Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Maxx Crosby to play for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. The market's resolution rule, favoring the Raiders if no new team is officially joined by August 31, 2026, likely contributes to this consensus.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has exhibited no price movement, holding static at a 0.4% probability for a "YES" outcome since its inception. The price chart is a flat line, with no spikes, drops, or identifiable trends. This price stasis is a direct result of market inactivity. Total volume traded is zero contracts, indicating a complete absence of participation and conviction from traders.

The market's dormant state and near-zero probability pricing are consistent with available external information. Reports from early August 2026 place Maxx Crosby at the Las Vegas Raiders' training camp. The market price reflects a strong consensus that he will remain with the Raiders, treating the possibility of a move to another team in 2026 as a negligible risk. The lack of trading volume suggests there is no speculative interest or counter-information to challenge this view.

Given the zero-volume environment, standard technical indicators such as support and resistance levels are not meaningful. The chart does not reflect price discovery or a contested viewpoint. Instead, the market's inactivity itself is the primary signal, conveying a settled and unambiguous sentiment that Crosby's team affiliation for the period in question is not in doubt.

Maxx Crosby will likely remain with the Raiders due to his contract and the August 31 market deadline.
Maxx Crosby continues with the Raiders after a proposed March 2026 trade fell through.
Dallas Cowboys are a longshot; no imminent trade is reported before the August 31 deadline.

Current Context

Reports diverge on Maxx Crosby's team affiliation as of August 6, 2026. One set of reports indicates Crosby is an active player for the Las Vegas Raiders, participating in their 2026 training camp following knee surgery ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. This aligns with information stating a March 2026 trade to the Baltimore Ravens was agreed upon but fell through due to a failed physical, resulting in Crosby remaining with the Raiders ^[6]^[3]^[7]. Conversely, other sources state Maxx Crosby was traded from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Baltimore Ravens during the March 2026 NFL free agency period ^[8], and is a member of the Baltimore Ravens roster for the 2026 NFL season as of August 6, 2026 ^[9]^[8]^[10].

Maxx Crosby is under contract with the Las Vegas Raiders through the 2029 season. His 2026 contract specifies a base salary of $30 million and an approximate total cap hit of $35.79 million ^[11]^[12]^[13]^[14]. While Crosby is expected to start the 2026 season with the Raiders ^[15], trade speculation persists. Analysts suggest that if the Raiders underperform, trade discussions could resurface near the November 2026 NFL trade deadline ^[15]^[16]^[17]^[18].

Sources (18)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 July 28, 2026: 9.3pp spike

Price increased from 0.7% to 10.0%

Outcome: Dallas Cowboys

What happened: The provided research does not contain information about a specific event or announcement on July 28, 2026, that would explain the 9.3 percentage point spike for Maxx Crosby playing for the Dallas Cowboys in 2026. While the Dallas Cowboys have frequently been linked to Maxx Crosby in media reports and engaged in trade discussions ^[1]^[2]^[3], the available sources do not identify a new, specific development on that date. As of early August 2026, Crosby remains under contract and is participating in training camp with the Las Vegas Raiders ^[4]^[5]^[6]. Based on the provided information, social media activity was not identifiable as a primary driver.

Sources (6)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to the next team Maxx Crosby officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; an official signing can trigger immediate resolution. A specific team's option resolves "Yes" if he joins that team, while all other options resolve "No".

If he does not officially join a new team, "Las Vegas Raiders" resolves "Yes". The "Other" option resolves "Yes" if he joins an unlisted team, is released and not signed, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by the deadline. Transfers between senior and reserve/affiliate teams are not considered, and resolution relies on official team announcements or credible media reports.

Market Discussion

Traders overwhelmingly expect Maxx Crosby to remain with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026, evidenced by the 83% probability, due to his substantial contract extension through 2027 with significant cap and dead-cap implications, and his stated desire to stay. Arguments for him moving, primarily to the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles, are based on reported offseason interest, but these prospects are seen as low given the financial hurdles and a collapsed trade to the Ravens over medical concerns. The consensus is that only a "blockbuster offer" could overcome the existing financial and personal commitments keeping him in Las Vegas.

5. Trader Dashboard

Trust profile

Event quality63

Healthy

6. Which NFL teams present the most realistic trade destinations for Maxx Crosby based on 2026 salary cap space and roster needs?

