Short Answer

Solana (SOL) is likely to reach a price of $94.0947 between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM EST on November 2, priced by the market near 67%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Solana appears likely to hit $94.0947 due to record spot-SOL-ETF outflows.
  • Bearish technicals on November 2 showed SOL below $97.76 resistance.
  • A drop below $93.20 support risks significant long liquidation exposure.

Current Context

The specific SOL 15-minute contract for November 2, 2026, 7:45–8:00 AM EST, target $94.0947, was not found in the indexed results [1]. Nearby Robinhood markets include a 6:45–7:00 AM contract at $93.8148 [2]. For the 8:00 AM EST point-in-time settlement, Robinhood lists markets with bids: $93.50 at 90¢, $93.75 at 76¢, $94.25 at 20¢, and $94.50 at 8¢ [3]. Prediction-market evidence for the 8:00 AM EST settlement places the strongest probability mass below $94.25. Frenzy Capital reports 98% for at least $93.50, 94% for at least $93.75, 69% for at least $94.00, 32% for at least $94.25, and 6% for at least $94.50 [4]. Robinhood independently reports 20% for $94.25 or above and 8% for $94.50 or above [3]. Robinhood’s contract methodology settles on CF Benchmarks’ SOLUSDRTI, comparing the simple average of the final 60 seconds of the window with the preceding window’s final-60-second average, rounded to four decimals [1][2][5][6][3].
Broader market sentiment was bearish on November 2nd due to price action and outflows. SOL traded near $94.29–$95.48, reflecting a 7.01% decline over seven days and 20.96% over 30 days [7][8][9][10]. Spot SOL ETF outflows reached $71.47 million for the prior week, the largest since the product's launch [7][8]. Price remained below major EMAs around $98.08–$103.81, while RSI near 28.6–31 indicated oversold conditions, introducing some bounce risk [7][8][9]. Technical levels established immediate support near $93.20–$94.48 and resistance near $97.76–$99.96 [7][11][8][9]. A break below approximately $93.20 could open risk toward $88–$85, while reclaiming $98–$100 might support a recovery toward $103–$108 [7][11][8][9].
An inferred bearish-to-neutral outlook for the interval carries specific intraday risks. For the 7:45–8:00 AM EST interval and a target of $94.0947, a rough 25%–35% estimated chance exists for finishing at or above the target, with a 65%–75% chance below it. This assessment is an inference, based on the 8:00 AM ladder showing 69% at $94.00 or above but only 32% at $94.25 or above, combined with bearish ETF and technical flows, and acknowledged oversold-bounce risk [3][4][7][8]. Key intraday risks include a sharp oversold rebound, a liquidation cascade from heavily leveraged long positions, and volatility stemming from crypto or macro catalysts [7][8][12][9]. The bearish case strengthens with a move below $93.20; a sustained move above approximately $97.76–$100 would weaken it [7][8][9].
Sources (12)
  1. 1November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:45–4:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2SOL 15 min · 6:45–7:00 AM EST Crypto Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 8am EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 8am EST? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 4:45–5:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 2:30–2:45 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  8. 8Solana Price Prediction: Whale Dumps 1.49M SOL, ETFs Bleedcoingabbar.com
  9. 9Solana Price Forecast: SOL slides below key EMAs as ETF outflows peaktmgm.com
  10. 10SOL/USD Perpetual Futures (SOL/USD) Historical Data - Investing.com UKuk.investing.com
  11. 11SOL Price Prediction: Arrieche's $96 Target Arrives — Now the Support Must Prove Itself - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  12. 12SOL's "Support" Isn't a Line. It's a Pile of Leveraged Longs. | AInvestainvest.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A YES resolution occurs if the official and final value of SOL is strictly greater than $94.0947. A NO resolution occurs if the final value is less than or equal to $94.0947. The market expires on November 2, 2026, at 8:00 AM EST, at which point the final value will be determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

Public discussion does not identify a live or historical Solana (SOL) 15-minute prediction market with a specific target of $94.0947. This exact target is found in a Robinhood prediction market for HYPE [1], and a SOL spot price observation at $94.0947 was reported on November 2, 2026 [2][3]. While other SOL 15-minute prediction markets exist across platforms like Polymarket, Robinhood, and Public, they generally feature different price targets (e.g., $93.8527, $95.3610) and are often tied to specific historical dates, such as November 1, 2026 [4][5][6][7]. Consequently, no specific trader consensus, odds, or social media sentiment for a SOL 15-minute market targeting precisely $94.0947 can be established from the available sources [4][6].

