XRP 15 min · $1.2801 target

Binance's proof of reserves verification stabilized XRP's market sentiment and price. On November 2, 2026, Binance completed its zero-knowledge proof of reserves (PoR) for XRP, confirming 1:1 backing as of the October 31 snapshot. This verification also noted that approximately 95% of stolen assets had been replenished using company funds ^[1][2][3]. The successful PoR eased systemic counterparty fears and stabilized market sentiment, contributing to XRP's price recovery from $1.242 support to $1.253. The hourly MACD histogram crossed positive, and RSI-6 climbed ^[5]. On November 2-3, 2026, XRP traded at approximately $1.25, showing modest positive momentum of 0.1-0.43% over the preceding 24 hours ^[4][5].

Despite the positive PoR, outflows and rumored liquidations pose ongoing risks. The PoR verification represents a snapshot rather than a continuous guarantee, and several risk factors could influence XRP's trading volume and volatility ahead of the November 3 resolution window ^[5][6][7]. These include persistent spot outflows from Binance, which processed approximately $3.64 billion in net outflows during the first 9.5 hours after reopening withdrawals on November 1, 2026 ^[4][5]. Additionally, rumored liquidation of approximately 473 million XRP from Evernorth and scrutiny over 233 million XRP linked to a multi-chain exploit could create structural sell pressure. These factors may cap near-term breakout attempts below the $1.257 EMA-99 resistance ^[5]. The prediction market's target of $1.2801 represents a 2.4% upside from the current $1.25 price level ^[8].

On-chain metrics largely support a bearish XRP outlook to $1.20 ^[1]. This aligns with Polymarket traders' 79% consensus for an XRP dip to the $1.20 level by early November 2026 ^[1]. Bearish signals include significant whale sell orders and sell-side dominance across both spot and futures markets, with the spot market exhibiting 'heating conditions' and cautious sentiment ^[4]. XRP's long-to-short ratio stood at 0.90, reinforcing a bearish perspective ^[4]. Data from late October 2026 further showed XRP moving onto exchanges for potential sale, evidenced by a fall in wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP and an approximate 47 million XRP increase in exchange-linked balances ^[3]. The Fear and Greed Index also registered 26 (Fear) ^[5], while Ripple's release of 300 million XRP from escrow on November 1, 2026, could amplify selling pressure ^[2]. Technically, XRP trades around $1.25-$1.28, below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 37 indicating subdued momentum, and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ^[4][5][6]. The asset experienced a 14.2% decline over 30 days, losing its $1.25 base and showing a widening death cross gap between EMAs ^[2][7].

However, certain metrics suggest potential short-term bullish counter-trends for XRP. Wallets holding at least 10 million XRP tokens now account for approximately 68.5% of the total supply, marking the highest concentration since November 2022 ^[3]. This high concentration implies accumulation by major whales, which complicates the prevailing bearish narrative ^[3]. Additionally, XRP experienced a short-term upward breakout on November 3, 2026, achieving a 2.1% gain in 24 hours, which suggests immediate bullish momentum ^[2]. XRP funding rates also turned positive on October 30, 2026, reaching 0.0065% by November 3, indicating that long positions are paying shorts, a signal typically associated with mildly bullish sentiment ^[4]. Furthermore, an upcoming XRP Ledger amendment, fixCleanup3_4_0, is scheduled for November 4, 2026, and is expected to mitigate risks for stablecoins on the ledger ^[2].

XRP's symmetrical triangle breakout retest signals potential long-term bullish momentum. XRP recently completed a retest of a seven-year-old symmetrical triangle breakout, which originated from the November 2024 rally, suggesting a potential rebound and increased bullish momentum ^[3]. Following this retest, the price remains above its triangle breakout zone near $1.09. Analysts are observing the $1.50 level as a prospective next target, noting that chart structures of this magnitude frequently precede significant price movements once resistance is overcome ^[4].

However, XRP exhibits a bearish near-term bias from technical indicators. Despite the bullish implications derived from the symmetrical triangle, XRP traded at $1.251 on November 3, 2026, maintaining a bearish near-term bias ^[1]. This bias is evident as XRP holds below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 37, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a slightly negative reading ^[1].

