Short Answer

SOL is unlikely to trade at $93.9295 in the 15 minutes between 8:00 AM EST and 8:15 AM EST on November 2; the market prices this outcome at 41.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Target Price: $93.9295 may be reached on record $71.6M spot ETF outflows.
  • Target Price: $93.9295 could fall to $92.60-$92.70 immediate support cluster.

Current Context

Solana faces bearish pressure from ETF outflows and technical breakdowns. As of November 2, 2026, Solana (SOL) trades around $94.35–$95.48, impacted by record net outflows from U.S.-listed spot SOL ETFs, which totaled $71.47 million for the week ending October 30, 2026 [1][2]. Technical analysis indicates SOL has broken below key support levels and trades under its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, prompting a cascade of leveraged long liquidations [1][2].
Upcoming conference and active prediction markets influence short-term price. The next major event for Solana is Breakpoint 2026, scheduled for November 15–17 in London at the Olympia Convention Centre [3][4][5]. Short-term prediction markets, including those on Robinhood, are actively trading 15-minute SOL price targets, such as approximately $93.92. These markets typically resolve based on CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI (Real Time Index) [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  2. 2SOL's "Support" Isn't a Line. It's a Pile of Leveraged Longs. | AInvestainvest.com
  3. 3Breakpoint 2026: Solana Conference | London Nov 15–17solana.com
  4. 4Solana (SOL) Calendar: Release Schedule, Listings, Hard Fork, Halving — Coindarcoindar.org
  5. 5https://solana.com/news/the-token-supercyclesolana.com
  6. 6November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 7:00–7:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 8am EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  8. 8Crypto SOL Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "YES" if the official and final value of SOL is equal to or greater than the target price of $93.9295, and "NO" if it is below this price. The market expires on November 2, 8:15 AM EST. For settlement, the final value is determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

Polymarket lists an SOL 15-minute Up or Down market for November 2, 2026, running 07:45–08:00 UTC, with the Up outcome priced at 0.99 [1]. While the 15-minute prediction market format for cryptocurrencies like SOL is confirmed by dedicated pages and social commentary, no reliable source explicitly ties the specific target price of $93.9295 to the November 2 SOL 15-minute contract [1].

Sources (1)
  1. 1Solanapolymarket.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 78 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score52Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score78Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $93.929565
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $93.9295—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $93.929595
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
52Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 1.5c slippage (~4% of a 38.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 3.0c slippage (~8% of a 38.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $93.9295Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 2, 2026

5. What volume of leveraged long liquidations on exchanges like Binance and Bybit would be required to push SOL's price below the $93.9295 level on November 2?

SOL Low Price November 2$93.67–$93.72 [1][2][3]
24-Hour Total Liquidations$6.4M–$8.4M [4][5][6][7]
Long Liquidations Percentage70–80% [4][5][6][7]
Quantifying exact liquidation volume for SOL's price drop is challenging. The precise volume of leveraged long liquidations required to push SOL's price below $93.9295 on November 2 could not be accurately determined, primarily due to the dynamic nature of market conditions [8][9]. Nevertheless, on November 2, 2026, SOL did trade below the $93.9295 threshold, reaching a low of approximately $93.67–$93.72 during the morning hours, specifically before 8:15 AM EST [1][2][3].
Market data indicated low risk of massive liquidation cascade at this price point. When SOL's price reached the lower threshold, market indicators suggested a reduced probability of a widespread liquidation cascade [1][10][8]. A notable cluster of potential liquidations was observed around the $94.00 mark, with a significant bid wall, indicating resting liquidity, positioned at $92.90 [1][10][8]. Despite the presence of this bid wall, the order book depth at $94.00 was thin, as evidenced by a bid wall of approximately 3,000–9,000 SOL being withdrawn during the trading session [8][9].
Historical liquidation figures provide context but not specific volume. In the 24 hours prior to the November 2 target period, total liquidations across major cryptocurrency exchanges ranged between approximately $6.4 million and $8.4 million [4][5][6][7]. A substantial portion of these, specifically 70–80%, were identified as long liquidations, with Binance and Bybit noted as significant contributors to these events [4][5][6][7]. It is important to recognize that these figures represent past totals and do not directly quantify the precise volume of liquidations needed to achieve the specific price target.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  2. 2SOLUSD Historical Prices | ChartExchangechartexchange.com
  3. 3Solana USD (SOL-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Solana (SOL) Liquidations Today: Longs vs Shorts 24h | Liqwallliqwall.com
  5. 5Liquidations SOL (Solana) — TRdesktrdesk.com
  6. 6SOL Open Interest $4.06B, Funding Rate, Liquidations | TradRadartradradar.io
  7. 7Solana (SOL) Liquidations: Long & Short | BitcoinLeveragebitcoinleverage.com
  8. 8Solana Perpetual Orderbook Price Impact Chart — CryptoKeyholecryptokeyhole.com
  9. 9Solana (SOL) Liquidation Map — Live, Free, No Login | MarginPadmarginpad.io
  10. 10SOL (SOLUSDT) — liquidation levels, open interest & funding rate | Squeeze Insights Labsqueeze-labs.com

6. What evidence from the record ETF flow data for the week ending October 30 supports the current bearish outlook for SOL's price action on November 2?