Sources (7)
  1. 1HYPE 15 min · 8:30–8:45 PM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2BNB Pricelzzo.com
  3. 3Ethereum (ETH) Pricelzzo.com
  4. 4SOL Up or Down 15mpolymarket.com
  5. 5November 1, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:00–3:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6SOL 15 min · $95.3610 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7November 1, 2026: SOL 15 min · 11:00–11:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 76 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score45High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score76Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

5. What level of open interest in leveraged long positions, if liquidated by a price drop below the ~$93.20 support zone, could trigger a cascade pushing Solana further from the $94.0947 target?

Hyperliquid Initial Liquidation Exposure below $93.20~$2.2M [1]
Binance Cumulative Liquidation Exposure by $93.25~$9M [2]
Largest Hyperliquid Liquidation Cluster$3.6M at $91.08 [3]
Significant long liquidation exposure emerges if Solana drops below $93.20. A decline below the ~$93.20 support zone would initially trigger an estimated $2.2 million (M) of long-liquidation exposure on Hyperliquid [1]. Binance-based estimates indicate a cumulative ~$9M of exposure by $93.25 and approximately ~$17.5M near $92.05 [1][2]. Specific tracked wallet clusters on Hyperliquid show $206.6 thousand (K) at $93.66, $202.4K at $92.49, $161.8K at $92.25, and $311.6K at $92.02, with a significantly larger cluster of $3.6M at $91.08 [3][4].
A broader cascade is more likely below $92.5, fueled by long-skewed leverage. A sustained cascade, pushing Solana further from its $94.0947 target, is considered more plausible below $92.5 and particularly near $91.1, rather than solely from an initial breach of $93.20 [3][4]. The overall leverage environment for SOL is notably skewed towards long positions; Hyperliquid reports approximately $199M of long-liquidation exposure versus $196.6M in shorts across $395.6M of open interest [1][5]. Exchange-wide, SOL open interest is near $3.29 billion (B), with Binance accounts being 76.6% long [2]. However, a break below $93.20 does not guarantee a cascade; liquidation heatmaps model forced closures, and data providers warn that not all liquidation prices are revealed by exchange data [6][2][7]. The actual market impact depends on trade execution, the replenishment of bids, and whether the price subsequently reaches deeper liquidation clusters [6][2][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Solana (SOL) Liquidation Heatmap & Levels | LiqFlowliqflow.app
  2. 2Solana Liquidation Heatmap: Live SOL Liquidation Map & Levelscoinperps.com
  3. 3Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  4. 4SOL liquidation map — live levels on Hyperliquid | Undertowundertow.lat
  5. 5Solana (SOL) Liquidations Today, Funding Rate, Open Interest | Liqwallliqwall.com
  6. 6SOL Liquidation Heatmap — Solana Liquidation Levels & Open Interest · TradeLiveXtradelivex.com
  7. 7SOL Liquidation Heatmap: Live Levels on Binance | EdgeDepthedgedepth.com

6. What technical evidence from Solana's price chart, specifically its relationship to the support level near $93.20 and resistance at $97.76, validates the market's bearish outlook?

