Short Answer

Solana (SOL) is likely to reach a price target of $93.3673 within the 15-minute window from 5:45 PM EST to 6:00 PM EST on November 3, with the market pricing this outcome at 55.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • $93.3673 target likely, as SOL perpetual funding rates show bullish sentiment.
  • Reaching $93.3673 is challenged by significant sell-side pressure around $93.
  • SOL currently trades $92.30-$93.00, requiring a clear break for $93.3673 confirmation.

Current Context

SOL 15-minute prediction markets, including Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket, resolve based on the simple average of 60 CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI prices collected in the minute prior to the target time, rounded to four decimal places [1][2][3]. The $93.3673 target for November 3, 5:45–6:00 PM EST, follows this resolution mechanism [1][2][3]. On November 3, 2026, SOL traded around $91.90–$93.54, a 2.68% decrease over 24 hours, with an intraday range of $90.87 to $94.98, following a 19.2% drop in October [4][5][6]. Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 25, indicating oversold conditions, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below signal and zero lines, and an expanding negative histogram, suggesting persistent downside pressure [7][6]. Key support levels are at $88.47–$90.19, with resistance at $94.30–$96.69 [7][6].
Analyst forecasts and market sentiment point to downside risk. Polymarket traders implied a November 3 noon ET price of $92.67, with a 50% range of $91.13–$94.20, assigning a 93.4% probability of SOL staying above $90, but only a 12% probability of exceeding $95 [8]. The single most likely range was $90–$100 at 93.5% [8]. CoinGecko data, sourced from Polymarket, estimates a 66.0% chance of SOL reaching $100 by the end of November 2026, while a 79.0% probability exists for testing the $90 support level; overall market sentiment is bearish [9]. Alejandro Arrieche of FXEmpire revised his SOL target on November 2, 2026, predicting a dip to $83–$77, representing an 18% downside risk from approximately $91.90 [6]. Analyst Crypto Patel views SOL's five-wave bullish move as complete, anticipating a deeper correction targeting $73–$78 (Wave C), with immediate support at $90–$93 and resistance at $107–$112 [10]. CoinEdition's November 2026 forecast projects SOL ranging between $88 and $98 for November 3–9, with a bullish scenario targeting $103 if SOL reclaims the 200-day EMA at $98.04, and a bearish case risking $80 if SOL breaks below $91.39 support [5]. Standard Chartered adjusted its 2026 SOL price target to $250 from $310 but maintains a $2,000 outlook by 2030, driven by an expected shift towards stablecoin micropayments; analyst Geoffrey Kendrick views the current price dip as a buying opportunity [11][12]. Kalshi's SOL 15-minute markets generated $236.1 million in volume over the last 30 days across 2,848 active events, with the 'SOL 15 min · $95.8092 target' on October 31 being the most active at $301,163 in volume [13].
Recent network developments and macro factors influence SOL. Solana's Alpenglow consensus upgrade, activated on mainnet September 28, 2026, with 98.27% validator support, aims for ~150ms block finality, a reduction from 12.8 seconds [14][15]. The upgrade also reduces validator running costs by approximately 98% and cuts the minimum profitable stake from ~4,850 SOL to ~450 SOL [14][15]. US spot Solana ETFs experienced $143.71 million in outflows during October 2026, ending a three-month streak of inflows; cumulative ETF inflows had reached a record $1.22 billion by late August 2026, with Bitwise's BSOL accounting for the majority [5][16]. A Solflare validator incident on October 26–27, 2026, involved approximately $135,000 in assets being withdrawn using operating keys from five validators; user delegated balances remained untouched [4]. Solflare extended the deadline for stakers to migrate to a new validator to November 30, 2026 [4]. The broader macro environment for SOL on November 3, 2026, includes prospects of US-Iran negotiations, expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, and the US midterm elections [17]. A Republican sweep in the elections could support SOL through anticipated fiscal expansion, while a Democratic sweep combined with geopolitical escalation might deepen downside pressure [17].
Sources (17)
  1. 1November 3, 2026: SOL 15 min · 5:30–5:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2November 3, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:30–3:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3November 3, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:00–3:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4Solana price prediction: validator incident, SOL at $93cryptoticker.io
  5. 5Solana Price Prediction November 2026: Will SOL Recover in November After a 19% October Drop?coinedition.com
  6. 6SOL Price Prediction: Arrieche's $96 Call Confirmed as $88–$90 Support Band Faces Its Test - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  7. 7How low could XRP, ADA and SOL fall ahead of US midterm elections?fxstreet.com
  8. 8Solana Price Prediction for November 3: Polymarket Odds Put SOL Near $92.67polymarkettrader.com
  9. 9Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2026 | CoinGeckocoingecko.com
  10. 10Solana Price Prediction: Five-Wave Rally May Be Over as $78 Becomes the Next SOL Target | CoinCodexcoincodex.com
  11. 11Solana Price Prediction: Standard Chartered’s Surprising 2026 Downgrade Reveals Long-Term Optimism | Solana Price Prediction | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
  12. 12Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Solana Target to $250, Maintains $2,000 2030 Outlook | AInvestainvest.com
  13. 13Solana 15 minutes — Kalshi Market Volume | TickerTrackerticker-tracker.com
  14. 14Best Crypto to Buy Now: Solana Rebuilds Its Engine on September 28 While Pepeto Chases 100x Without Waiting - CaptainAltcoincaptainaltcoin.com
  15. 15Solana Price Forecast — SOL ($104.23) Activates Transaction V1 as ETF Inflows Collapse 96% — $123 Target, $103.35 Pivottradingnews.com
  16. 16Solana Set a Record in Everything Except the Part Holders Care About | Editor's Pick Market | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
  17. 17Solana remains under pressure as markets weigh US-Iran talks, Fed risks and US midterm electionsinvestinglive.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution for this SOL 15 min market occurs if the final average price is greater than the target price of $93.3673, while a "No" resolution occurs if it is less than or equal to this target. The market's final value is determined by averaging 60 prices collected from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) during the last minute before the 6:00 PM EST expiration on November 3.