Current Team (2026 season)	Las Vegas Raiders (as of August 6, 2026) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
2026 Salary Cap Hit	$35,791,250 ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Potential Trade Destinations	Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears ^[4]^[5]

Maxx Crosby's 2026 contract presents a significant cap challenge for any trade suitor. He is under contract with the Las Vegas Raiders for the 2026 season, carrying a substantial salary cap hit of $35,791,250 as of August 6, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Any team considering acquiring Crosby would need to manage this large financial commitment, likely requiring contract restructures or clearing existing cap space ^[1]^[5]. The specific realism of team fits based on their 2026 salary cap space or detailed roster needs is not elaborated in the available information.

Despite being under contract, trade speculation around Maxx Crosby continues to circulate. An earlier proposed trade involving Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens during the 2026 offseason was ultimately voided due to a failed physical ^[6]^[4]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]. Moving into the 2026 season, the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears have been identified as potential landing spots for the defensive end ^[4]^[5]. The Cowboys previously extended a significant offer for Crosby, while the Bears are noted as an emerging contender, possessing sufficient draft capital to potentially facilitate a trade ^[4]^[5].

Sources (11)

7. What were the specific medical reasons for Maxx Crosby's failed physical with the Baltimore Ravens in March 2026, and how do they affect his current trade value?

Reason for Failed Physical	Concerns regarding a degenerative issue in his left knee ^[1]
Prior Injury and Surgery	Torn meniscus in October 2025, followed by surgery in January 2026 ^[2]^[1]
Current Team Status	Remains with the Las Vegas Raiders and is not actively seeking a trade as of August 2026 ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]

Maxx Crosby's trade failed due to a left knee issue. Maxx Crosby's proposed trade to the Baltimore Ravens in March 2026 was canceled after he failed his physical ^[1]. The failure was attributed to concerns about a degenerative issue in his left knee, which raised questions about his long-term durability ^[1]. This knee issue followed surgery in January 2026 to repair a torn meniscus, an injury Crosby sustained in October 2025 and played through for much of that season ^[2]^[1]. While these details have been reported, specific medical information regarding the failed physical has not been publicly disclosed ^[5]^[6]. The Baltimore Ravens consequently canceled the trade due to these significant health concerns ^[1]^[5]^[6].

Crosby remains with the Raiders, focused on recovery. As of August 2026, Maxx Crosby remains a player for the Las Vegas Raiders and is not actively pursuing a trade ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. He has publicly committed to the Raiders, stating that the canceled trade is "water under the bridge," and has been focusing on his recovery with the expectation of being ready for training camp ^[7]^[8]^[3]. The immediate effect of the failed physical on his trade status is the cancellation of the proposed trade and his continued tenure with the Raiders, with no current intent to pursue a new trade.

Sources (8)

8. How does the potential 2026 trade compensation for Maxx Crosby compare to historical trades for elite defensive ends like Khalil Mack and Von Miller?

Maxx Crosby Canceled Trade Offer	Two first-round draft picks (March 2026 ^[1])
Khalil Mack Trade Compensation	Two first-round picks (2018 ^[2])
Von Miller Trade Compensation	2nd and 3rd round pick (2021 ^[3])

A proposed 2026 trade for Maxx Crosby mirrored historical elite defensive end compensation. In March 2026, a potential deal would have sent Maxx Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for two first-round draft picks, though this trade was ultimately canceled due to concerns about Crosby's knee injury ^[1]. This proposed compensation is consistent with the 2018 trade that moved Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears, which also included two first-round picks among other selections ^[2].

Crosby's potential compensation significantly exceeded Von Miller's historical trade value. Historically, the suggested compensation for Crosby was notably higher than the 2021 trade for Von Miller, who was acquired for a second and third-round pick ^[3]. Maxx Crosby's market value was further solidified by a $94 million contract extension signed during the 2025 offseason, establishing him as an elite defensive end prior to his proposed 2026 trade ^[4]. Additionally, the market for top-tier edge rushers surged in 2025-2026, with players like Micah Parsons securing contracts averaging $47 million per year, setting a high benchmark for defensive talent ^[5].