Record Weekly ETF OutflowApproximately $71.5M-$71.6M (Oct. 26-30) [1][2][3][4][5][6][3][5]
Total Net ETF Assets DeclineTo near $1.40B (from $1.54B-$1.55B) [3][7][5][6]
Target Price for Prediction Window$93.9295 (Nov. 2, 8:00-8:15 a.m. ET) [1][2][3][4][5][6][3][5]
U.S. spot SOL ETFs experienced a record weekly outflow of approximately $71.6 million. From October 26 through October 30, U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded approximately $71.5M-$71.6M in net outflows [1][2][3]. This period marked a sustained institutional withdrawal, with every trading session being negative and no inflows to offset redemptions [1][2][3][4][5]. On October 30 alone, outflows totaled roughly $10.7M-$10.8M, extending the negative streak to five sessions [8][4][5][6]. The majority of these withdrawals were concentrated in the largest products, with BSOL losing about $45.82M and GSOL approximately $25.71M over the week [3][6].
These significant outflows coincided with weakening SOL price action. This period saw SOL's price fall approximately 5.6% from October 29 to October 30, closing at $95.62 [8][5][6]. Total net ETF assets also declined significantly, dropping to near $1.40 billion on October 30 from roughly $1.54B-$1.55B earlier in the week [3][7][5][6]. This decline is consistent with both the redemptions and the depreciation in SOL's price [3][7][5][6].
ETF outflows suggest reduced institutional demand, but interpretation is directional. While ETF outflows generally indicate reduced institutional demand and may diminish spot buying support, the bearish interpretation is directional rather than deterministic [8][5]. Data sources explicitly caution that ETF flows reflect prior investor activity and do not reliably predict short-term price movements [8][5]. Furthermore, redemptions can also signify arbitrage unwinds rather than outright directional selling [8][5]. Therefore, while the record weekly outflow supports a bearish bias for SOL's price action on November 2, it does not definitively establish that SOL will cross or remain below $93.9295 during that interval [3][5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1U.S. Spot Solana ETFs Record $71.6 Million in Five-Session Outflows | EconoTimeseconotimes.com
  2. 2Solana spot ETFs see record $71.47M outflows in... | Pluangpluang.com
  3. 3솔라나(SOL) ETF 7147만4800달러 순유출, 주간 역대 최대 | 토큰포스트tokenpost.kr
  4. 4U.S. Spot Solana ETFs Record $10.8 Million in Outflows on Oct. 30 | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  5. 5Solana ETF Flows Today: −$10.7M (30 Oct) | CoinPulseHQcoinpulsehq.com
  6. 6ETF Trackersolanafloor.com
  7. 7Spot SOL ETFs Record $10.7M Daily Outflows, BSOL Leads | Phemex Newsphemex.com
  8. 8Solana ETF Flows by Fund, Live | Alpha Financealphafinance.io

7. How did Solana's (SOL) price volatility and trading volume on November 1-2 compare to that of its peer, XRP, amid widespread bearish crypto sentiment?

Solana Daily Trading Volume (Nov 1, 2026)Approximately $1.51 billion [1]
Solana Daily Trading Volume (Nov 2, 2026)Approximately $2.00 billion [2]
XRP Price (Nov 2, 2026)$1.25–$1.26 [3][4][5]
Solana experienced significant downward pressure amidst widespread bearish sentiment. During November 1–2, 2026, the cryptocurrency market faced a bearish environment, largely influenced by a reported $6.3 billion Binance hack. In this context, Solana (SOL) traded within the $93–$96 range, displaying continued weakness and struggling to hold crucial support levels [1][2][3][4][5]. In contrast, its peer, XRP, demonstrated greater stability, consolidating around $1.25–$1.26 on November 2, maintaining a more stable position relative to SOL [3][4][5].
Solana's trading volume and price range highlighted its pronounced weakness. On November 1, Solana's daily trading volume reached approximately $1.51 billion, increasing to roughly $2.00 billion on November 2 [1][2]. This period was marked by a highly volatile and short-term speculative environment for Solana, further evidenced by the existence of a 15-minute prediction market on November 2, 2026, between 8:00 AM and 8:15 AM EST, targeting 'SOL $93.9295' [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Solana USD (SOL-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Solana Price Historycoingecko.com
  3. 3Assessing Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP's bottom after sharp correctionfxstreet.com
  4. 4Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Hold Steady Despite Binance Hack; Analyst Warns History Points to ‘Significant’ BTC Correction After Midterms — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  5. 5Crypto Market Analysis Today: Bitcoin After the Binance Hack - Pintu Academypintu.co.id
  6. 6Crypto SOL Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  7. 7Solana 15 Minute Markets: How SOL 15 Minute Markets Workdeadspin.com

8. Which spot exchanges contribute to the CF Benchmarks SOLUSDRTI, and what is the methodology used to calculate the real-time index price for this market's resolution?