Market Discussion

Solana's 15-minute prediction markets are highly active, generating over $236 million in volume over the last 30 days, with multiple contracts resolved on November 3, 2026 [1][2]. Trader discussions and analyses pinpoint key resistance for SOL in the $93.36 to $93.67 range, closely aligning with the $93.3673 target for the November 3, 2026 market, with analysts monitoring hourly closes for immediate price direction [3][4][5][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Solana 15 minutes — Kalshi Market Volume | TickerTrackerticker-tracker.com
  2. 2Kalshi Markets Resolved in 2026 (4) | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3SOL 15 min · $93.0550 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4November 3, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:15–3:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5SOL / TetherUS Forum & Chats (BINANCE:SOLUSDT) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com
  6. 6SOL Price Prediction: $95 Retest Dead Ahead - 60% Odds of Breaking to $105 Within 10 Days - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 74 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score74Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $93.3673—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $93.3673—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $93.367395
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 1.0c slippage (~2% of a 56c contract)

$1,000 order: 2.0c slippage (~4% of a 56c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $93.3673Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 3, 2026

5. What immediate support and resistance levels must SOL break before 6:00 PM EST to confirm a trend towards or away from the $93.3673 target?

Target Price$93.3673 (November 3, 2026) [1]
Immediate Resistance$94.30 [2]
Immediate Support$92.50 [1]
SOL needs specific price movements to confirm its trend. As of November 3, 2026, SOL is trading between $92.30 and $93.00, close to its target price of $93.3673 [1]. To confirm an upward trend towards this target, SOL must surpass the immediate resistance level of $94.30. Conversely, a break below the immediate support level of $92.50 would signal a downward trend [2][1].
Key support levels underpin SOL's price stability. The immediate support is $92.50, which has acted as a price floor, turning the price six times since mid-February [1][2][3][4]. A daily close below $92.50 would breach this floor, with the next significant support found at $83.98 [1]. Additional important support levels include $91.39, which represents the lower Bollinger Band, and $90.19 [2][3][1]. A particularly strong support zone is identified between $88.47 and $88.93, reinforced by its proximity to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $88.93 [2][3][1]. The 200-day SMA is considered the most critical structural floor; a daily close below it suggests limited support until the $84–$88 range [2][5].
Significant resistance levels challenge SOL's upward momentum. Beyond the immediate resistance at $94.30 [2], stronger resistance levels are observed at $96.69, which aligns with a $96 zone identified in earlier analysis [2][5][3][1]. A higher resistance zone exists between $98 and $100, where the 100-day line ($98.36) and 20-day line ($101.33) converge [2][5][3][1]. A daily close above $97.30 would indicate that SOL has surpassed its overhead ceiling [1]. Market sentiment on November 3 reflected a low probability for higher prices; Polymarket traders assessed a 12% probability for SOL to be above $95.00 [6], while Robinhood's prediction market showed an 18% probability of SOL being at $93.6332 or higher during a specific timeframe [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1SOL Price Tests Its $92.50 Floor After a Weekly Slidealtcoinbuzz.io
