Short Answer

SOL is not expected to reach the $94.2972 target price within the 15-minute window from 7:30AM to 7:45AM EST on November 2, with the market pricing this outcome at 26.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The target price is likely given SOL traded near $94.00-$94.50 with liquidity walls.
  • Bearish pressure from $71.47 million ETF outflows limits upward movement.
  • Binance withdrawal incident and Agave v4.4.0 release may increase volatility.

Current Context

Solana prediction markets targeted $93-$94 amid price declines. On November 2, 2026, prediction markets for Solana (SOL) heavily favored price levels near or above $93-$94 EST during morning sessions [1][2][3][4]. SOL traded around $95.48, experiencing bearish pressure [5]. This followed five consecutive weeks of losses and record weekly outflows of $71.47 million from US-listed spot SOL ETFs [5].
Solana recently saw significant ecosystem and technical developments. Ecosystem updates include an unauthorized withdrawal incident involving Binance, reported at approximately $6.3 billion [6]. Other developments feature the release of Agave v4.4.0 and the launch of seven new real-world asset (RWA) portfolios on Solana by Ondo [6][7]. Technical updates include the merger of SIMD-0567 on November 1, 2026, optimizing the Associated Token Account program [8]. Google also provided a preview of its Multi-Party Compute (MPC) platform for institutional custody [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Crypto SOL Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  2. 2SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 3am EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 8am EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 6am EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  6. 6Solana Weekly Recap (November 1, 2026): Binance Incident, Agave v4.4.0, Ondo Portfolios | SOLANA·HUBsolanahub.de
  7. 7Latest Solana News - (SOL) Future Outlook, Trends & Market Insightscoinmarketcap.com
  8. 8News — Solana Compasssolanacompass.com
  9. 9Solana News Nov 2: Google Custody and Akash Vote Recapcoingabbar.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this Kalshi market, a YES resolution occurs if the official and final value of SOL at 7:45 AM ET is $94.2972 or higher. A NO resolution is triggered if this value is lower than $94.2972. The market expires on November 2, 7:45 AM EST. The official and final value is determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

As of November 2, 2026, Solana (SOL) is experiencing bearish pressure, with its price around $95.48 and trending lower due to weak technical indicators, record ETF outflows, and declining market sentiment [1][2][3]. The 15-minute timeframe shows mixed but increasingly bearish signals, including patterns like bear flags, while social media sentiment has also become more cautious or bearish, with bullish coverage dropping to 43% [3][4][5][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  2. 2Solana Monthly Sentiment Reports: Every Month Since 2022cfgi.io
  3. 3Solana narratives and sentiment | ReadTheTapereadthetape.ai
  4. 4Solana 15-Minute Up or Down Chart — Live Polymarket Dataupdowncharts.com
  5. 5SOL Chart Patterns Today: Forming & Confirmed · ClosedCandleclosedcandle.com
  6. 6Solana (SOL) Price, Social Sentiment & AltRank | LunarCrushlunarcrush.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 67 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score0Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score67Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
82Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $94.2972—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $94.2972—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $94.297295
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
0Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~2% of a 20.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 2.9c slippage (~14% of a 20.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $94.2972Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 2, 2026

5. What technical catalysts, such as the Google MPC platform integration or the Agave v4.4.0 release, could impact Solana's price volatility before the November 2 morning session?

