Ethan Holliday: Debut Date Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2029
Market Model 52.0% 39.4%
Before Aug 1, 2030
Market Model 97.0% 94.8%
Topic tracker · Sports
Pro Baseball Debut
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (5 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Pro Baseball Debut markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated June 26, 2026
Live markets
Thomas White: Debut Date Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2027
Market Model 85.0% 68.6%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 53.0% 42.4%
Walker Jenkins: Debut Date Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 85.0% 74.7%
Before Nov 1, 2027
Market Model 81.0% 75.0%
Kade Anderson: Debut Date Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 64.0% 61.1%
Before Aug 1, 2028
Market Model 84.0% 83.5%
Jesús Made: Debut Date Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 0.0% 8.0%
Before Aug 1, 2027
Market Model 0.0% 11.0%