  2. 2SOL Price Prediction: Arrieche's $96 Call Confirmed as $88–$90 Support Band Faces Its Test - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  3. 3Solana Price Prediction November 2026: Will SOL Recover...cryptonews.net
  4. 4Solana Price Prediction: Five-Wave Rally May Be Over as $78 Becomes the Next SOL Target | CoinCodexcoincodex.com
  5. 5Solana price prediction: validator incident, SOL at $93cryptoticker.io
  6. 6Solana Price Prediction for November 3: Polymarket Odds Put SOL Near $92.67polymarkettrader.com
  7. 7November 3, 2026: SOL 15 min · 5:00–5:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 815 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

6. What does order book data from major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase indicate about buy-side vs. sell-side pressure around the $93 price level for SOL?

Binance Futures Bid-to-Ask Ratio0.88 within 1% of price (Nov 3, 2026) [1]
EdgeDepth Taker Buy Share0.45 over 15 minutes (Nov 3, 2026) [2]
CoinLiquidity Immediate Order Book$16.7M in 1% bids vs $13.1M in 1% asks (SOL $93.58) [3]
SOL order books on November 3, 2026, indicated significant sell-side pressure. Around the $93 price level, Binance's futures order book data showed a bid-to-ask ratio of 0.88 within 1% of the price, reflecting $23.3 million in bids against $26.4 million in asks, suggesting a slight seller advantage at $93.46 [1]. Further evidence of aggressive sellers in short-term flow was observed through an EdgeDepth taker buy share of 0.45 over a 15-minute window [2]. Solariaworld data also indicated that sellers were more aggressive across both 4-hour (55.5% sell) and 24-hour (51.4% sell) timeframes [4]. This resistance was particularly pronounced at the $93.50 level, which Swolecharts identified as a significant wall with the largest ask bin recorded at $6.11 million [5]. Consistent with this, Robinhood prediction markets suggested SOL would likely struggle to maintain prices above the mid-$93 range [6][7].
Despite selling pressure, notable buy-side support and absorption were evident. Swiftedge documented a significant event where a 25,101 SOL bid wall at $93.10 was absorbed by market orders, with 13,836 SOL subsequently traded away, demonstrating substantial buy-side absorption at the $93 level [8]. Broader market depth also displayed strength, as Basis Charts for the Binance SOLUSDT perpetual indicated a 51% bid share within ±1% across all 1,000 levels, totaling $108 million in bids versus $99.8 million in offers [9]. CoinLiquidity further highlighted an immediate buy-side advantage for SOL at $93.58, presenting $16.7 million in 1% bids compared to $13.1 million in 1% asks [3]. However, OG.com data on November 3, 2026, noted that the $93.3673 target remained within a contested zone, indicating ongoing market uncertainty [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Bitcoin Order Book online — TRdesktrdesk.com
  2. 2SOL Order Book Heatmap, Order Flow and Liquidations | EdgeDepthedgedepth.com
  3. 3Coin Liquidity | Indexcoinliquidity.com
  4. 4SOLUSDT Buy/Sell Sentiment · Crypto Market APIdata.solariaworld.com
  5. 5Solana (SOL) Order Book Heatmap: Liquidity by Priceswolecharts.com
  6. 6November 3, 2026: SOL 15 min · 5:00–5:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7November 3, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:15–3:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8Solana 3 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  9. 9Free Solana (SOL) Liquidity Heatmap & Order Book Walls | Basisbasischarts.com
  10. 10Solana Price Predictions & Odds - OG.comog.com