Maxx Crosby's proposed trade valuation reflected his elite market standing. Therefore, the canceled 2026 trade offer for Maxx Crosby, involving two first-round picks, was comparable to Khalil Mack's historical compensation ^[1]^[2] and surpassed that of Von Miller ^[3]. However, the specific compensation for the actual trade of Maxx Crosby on March 6, 2026, is not detailed in the available information ^[6].

Sources (6)

9. What performance data is available from the Raiders' 2026 training camp and preseason to assess Maxx Crosby's recovery from his recent knee surgery?

Trade Date	March 6, 2026 (traded from Las Vegas Raiders to Baltimore Ravens) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Team as of August 6, 2026	Baltimore Ravens ^[1]
Return to Practice (Raiders' 2026 training camp)	Late July (full-team practice, no restrictions) ^[5]^[6]^[7]

Maxx Crosby's recovery from knee surgery showed promising signs for 2026. His surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, confirmed in March 2026 that Crosby's rehabilitation from a significant meniscus tear was progressing on track for a full return to elite performance ^[8]. Reports from late July 2026 indicated Crosby was participating in the Raiders' training camp practices without restrictions, demonstrating elite pass rushing and run stopping capabilities ^[5]^[6]^[7].

Despite practice reports, Crosby was traded to the Baltimore Ravens. Maxx Crosby was traded from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Baltimore Ravens on March 6, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Therefore, as of August 6, 2026, Maxx Crosby was officially a member of the Baltimore Ravens roster, not the Las Vegas Raiders ^[1].

Sources (8)

10. What on-field performance metrics for the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half of the 2026 season could trigger a Maxx Crosby trade before the November deadline?

Potential Trade Trigger Record	1-5 or 2-6 (first half of 2026 season) ^[1]^[2]
Projected 2026 Team Rating	8.76 (26th) ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
2025 Season Record	3-14 ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]

Las Vegas Raiders' poor start could trigger a Maxx Crosby trade. NFL insider Adam Schefter has indicated that a Maxx Crosby trade before the November 2026 deadline could be initiated if the Las Vegas Raiders achieve a challenging record in the first half of the season, specifically a 1-5 or 2-6 start ^[1]^[2]. These poor on-field results would likely prompt the team to consider moving their valuable asset.

Overall team performance, not individual decline, would drive a trade. Key metrics that would likely lead to such a trade include the team's inability to compete effectively, a poor overall standing within the league, or limited development shown by key rookie players ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. This consideration is rooted in the Raiders' challenging organizational outlook, as evidenced by a projected 2026 team rating of 8.76, placing them 26th in the league, and coming off a 3-14 record in the 2025 season ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. Given Crosby's status as a valuable asset, any decision to trade him would be primarily influenced by the team's collective performance rather than any individual decline in his play ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6].

Sources (6)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Maxx Crosby is a member of the Las Vegas Raiders and is expected to play for them in the 2026 season ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. He remains under contract with the Raiders for the 2026 season, with a base salary of $30 million and a cap hit of $35.79 million ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8].

A proposed trade involving Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens was nullified in March 2026 after he failed a medical examination, resulting in his return to the Raiders ^[9]^[10]. Crosby has been recovering from offseason knee surgery and is expected to be ready for the early portion of the 2026 training camp ^[1]^[11]^[4].

While some reports indicate ongoing external interest in a potential trade, Raiders owner Mark Davis has publicly stated that he does not want to trade Crosby ^[11]^[3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Closes: September 01, 2026

Sources (11)

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Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

📈 July 28, 2026: 9.3pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

5. Trader Dashboard

6. Which NFL teams present the most realistic trade destinations for Maxx Crosby based on 2026 salary cap space and roster needs?

7. What were the specific medical reasons for Maxx Crosby's failed physical with the Baltimore Ravens in March 2026, and how do they affect his current trade value?

8. How does the potential 2026 trade compensation for Maxx Crosby compare to historical trades for elite defensive ends like Khalil Mack and Von Miller?

9. What performance data is available from the Raiders' 2026 training camp and preseason to assess Maxx Crosby's recovery from his recent knee surgery?

10. What on-field performance metrics for the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half of the 2026 season could trigger a Maxx Crosby trade before the November deadline?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

📈 July 28, 2026: 9.3pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company