Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for the most likely outcome, Hawthorn Hawks (77.5% model vs 66.0% market), driven by their strong favorite status and historical dominance at the venue.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has exhibited significant upward momentum and extreme volatility since opening. The price began at a very low 3.0% probability but has since trended upward to a current price of 31.0%. The most notable price movement occurred on May 15, when the price spiked 20 percentage points. This was followed by a surge to 84.0% and then a sharp drop to the current level. The provided context does not offer a clear catalyst for these initial, drastic price swings, as the match itself was scheduled for May 21. This early volatility suggests a period of price discovery in a new market.
The total trading volume of 123 contracts is relatively low, indicating limited market participation. The sample data points show zero volume during the period of the most extreme price swings, which suggests that these initial changes may have been caused by a very small number of trades in an illiquid market, rather than a broad consensus. Due to this volatility, clear support and resistance levels have not yet been established, though the price appears to have found some temporary stability around the 31.0% mark after its initial chaotic movement. The wide price range, from a low of 2.0% to a high of 84.0%, underscores the market's early uncertainty. Overall market sentiment started with a very low expectation of an Adelaide win, consistent with Hawthorn being favored, but has since shifted to grant Adelaide a more significant, albeit still underdog, chance of victory.
  • Hawthorn maintains a dominant historical win rate at UTAS Stadium.
  • Hawthorn recently secured two head-to-head victories against Adelaide.
  • Adelaide is coming off a significant Round 10 victory.
  • Adelaide has a poor historical win record at UTAS Stadium.
  • Statistical models indicate Hawthorn is likely to win the match.
  • Team form, injury reports, and venue performance are key catalysts.

Current Context

Hawthorn was heavily favored in the Round 11 match against Adelaide. The AFL Round 11 match between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Adelaide Crows took place on May 21, 2026, at UTAS Stadium in Launceston [1][2][3]. Prior to the contest, betting markets priced Hawthorn as approximately 18.5 to 21.5-point favorites over Adelaide [3][4].
Both teams entered the match with recent strong performances. Leading up to the game, Adelaide showcased strong form, achieving a 68-point victory over North Melbourne in Round 10 [5][6]. Meanwhile, Hawthorn maintained a strong standing within the top four of the AFL ladder [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Hawthorn vs. Adelaide Crows - Game Summary - May 21, 2026 - ESPNespn.com
  2. 2Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Preview - Rd 11, 2026 - Insights, Tips & Predictionslegz.com.au
  3. 3Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026statsinsider.com.au
  4. 4Hawthorn v Adelaide: May 21 Betting Odds At FanDuel Sportsbooksportsbook.fanduel.com
  5. 5Crows make a statement with stunning Roos thrashingafl.com.au
  6. 6Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL Round 10 Tips - Crows cover at homebets.com.au

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 May 16, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 92.0% to 73.0%

Outcome: Hawthorn Hawks

What happened: On May 16, 2026, the Adelaide Crows and Hawthorn Hawks did not play each other [1]. Instead, the Hawthorn Hawks suffered a "stunning humbling" defeat to Melbourne (Narrm) [1], while the Adelaide Crows achieved a dominant victory over North Melbourne, making a statement with a high-scoring second quarter [2]. This stark contrast in team performance on the day of the price movement, particularly Hawthorn's significant loss, appears to be the primary driver for the 19.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market's outlook for "Hawthorn Hawks." Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant based on the available information.

📈 May 15, 2026: 89.0pp spike

Price increased from 3.0% to 92.0%

Outcome: Hawthorn Hawks

What happened: The provided web research indicates that the "Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks" match did not take place on May 15, 2026; instead, Adelaide played North Melbourne that day, and Hawthorn played Melbourne on May 16, 2026 [1][3][4]. There is no information in the available sources about any social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors on May 15, 2026, that would credibly cause an 89.0 percentage point spike for the "Hawthorn Hawks" outcome in a non-existent match. In fact, Hawthorn suffered a 39-point loss on May 16, 2026, which would typically depress prediction market prices [1][4][5][6][7]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant, and no primary driver for the reported spike is evident from the provided information.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Carlton ends tough week with Western Bulldogs scalp, Melbourne claims statement win over Hawthorn - ABC Newsabc.net.au
  2. 2Adelaide Crows Crush North Melbourne in AFL Round 10 as Fogarty Shinesibtimes.com.au
  3. 3Crows make a statement with stunning Roos thrashingafl.com.au
  4. 4Melbourne vs Hawthorn LIVE: AFL round 10 2026, scores, results, odds, stats and start time from the MCGtheage.com.au
  5. 5Demons declare their intentions with stunning humbling of Hawksafl.com.au
  6. 6Round 10 – Narrm v Hawthorn: Dominant Dees destroy hapless Hawksfootyalmanac.com.au
  7. 7AFL result 2026, Melbourne Demons defeat Hawthorn Hawks, Round 10, match report, Hawks hit 20-year low, no Barrass and Gunston, Dees MCG fortress - Australiaeuropesays.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the Hawthorn Hawks win their professional AFL game against the Adelaide Crows, originally scheduled for May 21, 2026. It resolves to "No" if the Hawthorn Hawks do not win, unless the game ends in a tie, in which case the market resolves 50/50.

