Topic tracker · Mentions
Bernie says
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (0 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Bernie says markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 19, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will Bernie say during his Detroit rally? | August 2, 2026 | 0.2% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Bernie say during his NYC Rally? | April 13, 2026 | 3.3% vs 6.0% | Report → |
| What will Bernie say during his Durham rally? | February 14, 2026 | 89.0% vs 89.0% | Report → |
