LeBron James: Retirement Kalshi
Before the 2027-28 season
Market Model 72.0% 54.0%
Before the 2028-29 season
Market Model 79.0% 63.0%
Topic tracker · Sports
NBA Retirement
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 7 so far (7 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new NBA Retirement markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated June 7, 2026
Live markets
Before the 2027-28 season
Market Model 49.0% 28.2%
Before the 2026-27 season
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Draymond Green: Retirement Kalshi
Before the 2026-27 season
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Before the 2028-29 season
Market Model 64.0% 45.3%
Kevin Durant: Retirement Kalshi
Before the 2027-28 season
Market Model 9.0% 3.2%
Before the 2026-27 season
Market Model 0.0% 0.2%
Kawhi Leonard: Retirement Kalshi
Before the 2027-28 season
Market Model 10.0% 10.4%
Before the 2026-27 season
Market Model 0.0% 0.7%
Steph Curry: Retirement Kalshi
Before the 2027-28 season
Market Model 10.0% 3.0%
Before the 2026-27 season
Market Model 0.0% 1.0%
Kyrie Irving: Retirement Kalshi
Before the 2027-28 season
Market Model 8.0% 4.0%
Before the 2026-27 season
Market Model 0.0% 0.3%