7. How do the bearish short-term SOL price targets from FXEmpire's Alejandro Arrieche compare with the more range-bound November forecasts from CoinEdition?

Bearish Short-Term Target (Arrieche)$77-$83 [1][2]
November 2026 Base Case (CoinEdition)$85 to $101 [3]
Downside Risk (Arrieche)18% from ~$91.90 [1][4]
FXEmpire's Alejandro Arrieche issued bearish short-term SOL price targets. On November 2, 2026, he predicted a dip for SOL to the $77-$83 range after it fell below the $96 support level [1][2]. This forecast, made following news of a Binance hack, projected an 18% downside risk from the then-current price of approximately $91.90 [1][4]. Arrieche had previously warned on October 27, 2026, that SOL could drop to $77 if the 200-day EMA and $96 support faltered, a prediction that was subsequently confirmed by price action [4][2].
CoinEdition offered a more range-bound SOL price forecast for November. Parshwa Turakhiya's November 3, 2026 forecast anticipated that SOL would trade between $88 and $98 during the first half of November [3]. For the entire month of November, the base case was projected to be between $85 and $101 [3]. This range-bound outlook suggested a much narrower trading band compared to Arrieche's more bearish targets, which represented a 10-16% decline from the November 3 price of approximately $91.90-$93.37 [1][4][3].
A prediction market outcome aligned with CoinEdition's range-bound forecast. A 15-minute SOL prediction market, targeting $93.3673 for November 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM EST, fell within CoinEdition's projected $88-$98 range for the first week of November [4][3][5][6]. This market target indicated a more moderate near-term outcome when compared to Arrieche's lower $77-$83 bearish target range [4][3][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Solana Price Prediction: Confirmed Bearish Breakout Below $96 Sets Stage for 15% Drop | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  2. 2Solana Price Prediction: SOL Holds Above $100 But On-Chain Data Favors Bearish Outlook | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  3. 3Solana Price Prediction November 2026: Will SOL Recover in November After a 19% October Drop?coinedition.com
  4. 4SOL Price Prediction: Arrieche's $96 Call Confirmed as $88...blockchain.news
  5. 5November 3, 2026: SOL 15 min · 5:30–5:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 615 min Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com

8. Are there any significant discrepancies between the CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI and the real-time spot price on major exchanges that could impact the market's resolution?

SOLUSD_RTI Calculation FrequencyEvery 200 milliseconds [1]
SOLUSD_RTI Value (Nov 3, 2026)$93.10 (as of 15:33:23 GMT) [1][2]
Coinbase Spot Price (Nov 3, 2026)$93.310 [1][2]
Small discrepancies between SOLUSDRTI and spot prices affect market resolution. There are reported small differences between the CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI and individual exchange spot prices [3]. These discrepancies, although described as minor, could significantly impact the market's resolution. This is due to the resolution mechanism's reliance on precise price movements within a sensitive trading range [3][2][4].
The SOLUSDRTI aggregates exchange data, causing small price variations. The CME CF Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) is calculated every 200 milliseconds by aggregating order data from major cryptocurrency exchanges [1]. Its methodology involves consolidating order books, uncrossing them, and computing a depth-weighted mid price. This process can result in small differences compared to individual exchange spot prices [3]. For example, on November 3, 2026, the SOLUSD_RTI was $93.10 (as of 15:33:23 GMT), while Coinbase showed $93.310 [1][2].
Market resolution depends on SOLUSDRTI averages, making it highly sensitive. For the market resolving on November 3 from 5:45 PM EST to 6:00 PM EST, the outcome relies on comparing the simple average of 60 SOLUSDRTI prices before 6:00 PM EST against the simple average of 60 SOLUSDRTI prices before 5:45 PM EST [5]. The market resolves to "Yes" if the ending average is at least the starting average [5]. On November 3, 2026, SOL was trading in the $93 range, with the target price of $93.3673 falling within the daily range of $91.27 to $93.90 [2][4]. This makes the resolution highly sensitive to small price movements [2][4], implying that even minor discrepancies between the SOLUSDRTI and individual spot prices could be consequential for the market's final resolution [3][2][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1CME CF Solana-Dollar Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2Solana (SOL) Historical Data & Price Chartcryptocop.pro
  3. 3CF Spot Ratesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4Solana (SOL) Price Livecoinalyze.net
  5. 5SOL 15 min · $92.3823 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

