Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Gadi Eizenkot to be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Gadi Eizenkot leads, backed by strong polling data from late July 2026. Benjamin Netanyahu, while incumbent, faces headwinds from ongoing trials and past events. * Naftali Bennett's support appears to be declining in recent July 2026 polling data.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naftali Bennett | 7.0% | 7.1% | Recent polling indicates declining support for his Together party. |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 33.0% | 27.2% | Ongoing corruption trials, the October 7, 2023 security failure, and an ICC warrant weigh on his viability. |
| Amir Ohana | 0.2% | 0.2% | No evidence supports his viability as a Prime Minister candidate in current polling or analyses. |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 5.3% | 5.4% | He is not identified as a leading contender in current polling or market analyses. |
| Yair Golan | 0.2% | 0.2% | No evidence supports his viability as a Prime Minister candidate in current polling or analyses. |
Current Context
As of August 2026, prediction markets actively speculate on the election outcome [^] [^] [^] . 2026" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. Traders frequently cite Gadi Eizenkot as a leading potential successor to Prime Minister Netanyahu [^][^][^]. Benjamin Netanyahu himself remains a significant contender in these markets [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This contract shows no trading activity. The price, which reflects the probability of Benjamin Netanyahu becoming the next Prime Minister, has been static and purely notional. It has drifted sideways within a tight 250 basis point range, from a high of 8.0% to a low of 5.5%. The market opened at 7.0% and currently sits at 6.5%. With zero contracts traded, these price fluctuations are not driven by trader activity or reactions to news. They are likely adjustments by an automated market maker in an illiquid environment.
The complete absence of volume is the most significant feature of this market. It indicates that no capital has been committed to either support or oppose the proposition. Consequently, the price action does not reflect any market sentiment or conviction regarding Netanyahu's political future. Standard technical indicators like support and resistance levels are not applicable here, as no trades have occurred to establish them.
The market's price has not reacted to any external events, such as the setting of the election date for October 27, 2026. The sideways drift within a very low probability band suggests a baseline expectation that his return to power is a long-shot outcome. However, without any trading volume, this price is an untested quote rather than a consensus view backed by capital.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
An outcome resolves to "YES" if a listed individual is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or any earlier election. The market resolves to "Other" if no qualifying Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Only formally sworn-in Prime Ministers are counted, excluding interim or caretaker roles, with official Israeli government information or a consensus of credible reporting serving as resolution sources.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | $0.53 | $0.48 | 53% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | $0.34 | $0.67 | 33% |
| Naftali Bennett | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Gideon Sa’ar | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Amir Ohana | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Benny Gantz | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Gilad Erdan | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Yair Golan | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Yariv Levin | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Yoaz Hendel | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ayelet Shaked | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Israel Katz | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Moshe Feiglin | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Nir Barkat | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Yair Lapid | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Yossi Cohen | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person G | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person H | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person I | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person J | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person K | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person L | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person M | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person N | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person O | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders predominantly anticipate Gadi Eizenkot (52%) will be the next Prime Minister, propelled by his Yashar party's strong showing in recent polls and his emergence as a preferred candidate. Benjamin Netanyahu (34%) faces significant headwinds from a projected coalition shortfall and policy disputes, though his bloc's unity and high-profile diplomatic engagements provide some stability amid a tight race in surveys. Coalition arithmetic, including potential Arab party involvement, is a central factor for traders, with Naftali Bennett (7%) and Avigdor Lieberman (4.9%) currently trailing due to their parties losing ground.
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Naftali BennettPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Benjamin NetanyahuTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Yair LapidTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Gadi EizenkotTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Benny GantzTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Avigdor LiebermanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Yossi CohenTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Yair GolanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Itamar Ben GvirTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Gideon Sa’arTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Yariv LevinTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Moshe FeiglinTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Ayelet ShakedTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Yoaz HendelTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Israel KatzTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Nir BarkatTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Amir OhanaTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Gilad ErdanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
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Person GTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Person HTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Person ITrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Person JTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Person KTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Person LTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Person MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Person NTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Person OTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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OtherTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 4, 2026
5. What are the potential impacts of Benjamin Netanyahu's ongoing legal trials on his political standing ahead of the October 2026 election?
