Topic tracker · Mentions
Fed mention
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Fed mention markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated April 12, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will Powell say during his April press conference? | April 30, 2026 | 6.6% vs 14.0% | Report → |
| What will Powell say during his March press conference? | March 19, 2026 | 42.5% vs 42.5% | Report → |