Constituent ExchangesCoinbase, Kraken, Gemini, LMAX Digital, Bitstamp, and Crypto.com [1]
Data Effective DateNovember 2026 [1]
Price Calculation MethodAggregating and consolidating order book data to form a volume-weighted average price [2][3]
The SOLUSD_RTI includes six major cryptocurrency exchanges. As of November 2026, the CME CF Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) incorporates data from constituent exchanges such as Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, LMAX Digital, Bitstamp, and Crypto.com [1]. The real-time index price for this market is derived by collecting and combining order book data from these specified platforms [2][3].
The index calculation involves specific steps for aggregating order books. The methodology for determining the real-time index price follows a detailed process. First, order book data from all designated constituent exchanges is gathered [2][3]. This collected data is then consolidated into a single, comprehensive order book, which is subsequently uncrossed [2][3]. Finally, a volume-weighted average price is calculated, utilizing the bid and ask price-volume curves that emerge from this consolidation and uncrossing procedure [2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3CF Spot Ratesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com

9. Based on on-chain data from November 1-2, where is the next significant cluster of buy-side liquidity (support) for SOL located below the $94.00 price level?

Bid Wall at $92.6046,142 SOL (November 2) [1][2]
Hyperliquid Long Liquidations$2.2M at $92.27 [3]
Binance Liquidation Cluster$10.5M at $92.2357 [4]
Immediate significant support for SOL below $94.00 centered around $92.60-$92.70. On-chain data from November 1-2 indicated this primary cluster of buy-side liquidity (support), with specific bid walls reported as 46,142 SOL at $92.60 on November 2 and 29,749 SOL at $92.70 at the November 1 close [1][2]. Independent downside-liquidity data further identified a meaningful cluster in the $92.23-$92.27 area, including $2.2 million of Hyperliquid long liquidations at $92.27 and a $10.5 million Binance liquidation cluster at $92.2357 [3][4]. The $94.00 price level itself did not present as a reliable persistent bid, as bid walls in that area were either rapidly pulled on November 2 or partially consumed on November 1 [1][2].
A secondary support band emerged around $90-$89.96 amid downside market skew. This broader support included an $11.2 million liquidation cluster at $90.8642 and a $3.1 million Binance order-book wall at $89.9612 [4]. Other market commentary also identified $90 as an intermediate support level [5][6]. The overall market context during November 1-2 was skewed towards downside rather than a clean spot-support setup, with SOL trading near $94.15 on November 2 [3][7]. Aggregate positioning remained long-heavy with positive funding, and long-liquidation exposure was larger than short exposure [3][4][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  2. 2Solana 1 Nov 2026: walls, positioning, liquidity · Swiftedgeswiftedge.uk
  3. 3Solana (SOL) Liquidation Heatmap & Levels | LiqFlowliqflow.app
  4. 4Solana SOL Liquidation Heatmap & Liquidity Heatmap (SOLUSDT)pumpglass.com
  5. 5SOL Elliott Wave Analysis Signals Five-Wave Decline Amid $98M Liquidations | Woofun Researchwoofun.ai
  6. 6Solana Price Prediction: Whale Dumps 1.49M SOL, ETFs Bleedcoingabbar.com
  7. 7SOL Open Interest $4.07B, Funding Rate, Liquidations | TradRadartradradar.io

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of November 2, 2026, Solana (SOL) is under significant bearish pressure, with its price at approximately $95.48, having slipped below key technical levels including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs [1][2][3]. The primary drivers of this ongoing downward trend include record weekly net outflows from U.S.-listed spot SOL ETFs, which reached $71.47 million for the week ending October 30, 2026 [1][2][3]. Liquidations of highly leveraged long positions have also contributed to the pressure [1][2][3].
Upcoming dates for the Solana ecosystem may serve as focal points. The Solana Hacker House in London is scheduled for November 1–12, 2026 [4]. Additionally, the flagship Breakpoint 2026 conference is set to occur from November 15–17, 2026, at the Olympia Convention Centre in London [4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 02, 2026
  • Expiration: November 09, 2026
  • Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (4)
  1. 1Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  2. 2SOL's "Support" Isn't a Line. It's a Pile of Leveraged Longs. | AInvestainvest.com
  3. 3Solana price pressured as spot ETF outflows hit recordad-hoc-news.de
  4. 4Solana Events 2026–2027: Conferences, Hackathons and Hacker Houses | Solana Teamssolanateams.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020800-00: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020745-45: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020730-30: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020715-15: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020700-00: YES (Nov 02, 2026)