Above 15000
Market Model 74.0% 64.8%
Above 16000
Market Model 62.0% 52.7%
Topic tracker · Financials
Rivian KPI
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (1 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Rivian KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated August 6, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q2 | July 2, 2026 | — | Report → |
| Rivian Automotive Inc. total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026 | November 27, 2026 | 20.0% vs 0.0% | Report → |
