically determined by the relative depth and liquidity of its order book at that particular moment [5][4]. Due to their significant order book depth and high liquidity, Coinbase and Kraken typically contribute the most and thus have the greatest practical influence on the consolidated mid price [5][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2Bitstamp to be added as a Constituent Exchange for CME CF Solana-Dollar Indices - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3CME CF Cryptocurrency Pricing Productsdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4FAQ: CME CF Single-Asset Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  5. 5CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6Announcement of Changes to the Order Size Cap Parameter for CME CF Real Time Indices - CFBcfbenchmarks.com

9. How are funding rates for SOL perpetual futures on exchanges like dYdX and Binance shaping trader sentiment for the November 2 session?

Binance SOL Perpetual Funding Rate+0.0100% per 8 hours (~10.95% APR) [1][2][3][4]
dYdX SOL Perpetual Funding Rate+0.0038%–+0.0039% per hour (~33%–34% APR) [1][2][3][4]
Binance SOL Open InterestApproximately $887.5M for SOLUSDT and $118.3M for SOLUSDC [5][3]
SOL perpetual funding rates for November 2 session were broadly positive. This indicated a long-biased positioning premium among traders rather than a dominance of bearish short positions [1][2][3][4]. Binance's SOL perpetual funding was specifically recorded at +0.0100% per 8 hours, equivalent to approximately 10.95% APR. In contrast, dYdX displayed a materially richer rate of roughly +0.0038% to +0.0039% per hour, translating to an annual percentage rate of around 33% to 34%, suggesting comparatively crowded leveraged long positions on that platform [1][2][3][4]. However, the signal across all venues was not uniformly euphoric, with some markets exhibiting near-zero or negative rates, which could imply selective leverage, hedging activities, or short demand elsewhere [1][3][4].
Binance held the largest reported SOL open interest on November 2. Approximately $887.5 million was held for SOLUSDT and $118.3 million for SOLUSDC, with its funding capped at the standard positive +0.0100% per 8 hours, suggesting meaningful but not extreme long carry in the deepest market [5][3]. For the requested $92.0880 target resolving from 1:00 PM to 1:15 PM EST, the observed positive funding rates indicated that longs were consistently paying to maintain their exposure [1][2][3][4]. However, prediction market context around November 2, 2026, placed SOL closer to the mid-$94 area in available contemporaneous snapshots, with one market showing a $94-or-above outcome at 55% probability around 10:00 AM EST, making the $92.0880 target materially below those cited session levels [6][7]. It is also important to note that a high concentration of long positions can increase liquidation-reversal risk if SOL's price declines [1][2][3][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Solana (SOL) Funding Rate Today — Live Cross-Venue Comparisonfundingrates.app
  2. 2SOL Funding Rate on Binance: Live Rate, APR and History | ArbTidearbtide.com
  3. 3SOL Funding Rate & Open Interest, All Exchanges | Perpspecperpspec.com
  4. 4SOL Funding Rates: Live on 28 Exchanges | ArbTidearbtide.com
  5. 5SOLUSDT funding rate, open interest and mark price | Fibonomyfibonomy.com
  6. 6November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 10:45–11:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 10am EST? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The requested 15-minute SOL threshold market for November 2, 2026, 1:00–1:15 PM EST, faces immediate bearish pressure. SOL traded around $94–$95 on November 2, down approximately 7% over seven days [1][2]. US spot SOL ETFs recorded about $71.47 million in weekly net outflows, noted as the largest since their launch [2][3]. Technical indicators showed SOL below key EMAs at $98.08, $99.96, and $103.81 [2]. A whale deposit of 1.49 million SOL, valued at roughly $148.8 million, to exchanges over ten days also contributed to selling pressure [1]. The broader market was fragile, with Solana falling from about $101.52 to $94.22 during the week, an RSI reported near 29, stablecoin supply contraction, and increased derivatives open interest [4][5].
Despite the prevailing bearish trend, the 1:00–1:15 PM EST window for this specific contract, which settles based on the CF Benchmarks SOLUSDRTI 60-second average [6][7][8], introduces short-term noise. Robinhood's November 2 snapshot showed a 1:00 PM ET SOL threshold near $92.25 or above priced at 95% [8]. However, such platform snapshots are subject to rapid change and should not be treated as forecasts [8]. Evidence for this specific 15-minute window supports only a cautious directional lean, with bearish factors competing against potential short-covering and nearby support [1][2][4][8]. One earlier November 2 10:00–10:15 AM ET SOL market resolved Up, demonstrating that short-duration movements can diverge from the overall daily trend [5].
Longer-horizon bullish catalysts, such as Solana ecosystem adoption, tokenized-asset growth, institutional custody, staking initiatives, and planned Agave 4.4 upgrades in November, are less likely to impact the specified 15-minute contract [9][10][11][12][13]. Agave 4.4 is officially planned for November 2026 [11]. Other upcoming dated events include Agave 4.4 feature activation reported as November 9, Solana AI Day and 200ms on November 13, Scale or Die on November 14, Block Zero on November 15, and Breakpoint 2026 on November 15–17 [11][12][13]. These events are more relevant for medium-term sentiment rather than triggering a move within the 1:00–1:15 PM EST window [11][12][13].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 02, 2026
  • Expiration: November 09, 2026
  • Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (13)
  1. 1Solana Price Below $95, As Whale Moves 149M in SOL | Block Insiderblockinsider.com
  2. 2Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  3. 3Solana price pressured as spot ETF outflows hit recordad-hoc-news.de
  4. 4Signal Board 2 Nov: exchange outflows, stablecoins shrinkcryptowatchdesk.com
  5. 5SOL Up or Down - 15 Min — 2026-11-02 15:15 UTC | Unhedged.ggunhedged.gg
  6. 6November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 10:45–11:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 10:15–10:30 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8Buy Solana - SOL Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com
  9. 9Solana News Nov 2: Google Custody and Akash Vote Recapcoingabbar.com
  10. 10Solana (SOLUSD) Is up 1.02% on Nov 2: Key Drivers to Watchtradingkey.com
  11. 11Solana Network Upgrades | Solana Mediasolana.com
  12. 12https://solana.com/news/the-token-supercyclesolana.com
  13. 13Solana Weekly Recap (November 1, 2026): Binance Incident, Agave v4.4.0, Ondo Portfolios | SOLANA·HUBsolanahub.de

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021300-00: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021245-45: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021230-30: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021215-15: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV021200-00: NO (Nov 02, 2026)