Agave v4.4.0 Feature ActivationNovember 9, 2026 [1][2]
Google MPC Service PreviewOctober 28, 2026 [3]
Akash Network Vote ConclusionNovember 2, 2026, 16:02 CET [1][4]
Two significant technical developments may influence Solana's price volatility. Agave v4.4.0 was released on October 28, 2026, and was recommended for general adoption on mainnet-beta on October 30, 2026, with feature activation for related protocol updates tentatively scheduled for November 9, 2026 [1][2]. Concurrently, Google previewed its Multi-Party Compute (MPC) crypto custody service on October 28, 2026 [3][5]. While Alphabet has already begun utilizing this service for Solana, public documentation still indicates Solana support as 'coming soon,' with general commercial availability planned for early 2027 [3][6].
Other market factors include a governance vote and Solana's technical outlook. The Solana market also faces a governance vote concerning the Akash Network's potential migration to the Solana mainnet, which concludes on November 2, 2026, at 16:02 CET, after the November 2 morning session resolution timeframe [1][4]. As of November 2, 2026, Solana (SOL) is trading in a technical setup described as a 'coiled spring,' with immediate support levels at $95.26 and $92.34 [7]. The asset remains under significant pressure, trading below all major exponential moving averages [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Solana Weekly Recap (November 1, 2026): Binance Incident, Agave v4.4.0, Ondo Portfolios | SOLANA·HUBsolanahub.de
  2. 2Agave v4.4.0 Recommended for Solana Mainnet: Anza Upgrade Call, RPC Changes, Nov 9 Feature Window | Solana Compasssolanacompass.com
  3. 3Google Multi-Party Compute: Google Cloud MPC Crypto Custody for Banks, Solana and Ethereum | Solana Compasssolanacompass.com
  4. 4Solana News Nov 2: Google Custody and Akash Vote Recapcoingabbar.com
  5. 5Google Unveils MPC Crypto Security Built to Survive One...cryptonews.net
  6. 6Google Launches MPC-Based Crypto Custody Platform for...kucoin.com
  7. 7Solana Breakpoint London 2026: Boris Johnson, 8,000 Attendees and 5 Announcements That Could Lift SOL Back Above $100 — icrypto24icrypto24.com

6. What do the record weekly outflows from US-listed spot SOL ETFs in late October and early November 2026 reveal about institutional sentiment?

Weekly Net Outflows from SOL ETFs$71.47 million (October 26–30, 2026) [1][2][3]
Consecutive Weeks of WithdrawalsFour weeks [1][2][3]
Prediction Market Price Target$94.25-$94.75 (week ending November 2, 2026) [4][5]
Solana ETFs experienced significant outflows, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment. US-listed spot Solana (SOL) ETFs recorded weekly net outflows of $71.47 million for the week of October 26–30, 2026, signaling a notable change in institutional sentiment [1][2][3]. This shift is characterized by a broader market rotation towards Bitcoin and a more cautious, risk-averse approach concerning altcoins such as Solana [3][6].
Outflows mark a trend but represent minor impact on Solana's value. These record outflows represent four consecutive weeks of withdrawals for the relatively new Solana ETF complex [1][2][3]. However, they constitute only a small fraction of Solana's total market capitalization, indicating their role as a signal of marginal institutional positioning rather than a direct reflection of long-term asset value [3].
Short-term prediction markets show high volatility for Solana contracts. Short-term prediction markets, including 'SOL 15 min' contracts on platforms like Kalshi, exhibit high volatility and binary sentiment [4][5]. For the week ending November 2, 2026, these contracts frequently resolved based on price targets between $94.25 and $94.75 [4][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Solana Spot ETFs Set Weekly Outflow Record at $71.47 Million | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  2. 2Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  3. 3Solana's Record ETF Outflow Is Real - and Smaller Than It Sounds | AInvestainvest.com
  4. 4SOL 15m Prediction Market Data | DepthFeeddepthfeed.com
  5. 5Kalshi Markets Resolved in 2026 | CoinRithm (4) | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Solana Price Analysis: $70 Support in Jeopardy as ETF Interest Fades (2026)modernpapyrus.org

7. How did Solana's network transaction volume and fee revenue in early November 2026 compare to its primary L1 competitors like Ethereum?