Solana (SOL) Trading Price$95.48 (on Nov. 2, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Resistance Level$97.76 [1][2]
Support Zone$93.14-$93.26 [3][4][5]
Solana's market position on November 2, 2026, favored a bearish outlook. The cryptocurrency was trading near $95.48, situated below its $97.76 resistance level and in close proximity to the critical $93.14-$93.26 support zone [1][2][3][4][5]. This alignment of price and key technical levels suggested limited upward potential before hitting resistance and minimal downward room before potentially testing support [1][2][3][4][5].
Technical evidence strongly favored bears, shown by SOL's inability to reclaim and sustain above $97.76 [1][2]. Recent price action demonstrated consistent selling pressure, with historical data showing closes falling from $102.31 on October 28 to $94.45 by November 1 [4][1][2]. This downward trajectory placed a 15-minute target near $94.0947 closer to the established support than to the $97.76 recovery threshold [4][1][2].
The immediate support zone offered little room before a breakdown. Identified between $93.14 and $93.26, intraday lows on November 2 were reported at $93.26 and $93.72 [3][4][5]. With the price hovering around $94-$95, it was only about 1%-2% above this critical support, suggesting limited buffer against a potential breakdown [3][4][5]. A broader bearish trend was reinforced by SOL trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered near 31/29.1 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained negative [1][2][5]. Although the RSI indicated near-oversold conditions, it did not confirm a reversal [1][2][5]. A decisive break or close below approximately $93.20, following rejection at $97.76, would further confirm continued downward movement in the 15-minute market [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  2. 2Solana Price Forecast: SOL Near $95 as ETF Outflows Hit $71.47Maafx.io
  3. 3Sol price today, 2 November 2026 — live chart & history | Tindextindex.app
  4. 4Solana USD (SOL-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Solana (SOL) Technical Analysis Today: Support, Resistance, RSI | COINOTAGen.coinotag.com

7. How does the selling pressure from recent spot SOL ETF outflows compare with sentiment signals from the derivatives market, such as perpetual futures funding rates?

U.S. Spot SOL Product Outflows (Oct. 26–30)$71.47M [1][2][3]
SOL Perpetual Funding Rate+0.0100% per 8 hours [4][5]
SOL Open Interest$4.05B [4][5]
U.S. spot SOL products experienced significant outflows, setting a weekly record. These products recorded substantial negative flows totaling approximately $71.47 million across five consecutive trading days from October 26 to October 30 [1][2][3]. This period included about $10.7 million in outflows on October 30 [1][2][3] and represented the largest weekly withdrawal for these products [1][2][3]. While significant for the products themselves, amounting to roughly 5% of ETF assets over the week, these outflows were comparatively small relative to the broader SOL market, estimated at approximately 1% of the five-day exchange turnover [6][2].
Derivatives market signals, however, do not indicate broad capitulation. Instead, derivatives show mildly bullish or crowded sentiment [4][5]. SOL perpetual funding was positive at approximately +0.0100% per 8 hours, suggesting that long positions were paying shorts [4][5]. Open interest stood at around $4.05 billion, increasing by 0.22% over 24 hours, and maintained a long/short ratio of 3.72 (78.8% long) [4][5]. This combination indicates conflicting signals, with persistent direct selling pressure from ETF flows contrasting with futures longs retaining directional optimism without extreme leverage costs [6][5].
This scenario presents elevated downside and liquidation risks. Particularly if support fails, the high long skew suggests that ETF-led weakness could trigger stop-outs or a long liquidation cascade [6][5]. However, the presence of positive funding rates and SOL trading near $94.50 shortly before the November 2 7:45–8:00 AM EST window provides some evidence against an aggressively bearish immediate signal for that 15-minute resolution [4][5][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Solana Spot ETFs Set Weekly Outflow Record at $71.47 Million | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  2. 2Solana ETF Flowsbykaranteli.com
  3. 3Solana price prediction: $111 million in wallet transferscryptoticker.io
  4. 4Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  5. 5SOL Open Interest $4.05B, Funding Rate, Liquidations | TradRadartradradar.io
  6. 6US SOL spot ETF recorded a single-day net outflow of $10.742 million.mexc.fm

8. What is the historical deviation between the CF Benchmarks SOLUSDRTI index and the last-traded price on Coinbase during previous high-volatility windows?