The market opened on May 15, 2026, and closes either after the outcome occurs or by June 4, 2026. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with its rules; outcomes are verified from ESPN and Fox Sports. Insider trading is prohibited for specified individuals, including league/team personnel and those with material, non-public information.

Market Discussion

Prediction markets and analytical models favor Hawthorn to defeat Adelaide in their upcoming Round 11 match on May 21, 2026, with Hawthorn listed as 18.5-point favorites and odds of $1.35 [1]. Social media commentary, however, focuses on team selection and player form, noting the solid recent performance of Adelaide's Toby Murray [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026statsinsider.com.au
  2. 2AFL 2026 Round 11 - Hawks v Crows Thurs May 21st 7:30pm AEST...bigfooty.com

5. How have the Adelaide Crows and Hawthorn Hawks performed against each other in their most recent head-to-head matchups?

Most Recent Match ScoreHawthorn 101 - Adelaide 55 (September 12, 2025) [1]
Next Match DateMay 21, 2026 [2][3][4]
Next Match VenueUTAS Stadium, Launceston [2][3][4]
Hawthorn recently defeated Adelaide twice prior to May 2026. In their most recent head-to-head matchups, the Hawthorn Hawks secured two victories against the Adelaide Crows. The Hawks first defeated the Crows on June 13, 2025, with a score of 47-44 [5]. They subsequently won again on September 12, 2025, achieving a more significant victory with a score of 101-55 [1].
An upcoming match is scheduled for May 21, 2026, in Launceston. The Adelaide Crows and Hawthorn Hawks are set to play an AFL Round 11 match on this date. This game will be held at UTAS Stadium in Launceston [2][3][4]. A prediction market for this specific May 21, 2026 match is available, with its resolution rules indicating that a tie game will result in the market resolving to 50/50 [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn - Game Summary - September 12, 2025 - ESPNespn.com.au
  2. 2Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Preview - Rd 11, 2026 - Insights, Tips & Predictionslegz.com.au
  3. 3Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026statsinsider.com.au
  4. 4Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crowsblogarama.com
  5. 5Game Informationespn.com
  6. 6Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows AFL Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com

6. What statistical evidence and recent form underpins Hawthorn's status as the betting favorite for the May 21 match?

Hawthorn Betting Odds$1.35 [1]
Adelaide Betting Odds$3.25 [1]
Hawthorn Ladder Position3rd on AFL ladder [2][3]
Hawthorn is favored with strong betting odds and statistical projections. Hawthorn is positioned as the betting favorite for the May 21, 2026 match against Adelaide. Current odds list Hawthorn at $1.35, significantly lower than Adelaide's $3.25 [1]. Statistical models further reinforce this favoritism, projecting a final score of 92-73 in Hawthorn's favor, establishing them as 18.5-point favorites for the game [1].
Hawthorn's strong season record supports its favorite status. This favored status is underpinned by Hawthorn's overall performance, holding a 6-2-1 record for 26 points and currently ranking 3rd on the AFL ladder [2][3]. However, their recent form includes a Round 10 loss to Melbourne, a game where key players Tom Barrass and Jack Gunston were sidelined due to injury [4][5]. In contrast, Adelaide enters the match with considerable momentum after securing a significant 68-point victory over North Melbourne in Round 10 [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026statsinsider.com.au
  2. 2Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Preview - Rd 11, 2026 - Insights, Tips & Predictionslegz.com.au
  3. 32026 Hawthorn Football Club seasonen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Demons declare their intentions with stunning humbling of Hawksafl.com.au
  5. 5AFL result 2026, Melbourne Demons defeat Hawthorn Hawks, Round 10, match report, Hawks hit 20-year low, no Barrass and Gunston, Dees MCG fortress - Australiaeuropesays.com
  6. 6Crows make a statement with stunning Roos thrashingafl.com.au

7. What is Hawthorn's historical performance at UTAS Stadium, and how does it contrast with Adelaide's record at the venue?

Hawthorn Win Rate at UTAS Stadium73-76% (over two decades) [1][2][3]
Adelaide Win Rate at UTAS Stadium25-30% (2 wins from 8 matches as of 2025) [3][4]
Upcoming Match PredictionHawthorn favored by 18.5 points, predicted score 92-73 (May 21, 2026) [5]
Hawthorn consistently dominates UTAS Stadium, contrasting sharply with Adelaide's struggles. Over more than two decades, Hawthorn has maintained a significant win rate of approximately 73-76% at UTAS Stadium, often referring to the venue as their "second home" [1][2][3]. In stark contrast, Adelaide has faced considerable difficulties at this venue, recording a win percentage of only about 25-30%, having secured just 2 wins from 8 matches as of 2025 [3][4]. This distinct difference in historical performance clearly illustrates Hawthorn's strength and Adelaide's struggles at the venue [1][2][3][4].
Recent encounters at UTAS Stadium show mixed results but favor Hawthorn. Looking at head-to-head matches played at UTAS Stadium, Hawthorn defeated Adelaide in 2025 with a final score of 47-44. However, Adelaide claimed victory against Hawthorn in 2023, scoring 79-76 [6][7][8]. For the upcoming match scheduled for May 21, 2026, at UTAS Stadium, Hawthorn is predicted to win by 18.5 points, with a projected final score of 92-73 [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1The Hawks history at their greatest fortress of allhawthornfc.com.au
  2. 2The Hawks history at their greatest fortress of allhawthornfc.com.au
  3. 3Second home or lonely island? Your club's record in Tasmaniaafl.com.au
  4. 4List of Adelaide Football Club records and statisticsen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026statsinsider.com.au
  6. 6Head to Head Between Hawthorn and Adelaide - FinalSiren.comfinalsiren.com
  7. 7AFL: Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows • UTAS Stadium • 2025 | Austadiumsaustadiums.com
  8. 8University of Tasmania Stadium - TheSportsDB.comthesportsdb.com

