Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Andy Beshear to announce a Presidential run before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- No noteworthy presidential campaign announcements for 2028 have occurred by August 6, 2026. Gavin Newsom actively builds national networks, deferring his presidential decision. * Pete Buttigieg's team took strategic steps, including significant fundraising.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 11.0% | 3.7% | California Governor Newsom maintains a high national profile, frequently hinting at presidential aspirations. |
| Donald Trump | 7.3% | 2.8% | Donald Trump has already announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. |
| Kamala Harris | 11.0% | 4.6% | As Vice President, Kamala Harris is a prominent successor if President Biden does not seek re-election. |
| Hunter Biden | 3.4% | 1.2% | Despite public notoriety, he has no established political career or public office. |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 7.0% | 2.7% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a prominent progressive figure, fueling speculation for future presidential bids. |
Current Context
No major candidates have formally declared a 2028 presidential bid. As of August 6, 2026, no major political figures have formally announced a 2028 presidential campaign or filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) [^][^][^]. Some individuals, however, have filed statements of candidacy with the FEC for the 2028 presidential election; these include Dwayne Johnson (July 2026), Marie Encar Arana Arnold (February 2026), and Amanda Thompson (December 2024) [^][^][^][^].
Several potential contenders are publicly considering a presidential run. Pete Buttigieg stated he is leaning toward running, and Kamala Harris has repeatedly indicated she is thinking about a 2028 presidential bid [^][^][^]. Senator Ruben Gallego is also considering a run [^]. President Donald Trump has privately told donors he wants Vice President JD Vance to win the 2028 election, though he maintains public ambiguity regarding Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio [^][^].
Prediction markets show high volatility for potential 2028 candidates. Recent polling and prediction markets indicate significant volatility for these potential candidates [^][^][^]. Figures such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, JD Vance, and Marco Rubio frequently appear in top-tier speculative rankings [^][^][^]. Marco Rubio's odds have reportedly surged, overtaking JD Vance in some assessments [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has demonstrated minimal price movement, trading within a narrow 3-point range between 9.5% and 12.5% since its inception. The current price of 12.0% is consistent with this sideways channel and shows no clear directional trend. Price fluctuations within this band have been minor and have not been associated with any specific news events, as the market's price action appears disconnected from external developments.
The most critical technical factor is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the price chart does not reflect any transactional activity or capital commitment from participants. The price movements are likely attributable to automated market maker adjustments or unfilled bid/ask offers rather than a consensus formed through trading. This lack of volume indicates an illiquid market with no demonstrated conviction from traders.
Given the zero-volume environment, the 9.5% to 12.5% range functions as a theoretical support and resistance zone, but these levels remain untested by actual trades. The chart does not suggest a confident market sentiment but rather a lack of participant engagement. The price reflects a baseline probability estimate in a dormant market, not an actively debated forecast.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For each individual listed, a "YES" resolution is triggered if that person formally announces a presidential run. Conversely, a "NO" resolution occurs if the individual does not announce a presidential run. The deadline for any such announcement to count is December 31, 2026, and no other special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | $0.18 | $0.85 | 17% |
| Tucker Carlson | $0.14 | $0.87 | 13% |
| Gavin Newsom | $0.13 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Kamala Harris | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Pete Buttigieg | $0.10 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Mark Kelly | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Rahm Emanuel | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| J.D. Vance | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Rand Paul | $0.09 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Steve Bannon | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Donald Trump | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Candace Owens | $0.07 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.08 | $0.94 | 7% |
| George Clooney | $0.06 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | $0.08 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Matt Gaetz | $0.08 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Ted Cruz | $0.08 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Don Lemon | $0.10 | $0.93 | 6% |
| Brian Kemp | $0.08 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | $0.08 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Mark Cuban | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Raphael Warnock | $0.07 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Cory Booker | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Elon Musk | $0.04 | $0.99 | 5% |
| J.B. Pritzker | $0.07 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Josh Shapiro | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Marco Rubio | $0.05 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Ron DeSantis | $0.04 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Stephen A. Smith | $0.09 | $0.92 | 5% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Greg Abbott | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Glenn Youngkin | $0.05 | $0.95 | 4% |
| Erika Kirk | $0.05 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | $0.05 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Kristi Noem | $0.04 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Jon Ossoff | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | $0.05 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Hunter Biden | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Ivanka Trump | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Jon Stewart | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Gina Raimondo | $0.05 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Nikki Haley | $0.05 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Wes Moore | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Elise Stefanik | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Hillary Clinton | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Zohran Mamdani | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Josh Hawley | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| MrBeast | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Chelsea Clinton | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Liz Cheney | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Jared Polis | $0.03 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Kim Kardashian | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Barack Obama | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Beto O’Rourke | $0.05 | $0.98 | 1% |
| John Thune | $0.03 | $0.99 | 1% |
| LeBron James | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Phil Murphy | $0.03 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Michelle Obama | $0.02 | $0.98 | 1% |
| Tim Walz | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Oprah Winfrey | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Bernie Sanders | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Byron Donalds | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Katie Britt | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Mike Pence | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Tom Brady | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| John Fetterman | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Andrew Yang | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candace Owens | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte formally announced her candidacy for the 2028 presidential election on February 18, 2026 [^][^]. However, as of August 6, 2026, no major U.S. presidential candidates have formally declared a run for the 2028 election [^][^][^], although several high-profile figures, including Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, have openly acknowledged they are considering or 'leaning toward' a bid [^][^][^].