Solana 30-day Network Fees$22.0M (early November 2026) [1][2]
Ethereum 30-day Network Fees$22.1M (early November 2026) [1][2]
Solana Q3 2026 Non-Vote Transactions14.2B [1][3]
In early November 2026, Solana's network fees nearly matched Ethereum's. Solana demonstrated strong network activity, generating 30-day network fees that closely paralleled Ethereum's. Solana reported $22.0 million in network fees, just behind Ethereum's $22.1 million for the identical period [1][2]. This performance was notable given Solana's significantly lower per-transaction costs, with simple transfers typically costing less than $0.001 [1][2].
Solana sustained substantial transaction volumes, though DEX activity lagged Ethereum. Solana's network maintained substantial activity, achieving a record 14.2 billion non-vote transactions in the third quarter of 2026 [1][3]. Despite this high transaction volume, Solana's daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes in early November 2026 reached $953.37 million, which was lower than Ethereum's $1.89 billion [1][3]. Additionally, stablecoin transactions on Solana experienced a significant surge, processing almost $2 trillion in monthly transactions [1][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1SOL vs. ETH L1 Wars: Transaction Fees Tell a Story — November 2, 2026 | AInvestainvest.com
  2. 2Crypto Revenue Rankings: Blockchains & Protocols, November 2026castlelabs.io
  3. 3Top 10 Cryptos Today: Altcoins Rally Against Fear as ETH Hits $2,269en.shahrebours.com

8. What are the most reliable data sources for tracking aggregated open interest and funding rates for Solana perpetual futures across Binance, Bybit, and OKX?

Primary AggregatorCoinGlass, widely recognized for real-time and historical SOL perpetual futures data across major exchanges [1][2][3]
Specialized Professional ToolSharpe Terminal, offering granular derivatives data and institutional-grade metrics for Solana [4][5]
Fastest Update FrequencyXOOMAR, providing live tracking of SOL funding rates and open interest, updated every minute via API [6]
Several platforms reliably aggregate Solana perpetual futures open interest and funding rates. CoinGlass is a widely recognized primary aggregator, providing real-time and historical data for Solana (SOL) perpetual futures across major exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX [1][2][3]. Kodexius offers transparent, frequently updated aggregated data every 5 minutes, covering SOL's open interest and funding rates on similar exchanges [7][8]. For even more frequent updates, XOOMAR provides live tracking of SOL funding rates and open interest, updated every minute with API access, across Binance, Bybit, OKX, and other major venues [6].
Specialized tools offer granular derivatives data for advanced market analysis. Sharpe Terminal is a professional platform offering granular derivatives data, including aggregated open interest and funding rates for Solana, with an emphasis on institutional-grade metrics and API access [4][5]. Complementing these, other platforms such as Coinalyze, Crypton.dev, Coinperps, and PerpFinder also provide various API endpoints and real-time dashboards for market analysis of aggregated perpetual futures data [9][10][11][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Solana Futures Market Data, Liquidations, Open Interest, Long/Short Ratio, Funding Rate | CoinGlasscoinglass.com
  2. 2Crypto Data API: Futures, Spot, Options & ETF – Tick-by-Tick Market Data | CoinGlasscoinglass.com
  3. 3SOL Funding Rate | Live Data & History Charts | CoinGlasscoinglass.com
  4. 4Solana Futures: OI, Funding, Liquidations | Sharpe Terminalsharpe.ai
  5. 5Futures API | Sharpe Docssharpe.ai
  6. 6SOL Funding Rates | Live Across Binance, Bybit, OKX | XOOMARxoomar.com
  7. 7Solana (SOL) Futures: Open Interest & Funding Ratekodexius.com
  8. 8Crypto Futures: Open Interest, Funding & Volume by Coin | Kodexiuskodexius.com
  9. 9Open Interest, Funding Rate, Liquidation and Long/Short Ratio - Individual Chartscoinalyze.net
  10. 10Cryptocurrency Futures Market Data: Open Interest, Funding...coinalyze.net
  11. 11Crypton — Real-time Crypto Derivatives APIcrypton.dev
  12. 12Coinperps: Real-Time Crypto Derivatives Data & Market Analyticscoinperps.com
  13. 13PerpFinder API: Free Perp Market-Data Endpointsperpfinder.com

9. How might the market-wide sentiment shift following the unauthorized Binance withdrawal incident influence Solana's liquidity on centralized exchanges leading into November 2?