8. How have betting lines and the point spread for the Crows vs. Hawks match moved since the market opened?

Hawthorn Hawks Point Spread-16.5 to -18.5 points (May 17, 2026) [1][2]
Hawthorn Hawks Moneyline Odds-286 (May 17, 2026) [1][2]
Adelaide Crows Moneyline Odds+210 to +325 (May 17, 2026) [1][2]
Hawthorn Hawks are favored against the Adelaide Crows. As of May 17, 2026, the Hawthorn Hawks are the favored team in their upcoming AFL match against the Adelaide Crows. The point spread for the Hawks currently ranges from -16.5 to -18.5 points [1][2].
Betting odds confirm Hawthorn's position as significant favorites. Moneyline odds for Hawthorn are approximately -286, while the Adelaide Crows are listed as underdogs with moneyline odds between +210 and +325 [1][2]. The available research describes these current betting lines and the point spread for this match as of May 17, 2026. However, it does not provide any information regarding the opening betting lines or any subsequent movements in either the point spread or moneyline odds since the market opened [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026statsinsider.com.au
  2. 2Crows vs. Hawks Prediction by Proven Computer Model [5/21/2026]dimers.com

9. How does Adelaide's forward line, following their high-scoring victory over North Melbourne, match up against Hawthorn's defensive unit?

Match PredictionHawthorn favored, predicted score 97-79 (6,7) [1]
Hawthorn Key DefendersJames Sicily, Josh Battle, Jarman Impey (2,3,4,5) [1]
Adelaide Offensive StrategyRethinking forward line for smaller, quicker attack vs structural balance (1) [1]
Adelaide contemplates forward line changes before facing Hawthorn's strong defense. Following a recent high-scoring victory, Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks is considering a strategic shift for the forward line, weighing options between maintaining a smaller, quicker attack and ensuring structural balance [1]. This adaptive offensive approach from Adelaide is set to challenge a formidable Hawthorn defensive unit in the upcoming match.
Hawthorn's defense features key players and strong statistical performance. Hawthorn's defensive unit for 2026 is anchored by key players such as James Sicily, Josh Battle, and Jarman Impey [2][3][4][5]. This unit has demonstrated strong performance, ranking highly in critical metrics like marks per game differential during the 2026 season [2][3][4][5].
Forecasts indicate a favorable outcome for Hawthorn in the upcoming match. The impending May 21, 2026 match at UTAS Stadium sees prediction markets and simulations projecting a victory for Hawthorn [6][7]. The forecasted scoreline for this encounter is approximately 97-79, further emphasizing Hawthorn's favored position [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Adelaide's record quarter sparks forward-line rethink - MSNmsn.com
  2. 2AFL Tables - Hawthorn - 2026 Game by Game Player Statsafltables.com
  3. 32026 Hawthorn Hawks Austrailian Rules Football Statistics on StatsCrew.comstatscrew.com
  4. 42026 Hawthorn Football Club seasonen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Hawthorn Hawks Football Club AFL Statistics Home Pagefootywire.com
  6. 6Hawthorn vs Adelaide - 2026 Round 11 AFL Match Predictionsstatsinsider.com.au
  7. 7Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Preview - Rd 11, 2026 - Insights, Tips & Predictionslegz.com.au

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction market catalysts for AFL matches typically include team form, injury reports, venue-specific performance (home-ground advantage), and player ratings [1][2][3].
These factors are processed by data-driven models to determine betting value [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 04, 2026
  • Closes: June 04, 2026
Sources (3)
  1. 1AFL Predictions Model | 2026 AFL Score Predictor | Betfair Hubbetfair.com.au
  2. 2Expert AFL 2026 predictions and picksdimers.com
  3. 3Squiggle - AFL Prediction & Analysissquiggle.com.au

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXAFLGAME-26MAY170415GWSWCE-WCE: YES (May 17, 2026)
  • KXAFLGAME-26MAY170415GWSWCE-GWS: NO (May 17, 2026)
  • KXAFLGAME-26MAY170115RICSKS-SKS: YES (May 17, 2026)
  • KXAFLGAME-26MAY170115RICSKS-RIC: NO (May 17, 2026)
  • KXAFLGAME-26MAY162310FREESS-FRE: YES (May 17, 2026)