9. What do trends in SOL perpetual futures funding rates and open interest on November 3rd suggest about leveraged trader sentiment leading into the evening session?

Binance Funding Rate+0.0100% per 8 hours (November 3, 2026) [1][2][3]
Binance Long/Short Ratio75.3% long to 24.7% short [1][4][5][3]
SOL Open Interest (range)$3.26B to $4.01B (November 3, 2026) [1][6][5]
SOL funding rates showed strong bullish sentiment among leveraged traders. On November 3, 2026, SOL perpetual futures funding rates indicated a clear bullish bias. The funding rate on Binance was +0.0100% per 8 hours, with an average of +0.0075% across all exchanges, reflecting a sustained period where long positions paid short positions [1][2][3]. This positive trend had been consistent from late October to early November, underscoring persistent bullish sentiment [2]. Supporting this view, the long/short ratio on Binance was significantly skewed, with 75.3% of positions being long compared to 24.7% short [1][4][5][3].
Despite high open interest, cautious sentiment tempered new leveraged positions. SOL open interest across all exchanges on November 3, 2026, ranged from $3.26B to $4.01B, showing a minor pullback in new leveraged positions with a 24-hour change between -1.3% and +0.77%, yet maintaining high trader participation [1][6][5]. Total liquidations amounted to $4.0M, with short liquidations of $2.2M slightly exceeding long liquidations of $1.7M [1][4][5][3]. SOL traded within a range of $91.22 and $93.85, posting a 1.69% gain for the day and closing near $93.34-$93.51 in the late afternoon despite broader market uncertainties. Leveraged traders remained cautiously optimistic, anticipating a slight upside bias, with liquidation walls suggesting a flip point around $93.50 [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Solana (SOL) Liquidations Today, Funding Rate, Open Interest | Liqwallliqwall.com
  2. 2SOLUSDT funding rate, open interest and mark price | Fibonomyfibonomy.com
  3. 3Crypto Funding Rates — Open Interest & Long/Short Ratio | Coinuggetcoinugget.com
  4. 4SOL Derivatives Dashboard: Open Interest, Funding, Long/Short, Liquidationsintel.hedonist.trading
  5. 5SOL Open Interest $4.01B, Funding Rate, Liquidations | TradRadartradradar.io
  6. 6SOL Perpetual Futures: Funding Rate, Open Interest, Up to 300xoptimistfi.com
  7. 7Solana 3 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  8. 8Solana remains under pressure as markets weigh US-Iran talks, Fed risks and US midterm electionsinvestinglive.com
  9. 9Buy Solana - SOL Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