Ordinary Cross-Venue Differencesa few hundredths of a percent [1]
SOL Realized Volatility (7-day)48.0% (as of November 1, 2026) [2][3]
SOL Realized Volatility (30-day)41.3% (as of November 1, 2026) [2][3]
Historical deviation between SOLUSDRTI and Coinbase prices cannot be quantified. The available research does not provide public, source-backed historical data of time-aligned SOLUSDRTI observations and Coinbase SOL-USD last trades during prior high-volatility windows [1][4][5][6]. Consequently, a precise historical deviation distribution or a rigorous quantification of the historical deviation between the CF Benchmarks SOLUSDRTI index and Coinbase's last-traded price during such periods is unsupported by the provided information [1][4][5][6].
Cross-venue differences are typically small, but volatility suggests spikes. While ordinary cross-venue differences usually amount to only a few hundredths of a percent, brief spikes can occur during rapid market movements [1]. Recent figures indicate SOL's realized volatility at 48.0% over 7 days and 41.3% over 30 days as of November 1, 2026, suggesting heightened short-term market noise, though these metrics do not directly quantify the SOLUSDRTI-versus-Coinbase deviation [2][3]. It is important to note that SOLUSDRTI functions as a real-time benchmark, derived from consolidated order-book data across multiple constituent exchanges, including Coinbase, and therefore does not directly reflect Coinbase's last-traded price [7][8][9][10].
Accurate deviation analysis requires synchronized, licensed historical data. To precisely address the historical deviation question, one would require licensed one-second history for SOLUSDRTI and tick or one-second last-trade history for Coinbase SOL-USD, precisely aligned by timestamp [7][8][1][4][5]. The deviation could then be calculated as 100 × (Coinbase last trade - SOLUSDRTI) / SOLUSDRTI. Without these synchronized datasets, any numerical historical deviation would remain unsubstantiated [7][8][1][4][5].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Solana Coinbase Premium Chart — CryptoKeyholecryptokeyhole.com
  2. 2Chainlink vs Pyth oracle deviation 2026 · OpenChainBenchopenchainbench.com
  3. 3BTC, ETH, and SOL Volatility: RV and DVOL — TRdesktrdesk.com
  4. 4SOL/USD (SOLUSD) Historical Market Data — Every Tick, €1 a Daycryptostruct.com
  5. 5Coinbase Historical Market Data & Tick Data — CryptoStructcryptostruct.com
  6. 6Analyze · SOL-USD — Coinbase — CryptoStructcryptostruct.com
  7. 7CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  8. 8CME CF Solana-Dollar Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  9. 9Constituentdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  10. 10CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com

9. What macro-level catalysts or shifts in Solana's oversold RSI could trigger a price rebound toward the $94.0947 target before the Nov 2, 8:00 AM EST settlement?