Incident DateOctober 29, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Total Unauthorized Withdrawal$6.3 billion [1][2][3][4][5]
Binance Net Outflows as of Nov 2over $3.6 billion [4][6][5]
Unauthorized Binance withdrawal severely impacted market sentiment, raising Solana liquidity concerns. On October 29, 2026, Binance experienced an unauthorized withdrawal totaling $6.3 billion across multiple chains, which included the theft of approximately 970,522 SOL from the Solana network [1][2][3][4][5]. This incident immediately heightened market caution and contributed to broader market volatility, leading to a contraction in Solana's decentralized exchange (DEX) liquidity [4][5][6].
Significant capital flight from Binance exacerbated Solana's liquidity and volatility issues. Following the reopening of withdrawals on November 1, Binance experienced substantial capital flight, recording over $3.6 billion in net outflows by November 2 [4][6][5]. Concurrently, on November 1, 2026, the perpetrator began converting the stolen SOL into BTC via Relay Protocol, which further intensified market pressure [1][3][4]. This exodus of capital from Binance specifically contributed to reduced DEX liquidity across multiple networks, including Solana [4][6][5]. Prediction markets for SOL continue to reflect caution regarding Solana's short-term price momentum and volatility, driven by ongoing security worries and large-scale outflows [7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Tibane Labs - Solana R&Dtibane.net
  2. 2Crypto giant Binance hit by hack suspected to be largest in...bbc.com
  3. 3Solana Security Wikisolanasecuritywiki.xyz
  4. 4Binance records $6 billion outflows after starting withdrawals, less then 4% of total holdingscoindesk.com
  5. 5Solana & Altcoin DEXs Face Liquidity Crunch After $6.3B Binancefomonewz.com
  6. 6Binance says exit rush slowing down as users weigh...investing.com
  7. 7Solana 15-Minute Up or Down: Will SOL Close Higher or Lower?pariflow.com
  8. 815 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  9. 9SOL 15m Prediction Market Data | DepthFeeddepthfeed.com
  10. 10SOL price up in next 15 mins?: Live Odds (50% Chance) | ContractTaxcontracttax.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

SOL traded between $94.10-$94.50 on November 2, 2026, at 7:30 AM EST, maintaining volatility near $94. Liquidity walls were observed at $94.00 and $94.50 [1]. Bearish pressures included record weekly SOL ETF outflows totaling $71.47 million [2] and continuing implications from a $6.3 billion Binance security incident involving stolen SOL [3][4]. Technical indicators pointed to potential downside toward support levels at $80-$90 [5]. Prediction markets showed active betting on short-term price thresholds around $93-$94 throughout November 2 morning, indicating uncertainty and compressed hourly trading ranges [6][1][7].
Offsetting these dynamics were several bullish or neutral developments. The real-world asset (RWA) ecosystem experienced continued expansion, reaching $5 billion [4]. Institutional interest also emerged in new custody solutions, exemplified by Google's Multi-Party Compute [8]. Further technical network upgrades, including Firedancer v26.10.5 and Agave v4.4.0, provided ongoing fundamental support [9][5][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 02, 2026
  • Expiration: November 09, 2026
  • Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Solana 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  2. 2Where is Solana heading next after the highest weekly withdrawals since their launch?fxstreet.com
  3. 3Latest Solana (SOL) News Updatecoinmarketcap.com
  4. 4Solana Weekly Recap (November 1, 2026): Binance Incident, Agave v4.4.0, Ondo Portfolios | SOLANA·HUBsolanahub.de
  5. 5Solana (SOLUSD) Is up 1.02% on Nov 2: Key Drivers to Watchtradingkey.com
  6. 6Crypto SOL Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  7. 7Buy Solana - SOL Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com
  8. 8Solana News Nov 2: Google Custody and Akash Vote Recapcoingabbar.com
  9. 9Solana price weighs Alpenglow upgrade against demand concernsad-hoc-news.de

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020730-30: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020715-15: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020700-00: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020645-45: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXSOL15M-26NOV020630-30: NO (Nov 02, 2026)