SOL is trading at $91-$93.50 on November 3, 2026, reflecting a 3.10% drop over 24 hours and a 19.24% decline in October 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This bearish momentum is confirmed by the current price of $93.38 trading below the 50-day EMA ($103.20) and 200-day EMA ($99.88) [1][4]. US spot Solana ETFs recorded their largest monthly outflow ever in October 2026, losing $143.71M, with a $71.47M weekly outflow (Oct 26-30) marking the largest since product launch [5][2]. The $6.3 billion Binance hack on October 29-30, 2026, served as a significant bearish catalyst, though Binance began phased restoration of Solana withdrawals on November 3, 2026 [6][7]. The US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, present a dominant macro event; Polymarket assigns Democrats 51% odds of sweeping both chambers, a scenario generally viewed as bearish for crypto due to potential increased regulatory pressure [8][9][10]. Analyst Crypto Patel indicates SOL completed a five-wave Elliott Wave pattern with rejection near $125, suggesting an ABC correction is underway, with immediate support at $90-$93 and a potential drop toward $73-$78 to complete Wave C [1][11].
Despite the current headwinds, Solana's network fundamentals show improvement and adoption. The Alpenglow consensus upgrade, rolled out in October 2026, significantly reduced transaction finality from approximately 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds [11][12][13]. Furthermore, tokenomics proposals SGP-0002 and SGP-0003 aim to accelerate annual disinflation to 30% and introduce a resource fee, potentially increasing daily SOL burns from around 648 to as many as 9,000 tokens [11][13]. Solana stablecoin card spending reached an all-time high of $141.1 million in October 2026, a sevenfold year-over-year increase, driven largely by the neobank KAST, indicating accelerating real-world utility and adoption in payments [7].
For the first half of November, an $88 to $98 trading range appears more likely than a breakout above $100 [5]. A daily close below $90 would expose the range floor at $88, potentially leading to $80 [5]. The bullish case for SOL requires it to hold $91.39, close above the 200-day EMA at $98.04, and clear the 100-day at $99.66 and 20-day at $100.09 [5]. Key upcoming events include Devcon 8 Mumbai (Nov 3-6), Strategy Q3 results (Nov 4), Agave v4.4.0 feature activation (Nov 9), and Solana Breakpoint 2026 London (Nov 15-17) [14][15]. The CLARITY Act has only approximately 10% probability of passing before midterms [14].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 03, 2026
  • Expiration: November 10, 2026
  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (15)
  1. 1How low could XRP, ADA and SOL fall ahead of US midterm elections?fxstreet.com
  2. 2Solana ETFs Lose $71.47M as SOL Price Falls to $91 | Solana Pricesol-price.com
  3. 3Solana (SOL) Price History — Yearly & All-Time Highs | Coinlibcoinlib.io
  4. 4Solana 的美元历史数据 | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
  5. 5Solana Price Prediction November 2026: Will SOL Recover in November After a 19% October Drop?coinedition.com
  6. 6Solana Weekly Recap (November 1, 2026): Binance Incident, Agave v4.4.0, Ondo Portfoliossolanahub.de
  7. 7Latest Solana News - (SOL) Future Outlook, Trends & Market Insightscoinmarketcap.com
  8. 8Solana remains under pressure as markets weigh US-Iran talks, Fed risks and US midterm electionsinvestinglive.com
  9. 9Crypto Bettors Give Democrats 51% Odds to Sweep the Midterms – WordUp Newswordupnews.com
  10. 10Trump-Related Stocks Face Pressure as Democratic Midterm Victory Odds Rise to 51% | Gate Newsgate.com
  11. 11Solana Price Prediction: Five-Wave Rally May Be Over as $78 Becomes the Next SOL Target | CoinCodexcoincodex.com
  12. 12Solana is set to launch Transaction V1 on September 9, and will further reduce its block time interval. - Lookonchain - Looking for smartmoney onchainlookonchain.com
  13. 13The most important Solana news in 2026: Transaction V1, Alpenglow, and how miners can earn 100 SOL per monthcrypto.news
  14. 14CLARITY Act Delay: US Crypto Regulatory Uncertainty Persists · Crypto Scenario Insightscryptoscenarioinsights.com
  15. 15Crypto Calendar — Key Market Events | Intokened.comintokened.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSOL15M-26NOV031745-45: YES (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV031730-30: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV031715-15: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV031700-00: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV031645-45: YES (Nov 03, 2026)