Monthly SOL ETF Outflows~$144 million (October) [1][2]
Daily RSI~27.3-28.8 [1][3][4][5]
Long/Short Imbalance~3.38 [2][5][6]
Macro-level shifts could drive Solana's price upward significantly. A primary macro catalyst for a Solana price rebound towards the $94.0947 target involves a broad crypto risk-on reversal, specifically if Bitcoin recovers above approximately $77,000, which would ease Bitcoin dominance and improve overall market sentiment [1][2][7]. Additionally, relief from potential contagion concerns following the reported Binance hack could provide a boost, contingent on functional withdrawals and contained laundering pressure, especially since Binance has reportedly replenished 90%-95% of affected assets [2][8][7]. Conversely, a rebound could also be triggered by a sudden halt in dominant bearish flow risks, such as the approximately $144 million in U.S. spot SOL ETF outflows recorded in October, or a reported $104 million SOL sale by a single large wallet [1][2].
Solana's oversold RSI suggests a rebound, but leverage poses risks. As of November 2, Solana was technically oversold, with daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings between 27.3 and 28.8, indicating a potential relief bounce [1][3][4][5]. However, this oversold condition does not guarantee a trend reversal, particularly given a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and price trading below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) [1][3][4][5]. A significant caution is that prevailing leverage and momentum, evidenced by positive funding rates and an approximate 3.38 long/short imbalance, could override oversold signals, allowing the RSI to remain low during a sustained downtrend [2][5][6]. For a short-term move towards the $94.0947 target, the practical trigger would involve immediate spot buying to absorb leveraged-long liquidations, ideally turning the RSI upward and reclaiming the intraday Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) near $94.53, while maintaining support around the $92.28-$93.28 range [4][2][5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  2. 2SOL's "Support" Isn't a Line. It's a Pile of Leveraged Longs. | AInvestainvest.com
  3. 3Solana RSI Today: MACD and Moving Averages | Keelusekeel.io
  4. 4Solana cae bajo sus promedios clave el 2 de noviembre de 2026 - DiarioBitcoindiariobitcoin.com
  5. 5Solana (SOL) cae bajo sus medias clave y pone a prueba el soporte, 2 de noviembre de 2026 - DiarioBitcoindiariobitcoin.com
  6. 6Solana Hits Oversold RSI as Ether Lags: Which Bounces First?cryptodaily.co.uk
  7. 7Latest Solana (SOL) Price Analysiscoinmarketcap.com
  8. 8Solana RSI Nears 30 as FBI Says Stolen Binance Assets Shift Primarily Into Ether | TokenPosttokenpost.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The dominant bearish catalyst for Nov. 2, 2026, was record U.S. spot-SOL-ETF weekly net outflows of $71.47 million during Oct. 26–30, reportedly the fourth consecutive weekly outflow [1][2][3]. SOL traded around $94.04–$95.48, with its RSI near 31, indicating a potentially oversold state, yet it remained below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs at approximately $103.81, $99.96, and $98.08, respectively [1][2]. Resistance was identified near $97.76, with a downside reference near $88.42 [1][2].
Short-horizon order-flow data for SOL perpetuals showed a session range around $93.75–$95.89, with a bid wall near $94.40/$94.00 and an ask wall near $95.60; estimated liquidation levels clustered around $94.25–$94.75 [4]. Broader crypto risk sentiment was cautious, with rotation toward Bitcoin, elevated Treasury-yield/U.S.-dollar pressure, derivatives liquidations, and reduced speculative leverage potentially amplifying intraday SOL volatility [5][6]. While Solana ecosystem developments, including Agave v4.4.0 and Firedancer v26.10.5 releases and expanding tokenized real-world-asset activity, provided longer-term fundamental support, they may not significantly impact a single 15-minute contract [7][5][8].
The relevant Robinhood contracts define SOL 15-minute outcomes by comparing the final 60-second average to the starting 60-second average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSDRTI for a 'Yes' resolution [9][10][11]. The quoted target level, such as the $94.0947 for the 7:45–8:00 AM ET contract, served as a reference rather than a guaranteed market price, and the precise contract details and final resolution were not verifiable [9][10][11][12]. This directional comparison means a minor price movement can determine the outcome, even if spot SOL stays near the target [9][10][11][13].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 02, 2026
  • Expiration: November 09, 2026
  • Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (13)
  1. 1Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  2. 2Solana price pressured as spot ETF outflows hit recordad-hoc-news.de
  3. 3Solana Spot ETFs Set Weekly Outflow Record at $71.47 Million | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  4. 4Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  5. 5Solana (SOLUSD) Is up 1.02% on Nov 2: Key Drivers to Watchtradingkey.com
  6. 6Solana's Record ETF Outflow Is Real - and Smaller Than It Sounds | AInvestainvest.com
  7. 7Solana News Nov 2: Google Custody and Akash Vote Recapcoingabbar.com
  8. 8Solana Weekly Recap (November 1, 2026): Binance Incident, Agave v4.4.0, Ondo Portfolios | SOLANA·HUBsolanahub.de
  9. 9November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 3:15–3:30 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  10. 10November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 2:30–2:45 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  11. 11November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 4:45–5:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  12. 12November 2, 2026: SOL 15 min · 1:00–1:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  13. 13SOL Up or Down - 15 Min — 2026-11-02 02:00 UTC | Unhedged.ggunhedged.gg

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020745-45: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020730-30: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020715-15: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020700-00: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020645-45: YES (Nov 02, 2026)