Above 12%
Market Model 26.0% 27.6%
Above 8%
Market Model 69.0% 62.1%
Topic tracker · Financials
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (2 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Google KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 29, 2026