Series Winner: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks

The special teams units displayed shifting effectiveness throughout the 2026 playoff series. The Golden Knights' penalty kill entered the series with exceptional performance, maintaining a highly effective percentage of 93.8% and being recognized as among the best in the postseason ^[1][2][3]. This strong defensive stand was particularly notable against the Ducks, whose man-advantage unit had previously shown significant potency, converting 50.0% (8-for-16) in their preceding series against Edmonton ^[1][3].

Vegas's penalty kill maintained its effectiveness through early series games. The Golden Knights successfully suppressed Anaheim's power play, achieving a remarkable run of 21 consecutive kills before Game 4 ^[2][6][4][5]. A prime example occurred in Game 2 on May 6, 2026, when Anaheim failed to score on all five of their power-play opportunities, including a crucial five-on-three chance ^[7][6].

Anaheim's power play decisively broke through in a pivotal Game 4. On May 10, 2026, the Ducks scored two power-play goals, including one by Killorn, to secure a 4-3 victory and even the series at 2-2 ^[2][6][4][5]. Concurrently, the Golden Knights' power play contributed offensively, converting 1-for-4 (25.0%) in Game 2 ^[7][6] and adding another power-play goal by Dorofeyev in Game 4 ^[4][5].

The Vegas Golden Knights are strongly favored for both Game 6 and the series. Based on the latest moneyline odds from DraftKings, the Golden Knights are currently predicted to win Game 6 against the Anaheim Ducks ^[1]. Beyond the individual game, they are also positioned as favorites to secure victory in the entire 2026 second-round series ^[2][3].

Opening odds clearly position Vegas as the series favorite. In the 2026 second-round series winner market, DraftKings' initial lines designated the Vegas Golden Knights as -190 favorites, with the Anaheim Ducks listed as +160 underdogs ^[2][3]. This market valuation strongly implies that Vegas is expected to win the series, aligning with the prediction market for 'Series Winner: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks (VGK vs ANA R2 - 2026)' ^[2][3].

The Vegas Golden Knights face significant injury challenges, particularly on defense and at captain. Defenseman Jeremy Lauzon has been ruled out for the entirety of their second-round series against the Anaheim Ducks due to an undisclosed injury, a decision announced on May 4, 2026 ^[1][2]. Additionally, captain Mark Stone attempted to return for Game 3 but was unable to continue playing ^[5][1][6][7]. Before his injury, Stone had been a key contributor, recording three goals and four assists in nine playoff games, following a regular season performance of 73 points in 60 games ^[5][6].

Anaheim Ducks are navigating the series with a substantial list of injured players. Goaltender Petr Mrazek has been ruled out for the remainder of the 2025-26 season after undergoing hip surgery ^[3][4]. Center Jansen Harkins is expected to miss approximately four weeks while recovering from hand surgery ^[3]. Captain Radko Gudas has been managing a lower-body injury since Game 1 of the first round on April 20, 2026 ^[8][9]. Gudas did not participate in Game 4 of the series against Vegas on May 11, despite initially being considered a "game-time decision" ^[3][9].

Recent games have added more players to the Ducks' injury report. Defenseman Drew Helleson was ruled out for Game 5 on May 12, 2026, due to an undisclosed injury ^[4]. On the same date, forward Ryan Poehling did not return to Game 5 after sustaining an upper-body injury ^[4].

Public sources offer comprehensive advanced 5-on-5 hockey metrics. Several online resources provide advanced 5-on-5 hockey metrics essential for in-depth analysis of series such as the Golden Knights vs. Ducks 2026. Key resources include Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey, and Hockey-Reference.com, which collectively offer a wealth of individual player and team statistical data ^{[1][2][9][10][11][6]}. Natural Stat Trick is particularly noted for its comprehensive data, including team point projections and standings for future seasons like the 2025-2026 NHL season, which can be valuable for pre-series analysis. It also provides detailed Corsi and Fenwick data, as well as expected goals ^{[1][8][2][12][10]}. Evolving-Hockey serves as another extensive source for advanced NHL statistics, featuring metrics such as Corsi (CF/CA) and Expected Goals (xGF/xGA), complete with historical data and various analytical tools ^[9][10][2]. Additionally, Hockey-Reference.com functions as a central hub for advanced NHL statistics, providing Corsi (EV), Fenwick (EV), and other skater advanced statistics ^[1][11][6].

Key advanced metrics include Corsi For % and Expected Goals For %. Two commonly used advanced metrics for evaluating team performance are Corsi For % (CF%) and Expected Goals For % (xGF%). Corsi For % (CF%) is defined as the percentage of all shot attempts—including shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots—taken by a team at even strength ^{[3][4][5][6][2]}. Expected Goals For % (xGF%) measures a team's share of total expected goals based on the quality of scoring chances created; this metric factors in elements such as shot location and type to estimate the likelihood of a shot becoming a goal ^{[7][8][2][10]}.

The Anaheim Ducks possess a significant home-ice advantage at the Honda Center. This is demonstrated by their strong 2025–26 regular-season home record of 24–13–4 ^[1]. This home strength is notably amplified in critical playoff scenarios, as evidenced by their improved 7–0 record on home ice in Game 6 opportunities during their 2026 first-round series against Edmonton ^[2]. Historically, the franchise also boasts a strong performance in series-clinching games played at home, holding a record of 12–4, which further highlights their elevated performance level in high-stakes home games ^[2].

The Honda Center's atmosphere has already impacted the current series. Anaheim successfully leveraged this advantage to secure a 4–3 victory in Game 4 against the Vegas Golden Knights ^[3]. With the Golden Knights currently leading the series 3–2 after Game 5, the upcoming Game 6 at Anaheim's Honda Center on May 14, 2026, presents another crucial opportunity for the Ducks to capitalize on their established home strength ^[4][5].

The Ducks' strong home performance record impacts their win probability. The team's record at the Honda Center, particularly in Game 6-type situations, is considered a significant factor in estimating their win probability for Game 6 ^[6][7]. This probability, in turn, plays a crucial role in influencing the "Series Winner" market ^[6][7].

Exceptional or poor goaltending significantly impacts market sentiment ^[1][2][3]. Elite goaltending, demonstrated through high-danger save percentage and goals saved above expected, is a major asset ^[1]. Conversely, inconsistent goaltending or a goalie struggling under pressure can be a significant liability ^[1]. Strong special teams, including high-performing power play and penalty kill units, are crucial, as one or two special teams goals can completely swing momentum and the outcome of a series ^[1][3]. Depth scoring, with contributions from third lines, defensemen, and role players, becomes critical when top lines are neutralized ^[1]. Lack of depth scoring or weak special teams can hinder a team's chances ^[1][3].

Effective in-series coaching adjustments to defensive structures, matchups, and systems can impact a team's performance and market perception ^[1]. Teams that can adapt defensively, limit high-quality chances, and execute their system under pressure are positioned for success ^[1]. Physicality and endurance are important for withstanding the increased intensity of playoff hockey ^[3]. Psychological resilience, allowing teams to stay calm under pressure and avoid emotional swings, tends to lead to better performance ^[3]. In contrast, poor defensive play or structure, mental fragility, injury troubles, or a lack of discipline (taking too many penalties) can severely hamper a team's chances ^[1][3].

Key series milestones also serve as catalysts for market probability shifts. Winning Game 1 on home ice significantly increases series win probability ^[4]. A team taking a 3-1 lead has a very high probability of winning the series ^[4]. Furthermore, a team with a 3-0 lead has a 98.1% series win rate ^[4]. Road momentum heading into a Game 7 appears to be a strong predictor ^[4].