4. How do Gavin Newsom's and Kamala Harris's pre-campaign activities and fundraising efforts signal their respective timelines for a potential pre-2027 presidential announcement?
| Newsom Presidential Bid Decision | After 2026 midterms [^] |
|---|---|
| Harris Presidential Bid Status | "Thinking about" a 2028 bid (as of August 6, 2026) [^][^] |
| Prediction Market Probability (Early Announcement) | Generally low probabilities (often below 20-25%) for either before January 1, 2027 [^][^][^][^] |
Gavin Newsom defers a presidential decision, actively building national networks. Newsom has publicly stated he will decide on a presidential run after the 2026 midterms [^]. He is currently serving as Governor of California until January 4, 2027, and is term-limited, making him ineligible for re-election in 2026 [^][^][^]. Despite deferring his official decision, Newsom has aggressively cultivated a national fundraising and political network, raising substantial funds for state parties across the U.S., including those in early primary states [^][^][^]. Prediction markets generally assign low probabilities to Newsom formally announcing a presidential campaign before January 1, 2027, primarily due to his remaining gubernatorial term acting as a structural obstacle [^][^].
Kamala Harris considers a 2028 run while maintaining fundraising. Harris has indicated she is "thinking about" a 2028 presidential bid as of August 6, 2026, though she has not made a formal announcement [^][^]. While her current donor-facing activities appear more muted, largely focusing on midterm support and civil rights initiatives [^], Federal Election Commission filings from April 2026 for the Harris Victory Fund confirm her continued political fundraising [^]. Harris previously served as Vice President and mounted a presidential campaign in 2024 [^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets generally assign low probabilities, often below 20-25%, to Harris formally announcing a presidential campaign before January 1, 2027, citing conventional political timing [^][^][^].
5. What political developments in the Republican party, such as a formal endorsement from Donald Trump for JD Vance, could accelerate the announcement timeline for other potential GOP candidates before 2027?
| Trump's 2028 Endorsement | Not formally or publicly endorsed a successor [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump's Private Preference | Reportedly for Vice President JD Vance to donors (approximately two weeks prior to August 6, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
| Typical Campaign Launch Timing | First or second quarter of the year preceding primary elections [^][^][^][^] |
Trump has not yet formally endorsed a 2028 presidential successor. As of August 6, 2026, President Donald Trump has publicly refrained from formally endorsing a candidate for the 2028 presidential race [^]. While he reportedly expressed a private preference for Vice President JD Vance to donors approximately two weeks prior to this date [^][^][^][^], Trump has maintained public ambiguity. He frequently fosters competition by praising both Vance, his 2024 running mate [^], and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, often suggesting they could form a joint ticket for the 2028 election [^][^][^][^].
Early presidential campaign announcements before 2027 are unlikely. Prediction markets indicate a low probability for most potential candidates announcing their presidential campaigns before 2027, as historical trends show formal campaign launches typically occur in the first or second quarter of the year preceding primary elections [^][^][^][^]. Although 175 candidates had filed with the Federal Election Commission for the 2028 election as of August 2025, no noteworthy presidential campaign announcements have been identified [^]. Furthermore, the Republican Party's political focus for the second half of 2026 is significantly occupied by the midterm elections, particularly a special election to fill the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's seat, which demands immediate attention and resources from party leaders and potential candidates [^][^][^][^].
6. What concrete actions, beyond public statements, has Pete Buttigieg's political team taken in 2025-2026 that would constitute formal groundwork for a pre-2027 presidential campaign announcement?
| Leadership PAC Funds Raised | $1.6 million in first half of 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Targeted Digital Ad Launch | July 2026 [^] |
| FEC Candidacy Status | No Statement of Candidacy filed as of August 6, 2026 [^][^] |
Pete Buttigieg's team took strategic steps toward a potential presidential campaign. These actions in 2025-2026 include significant fundraising efforts through his leadership PAC, Win the Era, which raised $1.6 million in the first half of 2026, with funds allocated for acquiring donor lists [^]. In July 2026, his team initiated targeted Facebook ad campaigns, marking the first time his personal social media pages were used for advertising since his 2020 presidential bid [^]. Buttigieg has also engaged in extensive travel, campaigning in over a dozen states to build a national network of political allies, local officials, and donors [^][^][^][^].
Despite preparatory activities, formal FEC steps for a campaign are absent. Official records from the Federal Election Commission indicate that as of August 6, 2026, Pete Buttigieg has not filed a Statement of Candidacy (Form 2) for the 2028 presidential election [^]. Furthermore, he has not established a principal campaign committee for a 2028 run [^]. While he has engaged in public political activities, such as endorsing a ballot measure in Montana in May 2026, these actions do not constitute formal FEC-recognized steps towards a presidential campaign [^].
