Decrease 0-0.99%
Market Model 48.0% 38.0%
Increase 0.01-0.99%
Market Model 40.0% 20.0%
Topic tracker · Politics
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (2 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Mamdani population change in NYC markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated April 29, 2026