Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans: Total Match Fours

Name: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans: Total Match Fours — market and model probability
Creator: Octagon

View on Kalshi Expiration: May 2, 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Sports Cricket

By Octagon Research. Generated by Octagon's research engine from live market data and the cited sources. Not individually reviewed unless a reviewer is named. How this report is made

Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: Over 21.5 fours at 61.3% model versus 0.0% market, suggesting a strong likelihood due to the consistent average of 32 total fours in recent matches at this venue.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This analysis covers the prediction market for the "Total Match Fours" in the Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans cricket match. The market has exhibited a clear upward trend since its inception, starting at a low probability of 1.0% and climbing to its current price of 11.0%. This represents the entire trading range observed so far. A significant movement occurred on April 28, 2026, when the price experienced a sharp 9.0 percentage point spike. Given that no specific news or external context was provided, the direct catalyst for this sudden price increase cannot be determined from the available information.

A critical observation from the chart data is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded throughout the market's history, the price movements are not the result of participant activity or transactions. This lack of volume indicates there is no market conviction behind the current price. The price changes are likely attributable to automated market maker adjustments or shifts in the order book rather than an exchange of contracts between traders. Consequently, traditional technical indicators like support and resistance levels have not been established.

The upward price trajectory suggests a nascent positive sentiment, implying a growing expectation for a higher number of fours in the match. However, this sentiment is purely theoretical at this stage. Without any trading volume to validate the price, the market is highly illiquid, and the current 11.0% probability does not reflect a consensus formed through actual trading. It simply represents the price at which a contract could be traded, not one that has been actively discovered by the market.

Narendra Modi Stadium averages 32 total fours in recent IPL matches.
This venue's fours average is slightly lower than typical IPL matches.
Outcomes significantly above 35 total fours are less probable at this venue.
Outcomes far exceeding 40 total fours are considerably less likely here.
Detailed fours per ball statistics were largely unavailable from research sources.
The market has experienced significant upward price movements recently.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Over 21.5 fours

📈 April 28, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 11.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Over 33.5 fours

📈 April 27, 2026: 45.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 46.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the combined total fours hit by both teams in the Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans IPL match, originally scheduled for April 30, 2026, is above 33.5; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market closes after the outcome occurs, or by May 2, 2026, 10:00am EDT. Special conditions include resolution to fair market price for pre-match cancellation, abandonment without an official result, or delays exceeding 48 hours, while shortened matches with an official result resolve based on actual recorded statistics.

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. What Was the Fours Per Ball Rate at Narendra Modi Stadium?

Combined Fours Per Ball (April 28, 2024 match)	Approximately 0.113 ^[1]
Data for Last 5 Tournament Matches	Not available due to insufficient granular data ^[1]
Comprehensive Career Stats at Narendra Modi Stadium	Not available ^[1]

Detailed 'fours per ball faced' statistics were largely unavailable from sources. Web research indicated that comprehensive aggregate statistics for 'fours per ball faced' across the last five tournament matches for specific batsmen, and comprehensive career statistics specifically at the Narendra Modi Stadium, were not fully accessible within the provided sources. However, data from a recent match played at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad could be utilized for relevant players who batted ^[1].

One recent match offered a calculable combined fours-per-ball rate. For the Gujarat Titans vs. Royal Challengers Bengaluru match on April 28, 2024, held in Ahmedabad, the projected top four batsmen from both teams who participated achieved a combined rate of approximately 0.113 fours per ball faced. This aggregate figure was derived from a total of 16 fours hit from 141 balls faced by six batsmen in that specific fixture: Virat Kohli contributed 6 fours from 44 balls, Faf du Plessis 0 fours from 4 balls, Rajat Patidar 2 fours from 23 balls, Shubman Gill 0 fours from 19 balls, Wriddhiman Saha 0 fours from 2 balls, and Sai Sudharsan 8 fours from 49 balls. Glenn Maxwell and David Miller did not bat in this particular match ^[1].

Comprehensive comparison of these stats proved unfeasible from available data. The provided sources lacked the granular data required to compute the combined 'fours per ball faced' rate for all eight specified batsmen over their last five tournament matches. Similarly, detailed career statistics for each player, specifying fours and balls faced exclusively at the Narendra Modi Stadium, were not available to facilitate the requested direct comparative analysis ^[1].

Sources (1)

1GT vs RCB Cricket Scorecard, 45th Match at Ahmedabad, April 28, 2024espncricinfo.com

6. How Many Fours Are Scored in IPL Matches at Narendra Modi Stadium?

Average Total Fours per Match	32 fours ^[1]
Powerplay Fours (GT vs RR Match)	14 fours ^[2]
Powerplay Fours Percentage (GT vs RR Match)	43.75% ^[2]

An analysis of recent IPL matches indicates a consistent average of 32 total fours. An examination of the three most recent Indian Premier League matches played at the Narendra Modi Stadium, for which detailed data was available, revealed a consistent trend in total fours scored. Across the Gujarat Titans versus Mumbai Indians (Match 30), Gujarat Titans versus Kolkata Knight Riders (Match 25), and Gujarat Titans versus Rajasthan Royals (Match 9) games, each match recorded precisely 32 fours ^[1]. This consistent finding results in an average of 32 total fours per match based on the available data from these three encounters.