7. What does historical data from the 2016 and 2020 election cycles reveal about the average announcement date for non-incumbent presidential candidates, and how does that compare to the pre-2027 timeline?
| Average Non-Incumbent Announcement | 533 days before general election (late May of prior year) [^] |
|---|---|
| Noteworthy Announcements by June 2015 | 77% (for 2016 cycle) [^] |
| Noteworthy Announcements by June 2019 | 87% (for 2020 cycle) [^] |
Non-incumbent presidential candidates announce roughly 1.5 years before the general election. Historically, those who eventually secured their party's nomination declared their campaigns an average of 533 days prior to the general election, typically in late May of the year preceding the election year [^]. While this average aligns with approximately 1.5 years before the election, there is considerable variation, with some prominent candidates announcing their bids as early as 2.5 to 3 years in advance [^][^].
The 2016 and 2020 cycles show candidates announcing in the odd-numbered year. Across these election cycles, a consistent pattern emerged where noteworthy candidates generally completed their campaign announcements within the odd-numbered year preceding the election year [^]. For the 2016 cycle, the initial noteworthy candidate announced on March 23, 2015, and by September 6, 2015, all significant candidates had declared their intentions [^]. Specifically, 77% of noteworthy candidates had announced by June 2015 [^]. Similarly, for the 2020 cycle, major candidates announced throughout 2019, with 87% having done so by June 2019, and the final noteworthy candidate declared on November 24, 2019 [^][^].
Formal 2028 campaign announcements are anticipated throughout 2027. As of August 6, 2026, no major candidate has formally declared a run for the 2028 presidential election [^]. However, following the historical trend where announcements largely occur in the odd-numbered year prior to the election, formal campaign speeches for 2028 are widely expected to begin rolling out throughout 2027 [^][^].
8. How do the national profiles and fundraising networks of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gretchen Whitmer differ, and how might these factors influence their potential for an early (pre-2027) campaign launch?
| AOC Total Raised (since 2019) | Over $37 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Whitmer Out-of-State Donors | 31,600 in a $9.5M fundraising haul [^] |
| Presidential Announcement Outlook (before 2027) | Unlikely [^][^][^] |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez maintains a powerful, national, small-dollar fundraising network. She relies on a decentralized grassroots system that enables rapid fundraising through small-dollar donations, often bypassing traditional in-person events [^][^][^][^]. Ocasio-Cortez possesses a national profile, widely recognized, particularly among young progressive voters [^][^][^][^]. Her campaign committee has raised over $37 million since 2019 [^] and continues a robust fundraising operation, reporting millions in receipts through early 2026 [^]. As of August 6, 2026, she is actively testing her national reach and building infrastructure, positioning her as a potential 2028 presidential candidate [^][^][^][^].
Gretchen Whitmer balances in-state support with a growing national donor base. Her fundraising network has historically combined strong in-state backing with an expanding national reach, bolstered by digital tools, and her profile resonates with broader, pragmatic Democratic voters [^][^]. Whitmer notably attracted 31,600 out-of-state donors in a $9.5 million fundraising haul [^]. She is actively involved in the national political landscape, including endorsing candidates in federal races for the 2026 election cycle [^].
Neither Ocasio-Cortez nor Whitmer plans an early 2027 campaign launch. Despite their political activities, both figures have resisted formalizing a presidential campaign for 2028 as of August 6, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Whitmer had publicly stated she did not plan to run for president in 2028, although she later adjusted the definitive nature of this comment [^][^][^]. Prediction markets, as of mid-2026, show low probabilities for an official presidential announcement from either individual before January 1, 2027, which aligns with historical norms for later launch windows [^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of August 6, 2026, no noteworthy presidential campaign announcements for the 2028 U.S. presidential election have occurred [^][^]. While nearly 200 individuals have filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president in 2028, these filings do not include candidates considered to have significant or noteworthy political campaigns at this stage of the election cycle [^][^][^].
Political analysts anticipate that the typical surge in formal presidential campaign announcements for the 2028 election cycle will likely occur between the conclusion of the 2026 midterm elections and the early months of 2027 [^] [^] . - The New York Times" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. Prominent political figures including Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and Kamala Harris are widely viewed as top potential contenders for the 2028 nomination and have been making public moves, though none have officially launched a campaign as of August 2026 [^][^][^][^].
Prediction markets like Polymarket feature contracts betting on which individual will officially announce a 2028 U.S. presidential campaign before January 1, 2027 [^][^]. Media figures such as Don Lemon and Candace Owens have been cited in prediction market betting pools for potential early presidential announcements, though these represent speculative interest rather than confirmed candidacy [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: December 31, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: As of August 6, 2026, no noteworthy presidential campaign announcements for the 2028 U.S.
- Trigger: Presidential election have occurred [^] [^] .
- Trigger: While nearly 200 individuals have filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president in 2028, these filings do not include candidates considered to have significant or noteworthy political campaigns at this stage of the election cycle [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Political analysts anticipate that the typical surge in formal presidential campaign announcements for the 2028 election cycle will likely occur between the conclusion of the 2026 midterm elections and the early months of 2027 [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