Broader market sentiment and short-term predictions also lean bearish. Further indicators on November 3, 2026, include XRP's Fear & Greed Index, which registered 27 (Fear), marking a 20-point decrease over seven days ^[2]. Moreover, open interest has declined by 16.78% over the past 30 days, settling at $2.90 billion, with liquidations predominantly affecting long positions at 92.5% ^[2]. The November 2026 price prediction for XRP targets $1.28, within an expected range of $1.20 to $1.33. For this period, $1.27 acts as immediate interim resistance and the 20-day EMA at $1.3098 represents the initial moving-average hurdle ^[5].

Specific XRP price data preceding 'fixCleanup3_4_0' activation is unavailable. The provided research does not contain information detailing XRP's historical price action in the hours directly before a major XRP Ledger network amendment, such as 'fixCleanup3_4_0', was activated. This particular amendment faced a postponement, with its activation date moved to November 4, 2026, a delay that introduced considerable uncertainty into the market ^[1][2].

XRP experienced volatility earlier in October 2026 amidst amendment delays. Although immediate pre-activation data is not present, price information from earlier in October 2026 is available. XRP was observed trading approximately at $1.31 on October 19, 2026 ^[3][2]. Prior to this, earlier in the month, XRP had maintained stability around $1.39 for a three-day period. This period of stability followed a 12% decline, as XRP's value fell from $1.4970 to $1.3177 between October 6 and October 8, 2026 ^[3][2]. Market participants were closely observing validator support and the potential for additional delays or issues with validator consensus, which were factors that could exacerbate existing uncertainties regarding XRP's price trajectory in the wake of the amendment's deferment ^[1][2].

XRP has demonstrated increasing divergence from Bitcoin, particularly in recent market performance. On November 3, 2026, XRP notably outperformed Bitcoin (BTC), rising by 2.50% to $1.2808, while BTC increased by 1.44% to $77,889.3 ^[1]. This represented an outperformance of approximately 1.06 percentage points for XRP on that day. A similar trend occurred on November 1, 2026, when XRP gained around 1.4%, contrasting with a decline of about 1.3% for Bitcoin and 0.7% for Ether, suggesting relative strength and potential sector rotation ^[3]. Emerging year-over-year data also supports this increasing divergence between the two cryptocurrencies ^[4].

Significant positive catalysts have failed to provide a sustained upward lift for XRP. Despite experiencing major regulatory clearance in August 2025, the launch of seven spot ETFs in the United States, and Ripple's corporate valuation reaching $50 billion following a $750 million buyback in March 2026, alongside numerous licensing and partnership deals, the token's price fell by 72% ^[2]. This highlights that even substantial positive news and corporate milestones have not resulted in a sustained upward movement for XRP's value. Historically, the correlation between BTC and XRP decreased significantly during XRP-specific regulatory events, such as in July 2023, demonstrating XRP's sensitivity to asset-specific news and legal developments ^[5].

BNY's digital-asset custody platform began supporting XRP and RLUSD on November 3, 2026, marking a significant institutional adoption milestone ^[1][2]. Ripple's national trust bank charter is approved, but has no start date ^[1][2]. Separately, Ripple re-locked 700 million XRP back into programmed escrow on November 1, 2026, leaving only 300 million XRP free from the 1 billion token monthly unlock ^[3]. These relocked amounts are scheduled for release in June and July 2029 ^[3].

The GraniteShares 3x Long XRP Daily ETF and 3x Short XRP Daily ETF registration was delayed to November 30, 2026, via an SEC amendment filed on October 26, 2026 ^[1]. This is a proposed effective date rather than a guaranteed launch date ^[1]. Key November 2026 catalyst dates include midterm elections and Binance proof-of-reserves on November 3, an XRP Ledger maintenance window on November 4, post-Swell price watch on November 5, and an ETF decision cluster on November 15 ^[1][4][2]. A further catalyst is the November 30, 2026, GraniteShares leveraged ETF effective date ^[1][4][2].