Specific powerplay fours data was limited to one match. Detailed ball-by-ball data required to precisely count fours hit during the powerplay overs (1-6) was explicitly available for only one of these encounters, the Gujarat Titans versus Rajasthan Royals match (Match 9) ^[2]. In this particular game, a total of 14 fours were scored during the powerplay, with both the Gujarat Titans and Rajasthan Royals contributing 7 fours each ^[2]. These 14 fours represented 43.75% of the 32 total fours hit in that specific match ^[2]. Detailed powerplay fours data for the other two matches (GT vs MI and GT vs KKR) was not found in the provided sources ^[1].

Sources (2)

7. Can RCB and GT Bowling Attacks Be Compared by Fours Conceded Per Over?

Bowling Attack Comparison	Cannot be definitively performed due to data limitations ^[1]
Rashid Khan Specific Data	Fours conceded and overs bowled not explicitly detailed ^[2]
Mohammed Siraj Specific Data	Fours conceded and overs bowled not explicitly detailed ^[3]

Definitive comparison of bowling attacks on fours conceded is not possible. A comprehensive comparison of the primary bowling attacks for Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) and Gujarat Titans (GT) regarding fours conceded per over in their last three matches cannot be definitively performed. This is because the available research does not provide the necessary data points to identify the "top 5 bowlers by overs bowled this season" for either team. Furthermore, it does not detail the overs bowled and fours conceded by all relevant bowlers across their last three matches to allow for such a comparative analysis ^[1].

Individual bowler data for key players remains insufficient for calculation. While sources reference "Rashid Khan's statistics of IPL 2026 - Gujarat Titans (GT)" ^[2] and "Mohammed Siraj — IPL 2026 player stats" ^[3], their descriptions do not explicitly detail the specific number of fours conceded and overs bowled by these players. This data gap applies to both their last three matches and the season overall, which prevents the calculation of a precise "fours per over" rate. It should also be noted that some source descriptions incorrectly associate Mohammed Siraj with Gujarat Titans ^[4], despite him being a Royal Challengers Bengaluru player.

Sources (4)

8. What is the boundary percentage against spin for RCB and GT middle-order batsmen?

Specific boundary data vs spin	Not available for RCB or GT middle-order batsmen this season ^[1]
Gujarat Titans middle order performance	Described as "undercooked and underwhelming" in IPL 2026 ^[1]
Rajat Patidar (RCB) batting form	Demonstrated strong form, including a fast IPL fifty and high strike rate ^[2]

The available web research does not provide specific data on the boundary percentage against spin bowling this season for individual middle-order batsmen (batting positions 4-6) from Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) or Gujarat Titans (GT). While the research offers general insights into player and team performance, the precise granular statistics required to directly answer this question are not present in the provided sources.

General observations indicate contrasting middle-order performances this season. The Gujarat Titans' middle order in IPL 2026 has been characterized as "undercooked and underwhelming" ^[1]. In contrast, Royal Challengers Bengaluru's middle-order batsman, Rajat Patidar, has demonstrated strong batting form. His achievements include scoring his fastest IPL fifty and maintaining a high strike rate, even contributing a significant half-century in a match where an opposing bowling attack was "demolished" ^[2]. However, these performance indicators remain general and do not encompass the specific boundary percentage against spin bowling for either player or the teams' middle orders.

Sources (2)

9. Was 'Total Match Fours' line movement found for RCB vs GT match?

'Total Match Fours' Line Data	Not available from major international sportsbooks ^[1]
Line Movement Tracking	No data found for final 12 hours before match ^[1]
Available Research Scope	General betting odds, predictions, live scores, and reports ^[1]

Specific betting line data was unavailable from the research. The research did not provide information regarding the opening 'Total Match Fours' line set by major international sportsbooks, such as Bet365 or Pinnacle, for the Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans match on April 30, 2026. Without this initial line data, it is not possible to detail its movement in the final 12 hours before the match, which would otherwise indicate where sharp money might have been flowing.

Research sources lacked specific prop bet line movement details. The available sources primarily offered general betting odds and match predictions ^[1], live match scores and reports ^[2], match statistics from an earlier fixture ^[3], and updates on the points table ^[4]. These sources did not provide the granular data required for specific prop bets like 'Total Match Fours', nor did they track the real-time movement of these lines from particular sportsbooks ^[1].

Therefore, requested analysis of betting lines is not possible. Consequently, based on the provided research, it is not possible to ascertain the opening 'Total Match Fours' line or to analyze its movement to determine sharp money indicators for the RCB vs GT match on April 30, 2026. The information required for such an analysis was not present in the given web research results ^[1].