Topic tracker · Crypto
BTC Up or Down 15m
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new BTC Up or Down 15m markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated October 29, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET | October 29, 2026 | 45.0% vs 49.0% | Report → |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET | October 29, 2026 | 67.4% vs 77.0% | Report → |