| Netanyahu's Testimony Duration | 98 hearings over 18 months (as of August 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| ICC Arrest Warrant Issuance | Issued late 2024 [^] |
| Prediction Market Odds for Next PM | Gadi Eizenkot 51-52%, Benjamin Netanyahu 33-35% (early August 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
Benjamin Netanyahu's legal trials significantly polarize the electorate, impacting his standing. His ongoing legal trials significantly impact his political standing ahead of the October 2026 election, polarizing the Israeli electorate [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. These proceedings serve as a rallying point for his base, who view them as political persecution, while his opponents use them to argue he is unfit for office [^][^]. The trials are not expected to conclude before the October 2026 election, contributing to significant political and market uncertainty regarding his ability to retain his position as Prime Minister [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. As of August 2026, Netanyahu completed his testimony in his long-running corruption trial after 98 hearings spanning 18 months, having become the first sitting Israeli prime minister to testify in such a case [^][^][^][^]. While Israeli law does not require him to resign due to his indictment, the trial remains a source of intense public division, with critics arguing that remaining in power provides him a platform to challenge the judiciary and potentially influence legal outcomes [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Additional pressures, including international legal action, further weaken Netanyahu's position. His political standing faces additional pressure from several significant challenges, including the October 7, 2023, security failure, economic strain, and the fallout from the ongoing war in Gaza [^][^][^][^][^][^]. He is also facing international legal pressure, including an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued in late 2024 for alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, further complicating his international standing and domestic political position [^]. As of early August 2026, prediction markets indicate a challenging outlook for Netanyahu, with Gadi Eizenkot favored to become the next Prime Minister of Israel (polling around 51-52%), while Benjamin Netanyahu trails (around 33-35%) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
6. What polling data and key political endorsements support Gadi Eizenkot's position as a leading contender for Prime Minister in 2026?
| Gadi Eizenkot Polling | Frequently neck-and-neck or slightly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu (late July 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Eizenkot Prediction Market Odds | Approximately 50% to 52% to be next PM [^][^] |
| Netanyahu Prediction Market Odds | Approximately 35% to be next PM [^][^] |
Gadi Eizenkot is a leading candidate for Prime Minister in 2026. Polling data from late July 2026 indicates that Eizenkot, leader of the Yashar party, is a prominent contender for the role. His party is frequently projected to be the largest in the Knesset, and Eizenkot often polls neck-and-neck or slightly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu in public preference for Prime Minister [^][^][^][^]. Eizenkot's campaign centers on his independent Yashar party, launched in September 2025, and a 10-point platform focused on security, national unity, and democratic institutions [^][^][^]. This strategy positions him as the primary challenger to the current Netanyahu-led coalition [^][^][^].
Prediction markets indicate Gadi Eizenkot is likely to win the election. Platforms such as Polymarket and Marlin currently favor Gadi Eizenkot to become the next Prime Minister of Israel following the election scheduled for October 27, 2026. These markets show implied probabilities for Eizenkot ranging from approximately 50% to 52%, while Benjamin Netanyahu's market-implied probability is approximately 35% [^][^]. The provided information does not detail specific key political endorsements for Gadi Eizenkot.
7. How do Benjamin Netanyahu's and Benny Gantz's platforms and historical records on national security compare?
| Stance on Iran Nuclear Weapons | Similar hardline position [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Gantz's View on Iran Policy | No daylight with Netanyahu [^] |
| Areas of Disagreement | Tactical execution, governance, management styles [^][^][^] |
Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz share a core national security objective: preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . This shared stance is often characterized as hardline on major security matters, with Gantz explicitly stating "no daylight" exists between his and Netanyahu's positions on Iran [^]. Netanyahu's consistent platform includes maintaining open-ended security control over territories captured in 1967, rejecting Palestinian statehood proposals, and employing military responses against threats such as Hamas and Iran [^]. Historically, Netanyahu has aligned with US presidential actions targeting Iran [^][^][^][^].
Despite this fundamental agreement, Netanyahu and Gantz often differ on tactical execution, governance, and management [^] [^] [^] . Gantz has criticized Netanyahu's handling of the situation in Gaza, advocating for more decisive action and opposing financial transfers to Hamas [^][^]. Additionally, Gantz has voiced concerns regarding Netanyahu's management of the Iran nuclear dossier [^][^][^]. Politically, Benny Gantz frequently positions himself as a central-centrist alternative to Netanyahu, participating in unity government discussions and broader policy dialogues throughout his career [^].
8. What are the most viable post-election coalition scenarios for centrist leaders like Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid in 2026?
| Election Date | October 27, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Netanyahu Coalition Majority | Struggling to achieve 61 seats [^][^] |
| Opposition Bloc Polling | Mid-to-high 50s [^][^] |
The legislative elections, scheduled for October 27, 2026, are set against a backdrop of significant political deadlock in Israel. This stalemate exists primarily between the governing bloc, led by Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, and an opposition bloc now largely centered around Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party [^][^][^]. Centrist leaders Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett have forged a joint electoral alliance named Together, though this new entity faces notable competition from Eisenkot's Yashar party within the opposition spectrum [^][^].
Current polling data consistently suggests that Netanyahu's present coalition is unlikely to secure a 61-seat majority [^] [^] . The opposition bloc frequently polls in the mid-to-high 50s, often necessitating support or abstention from Arab parties to reach a governing majority [^][^]. For centrist figures like Lapid, a viable coalition within the opposition would involve forming a broad Zionist unity government, as he has explicitly rejected any partnership with Netanyahu [^]. Benny Gantz, however, maintains a more cautious stance and has faced criticism from other opposition leaders for his historical willingness to join Netanyahu-led governments [^][^].
The formation of any future government, including a centrist-led coalition, critically depends on the performance of smaller parties. Their ability to surpass the 3.25% electoral threshold is key, as is the potential role of Arab parties in forming a majority [^][^]. Furthermore, there is no prevailing consensus on the next Prime Minister, with polling currently showing a tight race between Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot [^][^].
9. What do recent approval ratings and public sentiment data indicate about Naftali Bennett's viability as a candidate for Prime Minister in 2026?
| Naftali Bennett's party polling | 13-17 seats (July 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Prediction market favorite | Gadi Eisenkot (October 27, 2026 election) [^][^] |
| Eisenkot's market probabilities | Frequently exceeds 40-50% [^][^] |
Naftali Bennett faces declining support in recent polling data. As of August 4, 2026, Naftali Bennett is an active candidate leading the Together party. However, recent polling data from July 2026 indicates declining support for him as a Prime Minister candidate. His party is polling between 13 and 17 seats, and preference for Bennett as Prime Minister is fluctuating behind other challengers like Gadi Eisenkot [^][^][^][^].
Prediction markets currently favor Gadi Eisenkot over Naftali Bennett. For the upcoming Israeli legislative election on October 27, 2026, prediction markets favor Gadi Eisenkot over both Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett, with Eisenkot's market probabilities frequently exceeding 40-50% on leading platforms [^][^]. While Benjamin Netanyahu is the incumbent Prime Minister and faces public dissatisfaction, no specific expert-curated polling or reliable prediction market data was retrieved regarding Naftali Bennett's overall viability as a prime ministerial candidate in 2026 or who the next Prime Minister of Israel will be [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Israel's next general election is formally scheduled for October 27, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . This election marks the first time since 1973 that an Israeli government will have completed a full four-year term [^]. As of August 4, 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister of Israel [^][^][^].
Current polling as of August 2026 shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar party) frequently tied at approximately 23 seats each [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Netanyahu's governing coalition polls behind the opposition [^][^]. However, the formation of a stable majority coalition remains uncertain due to the influence of smaller parties and the electoral threshold [^][^]. Prediction markets (as of August 2026) reflect this uncertainty, with both Eisenkot and Netanyahu appearing as top contenders for the next Prime Minister in various market outcomes [^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: December 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Israel's next general election is formally scheduled for October 27, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This election marks the first time since 1973 that an Israeli government will have completed a full four-year term [^] .
- Trigger: As of August 4, 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister of Israel [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Current polling as of August 2026 shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar party) frequently tied at approximately 23 seats each [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
